Semi-Daily Journal: "Some of America's trade deficit is not really there--the result of errors and omissions in the data, a 'statistical discrepancy.' Some of America's trade deficit is there, but is not 'unsustainable': the portion of America's trade deficit that is the result of its three 'exorbitant privileges' can continue until the age of the world changes
: American can keep selling international reserve and liquidity services, political risk insurance services, and future immigration options to the central banks and rich of the rest of the world for a long time to come.
Only that portion of the trade deficit that is neither (a) a statistical discrepancy, (b) the result of 'exorbitant privilege', nor (c) clearly a short-run and transitory cyclical phenomenon is cause for concern. How large is that worrisome component of the trade deficit? I don't know. It bothers me that I don't know--because I am supposed to."
Political life insurance options services and immigration options. Wow. Brilliant.
Clearly we could blow that by becoming a xenophobic intolerant culture, but even I think the US is among the least likely of all nations to become profoundly xenophobic. It could, however, develop immense religious intolerance. By implication that would blow away a foundation of our trade privileges.
Saturday, August 16, 2003
We're All on the Grid Together
We're All on the Grid Together
The price of efficiency is connectivity and interdependency. The modern world is a deeply enmeshed set of interacting relationships. They can be twisted and pulled, broken and torn, but they reconnect. They are sticky and self-perpetuating. They limit the power of even the most powerful entities, such as the government of the United States or the leadership of Microsoft, to exert their will.
Ultimately, this interconnected entity begins to take on an identity, a gestalt, even a "will" of its own. Just as organelles became cells, and cells become organisms and organisms became sentients and sentients begat communities begat cultures and so on.
All surviving entities, by the iron statistical rules of natural selection, are optimized for self-perpetuation. This mass of interconnections likely shares this trait. It will "seek" to grow and increase its organization -- in a traditional self-organizing fashion.
More fun things to watch. From a distance!
The price of efficiency is connectivity and interdependency. The modern world is a deeply enmeshed set of interacting relationships. They can be twisted and pulled, broken and torn, but they reconnect. They are sticky and self-perpetuating. They limit the power of even the most powerful entities, such as the government of the United States or the leadership of Microsoft, to exert their will.
Ultimately, this interconnected entity begins to take on an identity, a gestalt, even a "will" of its own. Just as organelles became cells, and cells become organisms and organisms became sentients and sentients begat communities begat cultures and so on.
All surviving entities, by the iron statistical rules of natural selection, are optimized for self-perpetuation. This mass of interconnections likely shares this trait. It will "seek" to grow and increase its organization -- in a traditional self-organizing fashion.
More fun things to watch. From a distance!
Friday, August 15, 2003
Semi-Daily Journal
Semi-Daily Journal:
"Never in any two-year period in the modern American economy's experience have hours fallen so fast. Given what has happened to hours in the recent past, the standard historical pattern would lead you to expect output to be falling at 2.5% per year or more--and you would expect productivity growth to be negative, not positive and in excess of 4% per year.
We are indeed in uncharted waters. Not that we should mind--extraordinarily rapid productivity growth is a wonderful gift. But it does pose different problems for economic management to solve than the ones we had gotten used to... "
Krugman covered a similar set of topics, focusing on unemployment. Where is this productivity? I don't see it in the workplace. Is it a side-effect of China's lowering the cost of many manufacturing inputs?
"Never in any two-year period in the modern American economy's experience have hours fallen so fast. Given what has happened to hours in the recent past, the standard historical pattern would lead you to expect output to be falling at 2.5% per year or more--and you would expect productivity growth to be negative, not positive and in excess of 4% per year.
We are indeed in uncharted waters. Not that we should mind--extraordinarily rapid productivity growth is a wonderful gift. But it does pose different problems for economic management to solve than the ones we had gotten used to... "
Krugman covered a similar set of topics, focusing on unemployment. Where is this productivity? I don't see it in the workplace. Is it a side-effect of China's lowering the cost of many manufacturing inputs?
Believe It, or Not
Believe It, or Not:
"... I don't pretend to know why America is so much more infused with religious faith than the rest of the world. But I do think that we're in the middle of another religious Great Awakening, and that while this may bring spiritual comfort to many, it will also mean a growing polarization within our society.
But mostly, I'm troubled by the way the great intellectual traditions of Catholic and Protestant churches alike are withering, leaving the scholarly and religious worlds increasingly antagonistic. I worry partly because of the time I've spent with self-satisfied and unquestioning mullahs and imams, for the Islamic world is in crisis today in large part because of a similar drift away from a rich intellectual tradition and toward the mystical."
If there's one thing Islamic and Christian Fundamentalists might agree on, it's that secular humanists are the true enemy.
This will be interesting to watch ... from a distance!
"... I don't pretend to know why America is so much more infused with religious faith than the rest of the world. But I do think that we're in the middle of another religious Great Awakening, and that while this may bring spiritual comfort to many, it will also mean a growing polarization within our society.
But mostly, I'm troubled by the way the great intellectual traditions of Catholic and Protestant churches alike are withering, leaving the scholarly and religious worlds increasingly antagonistic. I worry partly because of the time I've spent with self-satisfied and unquestioning mullahs and imams, for the Islamic world is in crisis today in large part because of a similar drift away from a rich intellectual tradition and toward the mystical."
If there's one thing Islamic and Christian Fundamentalists might agree on, it's that secular humanists are the true enemy.
This will be interesting to watch ... from a distance!
Thursday, August 14, 2003
QuickTopic: free bulletin boards (message boards) and collaborative document review groupware
QuickTopic: free bulletin boards (message boards) and collaborative document review groupware: "or any one-topic group discussion, use the QuickTopic free bulletin boards instead of just email! Your messages will be in a private central place, and each of your friends can opt to participate by email or just use the web forum. That's because QuickTopic's super-easy single-topic web bulletin boards are also fully email-enabled: you can get and post messages via email. Use it on your web site too. Over 200,000 served."
Like Yahoo Groups, but I think anyone can participate without registering.
Like Yahoo Groups, but I think anyone can participate without registering.
Singularity Sky: Archive Entry From Brad DeLong's Webjournal (Fermi's Paradox revisited)
Singularity Sky: Archive Entry From Brad DeLong's Webjournal:
"All good responses, though with one exception no-one was immodest enough to claim the paradox was solved. Remember, it's not MY paradox. It's been puzzled over by people far smarter than I..."
The catch of the Fermi Paradox though is that if even ONE civilization propagates across star systems, they quickly (within galactic time scales) cover the galaxy. So the sieve preventing that from happening has to be verytight.
That's what's interesting about the paradox. What could be THAT tight? Mats proposes a common solution to the paradox, but that solution implies a universal law -- all civilizations crash. Matt argues this by analogy to biological species, but I'm not sure the analogy holds. For that matter, why use a species as the analogy rather than a 'kingdom'?
We could easily become extinct, for example, but our 'memes' could propagate into abiologic entities.
James suggest exploring with robots. I suspect no biological entities actually every cross star systems -- that might be a hard barrier. But that leads into the post-singular category of answers to Fermi's paradox.
That's the tight sieve I prefer. Civilizations are never stable. They either crash and burn (Mats preference) or they go post-singular. When they are post-singular they aren't interested in exploration. It's not something post-singular entities ever do. I don't know why, I'm definitely pre-singular.
So, there might be a universal law, analogous to Godel's Theorem. 'Any nervous system complex enough to create a technologic civilization will consume itself'. Either it consumes itself by self-destruction (Mats assertion) or by becoming post-singular (an alternative). Stability does not occur. Either outcome, is incompatible with exploration -- the first for obvious reasons, the second because of something characteristic of post-singular entities. (So like any answer to a good paradox, this just shifts the question a bit ...)
Posted by: John Faughnan on August 14, 2003 01:50 PM "
"All good responses, though with one exception no-one was immodest enough to claim the paradox was solved. Remember, it's not MY paradox. It's been puzzled over by people far smarter than I..."
The catch of the Fermi Paradox though is that if even ONE civilization propagates across star systems, they quickly (within galactic time scales) cover the galaxy. So the sieve preventing that from happening has to be verytight.
That's what's interesting about the paradox. What could be THAT tight? Mats proposes a common solution to the paradox, but that solution implies a universal law -- all civilizations crash. Matt argues this by analogy to biological species, but I'm not sure the analogy holds. For that matter, why use a species as the analogy rather than a 'kingdom'?
We could easily become extinct, for example, but our 'memes' could propagate into abiologic entities.
James suggest exploring with robots. I suspect no biological entities actually every cross star systems -- that might be a hard barrier. But that leads into the post-singular category of answers to Fermi's paradox.
That's the tight sieve I prefer. Civilizations are never stable. They either crash and burn (Mats preference) or they go post-singular. When they are post-singular they aren't interested in exploration. It's not something post-singular entities ever do. I don't know why, I'm definitely pre-singular.
So, there might be a universal law, analogous to Godel's Theorem. 'Any nervous system complex enough to create a technologic civilization will consume itself'. Either it consumes itself by self-destruction (Mats assertion) or by becoming post-singular (an alternative). Stability does not occur. Either outcome, is incompatible with exploration -- the first for obvious reasons, the second because of something characteristic of post-singular entities. (So like any answer to a good paradox, this just shifts the question a bit ...)
Posted by: John Faughnan on August 14, 2003 01:50 PM "
Australian spy chief agrees, catastrophic attack a certainty - Aug. 13, 2003
CNN.com - Spy boss warns of terror strike - Aug. 13, 2003: "Australia's spy chief has warned a 'catastrophic' terror attack -- possibly involving biological, chemical or nuclear weapons -- is a certainty and that the war against terrorism is far from over. "
What he actually said was milder, but consistent: "There is genuine concern that a catastrophic attack is a certainty and only a matter of time -- a point on which I'm inclined to agree."
Nothing new here, only saying what just about every security expert has said. Nothing fundamental has changed; technology advances and the cost of defense rises faster than the cost of offense. At the moment the would-be attackers have motivation and money, but even if that went away the really fundamental issues would remain. The fundamental issues are all about technology.
What he actually said was milder, but consistent: "There is genuine concern that a catastrophic attack is a certainty and only a matter of time -- a point on which I'm inclined to agree."
Nothing new here, only saying what just about every security expert has said. Nothing fundamental has changed; technology advances and the cost of defense rises faster than the cost of offense. At the moment the would-be attackers have motivation and money, but even if that went away the really fundamental issues would remain. The fundamental issues are all about technology.
DeLocalizer 1.1 - VersionTracker
DeLocalizer 1.1 - VersionTracker
Generally good reports on this one, MAY be worth trying. Savings seem somewhat modest though -- 50-100 MBs. In the media world that's only a few days of picture taking.
Generally good reports on this one, MAY be worth trying. Savings seem somewhat modest though -- 50-100 MBs. In the media world that's only a few days of picture taking.
Wednesday, August 13, 2003
Printing images: aspect ratio problems not just for digital photography!
Apple - Discussions - Setting camera so you don't have to crop: "Printing is the curse of digital photography.
Not true. Printing is the curse of ALL photography and has been for a hundred years. 35 mm. has been the most popular format for probably fifty years. Until very recently (with 4X6 paper), there was NO paper available that matched the 3X2 aspect ratio. We had a choice of 3.5X5 or 5X7 or 8X10. The 8X10 was perfect for a 4X5 view camera used by professional portrait photographers. The smaller sizes were 'almost' the 4X5 aspect ratio.
In the old days, the labs did the cropping and most snapshooters never realized it. Now, the burden is on us.
Although I personally prefer prints, photos on the screen are gradually becoming popular. The 4X3 aspect ratio matches computer screens. Unfortunately, it's good only for landscape shots. Portrait shots have blank space on both sides of the image. Oh well, can't have everything.
Personally, my wish is for everything - cameras, film, paper, computer screens, etc. - to match the 3X2 format (I've been shooting 35 mm. for over 40 years). However that's not going to happen. The best thing about standards is that there are so many to choose from! "
A correction to a claim I made that printing was the curse of digital photography!
Comparing these ratios we can sort them as follows. It turns out that 5x7 prints are mid-way crop between 35mm and most digital. So printing at 5x7 may be a better choice for many digital prints. These are a bit big for many albums, but if one only prints a few images maybe it's not a bad choice.
4x5: 0.80 (view camera and 8x10 prints)
3x4: 0.75 (most digital cameras and Apple's PhotoBook)
5x7: 0.71 (print size)
3.5x5: 0.7 (print size)
2x3: 0.67 (35mm and 4x6 prints)
Not true. Printing is the curse of ALL photography and has been for a hundred years. 35 mm. has been the most popular format for probably fifty years. Until very recently (with 4X6 paper), there was NO paper available that matched the 3X2 aspect ratio. We had a choice of 3.5X5 or 5X7 or 8X10. The 8X10 was perfect for a 4X5 view camera used by professional portrait photographers. The smaller sizes were 'almost' the 4X5 aspect ratio.
In the old days, the labs did the cropping and most snapshooters never realized it. Now, the burden is on us.
Although I personally prefer prints, photos on the screen are gradually becoming popular. The 4X3 aspect ratio matches computer screens. Unfortunately, it's good only for landscape shots. Portrait shots have blank space on both sides of the image. Oh well, can't have everything.
Personally, my wish is for everything - cameras, film, paper, computer screens, etc. - to match the 3X2 format (I've been shooting 35 mm. for over 40 years). However that's not going to happen. The best thing about standards is that there are so many to choose from! "
A correction to a claim I made that printing was the curse of digital photography!
Comparing these ratios we can sort them as follows. It turns out that 5x7 prints are mid-way crop between 35mm and most digital. So printing at 5x7 may be a better choice for many digital prints. These are a bit big for many albums, but if one only prints a few images maybe it's not a bad choice.
4x5: 0.80 (view camera and 8x10 prints)
3x4: 0.75 (most digital cameras and Apple's PhotoBook)
5x7: 0.71 (print size)
3.5x5: 0.7 (print size)
2x3: 0.67 (35mm and 4x6 prints)
Google Web Search Features: The Google calculator
Google Web Search Features: "Calculator
To use Google's built-in calculator function, simply enter the expression you'd like evaluated in the search box and hit the Enter key or click the Google Search button. The calculator can evaluate mathematical expressions involving basic arithmetic (5+2*2 or 2^20), more complicated math (sine(30 degrees) or e^(i pi)+1), units of measure and conversions (100 miles in kilometers or 160 pounds * 4000 feet in Calories), and physical constants (1 a.u./c or G*mass of earth/radius of earth^2). You can also experiment with other numbering systems, including hexadecimal and binary."
I've posted previously about Google's insidious invasion of the PC. No-one else does the "computer as network" as Google does.
Having an always at hand super convenient scientific calculator is actually kind of useful. Quicker than having to bring up the windows calculator. They don't say how to find documentation (ex: do they do financial calculations, such as interest payments)?
The Web features page is worth bookmarking and returning too.
To use Google's built-in calculator function, simply enter the expression you'd like evaluated in the search box and hit the Enter key or click the Google Search button. The calculator can evaluate mathematical expressions involving basic arithmetic (5+2*2 or 2^20), more complicated math (sine(30 degrees) or e^(i pi)+1), units of measure and conversions (100 miles in kilometers or 160 pounds * 4000 feet in Calories), and physical constants (1 a.u./c or G*mass of earth/radius of earth^2). You can also experiment with other numbering systems, including hexadecimal and binary."
I've posted previously about Google's insidious invasion of the PC. No-one else does the "computer as network" as Google does.
Having an always at hand super convenient scientific calculator is actually kind of useful. Quicker than having to bring up the windows calculator. They don't say how to find documentation (ex: do they do financial calculations, such as interest payments)?
The Web features page is worth bookmarking and returning too.
The 'Zero Dropout' Miracle: Alas! Alack! A Texas Tall Tale
The 'Zero Dropout' Miracle: Alas! Alack! A Texas Tall Tale: "ROBERT KIMBALL, an assistant principal at Sharpstown High School, sat smack in the middle of the 'Texas miracle.' His poor, mostly minority high school of 1,650 students had a freshman class of 1,000 that dwindled to fewer than 300 students by senior year. And yet, and this is the miracle, not one dropout to report!"
And Paige/Bush have given us "No Student Left in School".
Anyone familiar with any kind of clinical trial could have told Bush/Paige that the easiest way to show therapeutic efficacy is selective drop out. If you can get non-responders to leave a clinical trial faster than responders, and ignore than effect, you get great results.
Hence "intent to treat" analysis.
Their are parallels to Enron too. Give managers targets without resources, and subject them to very powerful incentives and harsh punishments. The most incorruptible, the most talented, and the most fortunate will find other jobs. The unfortunate, the average human being, those without choices, will play the game. The numbers will look terrific.
Hey, it worked for the Soviet Union! Their wheat production data looked great. Too bad about the famine.
Too bad George Bush never reads history.
And Paige/Bush have given us "No Student Left in School".
Anyone familiar with any kind of clinical trial could have told Bush/Paige that the easiest way to show therapeutic efficacy is selective drop out. If you can get non-responders to leave a clinical trial faster than responders, and ignore than effect, you get great results.
Hence "intent to treat" analysis.
Their are parallels to Enron too. Give managers targets without resources, and subject them to very powerful incentives and harsh punishments. The most incorruptible, the most talented, and the most fortunate will find other jobs. The unfortunate, the average human being, those without choices, will play the game. The numbers will look terrific.
Hey, it worked for the Soviet Union! Their wheat production data looked great. Too bad about the famine.
Too bad George Bush never reads history.
BBC NEWS | Health | Creatine 'boosts brain power'
BBC NEWS | Health | Creatine 'boosts brain power': "The dietary supplement creatine - known to improve athletic performance - can also boost memory and intelligence, researchers claim. "
And it "... is also notorious for creating an unpleasant odour in the vicinity of the taker."
Great. A room full of very smelly family physicians desperately trying to finish our q6 year board exam. We'll have to increase the ventilation in classrooms. Let's not even think about pre-meds. Or 6 year old children who are on the borderline between special education programs and mainstreaming.
Wait until we find out that the oxidative stress in Creatine boosted neurons causes accelerated neuronal aging and premature dementia. Since the most obvious medical indication is for people with early dementing disorders, we might actually get to study this in a clinical trial. (Compared to the controls over a 12 month period we'd see early improvement but later worsening. Presumably we could study rats first!)
And what causes that smell, anyway?
Only the beginning of the cognitive enhancement pharmacopia. If you thought performance enhancers in the olympics were bad news, you ain't seen nothing yet.
And it "... is also notorious for creating an unpleasant odour in the vicinity of the taker."
Great. A room full of very smelly family physicians desperately trying to finish our q6 year board exam. We'll have to increase the ventilation in classrooms. Let's not even think about pre-meds. Or 6 year old children who are on the borderline between special education programs and mainstreaming.
Wait until we find out that the oxidative stress in Creatine boosted neurons causes accelerated neuronal aging and premature dementia. Since the most obvious medical indication is for people with early dementing disorders, we might actually get to study this in a clinical trial. (Compared to the controls over a 12 month period we'd see early improvement but later worsening. Presumably we could study rats first!)
And what causes that smell, anyway?
Only the beginning of the cognitive enhancement pharmacopia. If you thought performance enhancers in the olympics were bad news, you ain't seen nothing yet.
Tuesday, August 12, 2003
Fair and Balanced: Archive Entry From Brad DeLong's Webjournal
Fair and Balanced: Archive Entry From Brad DeLong's Webjournal
I am all in favor of balanced fairness, and of a fairly balanced foul. But not of foul acts by the not so fair.
All in all, Fair and Balanced. See also the FL Herald.
I am all in favor of balanced fairness, and of a fairly balanced foul. But not of foul acts by the not so fair.
All in all, Fair and Balanced. See also the FL Herald.
MacInTouch Home Page: Apple/Macintosh news, information and analysis
MacInTouch Home Page: Apple/Macintosh news, information and analysis: "Doug's AppleScripts for iTunes released two new free scripts: Google Lyric Search searches for lyric sites with Google using information from the current or selected track. And Whack Current Track deletes the current track from all playlists and moves its file to the Trash. Also available is an updated version of Now Playing in iChat AV, which displays the currently playing track info in an iChat AV status message. "
Apple - Discussions - iPhoto Design Goal: 30,000 photos on a G3
Apple - Discussions - iPhoto Design Goal: 30,000 photos on a G3
Dear Apple:
30,000 photos on a 400MHz G3 with good performance and usability.
That should be the MINIMUM design goal for iPhoto. It's technically doable (a @1988 IBM XT could handle 30,000 records in a database, and OS X can handle >> 30,000 objects in the file system), as long as you don't make it "easy" for users to attempt to resize all 30,000 thumbnails all at once.
iTunes can handle a comparable database with elegance.
If you can't do this with your "free" bundled software, then SELL something better than iPhoto!!
If you don't have a good alternative by next spring, I'll give up on OS X and build an XP server rather than buying my 2004. No joke, it's that bad!! Adobe's Album software is looking pretty good to me.
john
PS. I'm a heavy duty iPhotoLibrarian users. It's a nice hack, but segregating images is stupid. I want my albums to cross 100 years of images. Remember, iTunes works.
[meta: jfaughnan, jgfaughnan, iPhoto, performance, Apple, OS X]
Dear Apple:
30,000 photos on a 400MHz G3 with good performance and usability.
That should be the MINIMUM design goal for iPhoto. It's technically doable (a @1988 IBM XT could handle 30,000 records in a database, and OS X can handle >> 30,000 objects in the file system), as long as you don't make it "easy" for users to attempt to resize all 30,000 thumbnails all at once.
iTunes can handle a comparable database with elegance.
If you can't do this with your "free" bundled software, then SELL something better than iPhoto!!
If you don't have a good alternative by next spring, I'll give up on OS X and build an XP server rather than buying my 2004. No joke, it's that bad!! Adobe's Album software is looking pretty good to me.
john
PS. I'm a heavy duty iPhotoLibrarian users. It's a nice hack, but segregating images is stupid. I want my albums to cross 100 years of images. Remember, iTunes works.
[meta: jfaughnan, jgfaughnan, iPhoto, performance, Apple, OS X]
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