Tuesday, December 21, 2004

Coin toss bias

Toss Out the Toss-Up: Bias in heads-or-tails: Science News Online, Feb. 28, 2004
Their preliminary data suggest that a coin will land the same way it started about 51 percent of the time.

This was the most viewed article in Science News in 2004. I can see why. One of the best examples of why one should never have complete confidence in conventional wisdom.

Bias arises because of the mechanics of how people (can) toss coins.

Monday, December 20, 2004

Brave new minds

Sharper minds

The LA Times has a review of the wetware enhancers -- cog drugs for the able minded. I didn't realize Provigil had gained a reputation for enhancing cognition; caffeine, of course, has been known to do that for some time.

The review omits nicotine, a curious drug which is both calming and alerting (and hence beloved in wartime).

I suspect some of these will have quite hideous side-effects. I'm sure I'll end up on one or more though -- especially if the alternative is bagging groceries.

Russ Feingold is running for 2008 (?)

Salon.com | Goin' south
... The people of Alabama appear to be among the most generous and most unsung philanthropists in this country. What they give is unimaginable to many others and they give it time and again: They regularly give their turn at the American dream to someone else. And they give it simply because they're asked. So many people in Greenville [jf: Alabama] don't seem to have basic healthcare coverage or promising job opportunities. Meanwhile, their children volunteer to risk their lives in Iraq and Afghanistan. I can only be humbled by their sacrifice.

But because I am a lawmaker and a student of history, I also know who has been asking them to give so much. And I can only wonder how many more generations of central Alabamians will say yes when the increasingly powerful Republican Party asks them to be concerned about homosexuality but not about the security of their own health, about abortion but not about the economic futures of their own children. As my wife and I drove through Greenville that night, I thought how fundamentally unfair this all is in order to support an increasingly radical conservative movement.

Now, some may think that Alabama and Wisconsin are the polar opposites of American politics. But in both states I've found that -- along with sharing a sincere appreciation of a good turkey dinner -- too many hardworking people are losing their battles for decent paying jobs and adequate healthcare. I'm tired of seeing the power-hungry persuade the hardworking people of this country that the only way to preserve important values is to vote against their own families' basic interests. I believe that the working people of both states have sacrificed for other people's agendas for too long. And I believe that any political party or political movement or political candidate who would consistently say this would be heard throughout America.

We need to go to the Greenvilles of every state, red and blue, and say, "Thank you. You've sacrificed long enough. Now it's your turn at the American dream."

Sure reads like a stump speech to me. If Russ doesn't use it, someone else should.

The vile prejudice against conservatives in academia

Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: A Weblog: Jon Chait on the Political Composition of Academia

This would be funny, except that its tiresome. Conservatives are in a tizzy because academics don't like Bush. They suspect a conspiracy of tenure committees. Chait and DeLong have far more plausible explanations.

Don Lancaster: The Case Against Patents

Guru's Lair: Patent Avoidance Library

In the old era, before the world changed as it had not changed in a hundred years, I subscribed to an iteration of "Whole Earth Review". It was fascinating back then; Wired at its peak was a pale imitation. WER was at the very edge of an emerging revolution, it was a fine companion to another lost gem -- BYTE.

Eventually WER came down to earth and disappeared again, but I still have those issues. The kids have scattered them around the house, so I see them on occasion. I picked one up and a fine article by Don Lancaster, published in 1992 (even then a reprint), caught my eye. It was "The Case Against Patents". Every word rings true today, though his was the perspective on an engineer who found patents didn't help protect his innovations.

The article doesn't anticipate how bad things would become -- nowadays patents are used by megacorps (Microsoft's suite is enough to destroy Linux ten times over -- when they choose to pull the trigger) to destroy competition and prevent innovation. So not only do patents not protect the innovator (as in 1992) they now have the abilit to destroy the innovator (a new discovery).

Lancaster ends with the note that innovators don't innovate to make money, they innovate because they have to. In other words, they're build that way. Good thing to, because Lancaster would say there's no money in it.

I wondered what had happened to that old article. Were it published today it would be the talk of slashdot -- but it's 13+ years old now. Ancient history. Lost lore. Except Lancaster put it on the web. At his site. Which I'd never heard of. Google knew it though.

So this posting is courtesy of the combination of Google, Lancaster's (and my) urge to share, and my kids urge to chaos.

Sunday, December 19, 2004

The Economist helps with the problem of raising children of the wealthy

Economist.com | The servant problem

Upper middle class americans have trouble finding child care at a price they want to pay. Fundamentally the problem is that legal outsourced high quality individual child care costs a substantial fraction of the after-tax income of an upper middle-class working parent.

The Economist suggests the one logical solution.
In the age of the global economy, the solution to the servant problem is simple: rather than importing the nanny, offshore the children.
Of course if one doesn't like that answer, one can do the work oneself. It's not easy work though ...

Aside from the social commentary, there's yet another aspect to this satire. Birth rates are far higher offshore than they are in wealthy nations. So, in a peculiar sense, wealthy nations have offshored more than raising children ...

The British Medical Journal publishes a unique case report

A precious case from Middle Earth -- Bashir et al. 329 (7480): 1435 -- BMJ
Sméagol (Gollum) is a single, 587 year old, hobbit-like male of no fixed abode. He has presented with antisocial behaviour, increasing aggression, and preoccupation with the 'one ring.'...

The BMJ has always had a bit of a sense of humor. This case report was written up by a group of medical students and a psych professor, perhaps as an end-of-rotation assignment. The patient's history is obtained from a chap named Gandalf.

Disappearing in the sand

The New York Times > Science > Beware! Sand in This Physics Lab May Eat You Alive:

This physics experiment showed an peculiar configuration of sand could cause it to pass any weighted object with minimal resistance. I assume this was only a neat physics experiment, until this comment:
Dr. Lohse said the findings could explain reports of travelers' being swallowed up in the desert.

Do the bodies every reappear?

Editing -- the secret to a happy life ...

The Onion | Local Woman's Life Looks Bearable In Scrapbook
Jane Hemmer's family scrapbook, prominently displayed on her coffee table at all times, gives the impression that her life is not only bearable, but even pleasant, sources not particularly close to the 58-year-old homemaker said Monday...

The Onion's satire contrasts a cheer filled scrapbook to a darker reality.

But is the Onion again ahead of the curve? Is a life perhaps not so much well lived ... as well edited? Few live blessed lives, but in most lives there are happy intervals. With a bit of editing, a bit of contrast here and dimming there, cannot the Play be made lighter? There may be something to be said for the art of mastering the past.

I need the opinion of the elders on this ...

Satire is impossible in the Rovian Regime: The Onion can't get ahead of the Swift Boat curve.

WaPo: Anti-Kerry Group Is Not Done Yet
The satirical newspaper "The Onion" did a spoof reporting that Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, which harassed Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry during the campaign about his Vietnam War record, was continuing its campaign against the defeated Kerry because "John Kerry is a threat to every American he comes in contact with, whether he's running for president, getting his oil changed, or going to a movie with his wife." The Onion proposed two new ads for the group, one accusing Kerry of going bowling in street shoes and the other accusing him of cheating to get his 10th cup free at a coffee shop.

Then something really funny happened: Life imitated satire. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported on Thursday: "The end of the 2004 presidential election campaign doesn't spell the end of Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, the well-funded alliance of former servicemen that remains dedicated to preventing Sen. John Kerry from becoming president. The group . . . plans to convene next month to celebrate its successes and to consider speaking out further about Kerry's military service, his anti-war activities afterward, and other issues."

Meanwhile, the American Conservative Union has announced that it has chosen Sen. Zell Miller, the retiring Georgia Democrat who campaigned for Bush and angrily suggested that Kerry wished to arm American troops with "spitballs," to give a "Courage Under Fire" award to the Swift boat group at its Feb. 18 banquet. And we thought Valentine's Day was Feb. 14.

Who will replace Donald Rumsfeld?

After Outcry, Rumsfeld Says He Will Sign Condolence Letters (washingtonpost.com)
The Pentagon has acknowledged that Donald H. Rumsfeld did not sign condolence letters to the families of soldiers killed in Iraq, but it said that from now on the embattled defense secretary would stop the use of signing machines and would pick up the pen himself.

Emphasis mine. This is the kind of news story that emerges towards the very end, when the tip of the long knife is visible protruding from the victim's chest. I smell a Rove; this latest leak is a classic step in his staged, methodical and merciless method of (virtual) assassination. Hmm. Maybe Rove will be the next SecDef.

Saturday, December 18, 2004

Winner -- best in 'Scared of Santa' series

Scared of Santa photo gallery

A great way to deal with holiday stress. Photo 2 is favored by many critics.

The evolutonary biology of acne

[Sorry - I had two typos in the title: ance for acne and evolutonary for evolutionary. Alas, if I fix the typos Blogger will create a new URL and break links to this posting. In this respect I consider Blogger's design to be, fundamentally, "stupid".]

IngentaConnect Article: Acne: A biopsychosocial and evolu...erspective with a focus on shame

Many years ago, it occurred to me that acne was far too common (80% of adolescents are affected) to not have some adaptive advantage. This thought came back to me while listening to a medical lecture.

A quick google scholar search didn't turn up anything interesting (this link, for example, is a particularly pointless article).

So why is it normal for humans to experience a (usually) transiently disfiguring condition of the face -- a condition that appears in women around the time of maximum fertility? A condition which, occasionally, causes long term scarring and decrease in physical attractiveness?

The condition must have large advantages to offset the impact on reproduction.

My guess is the advantage accrues to young adolescent females. It's a way to reduce their attractiveness, and defer age of first conception. Early conceptions may have high mortality for both infant and mother, and thereby increase the lifetime number of children. A condition that decreases the risk of early conception may actually have an adaptive advantage.

Any other theories?

Friday, December 17, 2004

John Glenn on the limited life expectancy of earth-based civilization

Slashdot | Astronaut: 'Single-Planet Species Don't Last'

Slashdot thread on a John Glenn article. The article references are good, the Slashdot commentary is feeble (I think the rise of blogs has killed Slashdot's commentary quality). The Economist had a good issue on this years ago -- they came to the same conclusion about the probability of a meteor annihilation vs. airplane crash.

Glenn exaggerates a bit. Sharks, for example, have been around a long time. Humans are pretty resilient rats and might survive a lot of harm. Our civilization, however, would not.

On the other hand, we have much bigger problems than meteors ahead in the next forty years.

The Mozilla firefox ad -- PDF where names are readable

nytimes-firefox-final.pdf (application/pdf Object)

Yep, I'm there. Probably the only time my name will appear in the NYT (I don't think they've printed any letters so far ...).