Profiling: the astrology of criminology

Schneier sent me to this New Yorker article on the pseudo-science of FBI "profiling". It turns out to be about as scientific as lie detectors -- meaning not at all.

Dept. of Criminology: Dangerous Minds: Reporting & Essays: The New Yorker:

They had been at it for almost six hours. The best minds in the F.B.I. had given the Wichita detectives a blueprint for their investigation. Look for an American male with a possible connection to the military. His I.Q. will be above 105. He will like to masturbate, and will be aloof and selfish in bed. He will drive a decent car. He will be a “now” person. He won’t be comfortable with women. But he may have women friends. He will be a lone wolf. But he will be able to function in social settings. He won’t be unmemorable. But he will be unknowable. He will be either never married, divorced, or married, and if he was or is married his wife will be younger or older. He may or may not live in a rental, and might be lower class, upper lower class, lower middle class or middle class. And he will be crazy like a fox, as opposed to being mental. If you’re keeping score, that’s a Jacques Statement, two Barnum Statements, four Rainbow Ruses, a Good Chance Guess, two predictions that aren’t really predictions because they could never be verified—and nothing even close to the salient fact that BTK was a pillar of his community, the president of his church and the married father of two.

The Jacques, Barnum, Rainbow Ruse, etc are techniques used by professional "psychics" on their marks.

Second Life: 2.5 billion lines of code

I believe this is more code than runs in Vista (emphases mine) ...

OOPSLA 2007 « Dan Weinreb’s Weblog

... Jim Purbrick and Mark Lentczner of Linden Labs, the creators of Second Life, explained a great deal about what Second Life is and how it works. The most interesting thing is that 15% of the residents actually do coding, in a language that lets you make active objects. There are 30,000,000 running scripts, 2.5 billion lines of code. Generally there are 15,000 scripts actively running on each “region” (processor), updating at 45 frames per second, and there are 4,000 processors. There are 30,000,000 concurrent threads. The language itself they described as “terrible”; they are working on bringing up the Mono implementation of the CLR so they can provide good languages. There are some complicated issues in which threads must be migrated from one CPU to another as an object moves around within regions of the Second Life world. The most impressive thing is how many people with little or no technical training are doing programming. They also talked about how the Linden Labs developers, eight of them at five physical locations, use Second Life itself as a collaborative development environment; they say it works really well, particularly due to having stereo audio that’s good enough that you can tell where sounds are coming from. During the talk they showed Second Life on the big screen and moved around and interacted with people, so that you could see what it’s like...

One of the common themes of modern science fiction is that the human world fissions into mutually incomprehensible domains.

Babel 2.0, in other words.

I can see that happening.

How to demo software

Joel Spolksy, geek god, tells us what he learned about demoing software -- after a world wide software demo.

How to demo software - Joel on Software:

...It’s already all a blur. 26 cities. 6 weeks. 2913 attendees. $160,000. 23 hotels, one Cambridge college, one British library, and a “Sociëteit Het Meisjeshuis.” (“Gesundheit!”)...

Stuff like this is like finding diamonds scattered on the front lawn.

It's hard to remember there was a time this sort of thing wasn't freely available.

America, the richest third world nation

Twenty six years ago I watched a long line of children and teens waiting for dental care. This was in the north of Thailand.

The dentists pulled bad teeth, one after the other. I don't recall any anesthesia, there wasn't time for much.

I think one of the children cried, and I recall a sense of disapproval from his peers.

It was a long time ago.

Things have changed since then. Now we have those lines in America ...

Health and Medicine - Insurance - Health and Managed Care - Doctors - New York Times

... The group, most often referred to as RAM, has sent health expeditions to countries like Guyana, India, Tanzania and Haiti, but increasingly its work is in the United States, where 47 million people — more than 15 percent of the population — live without health insurance. Residents of remote rural areas are less likely than their urban and suburban counterparts to have health insurance and more likely to be in fair or poor health...

And so each summer, shortly after the Virginia-Kentucky District Fair and Horse Show wraps up at the fairgrounds, members of Virginia Lions Clubs start bleaching the premises, readying them for RAM’s volunteers, who, working in animal stalls and beneath makeshift tents, provide everything from teeth cleaning and free eyeglasses to radiology and minor surgery. The problem, says RAM’s founder, Stan Brock, is always in the numbers, with the patients’ needs far outstripping what his team can supply. In Wise County, when the sun rose and the fairground gates opened at 5:30 on Friday morning, more than 800 people already were waiting in line. Over the next three days, some 2,500 patients would receive care, but at least several hundred, Brock estimates, would be turned away. He adds: “There comes a point where the doctors say: ‘Hey, I gotta go. It’s Sunday evening, and I have to go to work tomorrow.’...

Dental care is particularly in demand.

Comet Holmes - it's quite simple

This isn't unusual.

Comet Holmes and the case of the Disappearing Tail | The Register

"Amateur astronomers the world over have been stunned and amazed by the weirdest new object to appear in the sky in memory," wrote Sky and Telescope .

"The comet shocked skywatchers as it went from a dim 17th magnitude then suddenly to 3 magnitude" wrote Theo from the Pacific Northwest.*

Zorgonian battle cruisers always do that on approach to the target system.

Consumers Union Toy Safety campaign: sign up now

Via TMW I've learned that Consumers Union has an advocacy campaign for toy safety. They want inspections funded and they want a real inspection program.

Of course I signed up immediately. They generate email to senators and file names.

Kmart's lead jewelry was the most recent episode I've commented on. It's only one of many such.

Highly recommended, though of course what we really need is to get the GOP out of the government.

Be sure to use your spam email (for me that's a Yahoo account). I don't trust CU not to spam me.

Next they can tackle generic drug quality. Our son uses a medication which recently came to use with an unusual scent and a somewhat different appearance. It's produced by a Spanish chemical/pharmaceutical vendor that obtains products from "Asia" (meaning China).

We're not giving him any more until we check this out.

I remember a time when it would never have occurred to us to worry.

Sign the toy petition. Mostly, though, don't forget we need a different government.

The hidden insurance problem: they can play the game better than we can

Last week I wrote that it is impossible for a sane human to truly judge the value of employment benefits, particularly health care benefits.

That complexity is not accidental. Complexity facilitates deception. The consumer can't really price the product, but the vendor can. A product that seems to offer good consumer value may be a trap.

It's a huge competitive advantage. Companies that don't leverage it will disappear, until finally it's the only way to play the game.

Bob Herbert provides a great example of the game in action:

It’s Not Just the Uninsured - Bob Herbert - New York Times:

...The next round of bad news came in a double dose. One night, after coming home from school, Brittney suddenly found that she couldn’t walk. The cancer had attacked her spinal cord. As the doctors geared up to treat this new disaster, Ms. Hightower received word that her insurance policy had maxed out. The company would not pay for any further treatment.

Ms. Hightower was aghast: “I said, ‘What do you mean? It was supposed to be a $3 million policy.’ ”

She hadn’t understood that there was an annual limit of $75,000 on benefits. “It was just devastating when they told me that,” she said.

Most of the debate about access to health care has centered on people without insurance. But there are cases like this one all over the country in which individuals are working and paying for coverage that, perversely, kicks out when a devastating illness kicks in...

Few consumers would knowingly purchase an insurance policy with a $75K yearly cap, but that cap can make the coverage very profitable.

The best way out of this trap is to create offerings that apply across a state or region, and make the available to all persons in the region. This allows newspapers, consumer organizations, and government to analyze plans and expose deception. The next best option is to create standard care scenarios and require insurers to describe how their plans would operate under the scenarios.

Lastly, we could make insurance companies liable when a "reasonable person" would be unable to understand the true costs and benefits ofa given plan.

There are lots of ways we could make things better - even without reforming the health care system.

A year from now, we might even hope that some of them might become law.

The best pro-Hillary argument

The best argument for Hilary:

Hillary Fries the Waffle - Gail Collins - New York Times:

...All these people believe pretty much the same thing, and when it’s time to take on the Republicans, I would prefer the candidate who knows how to change the subject and stack the deck."...

The best argument against: Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton.

Krugman on social security: I think he's wrong

Well, it's not that he's wrong by the numbers, it's that he's being politic.

I think he's right when he says the GOP attacks on social security are ideologically motivated and deceptive, and I agree that Obama has shown he's not ready to be president by falling for that ploy.

On the other hand, he's being tricksy when he deemphasizes the (small) rationalist part of the GOP attack on social security.

First Paul's blog post today, with emphases mine:

Long-run budget math - Paul Krugman - Op-Ed Columnist - New York Times Blog

... Start with the current position. Last year, federal spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid was 8.5 percent of GDP, equally divided between Social Security and the health care programs. Dismal long-run projections, like those of the GAO, have this total rising by 10 percentage points of GDP by mid-century.

So, how much of this is a Social Security problem? Pundits like Tim Russert love to point out that in its early days Social Security had 16 workers paying in for every retiree receiving benefits. But this is irrelevant; looking forward, we’ll see the worker-beneficiary ratio fall from about 3 to 2 as the baby boomers retire. This will raise the percentage of GDP spent on Social Security from about 4 to 6 — that is, a rise of about 2 percentage points of GDP, which is a small fraction of the entitlements problem. See, for example, this chart from my NY Review of Books piece on the subject.

What’s more, Social Security has already been strengthened to deal with this rise. In 1983 the payroll tax was increased and adjustments made to the retirement age, so as to build up a trust fund. According to the “intermediate” projection of the Social Security trustees, this trust fund will be exhausted in 2041 — but they also present a more optimistic scenario, based on economic assumptions that don’t seem at all outlandish, in which the trust fund goes on forever.

This brings us to the claim that the trust fund doesn’t exist, because it’s invested in government bonds. The full explanation of why this is sophistry is here.

I followed Paul's link. These are his words from that document (emphases mine):

...The lesser problem is that if you say that there is no link between the payroll tax and future Social Security benefits - which is what denying the reality of the trust fund amounts to - then Greenspan and company pulled a fast one back in the 1980s: they sold a regressive tax switch, raising taxes on workers while cutting them on the wealthy, on false pretenses. More broadly, we're breaking a major promise if we now, after 20 years of high payroll taxes to pay for Social Security's future, declare that it was all a little joke on the public.

The bigger problem for those who want to see a crisis in Social Security's future is this: if Social Security is just part of the federal budget, with no budget or trust fund of its own, then, well, it's just part of the federal budget: there can't be a Social Security crisis. All you can have is a general budget crisis. Rising Social Security benefit payments might be one reason for that crisis, but it's hard to make the case that it will be central.

So, is it plausible that Greenspan & Co pulled a fast one in 1980, and that our government can break a major promise?

Cough.

Of course it's plausible.

That's where Paul is being politic. I respect him for that - there's no alternative in today's world.

Still, by his own words, it's only if you assume an honest and responsible government that we face a health care funding crisis; if you assume a corrupt, stupid and sleazy government, one only half as bad as our current regime, we do face a general budget crisis.

We can attack that crisis by defunding social security (the GOP plan, though motivated more by ideology than budgetary sanity), or by limiting what we spend on health care (a rational alternative, or by inventing a new, vastly cheaper, health care system (the optimists proposal).

Or, we could slow the progression of the physiologic Alzheimer's process by 10%. That would enable delayed retirement and it would substantially reduce future health care costs. It would resolve our pending financial crisis.

Anyone for investing in Alzheimer's disease research?

How bad a recession?

I read the Economist yesterday.

It's like seeing an old friend that's been hitting the sauce hard. When I left her she still had some of the old style, but now she's a gutter drunk - a slightly less stupid reflection of the WSJ's editorial pages.

She still has some of her old habits though. She's again projecting a US recession, though hoping China will save the rest of the world.

The Economist has called about ten of the last three recessions, so I pay more attention to DeLong, Krugman, and the Econbrowser. Thing is, they tend to agree that a recession is probably underway.

So then the question is how deep will it be.

I'm not an economist, so I don't have to worry anyone will act on my speculations. I'm also a "glass half empty and poisoned besides" [1] kind of guy, so I do tend to over call these things. (A bit like the old Economist, which also had a strong pessimistic streak [2].)

I think the severity range is probably wider than what we were accustomed to under Clinton or even Bush I. During those days (more with Clinton) we had governments that actually worried about national finances. With Bush II our economics is pretty much supply-side loony.

If government policies matter, then there's a good chance we're far outside a stable operational range. If the physics of economics matter, we have farther to fall.

So I'm pessimistic [2]. Of course, I always am!

[1] If the glass is poisoned, then being half-empty may result in a painful but non-lethal dose. So you see, I'm really an optimist in deep disguise.

[2] I follow the neuropsych literature on pessimism. It turns out that humans are programmed for irrational optimism -- probably because it's good for the species even if it leads to unwise individual actions (like launching a startup). So, if one adjusts for the human bias towards irrational optimism, I'm truly a rational realist.

Kmart's lead jewelry - slow learners

Kmart's low priced jewelry turns out to have a lot of lead in it, even the pieces labeled lead free. It's safe to assume they're manufactured in China, since everything is.

No great surprise, but they handled it surprisingly badly (emphases mine)...

Kmart Items Marked Safe Had Lead - New York Times

... Ms. Johnson took the [lead detection] machine home to practice using it. On a whim, she aimed it at her daughter’s new earrings. Every part of the “lead free” jewelry contained lead, she said. One piece, a metal charm hanging from a necklace, contained 520,000 parts per million of lead. By comparison, the Consumer Product Safety Commission is considering a ban on children’s jewelry with concentrations of lead higher than 600 parts per million, said Scott Wolfson, a spokesman for the commission.

“As a mother, it really frightens me that there’s something that looks completely benign that could kill my child,” Ms. Johnson said.

She said she complained to Kmart a month ago but received no response. She also filed a complaint with the safety commission. Ms. Johnson has not yet received any word from the commission, which does not comment on specific complaints.

“If we were to find a product with 52 percent total lead, it would be recalled immediately,” Mr. Wolfson said. “That would be a dangerous product for children.”

The jewelry is marketed to adults and is not intended for children, Mr. Brathwaite said in his statement. Kmart declined to disclose which companies make or supply the Accessories line.

Kmart must be taking stupid pills. They should have come up with a much smarter response.

Epocrates for the iPhone

Epocrates is a must-have product for many physicians. It started out on Palm and moved to Microsoft's PDA platform (whatever they call it today), but the first is dying and the second deserves to die.

There's a Blackberry solution I believe, but the BB is very corporate. It's not very interesting if you don't use an Exchange server.

That leaves ... yes ... the iPhone.

Epocrates sent this out today. Clearly they want to be there...

Epocrates Supporter,

Thank you for your interest in using Epocrates software on the iPhone.

We are pleased to inform you that our free online drug reference has now been optimized for the iPhone and iPod touch. Simply point your Safari browser to http://m.epocrates.com/iphone.

Please note that we are eagerly awaiting the Software Development Kit (SDK) that Apple recently announced will be available in early 2008 to provide you with iPhone software that can be downloaded to your device.

Sign up through our Support Center to receive updates as we strive to better serve iPhone customers.

Eagerly is probably an understatement. If Apple really does deliver on their vague SDK promises, there will be a tsunami of medical applications developed for the iPhone.

BTW, I think they will deliver.

PS. I think they used to spell it ePocrates. Looks like they changed.

Come the clones

I used to think that one good feature of the religious right was that they might slow the day we harvest clones for organs.

Then came the eugenics revolution and the end of Downs syndrome. Emily is convinced there's a causal relationship between the rise of 21st century eugenics and the collapse of the GOP's anti-abortion movement. (Oh, you didn't notice it had collapsed? It has.)

Next came the American embrace of torture. At least 50% of Americans, in most polls, are just fine with torture.

Now this:

Monkey Embryos Cloned for Stem Cells - washingtonpost.com

...Researchers in Oregon reported yesterday that they had created the world's first fully formed, cloned monkey embryos and harvested batches of stem cells from them...

If it works in monkeys it will work in us.

So now we have our stem cell source. Next up will be to let the clone produce differentiated tissues that we have a use for. Then it will be early organs.

I knew I'd miss the religious right.

Global warming in Minnesota: no more outdoor ice rinks

Global warming is not a theory in Minnesota, and in the Twin Cities in particular. Last year there was almost no cross country skiing anywhere in the state, and there were only a few weeks of outdoor ice. This winter looks no better for outdoor skating.  Emphases mine.

Old Man Winter getting a little wimpy

... This winter will likely be warmer-than-normal again across most of Minnesota, according to a forecast released Thursday. And if trends continue, it will be winter nights where warming could be most pronounced.

Twin Cities winter lows, averaged over the most recent 30 years, have increased 1.6 and 2.0 degrees over the official normals. It's an increase that University of Minnesota Extension climatologist and meteorologist Mark Seeley called "emphatic."

He noted that the dynamic is right in line with what most global warming science has outlined. Warming should be most obvious in northern latitudes on winter nights because heat is more effectively trapped by greenhouse gases during long sunless hours than it is during the more volatile days of summer.

Also, Seeley said, recent studies have indicated that a warmer atmosphere, which has more heat-trapping water vapor, may be generating more heat-trapping clouds.

While more moisture may also result in more snow, National Weather Service meteorologist Karen Trammell added that warmer conditions can also mean less continual snow cover, which allows the ground to absorb more radiation.

The Twin Cities, of course, ought to be getting warmer overall as heat-absorbing pavement spreads outward. But the numbers also show that winter temperatures across the entire state have been on a nearly steady and steep upward trend for about 20 years, with seasonal averages since 1998 running above anything in the 106-year record....

The nights are what make the ice rinks work -- or become puddle pools. Warmer nights means no more outdoor hockey.

Our mayor is working to put up some rinks with coolers -- we only need a 2-4 degree drop at night to get the ice to work. Life in MN without ice skating and hockey is significantly less fun.

The only bright note is we're entering La Nina season, so we might get some snow cover up north.

We need a web page of unit conversion disasters

Someone needs to put together a web page of metric/english unit conversion disasters. This was only one of many:

Damn Interesting » The Gimli Glider

...Pearson and Quintal had determined the fuel weight by multiplying the the number of dripsticked liters by 1.77, as indicated by the documentation. However, unbeknownst to the pilots and the fuel crew, this multiplier provided the weight in imperial pounds; the new, all-metric 767 was based on kilograms, and required a multiplier of 0.8. As a consequence of this documentation disconnect, Flight 143 had left Montreal with roughly half the necessary fuel...