The new signs: Generation X, Y and B

A colleague's presentation included a Generation X, Y, and B (boomer) profile.

It was good fun, reminded me of the periodic "what's your sign" astrology kicks that cycle through. Silly, but fun.

The closest thing I could find to her presentation were these Gen X, Y and B profiles.

Personally I seem to break down this way:

• Values: X
  
• Attributes: Y
  
• Work: Y/X (they don't seem so different really)
  

I really couldn't fit myself into my chronological group (boomer), but that shouldn't surprise anyone. I've always been a geek.

The GOP thanks heaven for Al Franken

Even if by some miracle Franken wins, it's time to take apart the Minnesota DFL party.

SFGate: Politics Blog : GOP Clings to Firewall

... Ensign said it will be a really bad night if Republican incumbent Norm Coleman loses his Minnesota seat to Al Franken. 'We were very fortunate' to get Franken as an opponent in what looked like a race Democrats were set to win...

We need to start by getting rid of the caucus system in this state.

From now on this is the first thing I'm going to ask every DFL member I speak with:

How do we get rid of the Minnesota DFL caucus system?

Beating email - it's doable. Here's how.

[I'm doing a talk on a related topic, so I'm incrementally updating this post. Most recent update: 7/14/08]

Feeble NYT article: Lost in E-Mail, Tech Firms Face Self-Made Beast. Thousands of emails, can't manage, etc.

At home I am not so reliable a correspondent, but not terrible. At work though, email is a part of my job. These are the lessons learned over decades of business email use.

First, start with the goals:

1. Solve business problems efficiently.
2. Build respectful relationships
3. Eliminate replies. Inferior email multiplies. Superior email terminates. Get the job done with a single message.
4. Turn your work email into a searchable knowledge repository that will add value over years and decades.
   

Here's what works:

1. Email is an essential part of my job, but there's no credit for email work. It's a means to an end. I schedule 1 protected hour in the am, 1 hour in the pm, and deal with it opportunistically in between. I switch Outlook into offline mode so I don't get distracted by notices between scheduled times.
2. When sharing knowledge, make your email a link to a blog post or a wiki. Instead of sending updated emails, update the blog post or add to the wiki. Interested persons can subscribe to the post/wiki feed. This helps eliminate
3. Manage email using some variant of the GTD two minute rule.
   
4. No email lists. Lists should have been buried long ago. If there's no feed, the owners are clueless. In theory I could auto-route into a folder and make them fodder for full text search, but in practice I don't do email lists.
5. Use a feed reader for event subscription/notification. No Sharepoint 2007 email alerts, just feeds.
6. Don't file email. The single killer feature of Outlook is the ability to edit the subject line. If email is worth keeping, then revise the subject line as needed and dump into the Save folder. Full text search, like Windows Search or Spotlight was invented to save you filing time. I do have 4-5 active project folders I throw things in, but this takes me no time and I don't worry if I get it wrong.
7. Learn your full test search engine very well. You will use it all the time.
   
8. Keep only the last email in a discussion thread. When I Search and find a long thread I delete the redundant emails as a part of my search work (quite fast, makes future search more effective).
9. Spend time on emails. Bad emails create more bad emails. Craft the subject line carefully. Say what you need/want done/want help with. If the email is informational only say no action required. Clean up the copied email thread in the email so only the core information is there. Eliminate the thread.
10. Email breeds email. Send as few as possible. Learn to reply to complex emails by creating an appointment.
11. Don't do anything complex by email. Email is for simple things. Email should fit in a small window.
12. Never bcc except to yourself. Use CC very carefully. Resist people who extend CC chains. The To line is strictly for people who have to do things.
    
13. Don't send thank you emails to people who know you. They are a necessary email for many coworkers however.
14. Don't use email to manage tasks. Drag and drop an email to a task icon
    
15. Reserve 1-2 hours twice a day for email.
16. If you find you're doing frequent important emails with one correspondent, schedule a weekly 30-45 minute meeting. Put all the topics into tasks or an appointment agenda. Discuss and send a summary email if needed.
17. Triage your incoming email by rules that operate on sender and to line. If I'm not on the to line I rarely respond to an email.
    

I've got another ten or so, but I'll add them later. Out of time for now ...

The point is, it can be done. A key is to improve email quality to reduce volume.

This is largely cultural, the only technology component is the ability to edit subject lines (Are you listening Gmail?) and full text search. Culture takes a while to develop, but we're getting there.

Google's minimal progress towards sharing files - now PDF

So now we have Google's own products and a PDF viewer:

Google Docs supports PDF upload, viewing and sharing:

...Google Docs now allows you to upload PDF files to store them online. You can view uploaded PDFs right in your browser, and determine who else should have access...

Sharing PDFs through this mechanism is very helpful, I'll definitely make use of this.

The news does, however, remind me that it's been two years since I expected an imminent general file serving function for Google Apps.

Clearly, there's a reason they don't want to support other file types. Copyright violation? Performance? What?

Restoring food safety in America - thank you South Korea!

McCain will continue to support the GOP led destruction of the FDA, including Bush appointees who sabotage their own departments:

Op-Ed Columnist - Paul Krugman - Bad Cow Disease - Op-Ed - NYTimes.com

... when mad cow disease was detected in the U.S. in 2003, the Department of Agriculture was headed by Ann M. Veneman, a former food-industry lobbyist. And the department’s response to the crisis — which amounted to consistently downplaying the threat and rejecting calls for more extensive testing — seemed driven by the industry’s agenda.

One amazing decision came in 2004, when a Kansas producer asked for permission to test its own cows, so that it could resume exports to Japan. You might have expected the Bush administration to applaud this example of self-regulation. But permission was denied, because other beef producers feared consumer demands that they follow suit...

Meanwhile, South Koreans are rioting rather than accept American beef imports.

Thank you South Korean rioters!

Don't trust us. Really. Resist. Push for real reform of America's food safety regulation.

We push China to reform their drug and manufacturing standards. South Korea pushes us to improve our food regulation. I approve of both movements.

Restore the safety of American food. Oppose McCain.

The terrible fragility of American freedom - McCain would destroy this

By one lousy vote the Supreme Court preserved a habeas corpus -- a core element of the US Constitution and a fundamental defense against tyranny.

One vote.

Editorial - Editorial - On Guantanamo - Justice 5, Brutality 4 - Editorial - NYTimes.com

... It was disturbing that four justices dissented from this eminently reasonable decision. The lead dissent, by Chief Justice John Roberts, dismisses habeas as “most fundamentally a procedural right.” Chief Justice Roberts thinks the detainees receive such “generous” protections at their hearings that the majority should not have worried about whether they had habeas rights.

There is an enormous gulf between the substance and tone of the majority opinion, with its rich appreciation of the liberties that the founders wrote into the Constitution, and the what-is-all-the-fuss-about dissent. It is sobering to think that habeas hangs by a single vote in the Supreme Court of the United States — a reminder that the composition of the court could depend on the outcome of this year’s presidential election. The ruling is a major victory for civil liberties — but a timely reminder of how fragile they are...

If McCain wins the next such vote would be Brutality 5, Justice 4.

Stop McCain.

Vote Obama.

The end of Moore’s Law and the future of Dell

I can’t remember when the main feature of a major update was that it was significantly faster on current hardware:

Apple Gives Developers Safari 4 Preview | World of Apple

…Safari 4 currently has very few new features but is significantly quicker compared to Safari 3.1…

I have spent the last twenty years with the near certainty that every new version of a software product would be slower than the previous version on current hardware. [1] This drove hardware sales.

It’s not just Safari. Firefox 3 is faster than Firefox 2. The primary feature of OS X 10.6 (Snow Leopard) is that it’s faster on existing CPUs and GPUs.

An era has passed without remark. Hardware is getting faster, but the speed comes with power demands, heat production, and programming complexity. The cost of developing software is not falling, so there’s a desire to use common tools and technologies across multiple emerging platforms. That means performance on the lowest common denominator, whether that’s an ultra-cheap laptop [2] or an iPhone.

So if Moore’s Law is going the way of cheap sweet crude, should we expect our current hardware to last much longer than anticipated? What will that do to hardware sales for companies that don’t tie their software to their hardware, or their hardware/software to a recurring services-driven revenue stream?

Bad time to be working for Dell.

[1] Slight exception for OS X 10.1 and 10.2, but there were extenuating circumstances.)

[2] I remember when calculators went from $450 each to free. There’s no fundamental reason the same thing can’t happen to the ultra-cheap laptop.

The Empire Strikes Back: complexity, mobile phone plans, and Apple defeated

I tried to parse my AT&T non-iPhone cell phone bill this morning.

I needed more coffee. I couldn’t do it.

Yes, the bill was confounded by switching the primary phone, but there’s a very definite pattern here.

Since we switched from Sprint to AT&T for the love of the iPhone we’ve seen our bills go up by about 25% for comparable coverage – and lower quality.

We’re not the only folks to notice this …

iPhone Plan Compared » a gthing science project

The breakdown:
Voice Plan - $40/mo for 450 voice minutes
Data Plan - $30/mo for unlimited 3G Data

So at minimum, you’re paying $70/mo. This probably won’t even satisfy most users who use more than 450 minutes a month. The next plan up is a $20 jump so you’re now paying $90/mo.

Yes, while every other piece of technology gets cheaper every day, somehow cell phone plans just keep getting more and more expensive.

Let’s compare this to Sprint’s offering:

The Sprint SERO plan (which anyone can get by going to a Sprint store and retrieving an employee’s phone number from their business card) is like this:

Voice Plan - $30/mo for 500 Minutes
Data Plan - included/ Unlimited
Text Messaging - included/Unlimited

So $30 on Sprint or $70 on AT&T (and keep in mind AT&T isn’t even throwing in unlimited free texting).

Ok, so this SERO plan scam involves a wee bit of fraud, but we noticed something similar with no ethical dodges.

But that’s not what I find intriguing here.

The interesting bit is using complexity as a weapon. It’s a legal dodge, brilliantly executed by cellular companies and perfected by AT&T. Plan comparison is pretty much impossible, and you won’t know the real price until the 3rd or 4th statement. The scheme worked for AT&T; despite lower costs and better, though not great, service, Sprint is bleeding customers and AT&T shares are rising.

Sprint is no angel of course. They’ve been sued for their deceptive contract swap practices. They haven’t been as clever as AT&T, however, at using the complexity weapon.

It’s not just Sprint that has fallen to the Empire.

Apple’s original iPhone plan was a blessed ray of light in the darkness. Crystal clear pricing, flat data services – water to a thirsty man.

No more. Now plans are through AT&T. The Empire has struck back. Apple has been, for now, defeated.

Ahh, but Apple is no angel either! They increase the cost of the iPhone, while advertising "price cuts". They use the complexity of cell phone pricing plans to deceive the naive and the overwhelmed.

Our society has to figure out how manage the complexity demon. It will take one heck of a consumer revolt to put it down.

Maybe an Obama victory will give us the energy to fight back …

Update 5/10/08: There is a precedent, though it's only partially encouraging. At one time home sales were encumbered with similarly incomprehensible contracts. This led to requirements to provide total cost estimates. So the contracts are still complex, but at least there are fewer shocks.

Update 6/11/08: In comments Sam points out that Sprint is "in" on the SERO gimmick, so it's not as shady as I made it sound. He also recommends 2600 The Hacker Quarterly as a weapon against the vile trickery of the Empire. I believe he's referring to Gaming AT&T Mobility. The journal is paper only (interesting topic worthy of comment) so I'll have to see if a local library has a copy.

Update 6/11/08b: Return of the Jedi? Don Reisinger speculates that this is stage of one AT&T/Apple divorce proceedings. Now that would be sweet ...

Update 6/12/08: Great comment here - complexity as a strategic tool in other settings.

Update 6/15/08: Ars tries to compare the iPhone cost to other 3G phones. Superficially it's comparable, but read the comments. Sprint (SERO, as above) and others offer many complex and "secret" options with deep discounts. So the iPhone list price is comparable to other 3G phones and services, but their prices may be deeply discounted.

Why Snow Leopard? It’s the cores.

John Markoff, who has special access to Jobs, says Snow Leopard is about new approaches to parallel programming and GPU use. The “breakthrough” is to be powered by newly acquired PA Semi’s Grand Central technology.

Somewhat coincidentally Coding Horror (Jeff Atwood) writes today (quoting Tim Bray):

… Tim has addressed both of those criticisms and rebooted with The Wide Finder 2 Project. It's bigger, badder, and brawnier, but the goal remains the same:

The problem is that lots of simple basic data-processing operations, in my case a simple Ruby script, run like crap on modern many-core processors. Since the whole world is heading in the slower/many-core direction, this is an unsatisfactory situation.

If you look at the results from last time, it’s obvious that there are solutions, but the ones we've seen so far impose an awful complexity cost on the programmer. The holy grail would be something that maximizes ratio of performance increase per core over programmer effort. My view: Anything that requires more than twice as much source code to take advantage of many-core is highly suspect.

Apple is attacking the enterprise market – with renewed confidence. A major improvement in the ability to leverage multi-core CPUs and GPU would justify that confidence.

I wonder how completely this has been factored into Apple’s share price.

About the solar heating meme

There's an increasingly popular GOP meme going round. The idea is that the earth is warming primarily because of increased solar radiation.

A few years back the same people said the earth isn't warming at all, and if Minnesota has another cool winter I'll be hearing that one again.

This is the intellectual equivalent of the bipartisan, but mostly left wing, conviction that vaccines cause autism. A plausible hypothesis, worthy of investigation, that persists when it fails our best available tests.

The solar forcing meme isn't as discredited yet as the vaccine/autism link, but my best science sources have it 1 foot underground.

These memes persist because they feed various emotional needs. In the case of solar radiative warming some of the more naive proponents also imagine their belief will decrease the urgency of CO2 reduction, but that's clearly illogical. If the sun were really adding to man-made warming our need to reduce CO2 emissions would be even more desperate.

So where does GOP talk radio get its ideas? From Bruce West, for one ...

Army Climate Skeptic: Global Warming is Man-Made | Danger Room from Wired.com

...Global warming is real, and at least partially man-made, according to controversial Army scientist Dr. Bruce West. Greenhouse gases have contributed to rising temperatures by as much as 70 percent, he said during a conference call with bloggers, arranged by the military.

For several years, West, the chief scientist of the Army Research Office's mathematical and information science directorate and an adjunct professor at Duke University, has been touting the Sun's effects on climate change -- and warning that the 'anthropogenic contribution to global warming' has been 'significantly over-estimated' by the the majority of the scientific community....

I'm an adjunct professor too. That's the academic equivalent of the mail-order doctor. It's silly to see someone using it as a credential.

Hobbyist sociologists will note several things here:

1. The military arranged a conference call with bloggers.
2. West is an IT manager, but he's talking about climate. He might as well talk about vaccines.
3. Right wing talk radio loves this stuff.
4. IT people have a lot of conviction about their amateur science efforts. Note I'm an IT person, basically. I have the same disease.
   
5. Despite all that, he's saying warming is 70% due to man-made CO2 emissions ...
   

As science it's pretty weak, but as culture it's interesting.

Incidentally, the sharp rise in gas price is a serious threat. It's making coal and other high CO2 fuels incredibly attractive.

(BTW, even though the GOP war on science is particularly aggressive, the left has its issues too.)

Quantum Computing: the lecture notes

From the professor (Scott Aaronson of Shtetl Optimized) who gave us his lectures on theoretical computer science, we now have PHYS771 Quantum Computing Since Democritus. Or at least, as of today, lectures 1-13.

We eagerly await 14-21, including "Free Will" (I really want that one) and "Cosmology and Complexity".

iPhone prices go up by $360 over two years

Great coverage from the NYT tech blog. The price of the iPhone didn’t decrease by $200. It went up by at least $120 a year …

The Cost of the iPhone: More Per Month for Data - Bits - Technology - New York Times Blog

The biggest news from Apple is what Steve Jobs didn’t say: It has completely changed the basis of its deals with AT&T and other wireless carriers.

According to a press release from AT&T, the carrier will no longer give a portion of monthly usage fees to Apple. Instead carriers will pay Apple a subsidy for each phone sold, in order to bring the price from $399 down to $199 for the 8 Gigabyte model. The company did not specify the amount of the subsidy. Subsidies of $200 to $300 are common in the industry.

What is more, consumers will now pay $30 a month for unlimited data service from AT&T, compared to $20 under the plan introduced last year. So even though the phone will now cost $200, consumers will be out more cash at the end of a two-year contract compared to the previous deal.

Of course, that includes faster 3G data service, so the price increase may be worth it. But we should call it an iPhone price increase, not a cut.

Unlimited data service for business users will cost $45 a month…

… For Apple, this move to getting all its money up front has several advantages. By using the same economic model as every other cell phone maker, it makes it easier to bring the phone to carriers in every corner of the world.

It also should help insulate Apple from the cost of people who buy iPhones and unlock them to use on carriers that don’t pay Apple the monthly fee. Now Apple will get its money, say $500, up front and it no longer has to police what people do with them. Whether Apple will still keep penalizing users who unlock their phones is one of the many questions that remain to be answered.

I preferred the clarity of paying for hardware and data services separately.

On the plus side this makes it easier to replace your iPhone with every contract termination.

On the minus side when you have to replace a lost or broken iPhone you’ll be paying out at least $500 (as is true for all other cell phones in this class).

I wonder if the new pricing model will make it easier to sell the iPhone into corporate accounts ...

Update 6/12/08: It gets worse (emphases mine)

Tidbits: $160 more expensive ...

...SMS messages are no longer included in the data plan either, so you'll have to pay extra for them. Previously, the data plan included 200 SMS messages per month. AT&T's Messaging 200 plan, which includes 200 SMS messages, costs $5 per month, so it would seem likely that the iPhone 3G's SMS plan would be similar...

... What does bother me about all this is how both Apple and AT&T are making a big deal about the iPhone 3G being cheaper, Apple with the "Half the price" tag line and AT&T with its "$199 Starting Price Significantly Expands Mass Market Appeal" line in the press release, along with the bare-faced statement that lowering the initial price will "accelerate subscriber volumes." That initial purchase will indeed be cheaper, but anyone who doesn't take the higher monthly fees into account is either being deceived or is just plain stupid. I know it's standard marketing practice to take advantage of the math-challenged with tricks like this, but it still feels underhanded.

More on using complexity as a weapon.

Update 7/3/08: Current AT&T customers don't get the $200 discount on new phones. So for a current AT&T customer, the two year cost of a 16GB iPhone hasn't increased by $160, it's increased by $360.

The end of Apple’s surprises

Everything about the Apple keynote address was exposed ahead of time – except that there’s no memory boost and the release is even more delayed than expected …

The Unofficial Apple Weblog (TUAW)

…iPhone 3G will start $199 for an 8GB model. The 16GB model will sell for $299, and is available in a black or white backing. It will be available in all countries starting July 11…

As Andrew says, it’s tough to keep secrets these days.

So why the longer than expected release time and the disappointing capacity?

Component shortages?

So will we see a 32GB version in a few months, once the component shortages go away?

Ahh well, I’ll order the 16GB model as soon as the online ordering is available.

Gordon’s WWDC prediction

Everyone needs one …

Gordon's Tech: An offbeat Apple keynote prediction

…Apple has an interest in an always connected touchscreen slate device that will do video display and conferencing, does audio and has a data-revenue stream associated with it.

So Apple will do a touchscreen slate device with a subsidized price, AT&T 3G data services, a required subscription model including the dotMac successor, and books through the (to be rebranded) iTunes store in partnership with Google and Barnes and Noble….

GPS and a pony too.

Minnesota naturopaths can order MRIs

Michael Paymar is our state representative. I want to know how he voted on this bill. Note, this was a DFL bill!

A bitter fight over who can be called 'doctor'

It took 99 years, but Minnesota has finally given official recognition to the practice of naturopathic medicine, which relies on the body's powers to heal itself.

Under a new state law, naturopaths -- who use everything from herbal remedies to biofeedback -- will be allowed to register with the state and call themselves doctors without fear of running afoul of the medical establishment.

... "I didn't realize how much of an issue it was going to be," said Rep. Neva Walker, DFL-Minneapolis, who championed the bill for years before it finally passed and was signed into law in May. "[I] didn't realize somebody who had supported all forms of alternative healing for years was going to be an enemy."

It allows those who qualify to use the title "naturopathic doctor" and expand their "scope of practice" to include such things as ordering blood tests and MRIs, and admitting patients to hospitals....

...The Minnesota Medical Association (MMA), representing conventional doctors, objected to allowing naturopaths to prescribe drugs and perform minor surgery. When those items were dropped, the MMA withdrew its opposition.

So, if a naturopath orders an MRI, do payors have to pay for it?

I'll ask Mike Paymar that question.

In the meantime the DFL dominated Minnesota legislature has decided that they want to continue to limit medical decision making to "professionals". What's new is that they've decided that medical science is no longer the basis for measuring professional expertise. Social judgment alone is the new criteria.

It's the same sort of reasoning that brings creationism into science classes. People who believe solar variation explains most climate change fall into this category. We're used to this, it's a familiar fight. I don't think there is any alternative to science for making judgments about the natural world, but I accept most of society doesn't agree with me.

So I object to the decision on the basis of using social fashion as the basis for measuring expertise, but that's not my primary objection.

My real problem with this bill is that it doesn't go far enough.

If you abandon science as the basis for expertise, then you shouldn't stop with naturopaths. Certainly nurses should be included, but also teachers, chiropractors, shamans, plumbers, lawyers, accountants, radiology technicians, cab drivers, flight attendants, mothers, fathers and, heck, children too.

Nor should the boundary be artificially set at test ordering. An MRI is not a small procedure, nor necessarily benign.

Let us open up all of medicine and surgery. If Naturopaths are ordering MRIs, then carpenters should be doing hip replacements. If you've every seen a 110 lb orthopedic surgeon rear back to slam the silver hammer down, you'd appreciate the role a good carpenter can play.

Seriously.

If you abandon science as a measure for expertise, then there are no more boundaries. I expect the courts will, in time, agree with me.

Payors and insurance companies will love this. Plumbers are not only much cheaper than neurosurgeons, the follow-up care will also be much shorter and less costly.

Caveat emptor.

Update 6/14/08: Representative Michael Paymar responded promptly by mail. He's guilty - he vote for this sucker. To his credit he doesn't mince words. He's a believer, Mike Paymar is not a rationalist. The Minnesota Medical Association approved the bill, so he felt he had cover to proceed.

Shame on them too.

Sigh.

Paymar is a very good representative, he wins this district by huge margins, and it's not like I'm going to vote for anyone else. On the other hand, it will be much harder now to send him our yearly campaign donations.