NYMEX.com: Light Sweet Crude Oil: "Dec 2015 74.81"I would personally be quite surprised if oil were selling for less than US $100 a barrel in 2015. That would require either a stunning rise in the relative value of the US dollar, the economic collapse of China and India or Europe, or a technology or social breakthrough capable of reducing world oil demand by about 30% prior to 2025. Either that, or we make amazing oil discoveries that push "peak oil" day beyond my personal life expectancy .
Or maybe the futures market is predicting we'll really take global warming seriously, and create one hell of a carbon tax.
So maybe it's possible, but it sure seems unlikely. It seems even more unlikely that we'll remain at $75 US a barrel in five years; all of the "radical impacts" I've listed are particularly unlikely in that time frame.
Whatever happened to arbitrage?
So, how do I take $25K or so from the family kitty and make a derivatives bet that crude oil is over $100 a barrel on or after 11/1/2012?
 Which, by the way, would imply civilizational collapse from extreme global warming scenarios.
PS. I suspect this may be relevant.
Update: I fixed some arithmetic errors.
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