A half-decent flash for a dSLR costs about $240 now (it used to cost about $400). That's a significant fraction of the cost of a low end dSLR.
On the other hand, the newest pro Nikon CMOS based camera has a maximal ISO of about 24,000. We can reasonably expect entry level dSLRs to have similar light sensitivity within 3 years -- if Nikon or Canon resist then SONY will force the issue.
I assume the 24K ISO on that pro Nikon is extremely noisy, but I'm guessing the 2K ISO isn't bad. With an ISO of 2K only specialists will need to use a flash.
I wonder when the prices will really start to fall? Probably when the used, but still quite good, flashes start to flood the market.
Have you taken a look at Strobist.com? While I understand your point about increasing ISO sensitivity, noise remains a problem that professional and serious amateur photographers fear more than anything. My Canon 30D's expanded ISO hits 3200. Do I ever use anything above ISO 400? Nope. Off-camera flash and the Strobist movement in general means we no longer need worry about noise, because we won't be touching those ISO levels. Flash isn't simply for specialists anymore. It's an artistic tool that people are rapidly learning to love. Check it out.
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