Showing posts with label natural selection. Show all posts
Showing posts with label natural selection. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 04, 2016

What are the neanderthal diseases?

Europeans used to have more Neanderthal DNA than we have now ...

Ancient DNA from last Ice Age unveils distant ancestors underwent significant evolutionary changes | NH Voice

… the percentage of Neanderthal DNA in Europeans 45,000 years ago has declined from between 3% and 6% to around 2% in Europeans today. The researchers think that natural selection has reduced Neanderthal ancestry over time.

… Neanderthal DNA is slightly toxic to modern humans…

Perhaps Neanderthal DNA was more useful during the ice age, but is less useful now. Or perhaps it was never that handy — though hybrids were not rare.

It would be interesting to know what disadvantages/diseases moderns get from Neanderthal genes. Once we might have looked at gene products, but now we know things are rarely so simple. Genes are like letters in the English alphabet, not characters in Chinese. The letter ‘a’ contributes to both “Bad” and “Glad”, but those words (gene products) appear in many sentences and paragraphs (phenotypes).

There have been some early studies …

I’d wondered about osteoarthritis, but so far that’s not shown up.

Monday, November 30, 2015

Extremophiles and auto-immune disease

The extremophiles are at home in near boiling water and the deep crust of the earth. Every ecological niche is colonized by life; and life forms everywhere work to change their ecology to suit themselves.

It is the inevitable logic of natural selection in action.

So then, why should the hot tissues of auto-immune disease be any different? How could there not be life forms evolved to that extreme environment? Life forms that might facilitate it, to defeat their enemies and extend their preferred environment. An ecology that, once created, will host competitors, some liking it hotter, some coder. An ecology with successor species, like any forest.

It seems inevitable.

Thursday, July 23, 2015

Sleep disordered breathing Catch-22: sleeping with post-operative nasal obstruction and an unreliable oral airway

How would a cetacean live with a blocked blowhole? 

The question was asked in a 1986 newspaper column ...

A--Whales and dolphins breathe only through their blowholes, nostrils found on the tops of their heads, according to Daniel Odell, a professor of marine biology at the University of Miami. In the unlikely event that their blowholes are blocked or damaged, the animals would probably suffocate, Odell [1] said.

These animals have no connection between the esophagus and the larnyx, and breathing through the mouth is therefore impossible. While underwater, these animals seal their blowholes by means of powerful muscles.

I suspect Dr Odell actually said the cetacean would definitely suffocate; their anatomy means they are truly obligate nose breathers.[2][3]

Humans, in general, are better off. We aren’t obligate nose (blowhole) breathers, we can breathe through our nose and our mouth… 

Oops. I should have said adults can do that. Human infants are almost obligate nose breathers [4], if their nose obstructs they are desperately unhappy and cannot readily sleep [4]. But it’s not just infants, many human adults have great difficulty switching from nasal airways to oral routes when sleeping: "Several patients also had a greatly increased number and severity of episodes of nocturnal oxygen desaturation”.

Humans, it turns out, have a bit of dolphin in them [3]. Our nasal airways are a primary breathing system, our oral airway is a backup system and a turbo-charger for high rates of gas exchange (as in running). If we breathe predominantly through our mouths we experience dental and soft tissue problems. Our nasal airways have a lot of complex adaptation to manage the challenge of large volume gas exchange including autonomic control systems that shift air flow from one nostril to another [5] and “turbinates” (soft tissue mounds) that direct air flow [6].

Actually, I think of us as having 2.5 airways. We have the turbo-charger/emergency oral airway and we have two nostrils that shift air flow between them and act somewhat independently. But that’s just me.

Which brings me to … me. Yes, this is one of those tediously long individual medical anecdote blog posts. It’s my anecdote of managing sleep for seven days with a post-operatively obstructed blowhole (nose) and an unreliable oral airway. The Catch-22 is that the same conditions that made the surgery necessary also mad the post-surgical experience very difficult.

I’m hoping that this writeup will be useful for people in similar circumstances, and for their caregivers. It’s long enough that it has sections - thee first is your informed consent. The second covers what most physicians won’t know. The rest are for the inexplicably persistent.

Informed Consent

I don’t see patients, but I’m a physician and science-based medicine is one of my interests. Over the past few decades I’ve seen several rediscoveries of what we used to call evidence-based medicine. That’s the earnest (and important) attempt to reduce the number of times we hurt people by fervently recommending something that’s totally wrong. All of these programs come up with a grading system for medical knowledge, something like ...

Grade A: Recommendation backed by really well done randomized clinical trials. That’s how we know that Magnesium Sulfate is great post-MI [7] and every woman over 50 should be on estrogen for osteoporosis …(*cough*). Right. Even the best double-blind randomized controlled trial research isn’t terribly reliable. How we deal with that is a topic for a different blog post [8].

Grade B: Research trials and animal models that funky statistical massaging of big data sets that give us a good reason to try something relatively harmless (we think) or to fund better research.

Grade C: Expert opinion from the great gurus. The kind of opinion that gave us thalidomide for morning sickness and bed rest for back pain. AHA “911” guidelines are Grade C. Yeah, Grade C is moving into coin flip territory.

This blog post is grade D. Medical anecdote — which is more useful than I was once taught but is still very unreliable. I’m a family physician who designs clinical software — I haven’t seen a patient in 16 years. On the other hand, I have discovered that diseases have a differently look when seem from the inside instead of the outside. So there’s that. In any case, you have been warned.

Managing post-operative dual airway obstruction

Some adults are semi-obligate nose breathers when sleeping. If we can’t breathe through our noses we don’t breathe. We may accomplish a partial failover to the backup oral airway system, or we might awaken with pleasant dreams of suffocation (or we might die, but we don’t understand that very well). If we continue sleeping we may drop our oxygen levels below what our brain demands.

So what can we do? The usual prescriptions for sleep disordered breathing are weight loss [11] and CPAP. Since diet and exercise rarely produce significant weight lost the first of these usually requires costly and complex surgery. Nasal CPAP, assuming insurance companies would pay for it [10] would be working against a closed passage — that’s not going to go well. On the other hand oral CPAP is nasty (oral airway is second best, doesn’t have filtering and warming, etc) and, of course, there’s the obligate nose breathing problem.

There are other options (see the long version), but my particular nose was obstructed by deviated cartilage/septum on the left and by hypertrophied turbinates on the right — the legacy of anatomy, age, and allergies. I’d failed two years of intensive allergy therapy including twice daily Neti Pot irrigation “with (*cough*) sterile water”. So I opted for nasal septum reconstruction (I think it’s more than septum really, but I’m not a surgeon) and resection of the right medial turbinate. My results at this moment are excellent, but we know long term results may be often unsatisfactory for older adults.

in any case this post isn’t actually about whether nasal airway surgery is a good idea, or has lasting benefit, or the overlap between sleep disturbance and sleep apnea. It’s about how one somewhat obligate nose breather managed to get enough sleep to live [20] be semi-functional during the post-operative week where the nasal airway is shut down by blocked stents [14]. I used 3 devices, all of my own devising [18]. There was no insurance coverage for any of them, so the cost would be prohibitive for most Americans.

Device 1: CMS-50E OLED Fingertip Pulse Oximeter $74

I wanted an alarm to sound if and when I desaturated. Amazon has many low quality oximeters for under $100 , but most don’t have an alarm. The “CMS-50E” has both an alarm and the theoretical ability to export data to a CSV file. 

In practice it alarmed several times, but some of them appeared to be false alarms related either to software glitches or low power. I think there were one or two genuine desaturation events. It did reassure Emily and I that most of the time I seemed not be desaturating (she could read it while I slept). I taped it to my finger to keep it in place. It comes with an unreadable paper direction set, but it’s not hard to find a readable PDF version on the web. That does not mean one can understand the directions! Hint — there’s only a single button with two modes - quick press and long press. Long press is how one selects menu items. You have to set alarm threshold (default isn’t bad) and enable the alarm. I compared readings to a non-alarming $45 oximeter I’d bought earlier, they had similar readings. With correct finger placement the readings had at least “face validity”.

There’s a $250 device that uses a similar cheap probe, and lacks an alarm, but can do some data export: Masimo iSpO2 Pulse Oximeter (30 Pin Connector with Large Sensor for Apple iOS Device)

IMG 0003

Device 2: Maintaining oral airway patency by supine neck extension $3

Anesthesiologists know about keeping flaky oral airways open (which is a sign of how unreliable an isolated oral airway is, it often fails in sedated patients). They manually advance the lower jaw (mandible) — but that’s hard to do on one’s sleep self. They also place a roll just beneath the upper thoracic vertebrae (upper shoulder blade) to extend the neck. Since I suspect one reason that i’m an obligate nose breather is that my oral airway sucks (pun) [17] I used this both with and without a very flat pillow. I was completely unable to follow my surgeon’s recommendation to sleep in a semi-seated position - my oral airway collapsed within seconds of early sleep.

The straps kept it rolled up and I threaded them through a T-shirt to help hold the roll in position. I think it helped in the first few days post-operatively.

IMG 0002

Device 3: An oral prosthesis to force mouth breathing $300-$400 or more

This was the key, though none of the four quite good physicians I saw knew of it. Or if they knew of it they weren’t able to connect that knowledge to my problem. I came up with the idea and proposed it to my dentist, who told me I’d reinvented something well known to dentists: Oral Appliance Therapy (see also weirdly good wikipedia article on mandibular advancement splint).

The particular splint he created for me fit onto my lower teeth (fairly comfortably, he’s a good dentist). It separated my molars and had a frontal ridge that was supposed to catch my upper front incisors and thereby stabilize the lower jaw. Perhaps because my lower jaw is so wimpy [17] it didn’t seem to do very much, but the separation of my molars was just barely enough to overcome my natural disposition to clamp my jaw firmly shut when sleeping and help open a small passageway that, with much noise and struggle, I would breathe through while sleeping [19].

There are many designs for these mandibular advancement splints, I suspect there’s not a lot of knowledge about which work best for which people. This particular design just barely worked for me in the post-operative period and it wasn’t enough to let me skip the surgery. For some people a mandibular splint might provide enough support for a not-completely-obstructed nose to avoid surgery altogether.

IMG 0001

These 3 devices, but especially the mandibular advancement splint, let me sleep post-operatively.

This would be a good place to stop reading, because the longer version goes into more details on the post-operative course and the clinical presentation...

Post-operative course

The surgical procedure took about an hour. Afterwords I was fine. My nose was obstructed of course, but I never had any significant post-operative discomfort. That surprised me, I suspect a well done cocaine nerve block.

At night things got nasty. I’d already experienced two years of intermittent suffocation, and the first two nights did not disappoint. Sleep felt like wrestling with a mountain lion. The second night was the worst because i was also sleep deprived, the 3rd and 4th were not a lot better but I did get a few hours of sleep, and by the 5th and 6th night I was doing significantly better. I think the improvement was partly diminished drainage, and early my body adapting to oral airway breathing. According to my wife the breathing sounds were quite impressive.

I found it useful to count to 40 breaths through my mouth while wearing the mandibular prosthesis, the drill seemed to help my troubled transition to an oral airway.

in addition to the devices mentioned above it helped to drink a lot of fluids and to get out of bed every 60-90 minutes and clear as much drainage as possible without, of course, blowing the nose (that’s apparently disastrous, and it felt like a very bad idea). If you were ever a 9 yo boy you probably remember how to maximize spitting distance. The same noisy and revolting technique applies. This especially worked after day 3 when the big dark clots come out.

I used the Neti pot nightly as my surgeon recommended. It didn’t contribute much as my nose was adamantly blocked, but I think it reduced discomfort related to dry clot.

For the first 4-5 days I wore a “mustache dressing” below the nose; contrary to the way it was taught me I found folding a 3” gauze into 3rd worked better than half. It has to be worn with minimal pressure or the tissue around the nose gets sore. I administered vaseline before applying.

Although I had no pain hydrocodone pain meds helped with sleep, probably because they make it easier to tolerate discomfort and perhaps because they make suffocation more tolerable.

Air conditioning was helpful too, I don’t know why. 

The stent removal didn’t bother me in the least. I was immediately able to breathe very well by nose. The Neti post was very helpful for the 3-4 days post stent removal, I used it twice a day. I resumed my antihistamine allergy spray post-stent removal but held off on steroid spray for one week. I then returned to a reduced version of my allergy regimen.

There were 7 medication related physician errors with my post-operative period. None of them caused any harm; they provided some light amusement for Emily (also a family physician) and I. Still, not great. 

The presentation 

I’m going to finish this up with a part that might be of interest to physicians. Namely, how did I first present with this problem. In brief, weirdly.

Two years ago, while on vacation in Florida after a long drive, I awoke at 2am sweating, breathing deeply and rapidly, with my heart pounding. It felt like a sleep terror, but I was about 40 years too old for those. My initial thoughts were about where best to leave my corpse given that the kids were in the room. I assumed i was having a major cardiac event, a new rhythm disorder (most likely), or a likely fatal pulmonary embolus (my mother had recurrent PE). On the bright side, maybe some degenerative neurologic disorder was manifesting as late onset panic attacks or a new variant of my adolescent sleep paralysis.

It never occurred to me that my airway had completely obstructed. In all my (admittedly dated) reading of sleep apnea I hadn’t read of such an acute onset. (Which may be another example of the fundamental problem with medical disease descriptions.)

Over a few minutes everything settled down. I felt fine, if somewhat anxious. Which didn’t fit most of my diagnoses, save perhaps the neuropsychiatric. At this time many physicians would have sent me to the ED, but for various reasons this would have been unusually difficult for my family. So I went back to bed. 

The problem recurred intermittently over the next few weeks, generally in a milder form. Then, on return home, it resolved. Until a couple of months later when it recurred and was associated with a sensation of “air hunger” (not getting enough air on deep breathing). So, after a bit of dithering, I went for my pulmonary embolus evaluation. Which, to the great surprise of both the ED doc and my wife and I, was negative. EKG was fine too, not to mention that I was into regular CrossFit by then. i’d be dead if I had a cardiac problem.

It was after ruling out the obvious causes, and having more regular recurrences, that I figured out that I was awakening due to asphyxiation. My nose, which had been gradually getting less functional over 30+ years, would completely obstruct, and I would fail to activate my backup oral airway. Which is, to be frank, quite weird. It took me a while to figure that out because I didn’t think it was possible. I suspect a non-physician would have made the diagnosis months before.

After we knew what was going on I did see an ENT and I attempted (but failed) to meet up with a sleep specialist [22]. I then embarked on my family doc's recommendation of Neti pots and maximal medical therapy — in part because of my research showing uncertain long term value of nasal surgery and in part because medical types don’t trust surgeons. I got to maximal medical therapy after an allergist visit, and when that failed I opted for surgery. It was during the two years of medical therapy that I came up with my approach to the post-operative period. 

- fn - (lots)

[1] Dr Odell joined SeaWorld in 2001. I assume he’s retired by now, but hope he’s doing well. The web gives us odd glances into people’s lives.

[2] So how do cetaceans produce sounds you ask? Well, that’s where things get weird and fascinating — too odd to put into a blog post. Cetaceans have sets of laryngeal air sacs that may, or may not, be analogous to our (useless?) paranasal sinuses. So one theory is they vocalize like a Scottish bagpipe (used as a comic illustration in that article). The best article I found was a fine post in a flaky sounding blog; turns out there’s a surprising amount of uncertainty. The article doesn’t explain why captive dolphins open their mouths when demonstrating sound production in air.

[3] The fact that an aquatic mammal can evolve to segregate oral and nasal airways does put an interesting spin on human obstructive sleep apnea. We are notoriously good swimmers for a land animal. Alternatively, we also are notoriously good at producing complex sounds, that ability might also have required some compromise of our airway systems. Natural selection would not produce a compromised airway system without a powerful adaptive advantage [4]...

[4] Are infant chimpanzees obligated nose breathers? It would be fascinating if they were not.

[5] Many people notice that one nostril or another is dominant at different times, including variations with head position. This isn’t a random thing, it’s a control system that, we assume, enables tissue rest and recovery.

[6] Years ago surgeons managed some kinds of nasal airway problems by removing the turbinates. This worked well at first, but then patients developed “Empty Nose Syndrome”. Which, of course, we don’t really understand. The neurophysiology of nasal breathing is complex. Incidentally, the nose is much bigger than you think.

[7] Nobody but me will remember the @1992 Mag Sulfate post-MI study that made it into the textbooks but then was reversed by an even bigger study. At that time I was a keen young physician teaching curmudgeonly old braindead docs to use “Grateful Med”, with slides (real slides, or transparencies, prepared using Symantec’s MORE 3.1). I used the then obligatory graph describing the volume of medical knowledge and bemoaning the backwardness of physicians who didn’t read the latest journals. 

That one small reversal shattered my faith. That was when I looked at 10 year old journals and saw how few of the “best” recommendations survived. I proposed, but never pursued, writing an article that tested the non-evidence-based idea that one should read medical journals. Thankfully others were more persistent than I and made a fine academic career of looking at the lifespan of grade A research results. I no longer see articles bemoaning physician failure to track the latest fads.

[8] Ok. The usual answer is meta-analysis. I think we need to look at predictive Bayesian models. So combinations of human clinical trials plus animal models plus biology … Yeah. Needs a separate blog post.

[9] Brains and hearts are the oxygen fiends. Presumably desaturation happens a lot more in Denver than in St Paul MN, but I haven’t seen much discussion of that.

[10] CPAP seems (do we have 15 year natural history studies?) to work well for sleep apnea and sleep disordered breathing - at least for people with working noses who can tolerate it. For reasons I don’t fully understand (expense of evaluation? expense of device/use?) insurance companies are reluctant to pay for it even as demand seems to be rising. So there’s now a big complex hassle around sleep disturbance evaluation, apnea diagnosis, and CPAP use. But this blog post isn’t about apnea ...

[11] FWIW if I got skinnier my wife would send me to an eating disorder program. 

[12] What messes up the septum? Mine was deviated in childhood. The usual explanation is trauma, but I also have a developmental anomaly of my chest wall. So I wonder more about a developmental growth disorder. The allergies are a lifelong nuisance. My surgeon claims that it’s common to see hypertrophy of turbinates on the unobstructed side — presumably due to some mix of missing feedback, increased work, allergies, etc.

[13] Yeah, nasty brain eating protozoan. I probably should have paid to install a filtration system at home and just take my chances when traveling, but I just used tap water.

[14] My surgeon didn’t use old style packing, but “stents” have to placed to stabilize the septum. In my case they were removed one week post-operatively. In theory they are designed to allow air flow, but in practice they always obstruct immediately and cannot be cleared. Material used to reduce bleeding likely contributes to obstruction.

[15] CSV export requires use of a flaky Windows app I’d want to run through a first class malware scanner. I didn’t bother trying to configure it on my Mac VM.

[16] All sold only for “exercise monitoring”, not for medical use. Almost all the reviews are for medical use.

[17] I have the classic small weak puny jaw of the pencil neck geek. I was amazed by the quality of wikipedia articles related to airway problems — maybe there’s a small-jawed-geek-airway-syndrome to be discovered? Something related to maternal testosterone levels perhaps ...

[18] None of these were invented by me of course! I mean that I thought of them in the two years of dreading post-operative asphyxiation. If I had thought to read wikipedia instead of medical articles I’d have learned about the oral prosthesis immediately, instead of having to reinvent it and find my dentist made them. None of the four quite good physicians (and one inexperienced sleep specialist PA [22]) involved in my care, including one family physician, two ENT physicians and one allergist had anything useful to contribute to this particular problem. I think it’s a problem that falls into the black holes between medical specialties, and particularly between medicine and dentistry. Which is appalling, but not surprising. I’d be no better save that I had to solve this problem. The medical literature sucks. Which is why, of course, I spent hours on this blog post.

[19] So why do I firmly clamp my jaw shut while sleeping? I don’t know. My theory is that I have an anatomicaly lousy oral airway, and that I learned to clamp my jaw shut at night to stabilize it and allow nasal breathing before my nasal airway failed. I needed to undo that reflex to get through the post-operative period.

[20] I thought we couldn’t go more than 4-5 days without psychosis or serious health issues. i just now learned that’s wrong — in 1965 Randy Gardner, a 17yo madman, went 11 days for a science fair project. He seems to have subsequently led a fairly quiet life. He had a cat in 2006. So maybe I could have dosed up on modafinil and made a run for 7 days.

[21] Neti pots are one of those weird devices that seem perfectly hideous and revolting on first use but become relatively familiar and appreciated. It’s worth pushing through the initial ickiness to be able to use them for colds and allergies in place of medications. Just watch for the brain eating amoeba [13].

[22] The sleep specialist evaluation was a classic 2015 American medical fiasco. I ended up seeing a brand new (inexperienced) PA who recognized I didn’t fit the obese-apnea pattern they saw 40 times a day and didn’t really know how to proceed given my nasal obstruction and the expectation that I’d have disrupted sleep rather than sleep apnea. The roots of this mess-up had to do with all of the protocols sleep specialists and insurance companies have put in place in their CPAP revenue battles, a recent corporate acquisition of the practice, a problematic transition from sleep center to home sleep studies, and a disruptive electronic health record transition. This was my only medical-bust of the evaluation.

See also

Sunday, August 17, 2014

Human pregnancy is a dynamic struggle - implications for eco-econ, corporate power and secular stagnation

At the “Spherical Cow” level of simplification, human pregnancy is a dynamic tension control system, a kind of brain and gene motivated cold war between fetus and host (emphases mine)

Pregnancy is a war between mother and child – Suzanne Sadedin – Aeon

As the pregnancy continues, the foetus escalates its hormone production, sending signals designed to increase the mother’s blood sugar and blood pressure and thus its own resource supply. In particular, the foetus increases its production of a hormone that prompts the mother’s brain to release cortisol, the primary stress hormone. Cortisol suppresses her immune system, stopping it from attacking the foetus. More importantly, it increases her blood pressure, so that more blood pumps past the placenta and consequently more nutrients are available to the foetus.

The mother … pre-emptively reduces her blood sugar levels. She also releases a protein that binds to the foetal hormone, rendering it ineffective. So then the foetus further increases its production. By eight months, the foetus spends an estimated 25 per cent of its daily protein intake on manufacturing these hormonal messages to its mother. And how does the mother reply? She increases her own hormonal production, countering the embryo’s hormones with her own that decrease her blood pressure and sugar. Through all this manipulation and mutual reprisal, most of the time the foetus ultimately gets about the right amount of blood, and about the right amount of sugar, allowing it to grow fat and healthy in time for birth.

Pre-eclampsia may represent a malfunction of these balancing factors — a malfunction that injures both fetus and mother (many wondered about this in the early 90s).

Eco-econ principles suggest we look for this kind of evolved dynamic tension in our economic and political systems. We might look at something like this…

Feb 2010.png

a three way struggle between powerful economic (voters are also customers) and political forces. 

By analogy our current situation of secular stagnation and extreme wealth concentration is the equivalent of pre-eclampsia — a dynamic control system disorder that ultimately injures even the dominant powers. Corporations  and powerful individuals have accumulated too much wealth and power, resulting in dysfunctional patent laws, increasingly oppressive non-compete contracts, and a corrupt political system.

We can either rebalance our control systems, or we can develop eclampsia.

Saturday, April 26, 2014

Salmon, Picketty, Corporate Persons, Eco-Econ, and why we shouldn't worry

I haven’t read Picketty’s Capital in the Twenty-First Century. I’ll skim it in the library some day, but I’m fine outsourcing that work to DeLong, Krugman and Noah.

I do have opinions of course! I’m good at having opinions.

I believe Picketty is fundamentally correct, and it’s good to see our focus shifting from income inequality to wealth inequality. I think there are many malign social and economic consequences of wealth accumulation, but the greatest threat is likely the damage to democracy. Alas, wealth concentration and corruption of government are self-reinforcing trends. It is wise to give the rich extra votes, lest they overthrow democracy entirely, but fatal to give them all the votes.

What I haven’t seen in the discussions so far is the understanding that the modern oligarch is not necessarily human. Corporations are persons too, and even the Kock Brothers are not quite as wealthy as APPL. Corporations and similar self-sustaining entities have an emergent will of their own; Voters, Corporations and Plutocrats contend for control of avowed democracies [1]. The Rise of the Machine is a pithy phrase for our RCIIT disrupted AI age, but the Corporate entity is a form of emergent machine too.

So when we think of wealth and income inequality, and the driving force of emergent process, we need to remember that while Russia’s oligarchs are (mostly vile) humans, ours are more mixed. That’s not necessarily a bad thing - GOOGL is a better master than David Koch. Consider, for example, the silencing of Felix Salmon:

Today is Felix's last day at Reuters. Here's the link to his mega-million word blog archive (start from the beginning, in March 2009, if you like). Because we're source-agnostic, you can also find some of his best stuff from the Reuters era at Wired, Slate, the Atlantic, News Genius, CJR, the NYT, and NY Mag. There's also Felix TV, his personal site, his Tumblr, his Medium archive, and, of course, the Twitter feed we all aspire to.

Once upon a time, a feudal Baron or Russian oligarch would have violently silenced an annoying critic like Salmon (example: Piketty - no exit). Today’s system simply found him a safe and silent home. I approve of this inhuman efficiency.

So what comes next? Salmon is right that our system of Human Plutocrats and emergent Corporate entities is more or less stable (think - stability of ancient Egypt). I think Krugman is wrong that establishment economics fully describes what’s happening [2]; we still need to develop eco-econ — which is notecological economics”. Eco-econ is the study of how economic systems recapitulate biological systems; and how economic parasites evolve and thrive [3]. Eco-econ will give us some ideas on how our current system may evolve.

In any event, I’m not entirely pessimistic. Complex adaptive systems have confounded my past predictions. Greece and the EU should have collapsed, but the center held [4]. In any case, there are bigger disruptions coming [5]. We won’t have to worry about Human plutocrats for very long….

See also

and from my stuff

- fn -

[1] I like that 2011 post and the graphic I did then. I’d put “plutocrats” in the upper right these days. The debt ceiling fight of 2011, showed that Corporations and Plutocrats could be smarter than Voters, and the rise of the Tea Party shows that Corporations can be smarter than Voters and Plutocrats. Corporations, and most Plutocrats, are more progressive on sexual orientation and tribal origin than Voters. Corporations have neither gender nor pigment, and they are all tribes of one.

I could write a separate post about why I can’t simply edit the above graphic, but even I find that tech failure too depressing to contemplate.

[2] I don’t think Krugman believes this himself - but he doesn’t yet know how to model his psychohistory framework. He’s still working on the robotics angle.

[3] I just made this up today, but I dimly recall reading that the basic premises of eco-econ have turned up in the literature many times since Darwin described natural selection in biological systems. These days, of course, we apply natural selection to the evolution of the multiverse. Applications to economics are relatively modest.

[4] Perhaps because Corporations and Plutocrats outweighed Voters again — probably better or for worse.

[5] Short version — we are now confident that life-compatible exoplanets are dirt common, so the combination of the Drake Equation (no, it’s not stupid) and the Fermi Paradox means that wandering/curious/communicative civilizations are short-lived. That implies we are short-lived, because we’re like that. The most likely thing to finish us off are our technological heirs.

Friday, September 27, 2013

Evolutionary economics is due for a reboot

Jupiter's red spot is a transient thing. One day the storm will dissipate -- though probably not in our lifetimes.

Life is a transient thing; a deviation from general entropy flows. One day life will go away.

NFL subsidies are a kind of emergent trap, one day they will go away.

Our universe, lives and economies are rife with transient exceptions. In the long run they go away, but we don't live in the long run. In our time frames the exceptions are the rules.

These exceptions don't appear in micro-economics, macro-economics, or even behavioral economics. Macro tells us average temperature, it doesn't describe the tornado bearing down on our house. 

So we need something radically new. Something like evo-Econ or eco-Econ or Canopy Economics; a discipline that focuses on self-organizing emergent phenomena, that recognizes that natural selection is inevitable in a complex adaptive system.

Did I put enough buzz words in there? Because I'm not dumb enough to think these are new ideas. Ecological economics is the application of economics to ecological topics, so not what I'm thinking of, but Thorsten Veblen coined the term Evolutionary Economics in 1898. Judging from the wikipedia article Evo-Econ has veered off in several different directions over the past 110 or so years -- but sometimes it tracks closely to what I'm describing here.

It's due for a renaissance today.

Saturday, March 09, 2013

We do not understand the world in which we live

It is always this way, on the micro and the macro. I didn't understand high school until college. I didn't understand medical school until I was halfway through. I was deep into the corporation before I recognized my surroundings.

Did hunter-gatherers understand their context? 

Three links that tell us we don't understand ours (all via DeLong):

  • The Singularity in Our Past Light-Cone 11/2010. " ... An implacable drive on the part of those networks to expand, to entrain more and more of the world within their own sphere? ... the radical novely and strangeness of these assemblages, which are not even intelligent, as we experience intelligence, yet ceaselessly calculating ..."
  • Twentieth Century Economic History - DeLong: "... What do modern people do? Increasingly, they push forward the corpus of technological and scientific knowledge. They educate each other. They doctor each other. ... They provide other services for each other to take advantage of the benefits of specialization. And they engage in complicated symbolic interactions that have the emergent effect of distributing status and power and coordinating the seven-billion person division of labor of today’s economy...
  • Algorithmic Rape Jokes in the Library of Babel | Quiet Babylon: " ... The Kindle store is awash in books confusingly similar to bestsellers... Icon’s books are created by a patented system... products that generate unique text with simple thesaurus rewriting tools called content spinners... Amazon ‘stocks’ more than 500,000 items from Solid Gold Bomb. These things only barely exist. They are print on demand designs... Talk about crapjects and strange shaper subcultures still gives the whole threat a kind of artisanal feel. The true scale of object spam will be much greater..."

In our work, our hive like human world, we seek those who know and do. Some hide themselves, some advertise. Some are specialists, some are generalists, a few are omni-talented. A very few are powerful, a few are powerless, most are in-betweeners. All are enmeshed in systems of symbiosis and parasitism, all embedded in the "novel assemblage".

This world seems strange to me.

It will seem quaint to whatever thinks in 2113.

Sunday, March 03, 2013

The canid domestication of homo sapiens brutalis

Eight years ago, I wondered if European Distemper killed the Native American dog and added a footnote on an old personal hypothesis ...

Humans and dogs have coexisted for a long time, it is extremely likely that we have altered each other's evolution (symbiotes and parasites always alter each other's genome). ... I thought I'd blogged on my wild speculation that it was the domestication of dogs that allowed humans to develop technology and agriculture (geeks and women can domesticate dogs and use a powerful and loyal ally to defend themselves against thuggish alphas) -- but I can't find that ...

 Happily, others have been pursuing this thought ....

We Didn’t Domesticate Dogs. They Domesticated Us Brian Hare and Vanessa Woods

...With this new ability, these protodogs were worth knowing. People who had dogs during a hunt would likely have had an advantage over those who didn't. Even today, tribes in Nicaragua depend on dogs to detect prey. Moose hunters in alpine regions bring home 56 percent more prey when they are accompanied by dogs. In the Congo, hunters believe they would starve without their dogs.

Dogs would also have served as a warning system, barking at hostile strangers from neighboring tribes. They could have defended their humans from predators.

And finally, though this is not a pleasant thought, when times were tough, dogs could have served as an emergency food supply. Thousands of years before refrigeration and with no crops to store, hunter-gatherers had no food reserves until the domestication of dogs. In tough times, dogs that were the least efficient hunters might have been sacrificed to save the group or the best hunting dogs. Once humans realized the usefulness of keeping dogs as an emergency food supply, it was not a huge jump to realize plants could be used in a similar way.

So, far from a benign human adopting a wolf puppy, it is more likely that a population of wolves adopted us. As the advantages of dog ownership became clear, we were as strongly affected by our relationship with them as they have been by their relationship with us....

The primary predators of humans, of course, are other humans. Women's need for protection against men is particularly acute. So which gender would be most interested in, and capable of, the domestication of a strong and loyal ally? What changes would a dog's presence make to a society and a species, and who would lose most when agriculture made dogs less useful?

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Corporate growth and the unexpected triumph of central planning

The American Economic Review tells us large corporations are taking up a larger share of our GDP ...

The American Economic Review, Vol. 21, No. 1, pp. 10-42

The Growth in the Relative Importance of the Large Corporation in American Economic Life

...  If recent rates of growth were to continue, 80 per cent of non-financial corporate wealth would be in the hands of 200 corporations by ...

... Six industries can boast of one or more "billion dollar" companies ...

Yeah, that said "billion", not "trillion". The article was published in March 1931, so it was presumably written after the crash of '29 but before the full horror of the Great Depression was recognized.

81 years later the Economist has an update:

Free exchange: Land of the corporate giants | The Economist 11/2012

... Businesses have also been getting bigger. A snapshot of the American economy shows huge dispersion in firm size: around a third of American workers are employed by one of the 6m small firms with fewer than 100 workers, and another third are employed by one of the 980 large firms that have over 10,000 workers. But the long-run trend seems to be towards bigger companies. In a 1978 paper Robert Lucas of the University of Chicago documented how average firm size in America had increased over a 70-year period (see left-hand chart)...

... In the past 15 years the assets of the top 50 American companies have risen from around 70% of American GDP to around 130% (see right-hand chart). All of the top ten American firms have been involved in at least one large merger or acquisition over the past 25 years...

...  If size does not keep driving down costs, why do big firms keep expanding? One possibility is that they are seeking to boost profits not by driving down costs but by raising prices. Buying up rivals softens competition and enables firms to charge more...

Accelerated consolidation seems like a predictable outcome of very low interest rates and very high risk aversion [1]; an unintended consequence of economic stimulus and at the zero lower bound. If so, it's a winner-take-all result in a political-economic tax, law and accounting environment fashioned by large corporations for large corporations.

Size can be used to purchase competitors, but it has many more non-market advantages. Size allows, for example, the capture of regulators and the purchase of legislators. Those advantages allow corporations to grow beyond the bounds of classic microeconomics.

And that,  surprisingly, is how we end up with the unexpected triumph of central planning. 

Central planning triumphs because, even if we ignore regulatory capture and senatorial acquisition, corporations are only capitalist on the outside of the cell membrane. Inside the corporation there are no contracts, no currencies, and no markets. Inside the corporation, we have the hallmarks of Soviet central planning - goals and quotas and commissars and imaginary numbers and dictates from the central commission.

Central planning, of course, has its issues. Persistent and eventually fatal issues. When very large corporations fail though, they take a lot of things down with them. If there are truly systemic dysfunctions associated with corporate size, and if large corporations now subsume a large portion of national economic activity, the impact of these weakened monsters may be considerable. 

See also:

[1] Given the way American health care has worked, an aging population may also support increased corporate size.

Monday, September 03, 2012

Do evolutionary strategies evolve?

Biologists study evolutionary "strategies", such as r and K selection.

These are the strategies deployed the Great Programmer as she fiddles with the game states of the multiver... erkkk. Just kidding. These are, of course, human terms for the emergent phenomena of natural selection.

At a more granular level, a predator's niche might be contested on the basis of bigger teeth, stronger claws, faster moves, greater endurance, or bigger brains.

Likewise, microbes, who rule the earth, have a range of "strategies". Symbiosis, parasitism, fast reproduction, encysting and so on.

Presumably the catalog of strategies changes over time. Before there were teeth, big teeth strategies were not available.

Before there were neurons, big brain strategies didn't work.

So that leads to the obvious question, do evolutionary strategies evolve? That is, do new strategies emerge from variations of strategies such that the strategies themselves are subject to selection pressure (a sort of meta-selection I suppose)?

Seems an obvious question, but as of Sept 2012 Google has 9 hits on that precise phrase, none by biologists.

So I guess it's an obvious question, but maybe obviously dumb. I'm surprised though that I didn't find a blog post explaining why it's dumb.

(A bit of context, this came up in a discussion with my 13yo about what species would fill our ecological niche (global multicellular apex predator). Having hit upon the strategy of investing in brains, would natural selection keep returning to the theme?)

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

Microsoft: what really happened?

I finally read the entire How Microsoft Lost Its Mojo Vanity Fair article. It's worth a read for all geeks over 40, despite some obvious flaws. A few quick comments:
  • The article makes Microsoft sound atypical. I don't think it is, I think it's a very typical corporation. It's no more had a lost decade than any other publicly traded company that's not Apple. (Google search is more than 10 years old. What have they done since?). It's only remarkable because it was once so extraordinary.
  • Most modern corporations do something like stacked ranking, they're just not usually so obvious about it. GE's disastrous HR innovations are ubiquitous.
  • Vanity Fair's fact checkers should be stack ranked. Obviously Eichenwald needed help. There are many chronological and tech history errors in the article; I especially don't get what was so remarkable about OS X 10.4/Tiger. 10.3 was the amazing version of OS X.
  • I don't remember mention of the effects of the 1990s Consent decree. That's a curious omission. In the late 90s it was possible that Microsoft would be broken up for business practices that are illegal for de facto monopolies. If Gore had won in 2000 that might have happened. Instead Bush won. (I wonder who Gates funded that year.) Microsoft remained intact; now that seems a Pyrrhic victory.
  • I think Google is following Microsoft's path, they're just not as far along. More importantly, I don't see how Apple can avoid Microsoft's fate. Jobs psyche and power were unique. All publicly traded corporations tend to resemble one another.

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Optimism bias in Potter fan-fic, software development, and government - we can correct

There may be atheists in foxholes, but there are few realists in the C-suite - or the White House.

Optimists rule, and they scorn realists as "pessimists" and "Cassandras" [1]. No matter than Kassandra Krugman is always right - still he is called Crow.

It smells like natural selection. In a universe where entropy rules, denial is a survival trait. Group selection, however, sprinkles a few realists about - grumpily cursed (by Apollo) to see things as they are.

Yes, the glass is half full. But that's good, because the wine is poisoned.

I think we're an oppressed minority.

No wonder realists love empiricism. Facts are our friends. We realists welcome science disguised in Harry Potter fan-fic ...

Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality, Chapter 6: The Planning Fallacy (I added some paragraphs, emphases mine)

... "Muggle researchers have found that people are always very optimistic, like they say something will take two days and it takes ten, or they say it'll take two months and it takes over thirty-five years. Like, they asked students for times by which they were 50% sure, 75% sure, and 99% sure they'd complete their homework, and only 13%, 19%, and 45% of the students finished by those times. And they found that the reason was that when they asked people for their best-case estimates if everything went as well as possible, and their average-case estimates if everything went as normal, they got back answers that were statistically indistinguishable....

.... See, if you ask someone what they expect in the normal case, they visualize what looks like the line of maximum probability at each step along the way - namely, everything going according to plan, without any mistakes or surprises. But actually, since more than half the students didn't finish by the time they were 99% sure they'd be done, reality usually delivers results a little worse than the 'worst-case scenario'....

... It's called the planning fallacy, and the best way to fix it is to ask how long things took the last time you tried them. That's called using the outside view instead of the inside view. But when you're doing something new and can't do that, you just have to be really, really, really pessimistic. Like, so pessimistic that reality actually comes out better than you expected around as often and as much as it comes out worse. It's actually really hard to be so pessimistic that you stand a decent chance of undershooting real life. Like I make this big effort to be gloomy and I imagine one of my classmates getting bitten, but what actually happens is that the surviving Death Eaters attack the whole school to get at me...

It's music to my ears.

In my small world I see this every day. My optimist friend tells me it takes 30 minutes to enter expenses, but I track these things and I know it takes 1-2 hours. Another optimist says we'll deliver a new software feature in two months; I know that five months is optimistic and 8 months more realistic.

When we follow Agile Software Development rules, however, we base our estimates on examples from previous "sprints". We take "take the outside view". It works!

The Outside View is why Chile makes reasonable predictions about government finance, while elected officials force the CBO an artificial Planning Fallacy... (emphases mine ....).

Bias in Government Forecasts | Jeff Frankels (via Mark Thoma)

Why do so many countries so often wander far off the path of fiscal responsibility? Concern about budget deficits has become a burning political issue in the United States, has helped persuade the United Kingdom to enact stringent cuts despite a weak economy, and is the proximate cause of the Greek sovereign-debt crisis, which has grown to engulf the entire eurozone. Indeed, among industrialized countries, hardly a one is immune from fiscal woes.

Clearly, part of the blame lies with voters who don’t want to hear that budget discipline means cutting programs that matter to them, and with politicians who tell voters only what they want to hear. But another factor has attracted insufficient notice: systematically over-optimistic official forecasts.

... Over the period 1986-2009, the bias in official U.S. deficit forecasts averaged 0.4 % of GDP at the one-year horizon, 1% at two years, and 3.1% at three years. Forecasting errors were particularly damaging during the past decade. The U.S. government in 2001-03, for example, was able to enact large tax cuts and accelerated spending measures by forecasting that budget surpluses would remain strong. The Office of Management and Budget long turned out optimistic budget forecasts, no matter how many times it was proven wrong. For eight years, it never stopped forecasting that the budget would return to surplus by 2011, even though virtually every independent forecast showed that deficits would continue into the new decade unabated.

... to get optimistic fiscal forecasts out of the Congressional Budget Office a third, more extreme, strategy was required....

... To understand the third strategy, begin with the requirement that CBO’s baseline forecasts must take their tax and spending assumptions from current law. Elected officials in the last decade therefore hard-wired over-optimistic budget forecasts from CBO by excising from current law expensive policies that they had every intention of pursuing in the future. Often they were explicit about the difference between their intended future policies and the legislation that they wrote down.

Four examples: (i) the continuation of wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (which were paid for with “supplemental” budget requests when the time came, as if they were an unpredictable surprise); (ii) annual revocation of purported cuts in payments to doctors that would have driven them out of Medicare if ever allowed to go into effect; (iii) annual patches for the Alternative Minimum Tax (which otherwise threatened to expose millions of middle class families to taxes that had never been intended to apply to them); and (iv) the intended extension in 2011 of the income tax cuts and estate tax abolition that were legislated in 2001 with a sunset provision for 2010, which most lawmakers knew would be difficult to sustain...

...how can governments’ tendency to satisfy fiscal targets by wishful thinking be overcome? In 2000, Chile created structural budget institutions that may have solved the problem. Independent expert panels, insulated from political pressures, are responsible for estimating the long-run trends that determine whether a given deficit is deemed structural or cyclical.

The result is that, unlike in most industrialized countries, Chile’s official forecasts of growth and fiscal performance have not been overly optimistic, even in booms. The ultimate demonstration of the success of the country’s fiscal institutions: unlike many countries in the North, Chile took advantage of the 2002-2007 expansion to run substantial budget surpluses, which enabled it to loosen fiscal policy in the 2008-2009 recession ... 

Humans are programmed to be foolishly optimistic, but group selection keeps realists around so that famines don't quite kill everyone. 

If we know that our programming is defective, we can correct. Realists know we can learn, because sometimes we do learn.

[1] Update: I should add that Cassandra, was, of course, the ultimate realist. She was always right. Her Curse wasn't pessimism, it was that the Apollo made humans deaf to her warnings. The ancient Greeks apparently understood the planning fallacy. True pessimists probably exist, but they are rare enough that one should consider coexisting clinical depression.

Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Ferret flu: An existential challenge to anti-Darwinist Republicans?

The good news is that it's still hard to design a lethal plague. The 'cost of havoc' is higher than I once thought.

Yes, influenza can be weaponized by guiding Darwinian natural selection - but that takes years of patient work and advanced technologies. It's beyond the grasp of, say, Anonymous.

So this research is good news - for most of us.

Isn't it a problem for the anti-Darwinist wing of the GOP though? The group that opposes the teaching of natural selection? How do their Senators get their heads around this issue?

Monday, December 26, 2011

Spider brains and the evolution of computation

Brains have a big return on investment ...

Tiniest of Spiders Are Loaded With Brains, Researchers Find - NYTimes

... In the smallest spiders, Dr. Eberhard and his colleagues found, the central nervous systems filled nearly 80 percent of the cephalothorax, or body cavity, including 25 percent of the legs.

“The brain tissue of the nervous tissue is metabolically expensive,” he said. “These little spiders are paying a very large price to keep these brains functioning.”

At times, that price includes a deformed body cavity bulging with brain matter, which may in turn compromise the size of the digestive system, Dr. Eberhard said....

Were spider brains this big 200 million years ago? Across all organisms, are brains bigger than they once were? Across all worlds, where does computation stop having positive evolutionary returns?

Sunday, November 27, 2011

What Steve Jobs teaches about psyche and adaptive advantage

Steve Jobs bachelor party consisted of him, a reluctant Avie Tevanian, and one other guy. At that point in his life, he had no true friends. It's not clear how many he ever had, though he had many acolytes and several congenial colleagues.

He was a nasty person, though, like most of us, he improved somewhat with age. He never made it within two sigmas of decent however.

He was also a great gift to me and my family. We got the products of his company, without the displeasure of his companionship. It would, however, have been fascinating to observe his mind. It was extraordinary.

It was also completely unsuited to most of human existence. Even his powers of manipulation could not outweigh the enmity he created throughout most of his life. Were he born at another time, he would have likely died young. Throughout most of human existence his mind would have been a disability, not a gift.

There was a place and time where his mind was perfectly suited, and he had the fortune to be born to that time and to that place.

It's a good lesson on the distinction between adaptive advantage and dysfunctional trait. The distinction is not the trait alone, but its suitability to the environment.

It's also a lesson on the evolution of mind. Human minds are astonishing diverse; in physical terms it's as though a single species could have children with fins and children with wings. A winged mind flies in some times, drowns in others.

Friday, September 23, 2011

Mass disability and the middle class

My paper magazine has another article on the Argentinification of America - Can the Middle Class Be Saved? - The Atlantic.

I'll skim it sometime, but I doubt there's much new there. We know the story.  The bourgeois heart of America is fading. In its place are the poor, the near poor, the rich and the near rich.

I have thought of this, for years, as the rise of mass disability. In the post-AI world the landscape of American employment is monotonous. There's work for people like me, not so much for some I love. Once they would have worked a simple job, but there's not much call for that these days. Simple jobs have been automated; there's only room for a small number of Walmart greeters. Moderately complex jobs have been outsourced.

Within the ecosystem of modern capitalism a significant percentage of Americans are maladapted. I'd guess about 25%; now 35% thanks to the lesser depression.

There are two ways to manage this - excluding the Swiftian solution.

One is to apply the subsidized employment strategies developed for adults with autism and low IQ. Doing this on a large scale would require substantial tax increases, particularly on the wealthy.

Another approach is to bias the economy to a more diverse landscape with a greater variety of employment opportunities -- including manufacturing. This is, depending on whether you are an optimist or realist, the approach of either modern Germany or Nehru's India. This bias compromises "comparative advantage", so we can expect this economy, all else being equal, to have a lower than maximal output. Since in our world the benefits of total productivity flow disproportionately to the wealthy (winner take all), this is equivalent to a progressive tax on an entire society.

So, either way,  the solution is a form of taxation. Either direct taxation and redistribution, or a decrease in overall growth.

I suspect that we will eventually do both.

See also:

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Life in the post-AI world. What's next?

I missed something new and important when I wrote ...

Complexity and air fare pricing: Houston, we have a problem

... planning a plane trip has become absurdly complex. Complex like choosing a cell phone plan, getting a "free" preventive care exam, managing a flex spending account, getting a mortgage, choosing health insurance, reading mobile bills, fighting payment denials, or making safe product choices. Complex like the complexity collapse that took down the western world.

I blame it all on cheap computing. Cheap computing made complexity attacks affordable and ubiquitous...

The important bit is what's coming next and now in the eternal competition.

AI.

No, not the "AIs" of Data, Skynet and the Turing Test [1]. Those are imaginary sentient beings. I mean Artificial Intelligence in the sense it was used in the 1970s -- software that could solve problems that challenge human intelligence. Problems like choosing a bike route.

To be clear, AIs didn't invent mobile phone pricing plans, mortgage traps or dynamic airfare pricing. These "complexity attacks" were made by humans using old school technologies like data mining, communication networks, and simple algorithms.

The AIs, however, are joining the battle. Route finding and autonomous vehicles and (yes) search are the obvious examples. More recently services like Bing flight price prediction and Google Flights are going up against airline dynamic pricing. The AIs are among us. They're just lying low.

Increasingly, as in the esoteric world of algorithmic trading, we'll move into a world of AI vs. AI. Humans can't play there.

We are in the early days of a post-AI world of complexity beyond human ken. We should expect surprises.

What's next?

That depends on where you fall out on the Vinge vs. Stross spectrum. Stross predicts we'll stop at the AI stage because there's no real economic or competitive advantage to implementing and integrating sentience components such as motivation, self-expansion, self-modeling and so on. I suspect Charlie is wrong about that.

AI is the present. Artificial Sentience (AS), alas, is the future.

[1] Recently several non-sentient software programs have been very successful at passing simple versions of the Turing Test, a test designed to measure sentience and consciousness. Human interlocutors can't distinguish Turing Test AIs from human correspondents. So either the Turing Test isn't as good as it was thought to be, or sentience isn't what we thought it was. Or both.

Update 9/20/11: I realized a very good example of what's to come is the current spambot war. Stross, Doctorow and others have half-seriously commented that the deception detection and evasion struggle between spammers and Google will birth the first artificial sentience. For now though it's an AI vs. AI war; a marker of what's to come across all of commercial life.

See also:

Update 9/22: Yuri Milner speaking at the "mini-Davos" recently:
.... Artificial intelligence is part of our daily lives, and its power is growing. Mr. Milner cited everyday examples like Amazon.com’s recommendation of books based on ones we have already read and Google’s constantly improving search algorithm....
I'm not a crackpot. Ok, I am on, but I'm not alone.

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Complexity and air fare pricing: Houston, we have a problem.

Early in my life air travel was almost as expensive as today. At that time, however, we had travel agents and competitive service. It was hassle free.

Later air travel was inexpensive and hassle free. The world felt smaller.

Then it became complicated -- but travel software made up for lost travel agents. We were ahead of the airlines.

Now, it's not so good. It's not just the security hassles. It's not just that the cost of a Minneapolis to Montreal trip has gone up 20% a year for the past four years (now doubled, Hawaii and Europe are cheaper).

It's also that planning a plane trip has become absurdly complex. Complex like choosing a cell phone plan, getting a "free" preventive care exam, managing a flex spending account, getting a mortgage, choosing health insurance, reading mobile bills, fighting payment denials, or making safe product choices. Complex like the complexity collapse that took down the western world.

I blame it all on cheap computing. Cheap computing made complexity attacks affordable and ubiquitous. [1]

In my most recent experience with information asymmetry I found tickets on US Airways for $490 (1 stop) on both Bing and Kayak. When I added a 2nd traveler, however, the price of both tickets increased by $100. (This was harder to spot on the US Airways site as they list deceptive prices, hiding all the "additional fees" airlines carved out to disguise price increases.)

A bit of research (time is how we pay our complexity tax) revealed this happens when the 1st ticket allegedly uses the last "cheap" seat on a flight. The next ticket costs more, and because airlines are loathe to confess this they increase the price of both. That may be so, but it means there's a great incentive to have a few cheap seats that will attract hits from travel sites, but that will turn into high price tickets for the 2nd passenger. This doesn't even have to be planned, natural selection means this kind of emergent "happy accident" of complexity, once discovered, will be leveraged.

This has costs. Maybe high costs. We pay them either by cash lost to legal frauds, or we pay them in time. I think they have more do with the lesser depression than most admit.

It would probably be cheaper for me to just pay my fraud tax to the airlines, but of course I'm not going quietly. I'm studying the (now obsolete) tricks of the trade [2]

  • Shop Tuesday at 3pm ET
  • Start shopping 3.5 months before departure, buy prior to 14 days
  • Tues, Wed and Sat are cheapest days to fly

[1] In the words of James Galbraith (emphases mine): "... The financial world, as it exists, has nothing to do with the commodity world of real exchange economics with its delicate balance of interacting forces. It is the world of technology at play in the form of quasi mass produced legal instruments of uncontrolled complexity. It is the world of, in other words, of evolutionary specialization in the never ending dance of predator and prey...
[2] Seems like there's opportunity for outsourcing complexity management to a new age travel agent and their equivalent for managing the complex scams of everyday life. I fear, however, that only a few of us realize we need help.

Update: Twelve hours after posting I was able to buy both tickets for a total of $200 less than the Saturday price. Same times and planes. I learned ...

  • Email alerts are worthless. I think they're just a way to harvest email for spam (we live on Planet Chum). Instead I took advantage of a Kayak feature -- they save the last search in a short list on main screen. I refreshed this twice daily. Between Saturday night and Sunday night I was able to get both prices at the listed price.
  • I had to keep referencing the search results Kayak provided. The US Airways site kept substituting the flight I didn't want as the "preferred option". I took me 4 runs to get it right. It's hard to explain what they were doing but to succeed I had to carefully track all the flight numbers.
  • Kayak passed my reservation to US Airways as 2 adults. The flight was 1 adult and 1 child. I suspected I needed the Kayak reference to get the price I wanted. Kayak passes its request through URL parameters (only sort of works) so I edited the URL parameter to 1 adult and 1 child.
  • US Airways makes pointless use of Flash to animate simple result display. This is revealing.
See also:

Friday, May 06, 2011

Florida's emergent solution to medicine's failure - high mortality assisted care

Florida's years of GOP misrule have produced libertarian innovations in the care of the aged ...

Investigation Finds Dozens Of Questionable Deaths In Florida Assisted Care : NPR

... A year-long investigation by The Miami Herald and WLRN has turned up at least 70 questionable deaths in Florida assisted living facilities over the last decade. Herald investigative reporter Mike Sallah reads a list of deaths culled from thousands of state documents ...

... We found deaths resulting from residents being deprived of their medication, and from residents being over-medicated. The cases stretched from Miami to the Florida Panhandle. Questionable deaths occurred in both 100-bed facilities and 6-bed facilities. And in almost all 70 cases, there were few or no consequences for caretakers. Florida, once a national leader in policing assisted living facilities, has fallen behind in enforcement, our investigation shows ....

High mortality assisted care facilities are an emergent solution to a failure of modern medicine -- our bodies now outlive our brains. It's even cheaper than railing-free cruise ships [1].

For my own longterm care, I'm looking for a lock-free facility built on a 600 foot cliff with a view. Emily and I call this "a room with a view".

[1] My cruise ships would only accept advanced reservations for and by people with fully intact judgment. Until, that is, we went public and had trouble meeting analyst expectations ...