Deepwater Horizon - what Obama should understand

I didn't think I had much to say about the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. My one insight was that Google could, as a public service, assemble a team to deploy disaster-specific search engines. Google librarians and researchers are well suited to continuously enhance a custom search engine that will facilitate research and discovery at the time of catastrophe. These future disaster search tools would be paired with custom Google Maps services.

I'm surprised Google hasn't done this yet. I hope they'll do it for all our many disasters to come.

That was my one insight -- until tonight. Now I have something to say to my (much appreciated) President.

I got the idea when Emily compared my personal stories of corporate euphemisms to BP's spin. In a forehead smacking moment I realized BP is probably no more or less clever than the vast publicly traded company I work for. That means that Obama's team is dealing with EVPs -- people whose great skill is the ability to thrive in the bowels of a typically dysfunctional publicly traded company. They can tell a good story, but they really don't know what's going on and they don't know they don't know.

There are likely engineers in BP who do know what's going on, but they've been locked away in dark rooms and surrounded by corporate security. They'll never be allowed contact with the outside world. Most of them aren't comfortable in that role anyway.

Too bad. Team Obama has to track these people down. They won't be VPs or EVPs. They're probably not even managers. They're individual contributors who've been at BP for ten years or more. They know what's going on. It might take the NSA and the CIA to track these people down, but it has to be done. They have to be dragged kicking and screaming from the bowels of BP. In softly lit rooms they can be slipped a few million dollars -- since once they talk they'll never work in the industry again. Then ply them with beer until they open up.

Take notes.

Safari Reader is sweet - my brain on computers

I visited this breathless NYT business article and clicked the Safari 5 "Reader" button ...

Your Brain on Computers - Attached to Technology and Paying a Price - NYTimes.com

Sweet. Great font, highly readable, multiple pages in one place. Much faster to read. No ads.

My brain on computers is faster than ever. (No comment on the article, it's not worth the bother.)

Update 6/9/10: Tyler Cowen has expressed my opinions on the NYT computer-brain article.

To be sure, I expect our tools (books, clocks, measurement devices) alter our brains and minds. Brains are what allow long lived organisms to adapt to rapidly changing environments, and computation is increasingly our environment. So we expect our brains to be altered. We also expect that in a new environment formerly maladaptive traits may become adaptive, and adaptive traits may become maladaptive. That's 2nd tier natural selection in action.

I'm unimpressed, however, with the quality of the research and even less impressed with the quality of the discussions.

I, Robot. The alternative to Foxconn.

Foxconn, a Taiwanese corporation, is giving its Chinese (mainland) workers 30% pay raises and it wants governments to take over its company towns (presumably they'll pay the rent?).

Sounds good. Some device prices will rise, some margins will be squeezed, Foxconn employees will have more disposable income.

Or maybe not ...

... The chairman of Foxconn, Terry Gou, told the Taipei shareholders’ meeting that the company was looking to shift some unspecified production from China to automated plants in Taiwan, Reuters reported..

The alternative to the Foxconn employee is the robot. Every year the robot gets cheaper. Every year Foxconn employees become more expensive.

Long ago, when China was still emerging from Emperor Mao, a Chinese-Canadian friend and I debated the future of China. He argued all manufacturing would go to China (where he lives now). I agreed, but then I said it would go to the robots.

It's going to go to the robots.

We are in the world of white water economics. In ten years the Great Recession may be remembered largely as the time we went over the waterfall ...

AT&T's new data plan - the bright side

As expected, AT&T has dropped their unlimited data plan. I love the Orwellian spin - "to Make Mobile Internet More Affordable to More People".

This appears to apply to all phones, not just the iPad/iPhone. They have also, as expected, introduced a tethering option. The tethering option is very limited however; it appears to have a 2GB limit.

So in the old days $30 got you unlimited data, but now $45 gets you data, tethering and a 2GB limit. Forget watching YouTube on the AT&T network.

There's no word yet on whether Apple will introduce some smart metering features to help track usage with OS 4. I hope they will. AT&T will send out text message notifications.

Everything about this announcement is exactly as expected -- including the fairly onerous pricing with tethering (I'd have been very impressed if they'd gone to tiered data plans and made the tethering free -- it's just data. This is AT&T however.)

So what's the bright side?

AT&T has been selling capacity they didn't have. I'd love to see a zillion dollar fraud prosecution. Now, finally, that stops. They will be aligning their pricing with their network capacity. There's now hope, for the first time, that we'll get reasonable voice service on the iPhone.

It's also good that we have more price transparency -- we are more likely to get what we pay for, and see what it costs. If we don't like the price we can .... ummm ..... uhhhh .. stop watching videos on the AT&T network. (Note VOIP services use far less bandwidth than video. I wonder about dropping our family plan to the rock bottom minimum and using Skype to call Canada. I tried their online usage calculator, and, as expected, with no video use, I still need the $25 plan.)

Overall, this is good. Painful, but good. Now about my share of the class action lawsuit for AT&T's fraudulent overselling of their capacity ...

Update: AT&T's tethering pricing is pretty nasty, but there's some good news on pricing details that resemble the iPad 3G plan:

... AT&T has also overhauled their data overage structure, giving DataPlus subscribers and additional 200MB as needed for $15, while DataPro users get extra data at $10 a gigabyte... if you’re either over-using or under-using your plan, AT&T’s going to be extremely flexible about letting switch back and forth between DataPlus and DataPro. You can call and have your plan changed at the next billing cycle, have it prorated immediately, or - hold on to your seats - have the plan retroactively applied to the entire current billing cycle...

The $10/GB rate makes the tethering more practical. Definitely more complex, but I wouldn't be surprised if AT&T's accounting system can't support a finer grained process. If Apple bundles a good metering app with OS 4 this new plan would be an improvement for my family. (I wonder if Apple/AT&T will consider selling an iPhone without a data plan ...)

Also, there's rumor that AT&T has said that current users can keep unlimited data when they get a new phone and new contract. I find that hard to believe.

Update 6/10/2010: The new contracts come with a secret 8 month old catch. Ohhhh, AT&T is evil-incarnate.

Memphis mortgages, complexity attacks and long term consequences

Times are bad in the subprime mortgage neighborhoods of Memphis, home to recession wracked FedEx...

The black men and women interviewed by the NYT seem remarkably stoic about it all. Two aspects of one story caught my attention ...

... To turn into Tyrone Banks’s subdivision in Hickory Ridge is to find his dream in seeming bloom. Stone lions guard his door, the bushes are trimmed and a freshly waxed sport utility vehicle sits in his driveway.

For years, Mr. Banks was assiduous about paying down his debt: he stayed two months ahead on his mortgage, and he helped pay off his mother’s mortgage.

Two years ago, his doorbell rang, and two men from Wells Fargo offered to consolidate his consumer loans into a low-cost mortgage.

“I thought, ‘This is great! ’ ” Mr. Banks says. “When you have four kids, college expenses, you look for any savings.”

What those men did not tell Mr. Banks, he says (and Ms. Thomas, who studied his case, confirms), is that his new mortgage had an adjustable rate. When it reset last year, his payment jumped to $1,700 from $1,200.

Months later, he ruptured his Achilles tendon playing basketball*, hindering his work as a janitor. And he lost his job at FedEx. Now foreclosure looms....

Mr. Banks leveraged the real estate bubble to pay off the costs of the the higher education bubble. The real estate bubble burst, leaving him underwater. Now the higher education bubble is bursting, leaving him with high tuition loans for a product of declining value.

Harsh.

We might ask, however, how the heck Mr. Banks didn't realize he'd changed to an adjustable rate mortgage. I can't tell from the brief story, but I suspect that minor detail was omitted from the phone sales spiel. Later, when he signed the papers, he might have spotted it -- but by then he was well along the commitment path. It can be hard to back out then.

I'm betting he fell victim to a form of complexity attack, the same form of emergent fraud that defeated my family when assessing our health insurance options [2]. The resources of banks, mobile service providers and insurance companies ensure information asymmetry -- they can play the game much better than we can.

Complexity attacks have obvious direct costs to the "Marks" (which, in the GR, was most everyone). They also have less obvious long term effects that may be underappreciated.

Once buyers become aware of complexity attacks, they become far less trusting. Modern markets run on trust; when trust is lost markets suffer. Our bank recently hounded us to sign up for a lower fixed rate mortgage that should save us tens of thousands of dollars. As best we can tell this is motivated by a federal program; they need us in a bundle they can sell to the feds (we're "low risk"). It seems a no-brainer, but we delayed our decision because of deep distrust. Finally, when the Euro crisis dropped rates even further, we signed up [3]. We still wonder what the catch is.

The Great Recession will linger for a very long time. That is ... assuming it's really over ...

[1] If he was taking a quinolone at the time he might want to sign up with one of the class action suits.
[2] My brightness might be debatable, but I know some brilliant folk. None of the very smartest claim to understand our coprorate health insurance options.
[3] The bank wanted us to commit over the phone lest we lose the "incredibly low rates". We refused of course, which was easy since we know Greece isn't getting better any time soon. When we got the paper work it was remarkably clear and simple -- far more straightforward than the near-market-peak paperwork we completed when our home was rather more expensive than it is now.

Update 6/30/10: I wrote about our "no-brainer" refinance option. Even though it seemed simple, we were suspicious. Justifiably as it turned out. After our initial paperwork we received much more, then they bungled a prepayment of ours, then they stopped returning calls. Based on their recent share price, I'm guessing their coming apart. So we may still refinance, but probably with a different bank.

From the archives - Sanford Weill before and after the crash

Before the Great Recession, times were good for some. No, not like Clinton's glory days of 1995 or so -- those times were good for most everyone. From Bush's 2004 to 2007 the times were good for the very rich.

Back then The Economist was launching a "lifestyle magazine" (it failed) and William McGuire of UnitedHealth Group had just received a $125 million paycheck. In those days the NYT wrote a paeon to Citigroup's Sanford Weill (which I just found in my archives, hence this post). It makes quite interesting reading now (emphases mine). In those days Citi traded for $55 a share. In Jan 2010 it was $3 a share ...

The Richest of the Rich, Proud of a New Gilded Age - New York Times July 15, 2007

By LOUIS UCHITELLE

The tributes to Sanford I. Weill line the walls of the carpeted hallway that leads to his skyscraper office, with its panoramic view of Central Park. A dozen framed magazine covers, their colors as vivid as an Andy Warhol painting, are the most arresting. Each heralds Mr. Weill’s genius in assembling Citigroup into the most powerful financial institution since the House of Morgan a century ago.

His achievement required political clout, and that, too, is on display. Soon after he formed Citigroup, Congress repealed a Depression-era law that prohibited goliaths like the one Mr. Weill had just put together anyway, combining commercial and investment banking, insurance and stock brokerage operations. A trophy from the victory — a pen that President Bill Clinton used to sign the repeal — hangs, framed, near the magazine covers...

That repealed Depression-era law was Glass-Steagall. The law designed to prevent the crash of 2007 and the subsequent the Great Recession. To continue ...

These days, Mr. Weill and many of the nation’s very wealthy chief executives, entrepreneurs and financiers echo an earlier era — the Gilded Age before World War I — when powerful enterprises, dominated by men who grew immensely rich, ushered in the industrialization of the United States. The new titans often see themselves as pillars of a similarly prosperous and expansive age, one in which their successes and their philanthropy have made government less important than it once was.

“People can look at the last 25 years and say this is an incredibly unique period of time,” Mr. Weill said. “We didn’t rely on somebody else to build what we built, and we shouldn’t rely on somebody else to provide all the services our society needs.”

Cough. Yes, we bailed out Citigroup.

... Only twice before over the last century has 5 percent of the national income gone to families in the upper one-one-hundredth of a percent of the income distribution — currently, the almost 15,000 families with incomes of $9.5 million or more a year, according to an analysis of tax returns by the economists Emmanuel Saez at the University of California, Berkeley and Thomas Piketty at the Paris School of Economics.

Such concentration at the very top occurred in 1915 and 1916, as the Gilded Age was ending, and again briefly in the late 1920s, before the stock market crash. Now it is back, and Mr. Weill is prominent among the new titans. His net worth exceeds $1 billion, not counting the $500 million he says he has already given away, in the open-handed style of Andrew Carnegie and the other great philanthropists of the earlier age...

The NYT returned to Mr Weill after the Crash ...

Citi’s Creator, Sandy Weill, Alone With His Regrets - NYTimes.com Jan 2010

THIS is my final annual meeting as chairman,” says Sandy Weill, standing near the window of his office, peering at a grainy photograph of him and his wife on stage at Carnegie Hall more than three years ago. They are smiling broadly, and behind them is a packed house of cheering Citigroup shareholders. A huge banner dangling from the balcony reads “Thank You Sandy.”

On that day, April 18, 2006, Citi’s share price was $48.48. After studying the photo for a few moments, Mr. Weill says quietly, “I thought the company was impregnable.”...

... Over the last two years, Mr. Weill has watched Citi — a company he built brick by brick during the final act of a 50-year career — nearly fall apart. Although every taxpayer in the country has paid for Citi’s outsize mistakes, for Mr. Weill the bank’s myriad woes are a commentary on his life’s work.

.... Mr. Weill’s legacy has taken on a darker hue. Though he was once viewed as a brilliant dealmaker, some critics now cast him as the architect of a shoddily constructed, unmanageable financial supermarket whose troubles have sideswiped investors, employees and average citizens nationwide.

“The dream, the mirage has always been the global supermarket, but the reality is that it was a shopping mall,” says Chris Whalen, editor of The Institutional Risk Analyst, of Citi’s evolution over the last decade. “You can talk about synergies all day long. It never happened.”

Citi’s troubles are well chronicled: a failure to integrate its disparate parts worldwide or to keep tabs on risky investments and free-wheeling operations. These lapses led to billions of dollars in losses and multiple bailouts, and the government now owns a quarter of the company. Citi’s shares fell from a high of $55.12 in 2007 to about a dollar early last spring, and now trade at $3.31....

... Sitting in his office on the 46th floor of the General Motors building in Manhattan, he is surrounded by reminders of a lifetime on Wall Street. The space is breathtaking with floor-to-ceiling windows and views stretching out over Central Park. One wall is devoted to framed magazine and newspaper articles chronicling his career. A Fortune magazine clipping from 2001 declares Citi one of its “10 Most Admired Companies.”

On another wall hangs a hunk of wood — at least 4 feet wide — etched with his portrait and the words “The Shatterer of Glass-Steagall.” The memento is a reference to the repeal in 1999 of Depression-era legislation; the repeal overturned core financial regulations, allowed for the creation of Citi and helped feed the Wall Street boom...

Remember this story next time you read the praises of the Captains of Industry.

Post-industrial employment: adjusting to a new world

Six years ago I wrote a review of Robert Reich's book Reason. Reason was a reaction to the GOP's loony rule, but Reich was also very concerned about the fate of the middle class. He was worried that only knowledge workers were going to have work. His answer was better education.

I disagreed. I thought knowledge workers were very much at risk in a "winner take all" world, and I was skeptical that education was really a universal solution (emphases added now)...

... Reich is persisting in the 19th century belief that humans are fundamentally malleable -- at least when young.

Most of the research of the past 10-20 years points to a more complex picture...

... the evidence is strong that humans are not endlessly malleable. This is an increasing problem, because 21st century America rewards a fairly narrow range of workers. In the new-world, many of the old-middle class may not have a happy home -- no matter how hard they retrain. In a fundamental way, many Americans may be "disabled" for the modern workplace.

Reich should not be so quick to write-off redistributive solutions. We will need some creative thinking to produce a healthy American when the true "disability" rate starts to top 30%.

I think the world is coming around to my perspective. For example (undated articles are recent):

• The New Poor - In Job Market Shift, Some Workers are Left Behind - Catherine Rampell
• Plan B - Skip College - Jacques Steinberg - NYT
• The Way We Live Now - Students of the Great Recession - David Leonhardt - NYT
• Your Money - Another Debt Crisis Is Brewing, This One in Student Loans - Ron Lieber - NYT
• College Education, Good Jobs: Why Degrees Are Overrated - TIME (Feb 2010)
• The paradox of 21st century prosperity (Reich, 2009)
• Gordon's Notes: Why your daughters should be roofers -- not architects (3/23/2004)
• In the Basement of the Ivory Tower - The Atlantic (2008) - college as a waste of time for some
• Krugman on globalization: how to manage the losers - Krugman -NYT (2007)
• Where has the money gone? To the very American oligarchy - Krugman - NYT (2006)
• The day of the American engineer has passed (2005)
• Shaken and Stirred - DeLong and Cohen - The Atlantic (2005)
• The New Feudalism: Return of the Trades (2004)
• On redistribution (2004 - Baumol's Disease)
• Jared Bernstein & Brad DeLong on "Outsourcing": a dialog with interesting discussions (2004)

I hope you've taken the time to scan at least a few of the above (esp. Rampell, Steinberg and the discussion of Baumol's Disease). Taken together they reflect a consensus that's emerged over the past six years. I'd summarize it this way:

1. College has become insanely expensive. (The College Industry will be the next bubble to burst.)
2. There's a growing disconnect between the costs of college and the value delivered.
3. Many students would be better served by skills ("vocational") training rather than traditional scholarship.
4. Technology and globalization have eliminated large numbers of office jobs and made some old skills obsolete. Many of the middle-aged middle-class people who lost their jobs in the Great Recession won't work again.
5. In an age of outsourcing, knowledge work may be no more secure than factory work.

Ok, so the last isn't part of the consensus ... yet. It's still mostly a suspicion of mine.

So if we really are entering a world where many formerly middle-class adults won't be able to find stable employment, simply because they lack the skills for the jobs that do exist, what should we do?

College is probably not the answer. In 2007 and 2004 I suggested:

• universal health care (astoundingly, this might happen!)
• separate benefits from employment
• intelligent retraining programs - based on individual skills assessments and locally available employment
• As part of social security reform, eliminate the idea of age-specific retirement. Income has mandatory contributions to tax-deferred funds and non-work (study, vacation, job seeking, whatever) draws from those funds*.
• rethink the meaning of disability in a post-industrial society

The last will be the hardest, but I think we'll get to all of these in time. Civilization is stronger than we think. One way or another, we'll figure this one out - including finding a future for those who don't seem to have a place in the modern economy.

* I first proposed something like this in a 1977 Women's Studies course essay. I just remembered that ...

Update 6/2/10: Robert Reich on "Entrepreneur or Employed". Excellent summary. The modern 50+ knowledge worker is not "unemployed" s/he is "self-employed". S/he is a masterless, "Ronin" contract worker. Reich's recommendations are very close to what I wrote above. There's one in particular I like: "... Since they can no longer depend on tax-free corporate matches to their 401(k)’s or I.R.A.’s, they should be entitled to tax credits that match them". This is one measure Obama might be able to squeak by the GOP loons in Congress.

Obama and the Gulf: Why I remain grateful - and puzzled

We're a long way from knowing what went wrong in the Gulf. It does appear, however, that we don't have the technology to cost-effectively extract this kind of oil (assuming cost includes environmental and commercial damages from accidents). So it makes sense to stop all further exploration and drilling while we reassess our true capabilities.

I like to think that's a common-sense observation. The astounding thing, for those of us who remember GWB, is that my President is saying the same thing ...

Obama Restates Need for More Oil Before U.S. Uses Less - Dot Earth Blog - NYTimes.com

... So the overall framework, which is to say domestic oil production should be part of our overall energy mix, I think continues to be the right one. Where I was wrong was in my belief that the oil companies had their act together when it came to worst-case scenarios.

Now, that wasn’t based on just my blind acceptance of their statements. Oil drilling has been going on in the Gulf, including deep water, for quite some time. And the record of accidents like this we hadn’t seen before. But it just takes one for us to have a wake-up call and recognize that claims that fail-safe procedures were in place, or that blowout preventers would function properly, or that valves would switch on and shut things off, that — whether it’s because of human error, because of the technology was faulty, because when you’re operating at these depths you can’t anticipate exactly what happens — those assumptions proved to be incorrect...

I don't think Obama is Saint. We know he has to have a galactic ego, and we assume he lies about his smoking addiction.

Even so, I almost tear up when I read him saying this stuff. He makes sense. He's not insane, he's not frothing, he is a clear thinker. It's mind-boggling to have a President who's not a whack job.

We had Cheney/Bush. We could have had Palin/McCain. We got Obama.

That still puzzles me.

How the heck did we get Obama? We're not that smart ...

Good news on social security: Obesity

My family spent the afternoon at the neighborhood pool on a hot new-climate spring day. From the looks of things, we'd all do well in a famine. Minnesota has an average obesity rate, so I was seeing America.

We're not going to live as long as we expect. I wouldn't be surprised if average life expectancy began to fall over the next twenty years.

That's good news for social security of course. Now all we have to do is encourage smoking.

Causes of the Great Recession: The Congressional Report

Via Economix, the Congressional Research Service report on proposed causes of the "financial crisis" (pdf). They have a long list of candidate contributing factors, several of my 2/2009 items make the list.

My April 2010 list is much shorter -- in recent times I've stepped back from the intermediate causes and looked to global economic transformation (China, India) and information technology as the true root causes of current and, I expect, ongoing, instability.

The CRS list isn't terribly interesting. They've basically rounded up all the suspects.

Apple vs. Google: I'm caught in the crossfire

John Gruber is a fan of the Apple-Google war ...

Daring Fireball: Post-I/O Thoughts

... It’s exciting, vicious, fun to watch, and ultimately should prove to be excellent news for consumers. Competition drives innovation and innovation raises the bar for everyone. And the bar, for smartphones, is rising quickly.

Like any great rivalry, there are striking differences between the two competitors. Apple and Google are jostling to shift the comparison between the two platforms to their very different strengths. Apple’s strengths: user experience, design, consistency. Google’s strengths: the cloud, variety, permissiveness..

Me? Not so much.

I have made two big vendor bets for my family and me in the past decade. Yes, Google and Apple. Google made me smarter, Apple provided us a relatively hassle free personal computing solution. When I bought my 3G iPhone I experienced the perfect union of the technology giants of 2007.

Then it all came apart. The Apple-Google war sucks. There's nothing fun about it for me.

I have large Apple investments, but if I were single I'd go with Google, drop the iPhone, and run Chrome on my Macs. Yes, I love the elegance of the iPhone, but Google delivers the services I really need for my mobile life - and to be personally productive. Google is sometimes a bit evil, but Apple is the Singapore of computing. Efficient, but ultimately tyrannical. Bereft of Google, Apple is now running with Facebook. Talk about embracing the Dark Side of the Force.

I'm not single though. I have three children, one dog, and today's my 24th wedding anniversary. Google does not get families, Google does not, not, not get children. (I think the Gmail EULA has a teen or young adult age cutoff.) I could live with the rough edges of the gPhone (though my dental grinding would be expensive), but my family could not.

There's no way I'm supporting two platforms. Apple's FairPlay DRM allows up to five users per app or product -- we're a family of five. That's a big advantage for Apple.

So I can't leave Apple. On the other hand, I can't live without Google and Apple's boy-toy Facebook is a bizarro clone of 1990s Microsoft.

So I get hit from both sides. Each time I use Google's crummy, miserable, slow, balky HTML 5 web 2.0 Google Voice app I take a bullet. (Gruber sings the praise of iPhone web apps. I bet he doesn't use Google Voice on the iPhone.)

I don't have a solution. Anyone wanna find a bar with bad country music and drink bad whiskey?

Update 5/29/10: Another blogger shares my pain.

Google TV, Flash, iPhone and Curated Computing - it's all about the DRM

Imagine that Drexler'sengines of creation were real. Imagine we all had devices that could make diamonds, phones, cars and the like on demand. All we needed were some raw materials and energy.

This would be disruptive. DeBeers wouldn't last the day. Economies would collapse. Hellfire would rain down.

Eventually, however, I suspect our complex adaptive world would return to a balance. A new generation of improved replicators would replace the old ones. The new ones would come with controls that made it, for example, impossible to replicate currency. Civilization wants to survive.

We saw this with VCRs. The first recorders were amazing at capturing movies, but later generation devices incorporated "macrovision" copy protection. Recording features became less common, VCRs became largely playback devices. The rebel was subverted.

We're seeing it now with the digital replicators of our era. First generation devices made perfect copies of CDs and even DVDs. Slowly, however, the market is moving from general purpose computers with computers that won't replicate some DRMd video to iPad-style "curated computing". Surprise -- the iPad won't rip a DVD. It won't even rip a CD. (If record companies aren't buying 2nd hand CDs and destroying them they deserve to perish.)

In 20 years, it will be fairly hard to replicate many things. In a world with limited local storage, you may find your purloined media won't survive long in the cloud. The system is strong, It wants to live.

If you think about DRM, a lot of things make sense. Why are Apple so virulently opposed to Flash [1]? Why is Adobe dissembling when they say Flash is open (they published the specs)? Because the video codecs in Flash are not nearly as important as the DRM (Digital Rights Management) technology in Flash. That is most assuredly not open; it's as closed as Apple's FairPlay. What's Google up to with Google TV and their app stores? Check out the DRM to understand. Why are Hulu and Netflix reluctant to sign on the iPad? Because they'd have to substitute FlashDRM for FairPlay. That means Apple would own them.

This battle will rage for a time, but in 20 years it will be largely forgotten -- and the digital replicators will have been tamed. Resistance is futile.

See also:

• Gordon's Notes: The limits to DRM: my new car stereo (in 2007 I was still resisting)

[1] Personally, like virtually all Mac geeks, I despise Flash and consider Adobe to be as decrepit as Microsoft. I agreed with pretty much everything Jobs wrote about Flash in his open letter. I think, however, that even if none of those things were true Apple would be at war with Adobe. Part of Jobs evil genius is that he's a master magician -- he distracts with one hand while he moves with the other.

--My Google Reader Shared items (feed)

Civilization is stronger than we think: Structural deficits and complex adaptive systems

The more humans you know, the harder it is to imagine that civilization can endure. Billions of consumers. Environmental collapse. Climate change. Peak Oil. China's gender wars. The falling cost of havoc. The GOP. Skynet, sooner or later.

It looks hopeless, but on the other hand it's been 58 years since the first fusion weapon was detonated - and we're still here. That's surprising.

It's not just technology that we've survived. It seems impossible that democracies can manage their finances, but they do ...

Adam Smith's Money World - Onc is not Enough

... Greece has its debt bail-out, or appears to have, but there’s still that riot-inducing issue of government budget cuts. Is it even feasible for a government to cut its budget by as much as the International Monetary Fund has demanded of Greece? Yes it is very possible -- all too possible, in fact -- according to the IMF’s own study. In the past three decades there have been at least nine instances in which developed nations have cut their structural deficits by at least 10 percent of GDP...

It's true that some nations do better than others, but it's impressive that, faced with doom, even troubled nations like Greece and the US draw back. For example, to our great shame we reelected George W Bush and Richard Cheney. We did not, however, elect John McCain (now sadly demented) and Sarah Palin.

How does reason emerge from chaos?

We don't know, but many suspect it has something to do with the properties of a complex adaptive system. In our case it's a system built of economics and politics and the noise of the disconnected and, perhaps, the cumulative influence of the rational individual. It's a system that is self-sustaining, a system that "wants to live".

The system is hard to measure, but it's strong. It's also a fractal response -- just as civilization is surprisingly robust, so too are its components. Consider the digital economy. Perfect, near zero cost replication was very disruptive -- but the systems is responding. The iPad, the Flash wars, Google TV, "curated computing" -- it's all about the system responding to the disruption. It's all about the Digital Rights Management (DRM). Of which I will say more ...

--My Google Reader Shared items (feed)

Unanticipated cloud app problems: The child

I've written about several issues with cloud apps. Here's a novel one.

For good reasons, I want my son to have access to email and calendaring, but not to Google search. We use Google Apps for our family domain.

It doesn't work. One feature of the cloud is there are few or no parental controls. One might try OS X Parental Controls, but it has serious issues with https sources. There are workarounds for these limitations, but the workarounds all require full access to Google search.

Desktop apps are a good fit for controlled access, cloud apps are not.

The hungry city

Paraphrased from In Our Time, The City - a history: "Pre-modern cities had death rates that were vastly greater than birth rates."