Gender gap in academic performance and the age of menarche

We know the age of menarche has decreased in Korea from age 17 to age 12.7 between 1920 and 1986. I think 12.7 is the average age in wealthy nations.

Between 1982 and 2000 Canadian medical school admissions, which are largely grade based, shifted from 50% female to 75% female. The gap in academic performance among median high school students may be even greater. At age 19 boys are far behind girls.

I wonder if the two trends are related.

Homeland security and the Great LA Quake of 2008

If LA had Magnitude 8 quake next month, would we be ready?

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Quake fears for south California

...If all the strain was released at once, it would have enough energy to unleash a magnitude-8 earthquake - roughly the size of the devastating 1906 quake in San Francisco.

...Quakes are predicted to occur on the southern part of the fault every 200-300 years. And according to Professor Fialko, the observed movement on the fault is on a par with the maximum amount of shift the fault has ever experienced between quakes.

I put the "IF" in bold because it sounds like a Magnitude 8 quake is a worse case scenario. It might be more likely that only a part of the slippage would occur. All the same, it would be good to know if LA is ready. It could be tomorrow, it could be 2008, but it sounds like sooner than 2016. I wonder if they've published a probability curve ...

The road to hell: General Formica's version

We all know that the road to hell is gradual. A little bit here, a little bit there. In time the unthinkable becomes commonplace, even acceptable. When that happens, you have arrived. General Formica has arrived.

Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: Impeach George W. Bush. Impeach Him Now

[The New York Times wrote ...]

.... General Formica found that in the third case at a Special Operations outpost, near Tikrit, in April and May 2004, three detainees were held in cells 4 feet high, 4 feet long and 20 inches wide, except to use the bathroom, to be washed or to be interrogated. He concluded that two days in such confinement "would be reasonable; five to seven days would not." Two of the detainees were held for seven days; one for two days, General Formica concluded.

[Spencer Ackerman responds:]

... Here are two such questions you can puzzle over from your home or office. Take all the shelving out of a typical filing cabinet. (My own office cabinet happens to be slightly smaller than the cell described here.) Now lock yourself in it for two days. You may notice you can neither stand up straight nor lie down, and crouching gets really uncomfortable extremely fast. Remember that as an Iraqi detainee, the Geneva Conventions apply to you. Now ask yourself: Why would Formica consider such treatment "reasonable" for two days? And if someone put an American soldier in such conditions for two days--or authorized doing so--what should happen to that person?

This is what's known as torture. If anyone doubts that, I urge them to try the filing cabinet experiment. I particularly urge Ann Coulter to try the filing cabinet.

General Formica feels that two days of this would be quite reasonable. General Formica has finished his journey. America is well down the same road.

The Ecoomist saves the whales

The Economist, a journal that’s been on death’s door these past few years, shows signs of life in the June 17th issue. There's a semi-sentient review of the ailing American middle class [1], an obituary of one of the 3 men who recently committed suicide in our Cuban concentration camp, and the best suggestion I’ve read on how to regulate the hunting of cetaceans (ie. whaling).

They suggest that when the international whaling commission eventually permits hunting, that kill rights not be allocated by quota. Instead they should be allocated by bid. They predict that whaling opponents will buy up all the hunting rights, shutting down the industry forever. After all, the hunters can only bid a fraction of the tiny market for whale meat, opponents would raise hundreds of millions from Americans alone.

Brilliant. This is the sort of thing they used to be able to do regularly.

[1] Paul Krugman, btw today makes a good case today that the end of the American middle class caused the end of bipartisanship in American politics.

Cringely's cruel verdict on Gates

Cringely is well known as one of the most interesting and well connected tech pundits. That's not to say he's always right, in this league batting 300 is respectable.

Here he empties both barrels into Microsoft and Gates.

PBS | I, Cringely . June 15, 2006 - Taking One for the Team

... Microsoft has spent five years and $5 billion NOT shipping Windows Vista. This reflects a company deliberately built in the image of its founder, Bill Gates -- a single-tasking, technically obsolete executive with no checks or balances whatsoever who fills the back seat of his car with fast food wrappers. So Bill has to go, because as an icon, he's great, but as a manager, he sucks.

Part of this is Gates, personally, and part of it is his entourage -- a meritocracy based as much on historical proximity to Bill as anything else. That inner circle has to go, too, and if it doesn't go -- and go immediately -- the required change won't really happen because the one true Bill will just be replaced by a dozen or more Bill clones.

... while Ozzie and Mundie are each capable of failure, it is important to remember that GATES HAS ALREADY FAILED, so coming back isn't really an option, though he may not yet get that.

... The other attribute that Microsoft has historically lacked is ethics, which also comes directly from the cult of Bill, with its infinite shades of gray. Microsoft has to this point generally thrived by stealing technology from other companies. But now it is at the point where there isn't that much left to steal, so Microsoft is faced with operating in a whole new manner -- actually inventing stuff. This requires discipline -- not just discipline to do the work, but discipline not to backslide and steal a little of this and that when the going gets rough.

... So IF THEY DO IT THE RIGHT WAY, look for Gates to move his office to the Foundation immediately, look for several dozen of his closest and oldest associates to leave the company in the next four to six weeks, and look for Steve Ballmer to leave, too, within a year....

I think he underestimates Gates' unique talent for shooting his own horse, but I also think that Microsoft's last real technical achievement was Windows 2000. Microsoft is cursed by its monopoly -- without real competition there's no way for the company to direct itself, and it's demoralizing to get paid well for crummy work. Gates would be a happy man today if the Clinton admistration had succeeded in dividing up the company; his support for Bush blocked that option. That was a Faustean bargain with classically satanic consequences.

I bolded the comment about the challenge of invention. From 1990 to 2005 the best corporate strategy was to be quick to copy. I think it still works in many industries, but it's been tapped ou t in the Wintel world. Apple's too alien to steal from effectively and Dell, HP and Microsoft have crushed all the innovators. Both Dell and Microsoft are now staggering because they've effectively crushed internal innovation ...

The SonicCare Elite, revenge, and the price of consumption

This morning I was reading Sandra Tsing Loh's Atlantic essay on women, money and class. It's mostly entertaining, though I think she lost her way at the end. The bit that caught me eye was brief:

... there’s a new mistress of the shabby pavilions, a new Queen of Cheap! She is New York writer Judith Levine, and I so enjoyed her new book, Not Buying It, that I’ll be “gifting” my copy on this Christmas, in turn, to each member of my penurious family.

Nauseated not just by her own maxed credit cards but by her weakness in a hyperconsumerized world, Levine decided to try to survive, for one year, on just “essentials”—a strategy that saved her $8,000 (out of a gross income of $45,000). Yes, there was a diabetic cat requiring expensive veterinary care, and no, Levine’s vanity (which I respected her for fessing up to) would not allow her to give up her $55 haircuts. But beyond that, the strictures were urban-spartan. She and her partner, Paul, were to buy no clothes or shoes. There would be no restaurants, movies, gifts. They could buy groceries, but not fancy ones. Toilet paper, yes; Q-tips, no (this impressed me—I consider Q-tips essential).

Levine’s yearlong Visa-free journey reveals a hitherto-invisible realm. Without the whirl of buying, vast quantities of time open up—and not just from a lack of purchased entertainment; consuming itself takes time. (In The Paradox of Choice, Barry Schwartz illustrates how we can fritter our days away even on trying to choose the best price for something on the Internet).

Yeah, the price of ownership is high these days. What really irks me is the hidden inflation of Things that Break. (The way we measure inflation ignores the reality that our new stuff doesn't last -- so even it it's cheap to buy once we need to buy it two or three times. Ask me about the $25 back yard sprinker ...). Even when one might arguably come out ahead (AMEX buyers assurance), the time hit is awesome.

So I put down the magazine and picked up my $150 super-duper gum-protecting Sonicare Elite 7500 Power Toothbrush -- and the switch didn't work. It's been flaky for a week or so. The camel's back snapped and the damn thing hit the garbage. Of course, in the digital age, some revenge is a negative Amazon review:

... I bought this for more than $150 at my dentist. It worked well for about a year, though it does get pretty disgusting beneath the top half without fairly intensive cleaning.

After about a year of use, however, the switch broke. It wouldn't turn off or on reliably. Now I'm SURE Philips would have happily replaced it under warranty. The problem is, I can't be bothered with a toothbrush that adds that much complexity to my life. An iPod breaking is bad enough, a $100 plus toootbrush breaking is the proverbial straw.

It also didn't magically prevent the age and gene related recession of my gums -- if it had I'd suffer the time drain. As it is, it's back to the old toothbrush. I'll spend the time I save on better gum care.

I can't afford to buy sh*t. Since there's often nothing else for sale, I just say "no" more and more.

The most useful comment on Gates' retirement

From a man who knows where some of the bodies are buried:

Joel on Software

As of now, Microsoft stock is surprisingly quiet given the announcement that Bill Gates will step down. It should probably be going down. Ozzie is smart but not in the same class as Bill Gates. And it's really Ballmer that needs to go.

Ballmer. Needs. To. Go.

In Our Times: recent favorites

China: The Warring States Period: Terrific show, increased my knowledge and understanding of China by orders of magnitude. Chin: cruel but effective. Han: Chin with a velvet glove. Warring States: Renaissance Italy writ big. Missing thing: no tradition of empirical argument -- argument by authority -- that was bad. The principle of collective punishment and it's efficacy (will it return in the era of affordable havoc?). The most peculiar Mobists. Bragg displays fuzzy thinking about Chinese medicine.

The Rise of the Mammals: Great professorial group, fun interchanges. From reptile to theraspid. Life underfoot. The placentals and the marsupials. The advantages of cold weather and higher oxygen levels. (But why do mammals really leave fewer fossils?)

and here's how to put them on your iPod. Beware, an addiction is a terrible thing.

PS. If you enter "In our Times" in Google, you get the right thing. In Windows Live (Microsoft) search you get junk.

It's not anyone's fault. A social transition.

It continues. It began with abandoning the soul. Without magic, what is a man but genetics and experience? If everything a person is is a product of chance, what does responsibility mean?

That Wild Streak? Maybe It Runs in the Family - New York Times

... A growing understanding of human genetics is prompting fresh consideration of how much control people have over who they are and how they act. The recent discoveries include genes that seem to influence whether an individual is fat, has a gift for dance or will be addicted to cigarettes. Pronouncements about the power of genes seem to be in the news almost daily, and are changing the way some Americans feel about themselves, their flaws and their talents, as well as the decisions they make.

For some people, the idea that they may not be entirely at fault for some of their less desirable qualities is liberating, conferring a scientifically backed reprieve from guilt and self-doubt...

We're slouching towards wisdom. Eventually, after much back and forth, if humanity survives, we will have a very different understanding of responsibility and punishment. An understanding which most of humanity today would consider bizarre, even repulsive. I bet 40 years.

The selfish benefits of blood donation: 650 calories

Isn't the web wonderful? It took a minute to answer my question:

Interesting Facts about Blood Donation

You burn about 650 calories by donating one pint of blood.

That's a 40 minute run at 7 mph for me. I can't run that long at that speed.

Google knows all: Gordon's Notes, anonymity and neural networks

A while back I changed the name of this blog from my name to my middle name and I removed my name from the web page. I wanted to reduce the likelihood of someone researching me and finding the blog. Not a big deal, but it worked.

Then I added links from the blog pointing to my personal web page.

Today Google has again associated me with the blog. Sigh. I guess the association got a bit too strong.

It's all very reminescent of the neural network work that Hopfield taught us about in the early 80s. Google has built a neural network with connections that strengthen and weaken based on entraining. It's a network for defining 'relationships of interest'.

Hmmm. Truly, SkyNet cannot be far away.

Cirrhosis and coffee: cause or effect?

This is a huge correlation:

New Scientist Breaking News - Could coffee protect your liver against alcohol?

People drinking one cup of coffee per day were, on average, 20% less likely to develop alcoholic cirrhosis. For people drinking two or three cups the reduction was 40%, and for those drinking four or more cups of coffee a day the reduction in risk was 80%.

If it holds up it's great science. That doesn't mean coffee helps. It may mean that as the liver becomes more dysfunctional it can't process coffee and users don't tolerate it any more. In fact the coffee could even be harmful.

The Sunday Times (London): exceptional detail on the pursuit of Zarqawi

If this guy isn't making things up, he has some talkative inside sources. I've never read anything close to ths level of detail about special forces operations, including the names of task force 77 members (UK and US) who died hunting Zarqawi. I'd read bits of this before, but nothing close to this level of detail.

How Iraq's ghost of death was cornered - Sunday Times - Times Online:

....Early last week intelligence pinpointed the isolated safe house surrounded by date palm groves in Hibhib, about 40 miles north of Baghdad. It had been sold only a fortnight ago to a Sunni family for about 70m Iraqi dinars.

A Predator drone tracked Rahman as he drove from Baghdad to Hibhib on Wednesday afternoon, while a reconnaissance team from Task Force 77, including a small number of British SAS soldiers, moved stealthily into the village and installed themselves 100 yards from the house. Quietly, they signalled to American commanders that they had found their target.

The decision was made to call in an airstrike, while troops from the 101st Airborne began sealing off the village in case anything went wrong.

Zarqawi's ability to escape had impressed the team...

Glaciers then and now

Special Collections: Pairs of glaciers

You can click on the imges in the pairs to see the past and current images. Astounding.

I first visited a famed Canadian glacier in Banff in 1978. Even then it had receded from the visitors center, built decades earlier on the glacier's edge. When I returned in 1994 it was almost out of sight. The tourist site doesn't mention the meltdown, however:

This glacier can be easily observed from Canadian Highway 93 and specialized buses take tourists out onto the glacier from the Icefield Centre. Investigations of its terminal, recessional and lateral moraines have recorded the movement of the glacier over the past few centuries. The glacier has advanced and retreated several times during this period. Historical records, maps, and photographs dating back to 1897 show that over the last 125 years the glacier has retreated about .93 miles (1.5 km). In 1870, the glacier was about 1.5 times its present total volume and 2.5 times its area. Tree-ring studies indicate that around 1715 the glacier had advanced more than any time in at least the preceding 350 years. The 1715 advancement would have the glacier’s terminus spreading across Highway 93 and reaching the Icefield Centre. Figure 6 shows the relative location of the glacier in 1960 to Highway 93. The Centre is located on the other side of the highway.

In 300 years, at the current melting rate, it will be gone. Probably sooner.

Points for Bush

Since I think of him as the worst thing to hit the world in while, I am obliged to give him style points.

Bush Makes Surprise Visit to Iraq

Bush met all day Monday with top advisers and his Cabinet at Camp David, excusing himself after an after-dinner discussion about Iraq that included Cheney and his top military and intelligence officials. At about 7:45, Bartlett said, Bush told the officials that he was 'losing altitude' and wanted to go to bed to read a bit before falling asleep. Instead he helicoptered to Andrews Air Force Base.

And then flew to Iraq. Definite style points. Rove is in good form.