What if Clinton had been elected to a third term?

Amidst a Nobel-inspired burst of Bush-mourning, comes some speculation about what would have happened if the 22nd amendment hadn't applied to Clinton I. He'd have defeated Bush of course...

Daring Fireball

... Nice little video celebrating the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, but I don’t get their “it’s a good thing because Bush can’t be elected to another term” angle. If it weren’t for the 22nd Amendment, Bush never would have been elected in the first place, because Bill Clinton would have cruised to a third term...

But then, in this alternate reality, what would have happened next? I think there's at least an even chance that the Clinton team would have prevented 9/11. On the other hand, by the end of the Clinton administration the American right was reaching levels of rage not seen since the 1930s -- or perhaps the American Civil War. It's forgotten now, but we had a burgeoning right wing indigenous terrorist movement in the late 1990s. It continued for a while after Bush won, but it had lost its focus. It was returning to a baseline state when 9/11 diverted wingnut rage overseas.

If Clinton had returned for a third term, or even if the Supreme Court had done its constitutional duty and "elected" Gore, there's a good chance we'd now be dealing with a local terrorist movement as well as an international one.

The irony is excessive.

High altitude exertion will damage your brain

John Hawks quotes R. Douglas Fields:

John Hawks Anthropology Weblog : 2007 09

.... The body is remarkably resilient--does the brain recover from these mountaineering wounds? To answer this important question, the researchers re-examined the same climbers three years after the expedition, with no other high-altitude climbing intervening. In all cases, the brain damage was still evident on the second brain scan.

Still, Aconcagua is one of the world's highest mountains -- in the top 100. Mont Blanc, in the Alps, is less extreme. With a summit at 4810 meters, it is climbed each year by thousands of mountaineers who probably do not expect injury to their 'second favorite organ,' to use Woody Allen's nomenclature for the brain. Yet the researchers found that of seven climbers reaching the summit of Mount Blanc, two returned with enlarged VR spaces.

Hawks notes: "the altitude of Mont Blanc is substantially lower than the Everest base camp at 5500 meters."

Better imaging technologies now show that high altitude exertion will cause significant irreversible brain damage in many people, very high altitude extertion will damage all brains.

Damn.

Something nice about Apple - better repair service

I wrote recently about Apple's longterm but worsening quality problems. In a similar vein Business Week notes increasing service issues, including worsening ratings from Consumer Reports. So I was pleased to hear something encouraging about their service ...

So how will Apple maintain that golden rep for customer service?:

....Another improvement: while Apple used to send broken Macs to repair depots, they know do more than 70% of repairs in in-store repair shops. Even more impressive, 50% of them are fixed and returned to the customer on the same day, and 75% are back home on the second day....

About a year ago I mentioned I didn't go to Apple for repairs because of the rotten reputation of their centralized and outsourced repair services. Instead I used a local Apple dealer (not an Apple store, though we have two of those). It's great to hear they've moved repairs back to the local stores.

Carter on Cheney ... and Bush

I'm surprised I missed this. It didn't seem to get much attention. It's worth remembering that Jimmy Carter made "human rights" a primary theme of his presidency. I suspect the human rights agreements he signed with the USSR, which were much mocked at the time, had a greater impact than most remember now. (emphases mine)

Jimmy Carter: U.S. tortures prisoners | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle Oct 10, 2007

WASHINGTON — The U.S. tortures prisoners in violation of international law, former President Jimmy Carter said Wednesday, adding that President Bush makes up his own definition of torture.

"Our country for the first time in my life time has abandoned the basic principle of human rights," Carter said on CNN. "We've said that the Geneva Conventions do not apply to those people in Abu Ghraib prison and Guantanamo, and we've said we can torture prisoners and deprive them of an accusation of a crime."...

... In an interview that aired Wednesday on BBC, Carter ripped Vice President Dick Cheney as "a militant who avoided any service of his own in the military."

Carter went on to say Cheney has been "a disaster for our country. I think he's been overly persuasive on President George Bush."...

In the CNN interview, the Democratic former president disparaged the field of Republican presidential candidates.

"They all seem to be outdoing each other in who wants to go to war first with Iran, who wants to keep Guantanamo open longer and expand its capacity — things of that kind," Carter said...

Thank you Jimmy Carter, you are a great American.

Carter, by the way, won the Nobel in 2002. I expect he'll be in the audience when Gore speaks, I hope he takes that opportunity to speak again.

How bad can a Business Week article be?

Daring Fireball rips apart a Business Week article on Universal's music distribution plan. It's a good dissection, but it begs the question -- what kind of a deal did BW get for playing the fool? They can't be this stupid by accident -- can they?

Google's storage model: fixed price, more service

I was a paying Google/Picasa Web Album customer [1] when Google introduced its integrated Gmail + Web Album storage model. That meant I started off with 10GB combined, based on the $20 or so I was paying for my photo store. I've used 4.5 GB, or what was almost 50% a day or two ago.

Today I'm back at 34%: "4.5 GB (34%) of 13 GB". Google has increased the storage pool by 33% for the same price. I've read that this will be their model going forward -- keep the price the same, but increase the store.

I like that model.

Curiously, back when I just used Gmail, I'd typically run at 30-35% of capacity. I was using storage up at the same rate that Google was adding it. Now, in the combined model, I'm back in the same range.

Things will change if Google ever introduces an S3 type online data store, or an online backup service. Then I'll need to buy a lot more storage. Given their current problems [1] I don't expect to see that before the middle of 2008.

[1] This was back when their Web Album iPhoto plug-in actually worked. Apple's iLife 2008 broke it two months ago, and Google has been unable or unwilling to fix it -- or even to let users know it doesn't work any more. This fits with my recent Google Apps experience. I don't need the recent 'Google to Facebook exodus' meme to tell me Google is struggling.

When Google fails and an expert succeeds

We were looking for a cheap corporate videoconferencing solution that would allow us to share whiteboard, and even projected screens, in regular lighting conditions.

We knew that Apple's discontinued iSight webcam was good enough, but it's, you know, discontinued. In any case, we don't have Macs at the office (yet). We knew from recent research and past experience that no other consumer grade webcam would work. We also knew that firewire based camcorders (digital video cameras) had been known to work with OS X iChat AV and on XP wiht help from 3rd party software, but I thought firewire camcorders were extinct. USB camcorders, for unclear reasons, don't seem to have the ability to act as a webcam on XP, though there's some software that claims to support them on OS X.

I spent some time on Google and Amazon looking for a firewire consumer camcorder, but all the pages I found were old, and many of those were in decline. None of the camcorders they mentioned are sold now. I searched on Canon's web site and on Amazon, but I couldn't find anything. Even now that I know the Canon ZR 850 has what I need, I still can't find that information on the Canon website.

So a colleague asked at the Roseville Minnesota National Camera office. An expert there thought we had two choices, but he recommended a hands-on test.

We tested onsite with my MacBook and we found both of the old-fashioned camcorders worked with iChat AV. Next we'll buy one and test in an XP box with a firewire card and some XP add-on software. If it works we'll buy a few cameras for the team. We'll pay a premium for the cameras, but it's just payment for help we got -- and its corporate money.

Which brings me to the moral of the story. Even in these days, there are some seemingly easy questions Google can't answer. This wasn't a question about cancer therapy, all we needed to learn was if there were any firewire consumer camcorders left on the market. That seemingly simple question required a human expert [1] to answer.

[1] I now realize I probably could have asked in Apple's iChat AV forum, but we were thinking XP, not Mac. Even then, of course, we'd be relying on a human expert.

Do children watch television any more?

For reasons that have everything to do with expediency, and nothing to do with virtue, our children don't watch television - broadcast or cable. They do watch a total of 3 DVDs a week, and some of them are commercial-free extracts of television shows. Even in that case, Loony Tunes and the Flintstones beat Jimmy Neutron.

That's not all that remarkable.

The remarkable thing is the kids don't complain. We've been doing this for ten years; when we started I assumed the complaints would rise with school and peer pressure.

Nothing happened. As far as I can tell, there's no peer pressure.

It occurred to me that maybe children don't watch television any more. This 2001 UK study suggests that was so even then ...

British children prefer Internet surfing to watching TV - study - (2001)

....A recent survey of UK families by the Family Assurance Group has revealed that surfing the Internet is now seven times more popular among British children than watching television. The survey also showed that some young Internet users spend up to 70 hours per week online...

Our children do complain about their miserly screen-time allotments, and they're starting to complain about the lack of any game console.

So, quietly, without my taking note of it, children's television watching seems to going the way of smoking [1]. I wonder if they'll ever get the habit, or if television as I've known it [2] is going to be largely gone within 15 years.

I find the way these things leave to be at least as noteworthy as the way they arrive ....

[1] We smelled a cigarette at a park the other day. Everyone looked around startled, but it seemed to have wafted in from far away.
[2] Ok, sort of known it. I can't actually watch TV. Even the "science" and "history" shows give me hives. Some of the commercials aren't bad though.

Security outsourcing: The US needs its mercenaries

American security operations have, it is alleged, been outsourced to a far greater degree than most people imagine. Hillhouse claims we can no longer perform even covert operations without our mercenaries.

She doesn't describe why everyone from the FBI to the CIA to the NSA to the Army has been privatizing core operations. Surely it can't be to save money -- Blackwater operatives make far more than their military counterparts.

I suspect it's all about bypassing federal rules and American law. There are many operations the FBI cannot perform, but it can always outsource these operations to the less constrained private sector.

It will take many years of non-GOP rule to make a dent in their colossal mess.

Phil Nugent: the mind of GWB

The Phil Nugent Experience: Living the Dream is a medium-length, articulate, occasionally humorous, rant on the nature and character of GWB. Keep at hand for next November, when the media will be writing fond farewells to a "statesman". It will be an essential anti-emetic.

You can't use a smartphone on an airplane -- even in "airplane mode"

Current FAA regulations say you can't use a smartphone on an airplane -- even if the phone portion of the unit is disabled:

Travel: ATA Tries To Have You Arrested For Using Your iPhone In "Airplane Mode" - Consumerist

...Well, as much as ATA's attendents were dicks about it, they were right Buried in the Contract of Carriage under Rule 190 (Baggage) on page 37 it reads: '...Cellular phones, cellular phone games and pager use is prohibited after door closing and should remain off in flight. This includes cell phones equipped with airplane mode function.'...

This was taken from the comments section about a man threatened with arrest for using his iPhone, in airplane mode, on an airplane.

So if you have a separate phone and a PDA, you can turn off the phone and use the PDA. If you have a smartphone though, you must turn off the phone and the PDA both.

Except that mostly flight attendants ignore the rule and treat a phone that's not be an ear as though it were a generic device.

Until the plane lands, at with point if you have a separate phone and a PDA, you can turn on the phone but you must turn off the PDA. If you have a smartphone though, you can use both.

Does anyone think we have a problem here?

Not to mention that whenever I open a laptop on a plane, it shows me every laptop with an open WiFi peer-to-peer port on the plane. (I then remember to turn off my WiFi.)

Sigh.

The future of the POB?

The coalition that ruled America from 2000 to 2006 is, the world prays, in its death throes. The increasingly shattered GOP is now better known as the POB ...

Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal

... As one of my ex-Republican friends put it yesterday: the left-wing Democrats are the party of Jefferson and Roosevelt, the right-wing Democrats are the party of Lincoln and Eisenhower, and today's Republicans are the party of Bozo...

So where is the POB going? More importantly, how many Americans belong to the POB?

I think we'd do ok with two years of Democrat control of the Presidency and the Congress, but in the longer run I'd like a GOP, not POB, controlled Senate.

Assuming that Clinton takes the White House [1], who will reform the POB? I don't like Guiliani, but I have to admit the man has a certain stubborn quality that might make him an effective POB reformer.

[1] I'm an Edwards supporter myself, but I'd throw a victory party for Clinton or Obama too.

Thank you Mr. Gore

Gore and UN panel win Nobel prize.

Too cheap to bill: storage and electricity

This post is neat on various levels. Read the whole thing to see what he says about the cost of storage:

Rough Type: Nicholas Carr's Blog: Storage: too cheap to meter?: "I saw Chris Anderson make a presentation in which he quoted the famous 1954 prediction by Lewis Strauss, the chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, that 'our children will enjoy in their homes electrical energy too cheap to meter.' Having paid my own electric bill last night, I think I can say with confidence that Strauss was slightly off in his forecast."

Storage costs have fallen much faster than the costs of bandwidth or processing power. On the other hand, electricity costs may start rising exponentially over the next few years. Rising electricity costs and the limits of CPU design may mean that in the near future processing costs will rise, but electricity rise may have less impact on storage.

Storage costs look to keep dropping for many years to come. Sooner or later, and maybe sooner, storage may be bundled as a freebie with services such as bandwidth.

Its interesting to think about what relative costs of computing, including heat dissipation, will do to the design of our end-to-end computing environment over the next few years. Getting that right is worth so much money I'm sure a lot of people have thought it out in depth -- but not published all the results.

Captcha death: My DeLong comment fails

I was trying to submit a comment to Brad DeLong's typepad based blog:

Grasping Reality with Both Hands: Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal - typepad comments

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As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This test is used to prevent automated robots from posting comments.

I authenticated using my TypePad ID, but I was still asked to pass the captcha test. I tried four times, but the captcha kept getting more and more cryptic. I had to give up.

I swear I have a high res 21" LCD and I can still read. True, I am a bit demented, but so is everyone over 25.

I assume that captcha difficulty is being driven by the spam wars. I think we've now hit the wall. The spam technology and/or techniques have defeated the captcha.

It's time for phase II - the end of anonymous comments and robust identity management.