It's hard to imagine how very simple much of our technology environment was in the 1980s. Much of what we interacted with was still understandable in simple mechanical terms. Early Mac OS Classic was vastly easier to understand and work with than anything we can image now; the closest analogy would be year two of the iPhone.
But even 8 years ago only a small slice of humanity could manage their technology environment (Jakob Nielsen from November 2016, thanks Matt Panaro for sharing.)
... The data was collected from 2011–2015 in 33 countries and was published in 2016 by the OECD... In total, 215,942 people were tested, with at least 5,000 participants in most countries...
... research aimed to test the [job-related including technology] skills of people aged 16–65 ...
...participants were asked to perform 14 computer-based tasks. Instead of using live websites, the participants attempted the tasks on simulated software on the test facilitator’s computer. This allowed the researchers to make sure that all participants were confronted with the same level of difficulty across the years and enabled controlled translations of the user interfaces into each country’s local language ..
The tasks they chose were typical business worker tasks. The kinds of tasks that had lots of training back in the 90s. They never tried anything as tough as the HR software my legally disabled son has to work with at his minimum wage hourly job (we do it for him obviously).
Not all OECD members are equally wealthy but Nielsen reproduces a country-specific bar chart from the study. US numbers are not hugely different from the OECD averages; I've added US numbers based on squinting at the chart (numbers are done as levels, so as we move up the prior skills are assumed):
26% could not use a computer at all (US 20%)
14% could delete an email (US 15%)
29% could manage "reply all" or "Find all emails from John Smith" (US 35%)
5% could do "You want to know what percentage of the emails sent by John Smith last month were about sustainability." (US 5%)
They did not test the ability to maintain multiple malware-free home computers, iPhones, iPads and the like. I'd guess that's more like 0.1%.
Jakob Nielsen has been talking about "usability" as long as I can recall. So eight years ago he put this into the context of computer design and training. Which has been the mainstream interpretation of findings like this over the past 50 years of growing technological complexity.
50 years is a good amount of time to wait for better software. Now we anticipate AI will monitor computer screens and guide users to complete tasks.
But maybe better software won't help. After all, 40% of users couldn't do relatively simple software tasks. Maybe the problem is human cognitive limits.
I have coincidentally used that 40% number in a post rather similar to this the last time Trump won. Around the time that OECD study was published. Forty percent is my guesstimate of the percentage of Americans who cannot hope to earn the approximately $70,000 a year (plus benefits) needed to sustain a single adult in the low-end of American middle-class life. A life with some savings, yearly vacations, secure shelter, even a child or two.
Since at least 2008 I have called this global phenomenon mass disability. Every few years I see the basic concept emerge, typically with more euphemisms, only to be quickly forgotten. It's hard to fix anything when the the fix begins with a very unhappy truth.
The unhappy truth is the complexity of our technological environment has exceeded the cognitive grasp of most humans. We now have an unsustainable mismatch between "middle-class" work and the cognitive talents of a large percentage of Americans.
There are things to do, some of which Biden started. We probably needed to have started on them back in the 90s. Perhaps Musk will have ideas. It's all on the oligarchs now.
