Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Florida's 90% better future means Edwards can be kingmaker

Months after he was written off, McCain is the GOP favorite. I assume the Trilateral Commission is at work, otherwise I can't explain this at all.

The GOP now has a choice between Mitt "thumbscrews" Romney and John McCain. Assuming continuation of bizarre trends, there's only a 1/3 chance of Romney winning. If Romney wins, I'm guessing, based on Florida numbers, that there's only a 1/3 chance of his getting the presidency.

So there's about a 90% [1] probability that America's next president will be Hilary Clinton, Barack Obama, or John McCain.

Right wing talk radio hates McCain; it's hard to imagine a better endorsement. I would be disappointed if McCain won, but I would not be thinking about emigrating.

So today we have a 90% probability of a better future for America.

Wow, I didn't expect to be thinking that already.

So how does this change my thoughts my thoughts ahead of Minnesota's primary?

If Florida's Dem delegates had counted, Hilary Clinton would now be planning to wrap-up the primary contests. If Giuliani had won Florida I'd be wearing my Hilary button now.

Today, though, I feel freer.

I think she's still the best option for winning the presidency, but I still don't care for the Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton dynastic progression. I still fear Obama can't win Florida, but if McCain is the nominee that might be a risk to consider.

Or maybe I should go with Edwards, and give him the power to choose both the President and the Vice-President.

Today I'm thinking I want John Edwards to be the kingmaker.

[1] 1 - (1/3*1/3) = 8/9 = 89%

Update: Ok, so much for that. strategist Joe Trippi explained the timing of the decision like this: "It became increasingly clear on Sunday and Monday that we were totally blocked out of the news story. John Edwards didn't want to play politics. He didn't want to stay in the race to be a kingmaker or a spoiler. There was just not a clear shot at the nomination.

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