It's a race

Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: A Weblog

From the Wall Street Journal, today:
WSJ.com: The latest Zogby Interactive poll puts Mr. Kerry ahead of President Bush in 13 of the 16 closely contested states.... If the results on Election Day matched Zobgy's numbers, Mr. Kerry would win.... Mr. Kerry would have 322 electoral votes and the president would have 216.

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Ok, I'm guilty of figuring I was going to strive mightily and fall nobly in a hopeless cause. I didn't bank on actually having a chance of winning. Gee, kind of takes the fun out of hopelessness.

What went on in Iraq prior to the war - the WMD mystery

BBC NEWS | Middle East | A huge failure of intelligence

[The report of the Iraq Survey Group] ... came up with the theory that Saddam Hussein's dark mind was convinced that his power lay in his special weapons and that, even though he had to give them up after the first Gulf War in 1991, he was determined to preserve an ability to manufacture them.

At the same time, he wanted to maintain the myth of invincibility which the weapons had brought him. He always believed that it was the threat of the weapons which stopped the Americans from going to Baghdad in 1991. So he obscured what he had and did not have.

His priority was not to rebuild his weapons. That would have ensured the continuation of sanctions. It was to get rid of sanctions and to subvert them in the meantime.

He was prepared to wait his time until the outside world lost interest and left him alone.

This, and the system of fear and rewards he ran which was unfamiliar to the West, made his regime hard to read. He did not, as South Africa and Ukraine did, throw open his doors willingly and allow easy inspection. Indeed, the inspectors left at the end of 1998, so hard was their task.

Suspicion therefore remained and suspicion led to errors of judgement in which Saddam Hussein was not given the benefit of any doubt, even when the inspectors returned and found nothing.

It proved a disastrous strategy for Saddam Hussein because the uncertainty about his weapons could be exploited by an administration in Washington quite prepared to go to war.

It turns out that the only area in which a reasonably accurate assessment was made was in rocketry. Here, ironically, the threat was probably underplayed. Iraq had plans, according to the Survey Group, for a rocket with a range of 1,000km (620 miles), far in excess of the 150km (90 miles) he was permitted by the United Nations sanctions rules.

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This has been the emerging consensus for some time. The major question is whether Saddam thought he really had more current capabilities than was true. I think that's still an open question, though a relatively minor one.

The plausible charges against the Bush administration are three:

1. Did the Bush administration bias the pre-war intelligence, and avoid killing Zarqawi when they could have, to bolster their personal desires to destroy Saddam?

2. Was the Bush administrations desire to destroy Saddam rational?

3. Was the Bush administration delusional about what would happen after the invasion, or did Rumsfeld take horrible risks in order to preserve capacity for a second strike against Syria or Iran?

The current state of evidence on these charges suggests:

1. Likely guilty on both counts.
2. An open question. It may have been irrational, but a rational case could also have been made. The big argument is about method rather than goal. They are probably guilty of incompetence.
3. Guilty of incompetence.

The only rational judgement given the facts of the case:

Fire Bush.

Vote for Change resurrects Neil Young

MoveOn PAC

My wife and I attended our first mutual rock concert last night -- Bruce Springsteen, REM, John Fogarty ... and ... Neil Young. Young showed up at the Vote for Change concert unannounced. He looked near death during his first performance, but, incredibly, by the final ear crushing brain splintering finale he looked about 20 years younger. I thought the damned speakers would explode (which would have been at least quieter).

A very impressive group and a fun audience. Admittedly a very pale and aging audience. Springsteen is a great speaker (Governor Springsteen?). I still don't know who that REM guy is, but he has one heck of a magnetic personality.

My ears may never be the same again. Ouch.

Cheney says --- trust Factcheck.com on Halliburton

GeorgeSoros.com

This is truly hilarious. Good for George! Cheney misspoke during the debate, and named a .com domain rather than a .org. In the twinkling of an eye someone in Soros organization acquired the educational domain --- and pointed it here.

Update 10/10/04: Turns out the redirect was done by the owner of the factcheck.com domain without input from the Soros organization. Bravo for him! A hero of the resistance ...

The worst intelligence report in US history

The New York Times > International > Middle East > How the White House Used Disputed Arms Intelligence

This long article focuses on one part of what's been called "the worst report in the history of US intelligence" -- the pre-war Iraq intelligence estimate. The CIA and Dick Cheney both come out very badly. Colin Powell also does poorly. Now we know why Tenet quit.

George the Divine - coming soon to a DVD near you

IHT: Frank Rich: Bush's crusade for the White House

Rich comments on a DVD to be released October 5th. It tells the story of George Bush -- agent of God. Emphases mine.

... A towheaded child actor bathed in the golden light of an off-camera halo re-enacts the young George comforting his mom after the death of his sister; it's a parable anticipating the future president's miraculous ability to comfort us all after 9/11. As for the actual president, he is shown with a flag for a backdrop in a split-screen tableau with Jesus. The message isn't subtle: They were separated at birth.

... Anyone who stands in the way of Bush completing his godly battle, of course, is a heretic. Facts on the ground in Iraq don't matter. Rational arguments mustered in presidential debates don't matter. Logic of any kind is a nonstarter.

The president - who after 9/11 called the war on terrorism a "crusade," until protests forced the White House to backpedal - is divine. He may not hear "voices" instructing him on policy, testifies Stephen Mansfield, the author of one of the movie's source texts, "The Faith of George W. Bush," but he does act on "promptings" from God. "I think we went into Iraq not so much because there were weapons of mass destruction," Mansfield has explained elsewhere, "but because Bush had concluded that Saddam Hussein was an evildoer" in the battle "between good and evil." So why didn't we go into those other countries in the axis of evil, North Korea or Iran? Never mind. To ask such questions is to be against God and "with the terrorists."

Bush never admits to making a mistake; even his premature "Mission Accomplished" victory lap wasn't in error, as he recently told the con-servative talk-show host Bill O'Reilly. After all, if you believe "God wants me to be president" - a quote attributed to Bush by the Reverend Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention - it's a given that you are incapable of making mistakes.
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The president didn't revive the word "crusade" idly in the autumn of 2001. His view of faith is as a Manichaean scheme of blacks and whites to be acted out in a perpetual war against evil. The majority of Christian Americans may not agree with this apocalyptic worldview, but there's a big market for it. A Newsweek poll shows that 17 percent of Americans expect the world to end in their lifetime. To Karl Rove and company, that 17 percent is otherwise known as "the base."

... "George W. Bush: Faith in the White House" must be seen because it shows how someone like Boykin can stay in his job even in failure and why Bush feels divinely entitled to keep his job even as we stand on the cusp of an abyss in Iraq. In this pious but not humble worldview, faith, or at least a certain brand of it, counts more than competence, and a biblical mission, or at least a simplistic, blunderbuss facsimile of one, counts more than the secular goal of waging an effective, focused battle against an enemy as elusive and cunning as terrorists. That no one in this documentary, including its hero, acknowledges any constitutional boundaries between church and state is hardly a surprise. To them, America is a "Christian nation," period.

Far more startling is the inability of a president or his acolytes to acknowledge any boundary that might separate Bush's flawed actions battling "against the forces of evil" from the righteous dictates of God. What that level of hubris might bring in a second term is left to the imagination, and "Faith in the White House" gives the imagination room to run riot about what a 21st-century crusade might look like in the flesh

GBrowser, Google, Microsoft and Netscape Constellation

Could a 'GBrowser' Spawn an 'MBrowser'? - Mary Jo Foley (Microsoft Watch)

When Sun first fielded Java, it was 'just' a programming language. Then Sun expanded it into a 'platform' by adding other layers of software to the Java core.

It seems that Google is embarking on a similar path. In addition to providing a search engine, Google is now offering Web mail. It acquired photo-storing/sharing vendor Picassa. And in the not-too-distant future, Google could add a browser to its repertoire, as well....

Microsoft's focus on Google could become even sharper if rumors pan out regarding Google's intent to become a browser purveyor. The company has registered the 'Gbrowser.com,' 'Gbrowser.net' and 'Gbrowser.org' domain names. And if you piece the clues together, as some company watchers are doing, the Google browser won't be any old browser. It will be more of a development and operating environment, allowing users to work offline as well as online. Some might even go so far as to call it a 'platform.'

...My bet? While Opera, Safari and Firefox seemingly weren't enough to convince Microsoft that the company should find a way to swallow its antitrust arguments and release a new version of IE, Google's entrée into the market might be. I wouldn't be surprised to see Microsoft release some kind of stripped-down browser (IE Lite, though they won't call it that) some time in the next year-plus.

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This is very familiar to anyone who remembers Netscape Constellation (1996, almost 10 years ago!). Constellation incited Microsoft to crush Netscape forever. Now the hand of Netscape is thrusting out of the grave. Microsoft will need to redouble their efforts to acquire or destroy Google.

Mary Jo Foley also notes that Microsoft has decided that it will fight hard to keep closed their networking communication protocols. In other words they have declared that the "lock-in" between their desktop and server solutions is critical to their business models.

Between Google and Linux Microsoft's paranoia must be working overtime. Of course a few billion dollars and an armada of lawsuits should suffice to defeat both of these enemies. (The only real concern is China. If China decided that it needed Linux as a matter of national security, that might be hard for Microsoft to overcome.)

Failure in the FBI and Homeland Security -- and another counter-terrorism head quits

The New York Times > Washington > Disarray Thwarts Terrorist List, Inquiry Finds

WASHINGTON, Oct. 1 - Efforts to create a master terrorist "watch list," a priority for the Bush administration, are lagging badly because of a lack of leadership at the Department of Homeland Security and other bureaucratic problems, the department's inspector general said in a report released Friday.

The highly critical report found that the effort, which seeks to combine 10 watch lists now in use by agencies across the federal government, suffers from poor coordination, staffing problems and technical hurdles. The problems reflect a "pattern of ad hoc approaches to counterterrorism" throughout the government, it said.

In a separate report issued on Monday, the Justice Department's inspector general faulted the Federal Bureau of Investigation for continuing problems in its ability to translate terrorism-related material, with a backlog of more than 120,000 hours of audio material. Computer storage problems may have also led the F.B.I. to systematically erase some recordings in investigating Al Qaeda, the department said.

... Mr. Ervin found in his report that the Homeland Security Department "has not fulfilled its leadership responsibility" for consolidating the watch lists, deferring instead to the Justice Department and the F.B.I. to take the lead in operating what is known as the Terrorist Screening Center, which was set up to consolidate the lists.

... Brian Rohrkasse, a spokesman for the Department of Homeland Security, said of the inspector general's criticisms, "We disagree with the premise of the report, which states that D.H.S. has the lead responsibility." He said that while homeland security was a "strong partner" in the project, the F.B.I. had the lead.

But an F.B.I. official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the dissension over the issue, said ultimate responsibility for developing a master watch list "is a D.H.S. function," adding: "We're doing it now because they didn't have a process to set it up, but it's a D.H.S. function. It's supposed to be D.H.S., and they should take a more active role."

... Domestic security officials told the inspector general that they "lacked the internal resources and infrastructure to carry out the effort" at a time when the department faced the "enormous task" of merging 22 agencies into a new Department of Homeland Security.

While the terrorist screening center was supposed to have 160 employees in place by this June, it had only about half that total because of management problems and difficulties finding people with the expertise and clearance levels, the report said. [jf: Given the practices of the Bush administration, the challenge may be finding Bush loyalists with any domain expertise.]

Nor has there been enough attention paid to ensuring that the watch lists do not impede on privacy rights, the report said. It found that some agencies using watch lists had conducted data mining operations without needed oversight, a practice that it said carried the "potential for greater civil liberties violations and law enforcement errors." [jf: They have no quality assurance on the list contents, no way to identify and correct errors, and no true restrictions on use and misuse. Maybe they should just outsource this list to the KGB.]

... Meanwhile, in another potential blow to the department, the head of the administration's efforts to make cyberspace more secure abruptly resigned on Thursday after a year on the job. The official, Amit Yoran, a former computer security entrepreneur, told department officials on Thursday that he was leaving his post as director of the National Cyber Security Division...

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Meanwhile Zawahiri makes the same declaration he made before the Madrid train bombs. No wonder the family members of the 9/11 commission have been campaigning for Kerry.

There are three stories here. None of them are likely to make it to Fox TV or the Wall Street Journal.

1. Homeland security is in disarray. My guess is that our security agencies need more of the "nerds and geeks" that they used to have in World War II, but who have since been expelled as too troublesome, disloyal, and insufficiently politic. The post-911 FBI evaluations also demonstrated a lot of incompetence in middle and upper management; with too many people who excel primarily at political infighting and survival.

Most of all, however, we've had a longstanding failure of leadership in the executive and legislative branches of government. Clinton was unable to tackle these problems because he was constantly under attack and investigation -- not a good position from which to reform the FBI!

Repairing homeland security will take honest, competent, and inspiring leadership from the executive and legislative branches, and the appointment of honest, ethical and empowered leaders in homeland security, the FBI, and the CIA. This in turn requires an informed and intelligent electorate to put that government in place. Hmm. I think I need to move my family to a remote part of British Columbia ...

2. The Watch List is broken. There's actually a good spin here. The Watch List was a really stupid idea; one widely ridiculed by most security experts. So perhaps competent people in both Homeland Security and the FBI decided it would be best to make it go away -- but they couldn't explain that to Bush (who doesn't understand this stuff). So they just ignored it. The best outcome would be for everyone to just forget about it. The worst outcome is that we'll simply use a broken watch list -- a kind of self-inflicted wound.

3. I wonder if Amit Yoran quit because of #1 and #2. Maybe he decided he needed to campaign for Kerry.


BTW. Does anyone else besides me think bin Laden is dead or missing? Zawahiri spoke as though bin Laden was gone.

The CIA and the White House -- an uneasy alliance

The New York Times > Washington > DOUGLAS JEHL > Intelligence: C.I.A.-White House Tensions Are Being Made Public to Rare Degree

I recently heard a US Senator claim that the Senate receives better briefings from Slate and the New York Times than they get from the CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency. I'd always had the naive idea that the Senate was an important part of the US government. I guess I was reading the wrong constitution.

In the meantime the CIA and the White House are barely talking to one another. Our President evidently receives his intelligence from a supernatural source. Given the results to date, I suspect the president's unwordly advisor does not mean us well.

I can only wonder how bad things will be after four more years of Bush. Here's the CIA/White House story:

October 2, 2004

... James L. Pavitt spent 31 years at the Central Intelligence Agency, the last five as head of the clandestine service, before retiring in August. But never, Mr. Pavitt said Friday, does he recall anything like "the viciousness and vindictiveness" now playing out in a battle between the White House and the C.I.A.

... Already, the contents of classified intelligence estimates about Iraq have been leaked by people sympathetic to the C.I.A., to the considerable embarrassment of the White House...

... In a telephone conversation on Friday, Mr. Pavitt made an argument that echoed that others have sounded in recent weeks. "There was nothing in the intelligence that was a casus belli," Mr. Pavitt said. The C.I.A. may have been wrong about Iraq and its weapons, he acknowledged, but it was on the mark in issuing prewar warnings about the obstacles that an American occupying force would face in postwar Iraq.

Mr. Pavitt's career whose spanned the Church Committee revelations, in the mid-1970s, of C.I.A. improprieties, the sharp downsizing of the C.I.A. under President Jimmy Carter, the Iran-Contra scandal, and the repeated intelligence failures of recent years, including those related to the Sept. 11 attacks.

As deputy director of operations, Mr. Pavitt headed human spying operations, and was the day-to-day tactical commander of the clandestine war on terrorism. He worked closely with the White House, and said he has no sympathy with those in the government who may have leaked the contents of classified documents to make a political point. "The agency is not out to undermine this president," Mr. Pavitt said.

,,, But Mr. Pavitt was not alone among former intelligence officials in describing what is now unfolding as extraordinary. In interviews, several other former high-ranking officials, including those from the C.I.A. and other intelligence agencies, said that while C.I.A. and White House were continuing to work closely and professionally together, they had rarely seen tensions so high among their allies and other partisans on both sides.

... Whatever the motivation, the steps taken by people sympathetic to the C.I.A. allies to call attention to intelligence successes on Iraq have been notable. They included the disclosure in mid-September by government officials to The New York Times of details of a classified National Intelligence Estimate prepared for President Bush in July 2004 and distributed in late August. Its gloomy assessment of the challenges facing Iraq said that an environment of tenuous stability was the best-case outcome the country could expect through the end of 2005.

Other disclosures by government officials early this week have included specific new details contained in two other classified documents, prewar assessments on Iraq that were issued by the National Intelligence Council in January 2003... The intelligence warnings appeared to have been much sharper than was acknowledged in the more upbeat forecasts provided before the war by Mr. Bush and top deputies including Paul D. Wolfowitz, the deputy defense secretary.

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Is an agents primary responsibility to the government or to the nation? What if they know the president is incompetent and leading the nation into disaster? I don't know the answer. I'm sure I don't trust the Wall Street Journal however.

The state of Iraq -- from a WSJ reporter's personal email

Pulling Back the Curtain: What a Top Reporter in Baghdad Really Thinks About the War

This widely circulated email appears (APPEARS) to be authentic.

9/30/2004. Farnaz Fassihi, a Wall Street Journal correspondent in Iraq, confirmed that a widely-redistributed letter she emailed to friends about the nightmarish situation in Iraq was indeed written by her. Too bad the WSJ doesn't allow this reporter to write these kinds of stories for the paper.

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Being a foreign correspondent in Baghdad these days is like being under virtual house arrest. Forget about the reasons that lured me to this job: a chance to see the world, explore the exotic, meet new people in far away lands, discover their ways and tell stories that could make a difference.

Little by little, day-by-day, being based in Iraq has defied all those reasons. I am house bound. I leave when I have a very good reason to and a scheduled interview. I avoid going to people's homes and never walk in the streets. I can't go grocery shopping any more, can't eat in restaurants, can't strike a conversation with strangers, can't look for stories, can't drive in any thing but a full armored car, can't go to scenes of breaking news stories, can't be stuck in traffic, can't speak English outside, can't take a road trip, can't say I'm an American, can't linger at checkpoints, can't be curious about what people are saying, doing, feeling. And can't and can't.

There has been one too many close calls, including a car bomb so near our house that it blew out all the windows. So now my most pressing concern every day is not to write a kick-ass story but to stay alive and make sure our Iraqi employees stay alive. In Baghdad I am a security personnel first, a reporter second.

It's hard to pinpoint when the turning point exactly began. Was it April when the Fallujah fell out of the grasp of the Americans? Was it when Moqtada and Jish Mahdi declared war on the U.S. military? Was it when Sadr City, home to ten percent of Iraq's population, became a nightly battlefield for the Americans? Or was it when the insurgency began spreading from isolated pockets in the Sunni triangle to include most of Iraq? Despite President Bush's rosy assessments, Iraq remains a disaster. If under Saddam it was a potential threat, under the Americans it has been transformed to imminent and active threat, a foreign policy failure bound to haunt the United States for decades to come.

Iraqis like to call this mess the situation. When asked how are things? they reply: the situation is very bad.

What they mean by situation is this: the Iraqi government doesn't control most Iraqi cities, there are several car bombs going off each day around the country killing and injuring scores of innocent people, the country's roads are becoming impassable and littered by hundreds of landmines and explosive devices aimed to kill American soldiers, there are assassinations, kidnappings and beheadings. The situation, basically, means a raging barbaric guerilla war.

In four days, 110 people died and over 300 got injured in Baghdad alone. The numbers are so shocking that the ministry of health, which was attempting an exercise of public transparency by releasing the numbers-- has now stopped disclosing them.

Insurgents now attack Americans 87 times a day.

A friend drove thru the Shiite slum of Sadr City yesterday. He said young men were openly placing improvised explosive devices into the ground. They melt a shallow hole into the asphalt, dig the explosive, cover it with dirt and put an old tire or plastic can over it to signal to the locals this is booby-trapped. He said on the main roads of Sadr City, there were a dozen landmines per every ten yards. His car snaked and swirled to avoid driving over them. Behind the walls sits an angry Iraqi ready to detonate them as soon as an American convoy gets near. This is in Shiite land, the population that was supposed to love America for liberating Iraq.

For journalists the significant turning point came with the wave of abduction and kidnappings. Only two weeks ago we felt safe around Baghdad because foreigners were being abducted on the roads and highways between towns. Then came a frantic phone call from a journalist female friend at 11 p.m. telling me two Italian women had been abducted from their homes in broad daylight. Then the two Americans, who got beheaded this week and the Brit, were abducted from their homes in a residential neighborhood. They were supplying the entire block with round the clock electricity from their generator to win friends. The abductors grabbed one of them at 6 a.m. when he came out to switch on the generator; his beheaded body was thrown back near the neighborhoods. The insurgency, we are told, is rampant with no signs of calming down. If any thing, it is growing stronger, organized and more sophisticated every day. The various elements within it -- baathists, criminals, nationalists and Al Qaeda -- are cooperating and coordinating.

I went to an emergency meeting for foreign correspondents with the military and embassy to discuss the kidnappings. We were somberly told our fate would largely depend on where we were in the kidnapping chain once it was determined we were missing. Here is how it goes: criminal gangs grab you and sell you up to Baathists in Fallujah, who will in turn sell you to Al Qaeda. In turn, cash and weapons flow the other way from Al Qaeda to the Baathisst to the criminals. My friend Georges, the French journalist snatched on the road to Najaf, has been missing for a month with no word on release or whether he is still alive.

America's last hope for a quick exit? The Iraqi police and National Guard units we are spending billions of dollars to train. The cops are being murdered by the dozens every day -- over 700 to date -- and the insurgents are infiltrating their ranks. The problem is so serious that the U.S. military has allocated $6 million dollars to buy out 30,000 cops they just trained to get rid of them quietly.

As for reconstruction: firstly it's so unsafe for foreigners to operate that almost all projects have come to a halt. After two years, of the $18 billion Congress appropriated for Iraq reconstruction only about $1 billion or so has been spent and a chunk [jf: was chuck] has now been reallocated for improving security, a sign of just how bad things are going here.

Oil dreams? Insurgents disrupt oil flow routinely as a result of sabotage and oil prices have hit record high of $49 a barrel.

Who did this war exactly benefit? Was it worth it? Are we safer because Saddam is holed up and Al Qaeda is running around in Iraq?

Iraqis say that thanks to America they got freedom in exchange for insecurity. Guess what? They say they'd take security over freedom any day, even if it means having a dictator ruler.

I heard an educated Iraqi say today that if Saddam Hussein were allowed to run for elections he would get the majority of the vote. This is truly sad.

Then I went to see an Iraqi scholar this week to talk to him about elections here. He has been trying to educate the public on the importance of voting. He said, "President Bush wanted to turn Iraq into a democracy that would be an example for the Middle East. Forget about democracy, forget about being a model for the region, we have to salvage Iraq before all is lost."

One could argue that Iraq is already lost beyond salvation. For those of us on the ground it's hard to imagine what if any thing could salvage it from its violent downward spiral.

The genie of terrorism, chaos and mayhem has been unleashed onto this country as a result of American mistakes and it can't be put back into a bottle.

The Iraqi government is talking about having elections in three months while half of the country remains a no go zone -- out of the hands of the government and the Americans and out of reach of journalists. In the other half, the disenchanted population is too terrified to show up at polling stations. The Sunnis have already said they'd boycott elections, leaving the stage open for polarized government of Kurds and Shiites that will not be deemed as legitimate and will most certainly lead to civil war.

I asked a 28-year-old engineer if he and his family would participate in the Iraqi elections since it was the first time Iraqis could to some degree elect a leadership. His response summed it all: "Go and vote and risk being blown into pieces or followed by the insurgents and murdered for cooperating with the Americans? For what? To practice democracy? Are you joking?

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George Bush has promoted and supported incompetents. He is incompetent.

More interesting is the degree to which the Wall Street Journal is evidently altering the reports they get from their own reporters. They know who their masters are.

Iraq is lost

MSNBC - ‘Staying the Course’ Isn’t an Option

Retired Air Force Col.  Mike Turner is a former military planner who served on the U.S. Central Command planning staff for operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm. Before retiring in 1997, he spent four years as a strategic policy planner for the Joint Chiefs of Staff specializing in Middle East/Africa affairs. He is a 1973 graduate of the U.S. Air Force Academy and a former fighter pilot and air-rescue helicopter pilot.

... From a purely military standpoint, the war in Iraq is an unmitigated disaster. This administration failed to make even a cursory effort at adequately defining the political end state they sought to achieve by removing Saddam Hussein, making it impossible to precisely define long-term military success. That, in turn, makes it impossible to lay out a rational exit strategy for U.S. troops. Like Vietnam, the military is again being asked to clean up the detritus of a failed foreign policy. We are nose-deep in a protracted insurgency, an occupying Christian power in an oil-rich, Arab country. That country is not now and has never been a single nation. A single, unified, democratic Iraq comprised of Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis is a willfully ignorant illusion at best.

Two thirds of America's combat brigades are now tied down in this war which, under present conditions, is categorically unwinnable. Having alienated virtually every major ally who might help, our troops are simply targets. If Bush is re-elected, there are only two possible outcomes in Iraq:

- Four years from now, America will have 5,000 dead servicemen and women and an untold number of dead Iraqis at a cost of about $1 trillion, yet still be no closer to success than we are right now, or

- The U.S. will be gone, and we will witness the birth of a violent breeding ground for Shiite terrorists posing a far greater threat to Americans than a contained Saddam.

To discern the truth about Iraq, Americans must simply look beyond the spin. This war is not some noble endeavor, some great struggle of good against evil as the Bush administration would have us believe. We in the military have heard these grand pronouncements many times before by men who have neither served nor sacrificed. This war is an exercise in colossal stupidity and hubris which has now cost more than 1,000 American military lives, which has empowered Al Qaeda beyond anything those butchers might have engineered on their own and which has diverted America's attention and precious resources from the real threat at the worst possible time. And now, in a supreme act of truly breathtaking gall, this administration insists the only way to fix Iraq is to leave in power the very ones who created the nightmare.

... So what strategies should candidate Kerry propose? The first steps are patently obvious to anyone who has worked even briefly as a military policy planner. First, Americans must understand it is highly probable that Iraq is already lost. Americans must stop believing the never-ending litany of "happy thoughts" spewing forth from the Bush campaign and start thinking about our men and women dying wholesale in Iraq. Having acknowledged that painful reality and the genuine, long-term danger posed to Americans by remaining in Iraq, here are some obvious actions for Kerry to propose at his first debate next week with Bush. 

1. Define the political end state. A "free and democratic Iraq" is not a realistic political goal. A loose coalition of Kurdistan (Kurds), a Central Arab Republic (Sunni) and a Southern Arab Republic (Shia) might be. Whatever the goal, the political objective must precede the military objective, and it must be forged by the experts at the State Department, not the Pentagon. 

2. Given a precisely defined political objective, the president must obtain an accurate and honest field assessment from our senior military commanders, who must be free to make that assessment without recrimination. These commanders must decide if a military mission supporting the precisely defined political objective is possible and realistic. If it is, we need to enter Iraq with overwhelming military force to achieve success. If our military leaders determine it is not—and I believe that is very likely— we must pull our troops out now. Under Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, a renowned autocrat and micromanager, this type of honest assessment by the military is impossible.

3. We must obtain United Nations mandate for a long-term solution to Iraq. The U.N. may be largely impotent, inefficient and ineffectual, but it has become the basis for legitimizing military operations around the world. Since the case for defending ourselves against a supposedly imminent threat is now dead—if it ever was alive—we must obtain international, political top cover for all future operations.

4. We must obtain the support of our allies for a newly crafted, long-term political solution for the region. This will enable us to share the burden of rebuilding Iraq, though it may require some big sticks and even bigger carrots.

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History will not judge the American people very kindly. I write this blog in part so one day I can point my children to it and say "I did what I could."

Is Rove a Satan worshiper?

Talking Points Memo: by Joshua Micah Marshall: September 26, 2004 - October 02, 2004 Archives

An article out this week in The Atlantic Monthly focuses specifically on a series of races Rove ran in Texas and Alabama in the 1990s...

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Rove makes the demons of American politics look like juvenile innocents.

The Seattle Times: Editorials & Opinion: Kerry for President

The Seattle Times: Editorials & Opinion: Kerry for President

Four years ago, this page endorsed George W. Bush for president. We cannot do so again — because of an ill-conceived war and its aftermath, undisciplined spending, a shrinkage of constitutional rights and an intrusive social agenda.

The Bush presidency is not what we had in mind. Our endorsement of John Kerry is not without reservations, but he is head and shoulders above the incumbent.

The first issue is the war. When the Bush administration began beating the drums for war on Iraq, this page said repeatedly that he had not justified it. When war came, this page closed ranks, wanting to support our troops and give the president the benefit of the doubt. The troops deserved it. In hindsight, their commander in chief did not.

The first priority of a new president must be to end the military occupation of Iraq. This will be no easy task, but Kerry is more likely to do it — and with some understanding of Middle Eastern realities — than is Bush.

The election of Kerry would sweep away neoconservative war intellectuals who drive policy at the White House and Pentagon. It would end the back-door draft of American reservists and the use of American soldiers as imperial police. It would also provide a chance to repair America's overseas relationships, both with governments and people, particularly in the world of Islam.

A less-belligerent, more-intelligent foreign policy should cause less anger to be directed at the United States. A political change should allow Americans to examine the powers they have given the federal government under the Patriot Act, and the powers the president has claimed by executive order.

This page had high hopes for President Bush regarding taxing and spending. We endorsed his cut in income taxes, expecting that it would help business and discipline new public spending. In the end, there was no discipline in it. In control of the Senate, the House and the presidency for the first time in half a century, the Republicans have had a celebration of spending.

Kerry has made many promises, and might spend as much as Bush if given a Congress under the control of Democrats. He is more likely to get a divided government, which may be a good thing.

Bush was also supposed to be the candidate who understood business. In some ways he has, but he has been too often the candidate of big business only. He has sided with pharmaceutical companies against drug imports from Canada.

In our own industry, the Bush appointees on the Federal Communications Commission have pushed to relax restrictions on how many TV stations, radio stations and newspapers one company may own. In an industry that is the steward of the public's right to speak, this is a threat to democracy itself — and Kerry has stood up against it.

Bush talked like the candidate of free trade, a policy the Pacific Northwest relies upon. He turned protectionist on steel and Canadian lumber. Admittedly, Kerry's campaign rhetoric is even worse on trade. But for the previous 20 years, Kerry had a strong record in support of trade, and we have learned that the best guide to what politicians do is what they have done in the past, not what they say.

On some matters, we always had to hold our noses to endorse Bush. We noted four years ago that he was too willing to toss aside wild nature, and to drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. We still disagree. On clean air, forests and fish, we generally side with Kerry.

We also agree with Sen. Kerry that Social Security should not offer private accounts.

Four years ago, we stated our profound disagreement with Bush on abortion, and then in one of his first acts as president, he moved to reinstate a ban on federal money for organizations that provide information about abortions overseas. We disagree also with Bush's ban on federal money for research using any new lines of stem cells.

There is in these positions a presidential blending of politics and religion that is wrong for the government of a diverse republic.

Our largest doubt about Kerry is his idea that the federal debt may be stabilized, and dozens of new programs added, merely by raising taxes on the top 2 percent of Americans. Class warfare is a false promise, and we hope he forgets it.

Certainly, the man now in office forgot some of the things he said so fetchingly four years ago.

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Not a bad summary really. They were fools to endorse Bush in the first place -- he said what he intended to do and he did it. I have no idea what they were listening to 4 years ago.

Sugar in space provides clue to origin of life

Spaceflight Now | Breaking News | Sugar in space provides clue to origin of life

Although the chemistry on Earth and in interstellar clouds is much different, the results can be very similar. This and other recent studies show that prebiotic chemistry -- the formation of the molecular building blocks necessary for the creation of life -- occurs in interstellar clouds long before that cloud collapses to form a new solar system with planets. 'Many of the interstellar molecules discovered to date are the same kinds detected in laboratory experiments specifically designed to synthesize prebiotic molecules. This fact suggests a universal prebiotic chemistry,' said Jan M. Hollis of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MD. This suggests that the molecular building blocks for the creation of life on a new planet might get a head start in the dust of interstellar clouds.

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The galaxy is a petri dish for life carrying planets. Very strange.

Asking the big questions: Are we alone? What happens to civilizations like our's?

The New York Times Magazine - CHARLES SIEBERT - The Genesis Project

To put it mildly, this is an interest of mine. The most recent discoveries in extrasolar planetary science favor an abundance of earthlike planets (Bayesian reasoning -- they've chopped off the rare-planet end of the probability curve). This biases the hoary Drake Equation towards the likelihood of life, even technological life.

The Genesis Project (love the name the NYT title hack gave it) is about filling out other terms in the Drake Equation. It points in some weird directions. Francis Crick gained a reputation as a fallen genius because of his support for the hypothesis that life on earth arose by deliberate "seeding" of a newly formed planet. The idea was not knew to Crick, cometary seeding of life has been popular in science fiction for generations.

Yet Fermi's Paradox remains -- we don't find godlike aliens underfoot. Which leads to the most interesting question of all -- what happens to technocentric civilizations?

September 26, 2004

...The Stardust mission, however, is typical of a number of projects to divine life's origins, all part of a $75-million-a-year scientific enterprise now being financed by NASA. It is known as astrobiology.

The appellation invokes images of ferns in outer space, or interstellar swamps, but these are mundane imaginings compared with the various avenues of exploration being pursued by astrobiologists. There are projects like drilling into the earth's boiling-hot deep-sea vents or icy dark Antarctic waters in order to do DNA analysis of primitive life forms. Or trying to replicate in the laboratory the moment when the chemical earth first transformed into a biological one. Or lassoing a multibillion-year-old comet in search of organic compounds like amino acids and carbon, the so-called building blocks of life.

... There was a time -- right up until the early 1950's, in fact -- when the sorts of questions now being addressed by astrobiology were the stuff of either myth and science fiction, or of only the most marginal, far-fetched or pie-in-the-sky kinds of science. Now, however, we face a strangely reverse reality: the state of our knowledge has evolved to the point where our previous conjecturing about life's origin has been exposed as woefully myopic and parochial, not nearly far-fetched or skyward-looking enough.

... It is a quest that is being pursued from three directions: comparative analysis of DNA on earth; biochemical synthesis of life in the lab, or ''test-tube evolution''; and, finally, examination of the various organic compounds that exist in the depths of outer space -- perhaps the ideal laboratory, because of both its deep history and inherent lack of contamination.

Of astrobiology's three approaches, the first, DNA analysis, is perhaps the most traditional mode of inquiry, or at least the most grounded. Precisely because all life forms are made of the same stuff, are all so-called ''DNA-protein-based organisms,'' scientists can now use comparative DNA analysis to trace the common roots of life's collective family tree further back than ever imagined.

... There is, for example, a consensus now about the existence and the essential character of life's common ancestor, the great, great, great (to the power of a gazillion) grandparent of you and me and everything else that we see (or can't see) living around us. It even has a name: LUCA, or Last Universal Common Ancestor, although some prefer the name Cenancestor, from the Greek root ''cen'' (meaning ''together'') and others favor LCA, or Last Common Ancestor.

There is very little known about LUCA, though scientists currently agree on two things. One, that it had to have existed. And two, that it had to have been extremely rugged. As recently as the mid-70's there were thought to be only two domains of life on earth: the prokaryotes -- small, single-celled bacteria lacking a nucleus or other complex cellular structures; and the eukaryotes -- organisms made of one or more cells with a nucleus, a category embracing everything from complex multicellular entities, like mammals, reptiles, birds and plants, to the single-celled amoeba.

In 1977, however, a molecular biologist from the University of Illinois named Carl Woese identified within the prokaryotes a genetically distinct class of bacteria now known as the archaea, many of them primitive, single-celled organisms known as ''extremophiles'' because they live in extreme environments like volcanic vents or Antarctic waters. When the DNA of archaea was compared with that of prokaryotes and eukaryotes, it became clear that the trifurcation of life from LUCA occurred far earlier than previously believed, well over three billion years ago, when there was little or no oxygen in the earth's atmosphere.

[jf: In other words the extremophile discoveries were (perhaps literally?) earthshattering. They radically changed our thoughts about when life first arose on earch, and drastically narrowed the interval between formation of the planet and the evolution of life.]

LUCA, in other words, had to have been a hard-bitten little extremophile of some kind or other. And while the debate rages as to precisely what sort of entity this common ancestor was, and which of the three current domains it was more kindred to, scientists have now discovered a variety of examples of what it might have been, now thriving all over the earth -- decidedly uncuddly, extremophilic creatures sometimes called superbugs. There are, for instance, the acidophiles -- bacteria that have been found to thrive on the gas given off by raw sewage and that both excrete and multiply in concentrations of acid strong enough to dissolve metal and destroy entire city sewer systems. At the opposite end of the spectrum, there are superbugs that live in temperatures below -320 degrees Fahrenheit, lower than that of liquid nitrogen.

[jf: Recent NASA research has isolated bugs that live off the energy from aluminum ions and can survive high levels of gamma radiation and probably vacuum. It's likely we've already seeded Mars with some these bugs. Some of these terrestrial (whatever that means) bugs could not be detected by any technology we're likely to put on a space probe.]

... As far along the path toward origins as the analysis of DNA on earth has already led us, many astrobiologists say it isn't nearly far enough. Indeed, an entity like LUCA, for all its mysteries, is generally considered to be something eminently knowable, a relative latecomer in life's story, which must have had a fairly sophisticated genome to have survived the extreme conditions of the early earth. If LUCA is the common ancestor of life as we currently recognize it, the big question is: What came before that?

Many scientists now argue that before LUCA and the emergence of our current DNA-protein world, there was what's referred to as an RNA world, one made up only of rudimentary RNA-based entities that were later subsumed into RNA's current role as our DNA's messenger. And before the RNA-world, there has to have been what might be described as the real prize for astrobiologists, the so-called first living organism, or FLO.

In order to find FLO, astrobiologists must first arrive at a working definition of ''living.'' ''It all depends on what we mean by biology,'' says Jeffrey Bada, a geochemist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at U.C. San Diego. ''For me, I would say that all you need to define life is imperfect replication. That's it. Life. And what that means is that the entity can make copies of itself but not exact copies. A perfectly replicating system isn't alive because it doesn't evolve [jf. So really Bada is defining life as a "contained system capable of evolution" -- by that definition the world economy is "alive". I've made the same point -- canopy economics.] Quartz crystals make exact copies of themselves and have done from the beginning of the earth. They don't evolve, however, because they're locked into that particular form. But with imperfect replication you get mutants that develop some sort of selective advantage that will allow them to dominate the system.

... What is known about FLO is that for it to have happened at all, it had to have been an even tougher entity than LUCA was merely to overcome the universe's most prohibitive law, the second law of thermodynamics, which dictates that all matter tends toward entropy, the dissipation of energy. All life is in utter defiance of that law, a bound, energy-gathering stay, however brief, against entropy. [jf: This has bothered physicists for a long time. Crick was a physicist by training -- it bothered him. I dimly recall it bothered Neils Bohr, Schrodinger, and their kin.]

... The other essential requirement for the kind of imperfect replication system that Bada describes is that there had to have been a first bit of information, some kind of biochemical message, or code, however crude, to begin to convey. Or, in this case, to misconvey, the whole story of life's emergence and evolution on earth being, in essence, a multibillion-year-long game of telephone, in which the initial utterance, the one that preceded all others, was increasingly transmuted and reinvented the further along it was passed. It is the precise nature of that first utterance that astrobiologists are trying to decipher.

'There are some people,'' Bada says, ''who would argue quite vigorously with me about whether the simple kind of replicators I speak of qualify as life. Others would argue that even the sorts of simpler catalytic, self-sustaining reactions that occur on mineral surfaces are living, or are the first type of living system, without even the requirement for genetic information. But to me that's still chemistry, not life. Or it's life as we don't know it.''

A number of chemists are now trying to recreate in their labs at least a rough approximation of this elusive and somewhat ill-defined transition from the purely chemical to the biological, searching for the mix of ingredients which in their interaction create ever more complex molecules in a recurring series of feedback loops that eventually culminate in a self-replicating system that soon dominates its environment. Gerald Joyce, a colleague of Bada's at U.C. San Diego, and one of the pioneers of test-tube evolution, has managed to achieve such a synthesis in his lab using a random mixture of RNA molecules. Jack Szostak of the Harvard Medical School, meanwhile, has been doing groundbreaking work in his lab with organic compounds known as amphiphiles -- compounds that have been shown to produce in water cell-like structures known as vesicles, the ideal sort of contained microenvironment that the earliest living entity on earth might have needed to get started.

''I'm going to stick my neck out here,'' Bada says, ''but I'd be surprised, very surprised, if in the next 5 or 10 years somebody somewhere doesn't make a molecular system that can self-replicate with very little interaction on our part. You just give it the proper chemicals and it starts churning away and replicates and growing and soon dominates the system.'' [jf. Sounds like a "New Kind of Science"?]

... The early earth is now thought to have had a number of different atmospheres over the long course of its coalescence, the most likely was a rather bland mix of nitrogen and carbon dioxide, one not highly conducive to the production of amino acids. Meanwhile, amino acids have been discovered just about everywhere, including inside meteorites and, evidence suggests, drifting about in the so-called interstellar medium. [jf. I thought the BBC recently reported clouds of simple carbohydrates in extrasolar space, but I can't find the article now. Update: it was a cloud of simple sugar molecules in our galaxy.]

... long with carbon and a number of other organic compounds essential to life, amino acids seem to have come along with the universe's original package, woven into the very fabric of our solar system and perhaps long before that, hailing from somewhere out there in that vast 10-billion-year lacuna between the Big Bang and the earth's debut. In the words of Jill Tarter, an astrobiologist at the SETI Institute: ''Every atom of iron in our blood was produced in a star that blew up about 10 billion years ago.'' What those searching the heavens for the answer to life's origins are trying to decipher is how these seemingly prepackaged ingredients for life actually became life, and whether our planet could possibly have been the only viable egg in the universe's sack.

... Even the decidedly low-key Sandford starts twisting in his seat like an excited kid on Christmas morning when he thinks about the return of the Stardust capsule in January 2006, and the possible secrets buried therein. Once the material is recovered, certain tests conducted on whatever organic compounds are found will both certify their extraterrestrial origin and perhaps ultimately help to determine their approximate age in relation to the formation of our solar system and of the earth.

''We want to try to get a real sense of what kinds of building blocks are out there that arrive on planets on Day 1 of their formation,'' says Sandford. ''Of course, since we don't know how exactly life got started, it's hard to assess how critical each compound is. Even if life is an inevitable byproduct of stuff falling out of the sky, certain key aspects of life's formation may also be dominated by indigenous activity on a given planet. Life may have had to beg and borrow and steal everything it could get to happen, and so why be picky? For a long time the argument about origins has been an either-or type of thing: life either happened with a bolt of lightning to the early atmosphere or it was the opposite extreme of actual bugs falling out of the sky and seeding the earth. The truth probably falls somewhere in the middle of that.''

... a number of other astrobiological starcombers have their sights and hopes set on a mission the results of which neither they nor many of us alive today will be around to witness: landing upon and drilling into Jupiter's moon Europa.

About the size of the earth's moon, Europa is covered by ice roughly 6 miles deep, beneath which is 30 to 60 miles of water, roughly the same volume as that of the earth's oceans. While water is often thought to be synonymous with life, Europa is totally dark, ruling out any form of photosynthesis, and thus life as we understand it. There is also thought to be little or no communication between the underlying ocean and Europa's surface. All of which makes the prospect of discovering any signs of life there almost unbearably enticing to astrobiologists.

''I'd love nothing more than for us to find a thriving RNA world there,'' says Bada. ''We can try to reconstruct that in a lab, but if we had a natural example of it, that would be fantastic. We'd have a picture of what life may have been like on earth before it evolved into the modern protein-DNA world of today. Of course, it's hard to imagine the kind of environment that's on Europa producing organisms that look anything like the biochemistry we have here, either modern or LUCA-type organisms. And that's what I find fascinating. Here we could have a completely independent form of life, even though the chemistry leading up to it might be universal. Now, I don't expect little green men to crawl out of the ocean there, but I wouldn't be a bit surprised if we didn't see some extremely interesting chemistry involved in some of the very stages that led to replicating entities here on earth.''

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Phew. A relief from thinking about our negligent and incompetent government!

A parting thought. If it turns out that the fundamental physics of the universe predispose to a cloud of life forming soup infesting all of space, what does that say about the "design" of the universe? And Fermi's Paradox?