Tuesday, July 15, 2025

MAGA anti-science and public dissatisfaction with science - public surveys as input to funding priorities

The GOP/MAGA opposition to science is based on theocracy, class resentment, future shock, social and economic despair, and on not understanding how to use a 2025 phone (which is a bigger problem than you think).

That doesn't mean it's wrong.

I have worked in medical and IT related academia, industry, and government. I have seen important topics go unexplored -- because governmental research funding is driven by politics, tenure goals, avoiding difficult or intractable topics, seeking areas that have short-term opportunities, and a strong aversion to failure.

Osteoarthritis is very common -- but gets relatively little research because we don't understand it. Cognitive disorders, including autism and schizophrenia, are very common but we know little about natural history, longitudinal course, and etiology. Even the very definitions of neuropsychiatric disorders are overdue for review and revision.

And these are only the areas that come quickly to min for a hasty blog post.

It won't lesson MAGA/GOP hatred of science, but there are good reasons to seek public input into research priorities through surveys and interviews.  Public input could, for example, be added as a weighting factor in government funded science -- particularly in health care.

American science has a long road to recovery and it will need support from those who are not utterly opposed to reason. There is an opportunity to make it better.

Tuesday, July 08, 2025

How to defeat MAGA brutal medicaid access restrictions: fund an AI agent for paperwork completion

In a solid interview with the esteemed Jonathon Gruber K proposes a mitigation for the GOP's reduction of medicaid access through bureaucratic barriers only the most resourceful can overcome: "... is it possible for a few wealthy, decent people to fund a bunch of nonprofit private organizations that will basically do that, that will help people navigate through the system."

Ummm. Sadly, no. K has no personal experience with the world of government disability services, but as very well resourced parents of adults with disabilities we know better. There is no way any volunteer can endure the tedium and mad aggravation of bureaucratic barriers. Famously, scholars of bureaucratic corruption in Africa (who can now apply everything to America) sometimes suggest bribery as the most economically efficient way to bypass these kinds of extractive barriers.

But there is another way.

We could fund an AI agent that gathers the data, stores it, identifies gaps, fills them where possible, asks only for what is needed, accepts voice input, assembles the material, and submits it. Then, when the submitted paperwork or electronic transaction inevitable goes missing, submits it again. And again. And again. Until something cracks on the MAGA barrier and the transaction is completed.

The AI never tires. Never gets sick. Never gets bored. Never wavers. It's effective IQ for this process is the very top of the human scale.

If AI leadership is looking for an opportunity to see the value of agentic AI here it is.

Monday, June 30, 2025

Minnesota's Mesabi Bike Trail - A 2025 Review

This past weekend, over two days with a night in Virginia, a friend and I road Minnesota's newest old trail - The Mesabi Trail across the northern Minnesota Iron Range.

The Messabi trail is unlike any other bike trail I've been on. It's beautiful with abundant wild flowers, a little bit insane in its ambition, and a credit to local champions and state and federal government programs that support low income rural America. It has been pieced together over 30 years from smaller local trails and extensive new trail construction in severe terrain and severe climate -- requiring painstaking negotiations with the lawyers of the wealthy investors (ex: Astors!) who purchased mineral rights in the 1920s and 1930s. Last year the MN Star Tribune described the trail.

We did the entire trail between Ely and Grand Rapids. It's marketed to be ridden in the other direction, but doing it in reverse shortened our drive home. We parked at the trailhead in Grand Rapids and took the excellent shuttle to Ely. There's a modest altitude drop from Ely to Grand Rapids, but traveling east to west as we did does run into the usual westerly winds. We were fortunate to have excellent weather.

Around the middle of the trail you cross the Laurentian Divide. To the west water flows to the Mississippi, to the east it flows to Hudson Bay (there's some complexity with the St Lawrence divide where water flows to Superior and the St Lawrence river but I didn't sort that out).

This is not one of those flat and straight rail trails we know and love. This trail has extraordinary bridges over wetland a mining waters but it often follows the terrain. Terrain that includes many punchy climbs and descents. I have never shifted my old touring bike triple chainring as much as I did during our trip!

The trail is beautiful and often lovely to ride, but unless you have an eBike there is real work involved.  We did roughly 70 miles each day with panniers and it felt more like a 90 mile road ride. Work is continuing on remaining segments. Severe weather washed out a segment near Giants Ridge, on a weekend we were able to duck under the barriers and (easily) ride through -- there was no obvious alternative! One unfinished section of the trail requires a few miles on no-shoulder but quiet road. There are gravel segments. Expect debris on the trail; the weather can be harsh at times.

If I were to do it again I'd either do it over 3-4 days or do it in segments and spend more time visiting the communities and admiring the scenery. On the other hand, given the time we had, two days was excellent.

The trail is both an adventure and an education. You can see many of the issues that are common across rural America -- people who established roots in places that no longer have an economic foundation. You pass through extensive open pit mines now being replaced by nature, sometimes on a narrow ridge between vast pits, sometimes between and over piles of removed rock. This is all more engaging and lovely than you might think.

Some lessons and tips from our experience.
  1. Order the paper trail map. I am surprised they don't provide a PDF version of this. If you don't order in advance they are available at trailheads.
  2. There are some long stretches, especially between Ely and Virginia, without water access. We needed a LOT of water. Two big water bottles were not enough for some stretches. I'd recommend an additional bottle.
  3. You need to use the Ride With GPS segments they provide. The trail map is not sufficient for navigation given limited signage and ongoing trail construction.
  4. You want a bike with a wide gear range and at least 32 mm tires for the gravel stretches.
  5. In several towns there is only the local pub to get water or food from. This area has been losing population, especially young people, for generations. Some towns have lost local groceries and local restaurants (other than the pub).
  6. I always had mobile coverage. That's good because this is a remote and rugged area and on several segments we saw very few people.
  7. Signage is limited. I don't know if vandals are removing them or if more sign work is planned for a later stage.
  8. Periodically check the satellite view to see what's outside the trail. One of the amazing things about this adventure is seeing nature reclaiming the old mines.
  9. Try to spend some money in the local communities. They need it. There is usually at least a pub, if you don't want a beer gets some fluids or snacks or a meal.
Paper trail map: You want this.

Trailhead arches display town name

Historical exhibits along trail

Town MN McKinley / Great War monument

Pontoon bridges are LOUD but spectacular wetland view

MN highest bridge east of Virginia - this is a pit mine

Virginia has steam vents for a system that once heated the town

Saywer is one of many state funded parks and monuments in Virginia

WPA fountain later restored. A testimony to government really

Trailside exhibit, one of last of underground mines

Downtown Virginia, much is gone but some new gems
All the brown is open pit mines - mostly invisible from the trail



Friday, June 27, 2025

Prediction: A post-AGI American democracy will be socialist

I hope AGI is decades away. I fear it is years away.

If AGI comes in the near future we will have widespread unrest and turmoil. From that one path leads to a totalitarian dictatorship. But if we somehow dodge that, and resurrect something resembling a democracy,  the governing party will be socialist.

That's the only American democracy prediction I have. Otherwise I have no idea what happens next.

Sunday, May 25, 2025

When and why did the America Republic derail? A citizen perspective

Historians will debate when America derailed and why. They may be interested in the perspectives of an everyday generic citizen. Well, future historian, here you are.

TLDR; 

  • when: 1998 America started to derail. The Republic collapsed in 2024.
  • why: too much too fast
Longer version

I pick 1998 because that's when America stopped making sense. Tech stock valuations were growing with the dot-com bubble, and the finance industry was taking off. Globalization and the rise of China and India was in full swing.

After 1998 America got wealthier, but manufacturing moved away. The historic "middle class" of home ownership, stable employment, vacations, benefits, started to require a college degree or small business ownership. Work favored by non-college men was less available. The post WW II collapse of rural America accelerated. Technological change and the cognitive demands of increasingly essential technology grew quickly. The average person no longer understood their telephone. From 2000 to 2010 America had rapidly growing IT powered fraud and scams (Enron was just one example), 9/11, the catastrophic invasion of Iraq, and the Great Recession of 2008.


Today, in May 2025, as I look over the train wreck of the first American Republic, I think all of the above played a role. Most of all globalization and IT, but even more fundamentally too much change too quickly. There is a speed limit to how quickly humans and human societies can adapt to change, how quickly our train can take the bends and turns. When the limit is hit the train derails. Then we hope there's a period of slower change while we try to put the pieces back together.

Friday, March 28, 2025

Tesla Takedown - how I think about it

TeslaTakedown (#TeslaTakedown) events occur nationwide. I put those in the MSP metro region on the nokings.kateva.org calendar.

The TeslaTakedowns are a legal and peaceful response to the catastrophe of Elon Musk. They are not a perfect response however. Tesla auto retailers and workers don't deserve to suffer for Musk's crimes. This is how I think about the movement.

What is Musk doing that threatens America, Canada, Mexico, Greenland, Ukraine and pretty much everyone else not living under Putin?

1. Corruption: buying votes, conflicts of interest, funding Trump corruption

2. Breaking the constitution: Laws are for the little people, not for the Kings and Barons.

3. Breaking government: Careless and cruel destruction of American science, government services, and governance. 

4. Putting Tesla dealers and workers in harms’ way.

Musk is unconstrained by the rules of government employment. The weakness of the American state means he has only one potential vulnerability; his wealth and influence decline when Tesla's share price falls. TeslaTakedown's goal is to reduce Musk's power. If Musk had a shred of honor and integrity he would compensate Tesla dealers for the harm he has brought them. If the Tesla board respected the company they would fire Musk.

We aren't protesting because Musk is a lousy person, a liar, a coward, a bully, and a crap father.  We aren't protesting because Musk is without honor or integrity or compassion. We protest because Musk is causing great harm to America and to most of the world outside Russia and China.

No Kings: A calendar of Twin Cities (MSP) events for the resurrection of American democracy

nokings.kateva.org lists Twin Cities (Minneapolis and St Paul) metro region events supporting American constitutional democracy and governance against the Musk-Trump assault. It is updated weekly based on the sources listed on the page. Currently those are:

The site uses the Google Calendar platform; you can have the events show up in your Android, iOS, macOS and Windows calendars.

Tuesday, March 11, 2025

When the MAGA say "woke" they mean "secular humanist"

I've long wondered what the MAGA mean by "woke" and why they hate it so much.  A recent essay by the scribe of the technarchy, Noah Smith, answered my question.

Smith writes
N.S. Lyons is a popular essayist in the “national conservative” tradition...  He is well-read and well-informed ... 

In a recent essay entitled “American Strong Gods”, Lyons identifies what in my opinion is a deep truth about our current historical moment....

... Lyons believes that the end of anti-Nazism as the West’s guiding principle will pave the way for the return of morality, community, rootedness, faith, and civilizational pride ...

... the American Right views wokeness as a greater threat than the potential return of Hitler ... 

If the great threat is wokeness, then presumably it is opposed to the things Lyons praises. I don't know what wokeness is, but let me suggest, based on that list, that woke is a synonym for "secular humanist". I'll go through each of Lyons values and say whether secular humanism (and liberalism) is opposed ...

  1. Morality: The MAGA are without honor, integrity, compassion or decency. Their morality is about the supremacy of wealth, the rightness of strength, and the joy of crushing enemies. But it is a morality of sort and it's very different from secular humanism. Secular humanist morality is much closer to traditional Christian thought but with a primary focus on people.  Opposed.
  2. Community: Libs (sec hum variant) are more concerned with individual freedom and tolerance than with tribe or community.  Somewhat opposed.
  3. Rootedness: Perplexity tells me that by this the MAGA mean "historic and cultural heritage". Like statues to slaveholders. Myths and stories, many untrue. Secular humanists favor truth and reality - albeit with the knowledge that humans need stories and untrue stories may facilitate less terrible behavior. Opposed with caveat.
  4. Faith. Secular humanists tend to be agnostic or atheistic and favor people over religious belief. Opposed.
  5. Civilizational pride: Similar to rootedness. Again, myths and stories, much omitted. No slavery, no genocides, no slaughters, no crimes. Again, secular humanists favor truth and reality. Opposed

The shoe fits. When MAGA speak of "woke" they mean "secular humanist", which they probably consider the same as Lib. They are correct to say "woke" (secular humanist) is the enemy.

Saturday, March 08, 2025

Project 2025 - the Perplexity Summary

I don't have the patience to dig through Project 2025. I was hoping a journalist I follow would do an opinion-free overview but I haven't seen one. So I asked Perplexity Deep Research to extract themes. I italicized the ones that I have not seen discussed very much. It does not seem to be an expression of a coherent ideology; rather it seems to be a political document collecting opinions of powerful individuals. A lot of it is about education and schools.

  • Administrative state: Dissolve Education, EPA and Homeland Security.
    • Defund Head Start.
    • HHS gets education
    • Dept of Education funds go to school vouchers
  • Seed conservatives throughout the civil service
  • Put the FBI and DOJ under presidential control. Use National Guard for immigration enforcement.
  • Flat tax and corporate tax cut
  • Eliminate overtime pay rules, weaken NRLB, relax OSHA rules.
  • Promote fossil fuel industries by reducing environmental regulations. Reverse carbon emission regulations, promote Arctic drilling
  • Reduce reliance on foreign manufacturing (PDB claims 2025 is internally inconsistent about tariffs vs free trade).
  • Restrict abortion by banning medication mail and defund Planned Parenthood
  • Rescind LGBTQ+ anti-discrimination rules in healthcare and foster care.
  • End civil rights enforcement in schools
  • End Title 1 funding (money for schools with high percentage of low income students)
  • End Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IEPs, transition services, least restrictive environment etc). There is no federal replacement noted so presumably this all goes to the states.
  • Defund NPR and PBS
  • Pornography restrictions
  • Ban TikTok, ban Confucius Institutes, block Chinese critical sector investments
  • Defund climate science, downsize NOAA
  • Privatize National Flood Insurance Program
  • Reinstate border wall
The full perplexity report includes critiques of these measures. I hadn't wanted those but LLMs have a "mind of their own" as they say. Apparently LLMs think Project 2025 is kind of dumb. 

As a certified squishy Lib I can see the logic of some of them. The weirdest parts are the trans and porn obsessions. The funniest part is the TikTok ban. The fossil fuel thing wins "most insane". The cruelest part of 2025 may be removing support for persons with cognitive disabilities.

Dramatic cuts to science research and the antivaxx movement don't seem to be coming from Project 2025, those may be a Musk/Trump thing. Greenland/Canada also seems to be a Musk/Trump obsession.

Thursday, January 23, 2025

Repairing a broken America - where the Trump oligarchy is vulnerable

I expect it will be transiently reversed, but the Jan 21, 2025 federal informer program was a historic marker. Nobody will be able to say they did not know.

The key to restoring a liberal democracy to America will be to identify and publicize Trump actions that his voters will find disturbing.  In a Bluesky thread I identified several measures that I think may resonate with non-college white men and women. I don't think Musk's impulsive nazi salute or the passing of liberal democracy or similar outrages will have much traction. I think these topics might. I will update this post as I collect ideas from more informed sources than me.
  1. Corruption. I believe corruption has been the downfall of many authoritarian governments even in nations that are much further from a functional democracy than America. Do not tire of pointing out the corruption of Trump and his oligarchs. Do not omit the corruption of Congress (including many Dems) and of the Supreme Court.
  2. Eugenics: Trump, Musk, Andreesen et al are true believers in eugenics. They believe that breeding must be encouraged among the cognitive elite. (Don't assume that the oligarchs are simple pigment racists, they will be more or less happy to include any cognitive elite.). They key here is that their eugenics enthusiasms exclude the majority of Trump voters. Most of them would not qualify as breeders.
  3. Medicine: I will not be entirely unhappy if RFK leads HHS. If immunization rates fall low enough we will see some outbreaks of truly horrible diseases among (mostly) unvaccinated children. The images will resonate with Trump voters. Mothers in particular may be unhappy.
  4. SCOTUS: If America has a future the Roberts Court will be counted among the most corrupt in history. I have a hunch there is a special vulnerability there.
  5. Religion: There is a reason church and state were separated hundreds of years ago. America has many religions and many sects. They all compete for funds and followers. They all believe they know the true way, and that their rivals are at least somewhat wrong. There is a strong Catholic component to the Trump regime (esp SCOTUS), that cannot please his Protestant fundamentalist followers. Do not fail to remind Trump's religious fundamentalists that he his oligarchs are all agnostic or atheist.
  6. Andreesen's Federal Bitcoin reserve: The use of "taxpayer money" to give Andreesen an exit from his bitcoin holdings will resonate with the Trump base. They do not mind oligarchs, but some will resent this.
  7. Crushing support for cognitively disabled children: Andreesen and Trump seem to have a particular dislike for the support of cognitively disabled children. Their language and cuts are particularly cruel. (They apply to cognitively disabled adults as well, but that cohort is less photogenic.) In my experience conservatives are often personally supportive of the cognitively disabled and more sympathetic than many Dem elite. This cruelty should be exposed and shared.
  8. Informer programs: The people of East Germany did not care for the STASI. Many of the Trump base will be offended by informer programs. Do not fail to publicize these.
It is two years to the midterms. Our goal is to show the Trump base that they have been cheated and betrayed. Some will vote Dem, many will decide not to vote. The 2026 midterms are the next battle for American democracy.

The Jan 21 2025 Federal OPM informer program is a historic milestone

The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) informer program launched within government on Jan 21 2025. This is a historic milestone.


 [1] “… If you are aware of a change in any contract description or personnel position description since November 5, 2024 to obscure the connection between the contract and DEIA or similar ideologies, please report all facts and circumstances to DEIAtruth@opm.gov within 10 days.”

https://chcoc.gov/sites/default/files/OPM%20Memo%20Initial%20Guidance%20Regarding%20DEIA%20Executive%20Orders.pdf

I think this may come to be seen as a tactical mistake. It is too early to launch informer programs, too early to turn colleagues into STASI style informers. The shape and form of the memo will rouse some. 

I worked for the Veterans Health Administration for six years and received DEI training during the Biden administration during the brief time the staff program ran before internal pushback ended it. I remember (fallible) one of our instructors as a black woman. Almost certainly a veteran. Patient, gentle, cautious -- the sort of person who will have friends and supporters. They will be unhappy.

I would not be surprised if the memo is rescinded and the author reassigned within the Trump administration. As I said - too early. But whether or not it is reversed, the wake up call is clear. Nobody will be able to say they did not know.

I am retired and, to be honest, I have been a bit at loose ends. In an odd way this is the sort of thing I've been waiting for. I'm reaching out locally to set up some in person discussions and networking for peaceful resistance and support.

Thursday, January 02, 2025

On DOGE and government efficiency: bad software, bad regulations, underfunded commitments and more

I spent six years as a mid-level (regional) federal bureaucrat in VHA. I'm also a tech and economics geek with 20 years experience at a very large publicly traded corporation and through our children I have extensive experience as a consumer of federal government services. Lastly I don't have to worry about offending employers or colleagues.

All of which is to say that if you want to think about President Musk's government efficiency push these thoughts may be helpful.

  1. The Federal government hires a lot of people to work around both software limitations and a rats nest of Congressional mandates and regulations that may have been well intended but are now obsolete and harmful. The mandates and regulations are only added, never removed.
  2. Much of the federal government is outsourced to huge consulting firms that benefit from both less awful internal software and freedom from many federal mandates and regulations (famously including many laws constraining law enforcement). They take a large cut for themselves so their net efficiency effect might be positive or negative. If government became more efficient then much of that outsourcing should be reversed -- but that would drastically reduce campaign donations and post-political employment for public servants.
  3. Government software quality was pretty good in the 80s and into the 90s. I've seen some good work in past few years, often by a very quiet semi-volunteer SV cohort that was brought in by Obama, survived Trump I, and continued through Biden.
  4. The Federal government lives by unfunded mandates and underfunded commitments. Inefficiency in many forms is a major way to reduce spending on those commitments. A more efficient government would employ far fewer people but would spend more money. The net effect might be negative.
  5. If software quality were improved, even without removing dysfunctional internal mandates and regulations, large numbers of working class American would lose what are often low paying but secure high benefit jobs. Even as the overall economy has far less to offer the non-academic class than it did even 20 years ago. Inefficient government employment is a model for what we will need to do for most Americans as our AIs develop.
  6. The main reason federal software quality is poor is because federal software procurement follows rules set up in the 1980s to reform defense department purchasing and because of mandates designed to support military veterans and historically disadvantaged populations. These rules are incompatible with creating and maintaining complex software.
  7. If government switched to modern software platforms there would be a huge expenditure to upgrade IT infrastructure.
That's about all I have. I know there are others who can offer far more detail, but they will usually be unable to speak freely. If you are a journalist I suggest hunting down other retired mid-level federal bureaucrats.

Monday, December 02, 2024

Link resolution in the broken web - embed a fallback search string in the URL

Geeks know the web has been dying for over a decade. Google was one on the killers, which is ironic since now the near-dead web is a problem for Google search.

Part of the dying web is a lot of broken links. But sometimes the target still exists, maybe at a different service. Or maybe in the Internet Archive.

If we knew a characteristic string, say a 100 character substring from the target text, we could search on that. 

If that characteristic string were a part of the HTML for the URL then when that URL fails a client could automatically search with that string. Often the target would be found.

Perplexity tells me this is a novel idea, so I'm posting it here. Maybe a future AI will read and suggest it as its own idea. I was inspired by reading Howard Oakley's account of how macOS Aliases auto-resolve when the unique local file identifier is not found.

Wednesday, November 27, 2024

On performative block culture in social media

I am told Oligarch Musk did something that made blocking less effective on X.  I don't care about what he did, but I think our would-be Ruler has a point. There is something about triumphal blocking that makes me uneasy. It has the scent of High School bullying and community shunning. I think it makes smart people wary of engagement. 

Social media blocks are necessary. That doesn't make them good.

I'd like to see an option for time-limited blocks. I'd also like profiles to show block counts by default, with an option to hide that count. 

How would I use the signal of a high or absent block count?

I would evaluate in context, but often I would not engage with a high block count poster. I would be less likely to follow them as well, not least because tracking who I should be wary of is too much work.

Tuesday, November 26, 2024

Ed Lotterman - American's best economics pundit - and a sample column excerpt (immigration)

What? You've never heard of Ed Lotterman, the Minnesota economist whose web site was last current around 2020? At one time he was an agricultural economist and an economics prof at a small MSP liberal arts college and before that:

For most of the 1990s, Ed was the regional economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, where his chief responsibility was to write that Bank’s portion of the infamous “beige book.” In 1998 he left the Fed to begin writing Real World Economics.

Perhaps you've never heard of him because the only newspaper he appears in is the very obscure and all but defunct "St Paul Pioneer Press". Where his content is paywalled (unless you read the RSS feed!). He has never had, to my knowledge, any professional social media presence of any kind.

Lotterman is almost a complete unknown. He is also, of all the many economics journalists and pundits I read, the most persuasive and, for me, the most insightful.

I can't fix our broken knowledge economy but I can, in a blog even more obscure than Professor Lotterman, excerpt key "fair use" fragments of his columns. These are tagged Lotterman, so you can see them at notes.kateva.org/search/label/Lotterman.

For example (The "Black jobs" is a reference to a classic Trump racist statement a week or two before)

Real World Economics: Consider immigrants’ impacts on wages and jobs 10/27/2024

... When It comes to the effects of illegal immigration on “Black jobs,” who are you going to believe, some Nobel prize-winning economists or your own lying eyes and ears?

Well, I’m with my own lying eyes and with Donald Trump — and against most individual economists and respected think tanks. In the real world, large numbers of immigrants in recent decades, here both legally and unauthorized, do suppress wages for low-skilled native-born workers. They also make it harder for native-born workers, Black or white, to find jobs.

This is a major reason for disaffection and anger among lower-education manual workers of any race in our country today, and it’s fueling Trump’s popularity. It is an issue to which higher-education white-collar workers shamefully have turned blind eyes and deaf ears, and to which ivory-tower think tanks have tried to defuse.

Caveat: I desperately hope that Trump loses the election. But at age 78 and with multiple health risk factors, he won’t be around forever. The issues he raises here, however, will live on....

... The growing inequality of income distribution in the United States, and the well-founded hopelessness of tens of millions of households, is the central economic challenge of our age.

... First, Trump’s casual references to “Black jobs” have racist overtones. But if instead he had said, “high numbers of immigrants reduce wages and job openings for low-education, low-skilled native born U.S. workers,” his racial views would not have clouded the argument....

...  false, however, is the facile argument that immigrants only take “jobs that Americans are not willing to do.” That ignores the fact that the labor supply curve slopes up and to the right. Raise wages, and more people will want to do these jobs. Meatpackers, roofing contractors and dairy farmers who argue they hire immigrants “because I could not get anyone else to take the jobs” need to add the words “at the low wages I want to pay and under bad working conditions.”

Twenty-five years ago you could find plenty of native-born workers milking cows, mowing lawns, tarring roofs and troweling concrete. Forty years ago native-born workers still toiled on packing plant kill floors. The reason these now are rare is not that a wave of indolence swept our working classes. Rather it was that more and more employers found they could hire good workers at lower wages than they had been paying.

In economics terms, the entire supply curve for unskilled workers had “shifted to the right.” This means that at each of many possible wage rates, one could find more willing job applicants than before.

Also recognize that employers are not a vile class of exploiters. Most employers of unauthorized immigrants are not vast publicly traded corporations. Other than in meat packing and poultry processing, they often are small- or medium-sized businesses in brutally competitive markets.

In hiring, they are caught in a classic “prisoner’s dilemma:” If other small-business roofers, insulation installers or landscapers start hiring unauthorized workers, and they themselves can only get native-born crews by paying higher wages, and by extension, raising prices, they will soon be driven out of business. Or, as has been true for Minnesota dairy farms using only family labor, they face decades of brutally falling inflation-adjusted milk prices.

The cost advantage of hiring workers not here legally goes beyond wages to working conditions. These immigrants are the most powerless people in our economy. Most of their employers may be entirely honest and fair. Some are subject to federal inspection in terms of safety and compliance with Fair Labor Standards Act provisions. But millions of these immigrants also work in dangerous conditions, do not get overtime or rest breaks or whose wages are simply stolen. They are highly compliant workers who endure abuse because they are vulnerable with little choice.

Also recognize that for immigrants, merely being here is “fringe benefit,” because it is an investment for the future. Working for low wages in grueling conditions, enables bringing other family members. It promises their offspring far better futures than in their countries of origin. This trend is not new either. It has been true for all of American history and for most of us.

So why do economists differ with Trump, and think high immigration levels have small adverse effects on native born workers? Their research is sophisticated in its use of statistical modeling and looks at effects on the economy as a whole. Search “economic research effect of immigrants on wages” to get studies from the liberal Brookings Institution and conservative Cato Institute alike, from Forbes Magazine, the Center for Immigration Studies, Congress.gov, the Penn-Wharton Budget Model and myriad scholarly journals.

These are based on econometric modeling. Many cite early work by David Card, a labor economist who shared a Nobel Prize in 2007 for work finding that minimum wages could increase employment and on the wage effects of immigration. But they broaden this across economies as a whole and in greater depth than in the “real world.”

I am not qualified to critique this work. However, Card’s initial work was on one unusual case, the effects of the 1980 arrival of Cubans in the Mariel boatlift that further doomed Jimmy Carter’s reelection chances. Card found that subsequent unemployment in the Miami area was no higher than in similar metro areas with fewer Mariel refugees. Extending this highly unusual one-time event to the entire national economy seems a “fallacy of composition” to the nth power.

Also, some academic results seem strained, to put it politely. For a few examples, consider that the availability of immigrant nannies allows more college educated mothers to return to work, thus increasing employment. Also, remittances back to El Salvador from immigrants here amount to 18% of their GDP and thus that country can import more from us.

I suggest that the current panicked reactions of employers of immigrants to the prospect of a Trump administration forcibly expelling millions of immigrants is the strongest refutation of academia’s “no effect on wages or employment” arguments. If immigration did not lower wages, as the economists say, why should out-migration, even forced, raise them?

The Department of Homeland Security says there are only some 82,000 unauthorized immigrants in Minnesota, but they are now a large fraction of dairy farm employees. A recent news article quotes a dairy farm owner warning in apocalyptic terms of soaring milk prices and milk shortages if illegal workers are rounded up and expelled.

Another from a national newspaper warns of a collapse of home construction and soaring housing prices if building contractors lose immigrant workers. And one can find similar plaints from poultry and hog processors of no ham on tables or even Chicken McNuggets if immigrants are arrested and expelled...