Monday, June 07, 2004

The Law of Preservation of Quality: The Atlantic and The Economist

The Atlantic Online | Back Issues

Ok, there's no such law. But is it entirely coincidental that as The Economist has gone into decline, The Atlantic has emerged from abyss?

UN Security Council Resolution on Iraq: Yes France, you were right

The New York Times > International > Middle East > United Nations: U.S. and Iraq Submit Plan to Security Council Session
Mr. Powell said the American military would still have the right to imprison Iraqis, though he said internment would be resorted to only 'where this is necessary for imperative reasons of security.' He pledged that members of the multinational force would always act 'consistently with their obligations under the law of armed conflict, including the Geneva Conventions.'
From what I can tell, the resolution is basically America's way of saying "Yeah, France, you were right. We screwed up. Now we will do it the way we should have done it from the beginning."

Bush will never admit to the screw-up or the reversal, but this is a good thing.

Sunday, June 06, 2004

Bill Joy: A man after my own heart

The New York Times > Magazine > Encounter: Proceed With Caution
The other Bill Joy, however, would very much like to prevent the inevitable from happening. Four years ago in an article he wrote for Wired magazine, Joy declared that the headlong race in biotechnology and nanotechnology might prove catastrophic. In the time since, he has continued to explore and advance this concern. Joy says he thinks the probability of a ''civilization-changing event'' is most likely in the double digits, perhaps as high as 50 percent.

I'm not as smart as Joy (ok, very few people are), so it's nice to have someone like him with my cheerful perspective on life.

So what happened to journalism in the 90s?

Why Oh Why Can't We Have a Better Press Corps? : Archive Entry From Brad DeLong's Webjournal
Time to ask why the media has fallen so far. Theories?

Here are mine:

1. The government developed a set of techniques and discipline for managing the media. The need for sources was always the achilles heal of the media -- it just took a while for government to discover how to use this lever.

2. Economics. Print media is stressed by net advertising and the decline in classifieds revenue. Broadcast is stressed by cable. Financial weakness means more advertising levers to pull, and less ability to defend.

3. Corruption. Journalists saw too many stupid people getting rich ripping the system off. No-one seemed to care. Finally they gave up and decided to get their piece.

Are there historical analogies?

Corrupt absolutely ...

The New York Times > Magazine > The Maestro Slips Out of Tune (Krugman)
... The less generous interpretation is that Greenspan simply abused his position to help his friends. Kenneth Thomas, a finance professor at the Wharton School, has calculated that Greenspan visits the White House about once a week, as The Christian Science Monitor reported last month, and that is almost four times as often as he did when Clinton was president.

Part of the genius of George Bush's political operatives is their ability to persuade people (Colin Powell, Tony Blair) to betray their principles, to say and do things they will later regret, in support of a presumed shared cause. Paul O'Neill, Bush's first treasury secretary, falls into the same category: he was a moderate Republican who for a time played good soldier, defending the Bush tax cuts despite private qualms, to help the new president -- a man he thought shared his values -- by giving him an early political victory. And guess what: O'Neill was a close friend of Greenspan's.

What is the secret of Bush's capacity to corrupt those around him? Is it the combination of great power together with a cult of absolute loyalty and ruthless punishment?

Sherron (Enron) Watkins on Bush

The New York Times > Magazine > Questions for Sherron Watkins: Life After Whistle-Blowing
Are you a Democrat or a Republican?

I am not a registered anything. I vote both parties. I did vote for Bush. My husband did, too. Now we're A.B.B. -- Anyone but Bush. We have lost the moral high ground in this country.

Sherron is the world's most famous whistle blower. Like most who expose crimes, she pays an economic price for integrity. I hope the respect of a few of us counts for something.

One of the great ironies about Bush is that he speaks of integrity more than any president since Carter, while spreading abuse and corruption through his actions and policies. It's an astounding gap between speech and action, between image and reality. As to what Bush really believes, I don't know. It may well be that he believes what he says.

Why I Never Hire Brilliant Men - a lost article from The American Magazine, 1924

The New York Times > Business > Your Money > Digital Domain: What's Google's Secret Weapon? An Army of Ph.D.'s
Until recently, when computer science students completed their long Ph.D. training and stepped into daylight, they were treated warily by industry employers. American business has had to overcome its longtime suspicion of intellect. 'Why I Never Hire Brilliant Men,' an article published in the 1920's in the American magazine, is a typical specimen of an earlier era. In modern times, computer scientists are hired, but a doctorate can still be viewed as the sign of a character defect, its holder best isolated in an aerie.

The aversion of industry to the "over-educated" is a real phenomena. I can't comment on whether it's a wise prejudice, I've no data. (I'm an MD & MS, not a PhD. Hard to say which is a tougher slog -- the PhD depends very much on field and on advisor. An MD does not require any creativity, indeed creativity can be a disadvantage. Most PhD's need to have quite a bit of the creative inclination.)

I'd love to read that article however: "Why I Never Hire Brilliant Men", (The?) American Magazine, 1924?. Oddly enough, it's not on the net! In fact, the only reference to it comes from a "Joel on Software" discussion. I'll have to start looking into news repositories.

Saturday, June 05, 2004

NetGear access point is wide open ...

SecurityFocus HOME Mailing List: BugTraq
The Netgear WG602 Accesspoint contains an undocumented administrative account...

...Any user logging in with the username "super" and the password "5777364" is in complete control of the device.

NetGear has a patch out. This appears to have been put in by their Taiwanese OEM. This OEM makes other devices, I'd suggest reading the article and trying this on one's own router.

I have two routers in serial from two vendors. One can be controlled only via hardwired serial cable. I always thought I was being a bit overly cautious ...

This is worse than the usual Microsoft incompetence. The responsible OEM should be bankrupted. NetGear's web site doesn't say anything yet. That's probably the worse way to handle this. I don't think I'll be buying much from them in the future.

Incompetence at the FBI, CIA and ?

The New York Times > National > Spain and U.S. at Odds on Mistaken Terror Arrest
In pursuing what proved to be a flawed case against Mr. Mayfield, the F.B.I. was also beset by internal dissension between officials in Portland and Washington, a language barrier with the Spanish, and a fingerprint examination that the bureau now concedes was flawed from the start...

...t after conducting their own tests, Spanish law enforcement officials said they reported back to the F.B.I. in an April 13 memo that the match was "conclusively negative." Yet for for five weeks, F.B.I. officials insisted their analysis was correct.

In Portland, meanwhile, investigators were quickly building their case against Mr. Mayfield, 37, a Muslim convert, and arrested him on May 6 on a material witness warrant, a technique that civil liberties advocates charge that the Bush administration has abused in an effort to fight terrorism. Despite never being charged with an actual crime, court transcripts and interviews with Mr. Mayfield show he was told that he was being investigated in connection with crimes punishable by death and jailed for 14 days. On May 24, after the Spaniards had linked that same print from the plastic bag to the Algerian national, Mr. Mayfield's case was thrown out. The F.B.I. issued him a highly unusual official apology, and his ordeal became a stunning embarrassment to the United States government.

The FBI has a lot of problems. The CIA has a lot of problems.

So, what's going on? What's wrong with the way we build our security networks and we incent people and run them?

Maybe we do need an entirely new infrastructure, run by very different people. I'd recommend a balance of nerds, geeks and intellectuals with military and business sorts. I suspect the problems in the CIA and FBI have to do with the temperaments of the people who run them and, in turn, they people they like to hire. The fingerprint problems appear to be due to a lack understanding of basic science. Like all other tests, fingerprint matches have varying methodologies and intrinsic false positive and false negative rates. Matches are probabilistic. The FBI appears to be in denial about this. They need smarter people.

On the nature of warriors and the responsibility of protection

The New York Times > Opinion > Op-Ed Columnist: Beating Specialist Baker
If the U.S. military treats one of its own soldiers this way — allowing him to be battered, and lying to cover it up — then imagine what happens to Afghans and Iraqis.

President Bush attributed the problems uncovered at Abu Ghraib to "a few American troops who dishonored our country." Mr. Bush, the problems go deeper than a few bad apples.

An ironic title for this article -- remember "Finding Private Ryan"?

Kristoff never mentions ethnicity, but a white soldier would have made an unconvincing terrorist in this exercise. I wonder about the ethnicity of the other soldiers in this training exercise.

This was an accident in training. There are a few lessons, none suprising. Our soldiers are young, strong, and as violent as most young, strong, males. The people who set up this training exercise showed poor judgment. The army covers up its mistakes. The survivors of mistakes get "blamed" for the mistake.

In such a world it is not surprising that Iraqi prisoners will be abused at least as badly as American prisoners in the worst US jails. The only protection is law, lawyers, an observant press and the power of shame.

American politicians have removed much of the protection of law from US prisons. The Bush regime has removed it from US POWs. Since this is the only protection from abuse that will otherwise occur, it is Bush and his leadership that bear full responsibility for these abuses -- not a handful of soldiers.

Friday, June 04, 2004

Structured Procrastination - a 1995 John Perry essay

Structured Procrastination

Written 10 years ago, but rediscovered. In my case, by reading DeLong. Now I understand what I do I can get better at it. A plan for a personal pyramid scheme ...

Faces of US dead - Iraq War

washingtonpost.com: Faces of the Fallen

A gallery of the fallen. Ages 18 and up. The site provides a picture and lists rank, age, home address and context of death.

Quantum Entanglement: what does it tell about the nature of reality?

Quantum Entanglement and Information
NPR's science show interviewed a Waterloo physicist on the implications of a recent announcement. Researchers were able to use quantum entanglement amongst three atoms to enhance clock accuracy.

This is one of those announcements that causes some people to nod off, some people to start figuring out investment angles, and others to look for very remote housing locations. The guest speaker pointed out that, in the long run, it was probably no more significant than the deployment of fire, agriculture and electricity. I believe him.

Most of all, however, the call forced me to listen to yet another description of quantum entanglement. Hearing it in the context of industrial applications (quantum encyrption is now a real application, clock enhancement, etc) finally caused me to crack.

Quantum entanglement is just too weird to "fit" a naturally occuring universe. I can see why it freaked Einstein out.

I don't think it even fits all that well with an accidental artifactual universe -- though I suppose it might suggest something about the intent of the designer.

I don't think it fits with an omniscient deity in a physical universe. Too quirky.

No, in all the bizarre scenarios for the nature of reality, it's the closest fit for a simulation. Not a designed part of the simulation, but rather an artifact of the underlying computational system. Were I writing science fiction, I'd say "we" uncovered an imperfection or flaw in the simulation, an artifact resulting from a limitation of the underlying system. Now, as we pull on this thread, we're revealing more and more of what lies ahead.

In the story when we start using quantum computers fully, we'll be starting to indirectly access the computation substrate underlying our so-called reality. Hmm. I wonder what happens then? A buffer overflow might have some interesting consequences. Or maybe, as we start to run "parasitic processes" against our computational framework, we'll merely slow everything down (not that we'd notice directly -- except we might be able to measure some anomalies in our quantum computers).

An alternative narrative would be that the universe is indeed "god's computer" (hey, that dark matter has to do something, right? :-) -- but we're not an intended part of the computation. So it might be running simulation, but we're a side-effect. Or maybe the universe is simply a peripheral.

In this story we're parasitic processes, a sort of common side-effect. The universe was designed for optimum computation, with as few parasites as possible, but these things happen. Maybe it's a fundamental design flaw. As long as we don't consume too much CPU power we're not worth squashing. But once we crank up those quanta ... This also explains why the univese seems so quiet. Other "parasitic processes" occur, but shortly after they develop advanced technologies they start consuming a lot of "CPU" power. So they get squashed.

I think that house in the wilderness, without electricity, is starting to sound better all the time.

I'm sure Vernor Vinge is writing a story about this even now.

Thursday, June 03, 2004

The well oiled white house ...

Talking Points Memo: by Joshua Micah Marshall: May 30, 2004 - June 05, 2004 Archives
Having said all that, beside the possibility that the White House's favored Iraqi exile was an Iranian agent, that the spy chief just got canned, that the OSD is wired to polygraphs, and that the president has had to retain outside counsel in the investigation into which members of his staff burned one of the country's own spies, I'd say the place is being run like a pretty well-oiled machine.

The way the Tenet Termination was executed, as a strange afterthought by GWB as he boarded a helicopter, is worrisome. I want to see Bush retired in November for the creation of bad policy and incompetent execution of his stated policies. In addition, if he's committed illegal acts then he should be prosecuted or impeached -- though that should be done with care and only for dire need. I think the persecutory impeachment of Clinton distracted the nation from the threats we faced then and now.

What worries me more is GWB's psychic health. Anyone who's taken the Presidency is a dozen times tougher, nastier, more ruthless and driven than anyone most of us ever know -- but GWB is beginning to worry me.

Wednesday, June 02, 2004

The Media Must Be Stopped! We must destroy freedom in order to save it ...

Fafblog! the whole worlds only source for Fafblog.
Recently a few distressed voices in the wilderness have been raised in alarm at the newest, darkest, and most dangerous threat to America's success in the war on terror: the media. Morton Kondracke recently pointed out that the media 'is in danger of talking the United States into defeat in Iraq. And the results would be catastrophic.' He goes on to pin the West's Iraq problems squarely where they belong: on the media's fixation with the Abu Ghraib scandal. How astute, Mr Kondracke! For it was in fact the press's obsession with military torture that allowed the the Shiite and Sunni insurgencies to claim whole cities from the American occupation.

But what to do about this pernicious enemy within? Analytical wunderkind and concerned lover of law Glenn Reynolds muses, 'Freedom of the press, as it exists today (and didn't exist, really, until the 1960s) is unlikely to survive if a majority -- or even a large and angry minority -- of Americans comes to conclude that the press is untrustworthy and unpatriotic.' Quite true, Professor Reynolds. And America will likely need that angry minority if we're to inforce patriotism on our press, and end the nightmarish salvo of information and journalism that threatens to cripple the war effort. For this is not merely a war for freedom. Indeed, it is also a war against freedom - specifically, that freedom which seeks to destroy freedom.

These concepts may be too complex and nuanced for the unsophisticated or Democrats to fully grasp, but the Medium Lobster will endeavor to explain. A free-loving society must protect not only its freedoms, but the society which enables those freedoms to be protected, for if that society was to be destroyed, then all freedoms would disappear. In order for freedom to persist, we must outlaw the freedom to destroy or damage society. Thus, freedom cries out for us to destroy those freedoms which would destroy freedom, such as murder, genocide, violent revolution, sedition, criticism of good wars, publication of disheartening news regarding those wars, criticism of the Commander In Chief during wartime, the teaching of seditious literature, obscenity ...

I can't complain about the great job the Bush regime is doing boosting the readership for satirists. Satire had been in decline for some time.

Good complement to The Onion's article on winning by terror (see posting of a week ago or so).