A world without AIDS?

I was in medical school when we learned of Haitian men and San Francisco gay men with strange skin lesions and odd pneumonias.

We learned a lot very quickly, but none of it was very good. By the late 1980s to early 1990s many people, myself included, expected vast numbers of deaths in Africa.

Over the past decade though, the tide has slowly turned, until today I read ...

BBC NEWS | Many more receiving HIV therapy

... Testing is the gateway to treatment, and in many areas facilities providing this service increased by about 35%, noted the Towards Universal Access report which looked at 158 countries.

'An Aids free generation is no longer an impossibility - the elimination of vertical transmission is in sight,' said Jimmy Kolker, head of the HIV/Aids division at UNICEF....

Recent glimmers of hope on immunization, and confirmation of the protective effects of circumcision must also be contributing to this new optimism. Perversely, the impending extinction of our fellow primates will also reduce exposure to HIV reservoirs.

Great credit must go to all of those, African and otherwise, who fought for the widespread dissemination of treatment to impoverished nations against great skepticism about its efficacy and the fears of drug manufacturers.

This is not, of course, the same as curing AIDS. This is about preventing transmission of the virus within the human population, until transmission is so rare that the disease is effectively eliminated.

I expect I'll live to see it happen.

iPhone 2014 – what will it be like?

Brinna’s brother has an mobile, so she wants her iPhone now. If we stick with the Junior High rule, that means 2014.

So what will the iPhone of 2014 be like? Will it vote?

I bet it will be a lot like the iPhone of 2009. Mostly better, in some ways worse. That’s the way things usually go after the first mad sprint of a real breakthrough.

MacOS Classic had some serious issues (esp post-multifinder with stability and TCP/IP support), but eighteen years later OS X is not an immensely better OS. It’s mostly better, but there have been significant regressions too. The real shocker was the transition from the command line to the very first Mac.

Equally dramatically, digital cameras went from near worthless to 5 megapixel SLRs in just a few years. Since then, however, progress has been gradual.

So it’s reasonable to expect the iPhone-equivalents of 2014 to follow the same incremental path.

We will see more speech UI development and some workable speech-to-text input. We will probably see better support of external displays, and we may even see a 1992-PalmOS-style external keyboard. Laptops will be squeezed between netbooks and iPhone-equivalents. Augmented reality apps will be mainstream, and we’ll have more bandwidth.

Otherwise, pretty much what we have now.

Which is really an amazing statement about what Apple has done to the mobile industry.

When OS X truly sucks: screen sharing

I tried OS X screen sharing again today.

I do this every few months, to remind myself how badly OS X screen sharing sucks.

Yeah, I'm on Leopard, but from all I read Snow Leopard takes OS X remote control from extremely lousy to really lousy.

It's painful for a Mac user to remember that Microsoft Remote Desktop Services (similar to Citrix remote desktop) is about ten years old.

Microsoft (Citrix?) used to have some serious skills.

Update: Speaking of Apple senescence, I remember when the OS could 'remember' the location of files stored on a server and mount the server on demand. Now if I click a shortcut to a network folder I get "A volume failed to mount". Once upon a time I'd get a login.

That capability was lost in the last few years of OS X development, one of several dumbing-down changes to the OS.

Google Apps - vote for your favorite feature

Apple's problem is that Steve Jobs decides what we need. Microsoft's problem is that it should have been split into several competing companies ten years ago. Google's problem is that they combine Attention Deficit Disorder with a mystical belief in the power of the metamind.

The best we poor geeks can do is mix and match and try to keep our data liberated.

With Apple bitching on Discussion Groups can sometimes help -- the secret is to get a long thread going.

With Google you can look for one of their periodic attempts to survey their customer base, such as this suggest a feature for Google Apps poll. Give it a try! Note, however, you can't vote to "Burn Google Sites to the Ground and Start Over".

And Microsoft? Despair is recommended.

Update: Some related posts

• I, Cringely - The People’s Republic of Google
• Blodget on GmailLand: The Threading model alone condemns Google
• Stross on Microsoft and Apple

In Our Time - The Weak Shall Inherit the Earth

In the 2003 In Our Time explored the cultural history of war: BBC - Radio 4 - The Art of War.

During the programme, one of the guests mentions Karl Pearson an early 20th century social Darwinist and "Professor of Eugenics" [1]. Pearson praised war as the engine of racial fitness and national progress. If not for war, it was said in Pearson's time, "the weak shall inherit the earth" [2].

These memes are with us still, though in the west they are rarely explicit.

[1] Those of us who did med school stats may remember the "Pearson distribution". Same guy.

[2] It's not clear from the discussion if the phrase came from Pearson, but I suspect it was a common usage of the time. Not for the first time I wish there were more IOT transcripts. The "After Our Time" wiki has @50 IOT transcripts, but the blog and wiki was only active for a few months in 2007. Among those few transcripts, incidentally, are early programmes that have been lost, including one featuring Stephen Jay Gould.

Update Feb 17, 2010: The Lost Episodes are now online.

The problem with software (an ongoing series)

How’s this …

We know how to make quite good applications with small teams and 3-7 year lifespans.

We don’t know how to cost-effectively make equally good applications with large teams and 10-30 year lifespans. The costs rise as some power function of lifespan and team size.

We may need different corporate structures to create these applications.

Mysteries of modern capitalism: The missing iPhone 2.5 mm headset adapter

The B000YE54F8 2.5mm to 3.5mm Stereo Audio Headset Adapter for Apple iPhone is a piece of .99 cent junk. I know it’s junk, because the identical pair I bought a year ago have both broken (APLIPHONEHFA2) and there’s no reputable reseller of any variant of these devices.

I also know that before they came apart, my adapters worked.

Junk this is, but it’s also #14 in its Amazon sales category: Cell Phones & Service > Accessories > Data & Connectivity > Data Cables.

This is curious.

There’s clearly a lot of demand for a product that allows one to use an older high-quality headset (2.5 mm) with an iPhone (3.5 mm). Lots of people who’ve spent $50 or more on headsets are taking a flyer on buying this, and that market is not going away. (Really, Bluetooth sucks. And even if it didn’t, why spend $100 for a decent Bluetooth headset when you already own a great high end headset that doesn’t burden the iPhone’s hurtin’ battery?)

So why doesn’t a company like Griffin sell a decent adapter for, say, $20 for a pair? I suspect good ones would cost $2 to make and package, so we’re talking a pretty sweet profit margin. It’s not like Griffin has a line of Bluetooth headsets they need to protect.

That’s the mystery.

Of course I have a theory.

I suspect Apple has a patent on the layout of the iPhone’s headset connector [1]. The license fees are probably wicked, or even unavailable. Apple does sell Bluetooth headsets. The cheapo vendors are dodging the licensing fees, and Apple can’t be bothered to go after them.

Any other theories?

[1] Yes, I also used to think these layouts followed some kind of standard. That was before I experimented with various AV connectors. If there is any kind of standard manufacturers don’t follow it.

Avoid Alzheimer's - hold the Provigil?

I've a hunch that this is true - lack of sleep linked to Alzheimer's.

In the past few years there's been a lot of interest in the misuse of modafinil (Provigil). It's being used to extend waking hours rather than to treat narcolepsy.

Maybe this isn't the smartest move ...

Speaking of which, I should go to bed now.

iTunes U - the Singularity is behind us

Despite my IOT habit, I've only today rediscovered iTunes U in iTunes 9...

This still brings tears to my eyes. As I (incorrectly - Bill Gates Sr only did the foreword) wrote in 2006 about an early casualty of tech churn ...

The quiet demise of the CD

... I remember reading the book written by Bill Gate's father (yes, his father) called 'The New Papyrus'. It was all about the how the data CD would revolutionize the world. This was before the net became public. I was amazed by the CD back then, and I wrote a letter to a Canadian development organization on how it could dramatically change the delivery of knowledge to what was then called the 'third world'...

iTunes U, Aaronson’s MIT lectures on theoretical computer science, MIT OpenCourseWare, OpenAccess journals and the BBC’s In Our Time are now freely available to a good portion of the world. Even in poor nations, they are likely accessible in many universities.

I beat on Apple and Google all the time, but, really, the iPhone and iTunes U would stun a geek of 1986. We entropics do not appreciate how far we have traveled.

Gawande and NEJM cost of care roundtable

I really hope my man Obama (apologies for the familiarity, but I'll never again see a President I like so much) gets his health care bill.

At best, however, it will only be the start of the journey. We haven't even begun to talk seriously about health care costs, and about getting the best possible care that we can afford to provide every American.

We'd be better off if the GOP weren't a smoldering wreck of a party; even the best government is no substitute for well managed markets. (Obviously the problem with unmanaged health care markets is the ice floe.)

Heck, even 16 years ago we had far more intelligent discussions about health care costs and systems than we're having now. Maybe we're getting senile, or maybe we're seeing the side-effects of relative media impoverishment.

Still, even among the senile, there are often moments of relatively clarity. The inimitable Gawande, mutant time traveler extraordinaire, is at it again in a NEJM roundtable discussion.

Briefly, Gawande and his fellow gurus are with me. We need to deal with costs, but Americans are completely unable to even begin an intelligent discussion -- and the Gaia-infected GOP is too devoted to ending human civilization to make any kind of contribution.

So we do coverage now, and hope we come up with a way to slow the progression of Alzheimer's Disease. That would both lower health care costs and contribute to a more intelligent discussion in 2014.

Fear the Cloud - Blogger's unfixed 5000 post limit

Today I discovered that several hundred early posts in this blog were no longer searchable or editable. I'm not the only victim of this hole in the Cloud ...

Gordon's Tech: Blogger is broken - the undocumented 5000 post limit

Blogger has an undocumented 5,000 post limit. At least one of my blogs is well past that limit. Using the blogger dashboard I am unable to search for, view, or edit about 400 posts written in 2003 and 2004.

The bug was recognized in July 22nd 2009. At that time Google was 'working on a fix'.

It's almost October, so they may not be working terribly hard...

Blogger is not a first tier Google product like Search or Maps, but it's no side-project to be casually forgotten. So what conclusion should we draw from an unfixed bug like this one?

Fear the Cloud. (See also - Gmail outages)

Update: This bug led me to review my July and August 2003 posts. In those days this was primarily a tech notes blog, but by Sept I was putting that material into a blog that later became tech.kateva.org. I scanned a mix of old tech posts and the kind of material found now in notes.kateva.org.

I'm still annoyed at Google's sullenly unfixed bug, but I did enjoy reviewing the old material. I back-linked from some newer posts to 2003 versions of the same thing ...

Gift exchanges and lawn mower tips

I am fond of gift trades.

Gregies small engine repair is about a mile from my home. It's been there for about 40 years. The owner has candy for kids and treats for dogs.

When the owner repaired my mower two years ago, he told me it was pretty crummy. Even so he didn't want me to throw it out. I think for him engines are personal.

When I got tired of my lousy mower I went to him for a new one. I was too late though, winter is coming and he's done restocking mowers. He told me where to buy a new one.

Before I left, I gave him my old mower. It would cost me money to dispose of, and he wanted it. I didn't ask for money.

In return he gave me advice. He taught me how to adjust the strike plate in my old push mower, and now, for the first time I can remember, it seems to work. He told me to not to use my new mower on steep ground for more than about 20-30 seconds, because in a modern 4 cylinder engine the oil won't circulate well enough. [1]

He also, indirectly, explained why push mowers really can't really come back [2].

I appreciate these gift exchanges. They are one reason I rarely sell used items -- I prefer to give them away.

[1] In older 2 cylinder models the oil is mixed with gas, they don't have this weakness. There's more Free Advice on his web site. Good luck finding methanol-free gas in Minnesota.

[2] The blades must be periodically sharpened, and it is slow, tedious work. In a world where labor is costly they're too expensive to maintain. Push mowers can only really return if the sharpening problem is solved. (Significant money may await those who solve the sharpening problem.)

Beware the traps of the Software World

I remember the World before I walked in Software.

So I know Something that is True and Important (STI). Those who were born to Software know it in their bones, but they don't know to speak it. Only we between worlds can tell these terrible secrets.

Gather close dear reader; I would have done well to understand this some years ago.

The STI is that that the Software World is kin to the Badlands of South Dakota.

When you Walk in Software you walk among mazes and valleys and cliffs. Promising paths end in sharp drops and hard walls.

Developers build things that seem right, until you walk off the end of the metaphor. The problem is more than bugs and complexity, it is something innate to imagination made digital.

In the physical world, we don't use spend months using a drill, then discover that everything we've build with it must be abandoned. In the world of Software tools, that can happen. We can use software to store knowledge and meaning, then lose all the knowledge when the software stops working without replacement.

In the physical world it may be impossible to find a good toaster, but it's easy to figure out that a new toaster is no good. In the Software world you can invest months in learning a new tool before you find the fatal flaw. Five years ago I though Apple would enable merging of iPhoto Libraries (sorry, six years ago), but their marketing team decided that was an Aperture feature, not an iPhoto feature. [1]

In the physical world, it doesn't take five years to realize that your car isn't very good.

Perhaps, to a creature of Software, the physical world would seem tricksy. For a creature that's evolved to dirt and blood, however, the Software World is more treacherous -- even if it doesn't rip limbs off as well as a chainsaw might.

In the world of Software, explorers pay a high price. We Pioneers need to be far more careful about what tools and solutions we use, and we need find new ways to navigate this space.

We must train Scouts and Pioneers who will return from the badlands to warn all of the horrors of Sharepoint and Microsoft Word ...

[1] Yes, I know about the heroic 3rd party merge efforts of iPhoto Library Manager.

Health care reform – the reality problem

The problem, at long last, is becoming hard to avoid.

If everyone buys insurance, then our current health care system can provide “Lexus” care for a cost of about $13-15K for a family of 3-4 persons.

That’s the kind of care that my family enjoys. It’s not bad, really.

The problem, of course, is that Americans expect a bill more like $6-8K/year. We can’t do that in America. If we were to deliver health services at this price point, they’d be “Manhattan subway” services. An excellent form of transportation, but loud, smelly and lacking plush carpets.

So we have a reality problem.

Update 9/16/09: Economix has a relevant post. The $13-15K number turns out match a Kaiser study.

The roots of Klan 2.0 and 912 – A justified fear of change

The Klan, as I recall, had two major incarnations. The first was as a successful terrorist movement following the American Civil War. Klan 2.0, in the 1920s, was a reaction to the extraordinary cultural transitions of the early 20th century.

I’ve speculated that the birthers, baggers and deathers are also reacting to an increasingly incomprehensible world. Turns out the Senate minority leader might agree with me ..

Maureen Dowd - Rapping Joe’s Knuckles - NYTimes.com

… as the minority leader, John Boehner, put it, are “scared to death that the country that they grew up in is not going to be the country that their kids and grandkids grew up in”…

I say might because I can’t find Dowd’s version of Boehner’s words anywhere else. Boehner’s quote appears with intriguingly different wording in a GOP blog:

"...when I talk to people at these rallies, it was pretty clear these people are scared to death," Boehner said. "And they’re scared to death about the future for their kids and their grandkids and the facts that the American dream may not be alive for their kids and grandkids."

and in a CQ Politics transcript

“George, when I talk to people at these rallies, it was pretty clear people are scared to death. And they’re scared to death about the future for their kids and their grandkids, and the facts that the American dream may not be alive for their kids and grandkids. That’s what really scares them.”

So what did Boehner really say? Both, one, or neither? Anyone know?

The common thread, at the least, is fear. These middle class white men fear that (their) America is changing, and that their male children face a bleak future.

They are right to be afraid. Testosterone is no longer helpful in the vast majority of well paying corporate jobs or in advanced education. The advantages of melanin depletion are still strong, but this recessive trait will continue its secular decline. Corporate employment requires a level of disruptive interpersonal tolerance that is difficult for this group. Globalized competition is eliminating employment options for all but the genetically gifted – and this group is not gifted.

They are wrong, of course, to think that they can stop this change. Or at least, to think they can stop it without turning American in a 21st century version of 1960s India – isolated, impoverished and frozen in time.

Sadly, like a fearful dog, they are biting the hand of the man most likely to help them – the community organizer turned President. Their fear, and their limited understanding, has turned them into pawns of fame seekers and power seekers alike.

Managing the irrational, yet entirely correct, fears of the baggers and the 912 Project is a great challenge for American politics. If we can’t figure out a way to ease their fears, we may yet live through the equivalent of Klan 3.0.

At least I’m old enough to have enjoyed the golden ‘90s! The 21st century has been tough for America, and it’s not going to get better soon.

Update 9/19/09: Frank Rich has an editorial with a related but distinct perspective.