Sunday, December 26, 2004

A meteor to track - Torino Level 4

Impact Probability

I came across an obscure reference to this asteroid. As of 12/23 it has a 1/45 chance of impact.
The Orbit of 2004 MN4
Don Yeomans, Steve Chesley and Paul Chodas
NASA's Near Earth Object Program Office
December 23, 2004

A recently rediscovered 400-meter Near-Earth Asteroid (NEA) is predicted to pass near the Earth on 13 April 2029...

December 24 Update: 2004 MN4 is now being tracked very carefully by many astronomers around the world, and we continue to update our risk analysis for this object. Today's impact monitoring results indicate that the impact probability for April 13, 2029 has risen to about 1.6%, which for an object of this size corresponds to a rating of 4 on the ten-point Torino Scale...

The next level on the Torino scale would require governmental contingency planning.

Update 1/05: It's a clear miss!

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