Tuesday, November 09, 2004

A calm and well reasoned analysis of the vote

The Washington Monthly
Based on this, my tentative conclusion is that the 'moral values' vote is a red herring. It played no bigger a role this year than in 2000.

Terrorism played a bigger role, mostly by being a more important issue to a lot more people. Bush's actual level of support among people who based their vote primarily on world affairs increased only modestly.

And that good old mainstay the economy was the most important of all. Compared to 2000, fewer people personally think they're doing better but more people believe the economy is in good shape anyway. And Bush was overwhelmingly successful in convincing those people that his policies deserved the credit.

Evangelicals were important, but they didn't increase their turnout beyond 2000. Very interesting. Reading the full posting terrorism was a plus for Bush.

The economic perception may be tied to a surprisingly jump in employment in the month prior to the election. If Rove engineered THAT I'm even more impressed than I was.

No comments: