Friday, January 04, 2008

Summary of Iowa 2008

TP has a good analysis. Here's the GOP side:
Talking Points Memo | Where We Are

...Purely for my own reasons, I would have liked Romney to do better tonight, because I think he'd be a very weak national candidate. Rudy's already toast. Trailing Ron Paul tonight was just a confirmation of that. He's not even relevant...

McCain had a pretty poor night tonight, coming in fourth behind the comatose Fred Thompson. But let's not kid ourselves. Romney took a big blow tonight. And if he can't come back strong in New Hampshire his collapse will be McCain's gain -- not because McCain's on fire or has any money or really is in any kind of strong position by most objective measures. The truth, though, is that there's simply no one left. It ain't Thompson; ain't Rudy. You can't say Huckabee's out of it but put me down with those that just don't think he can overcome the twin hurdles of a) running amongst more moderate and cosmopolitan Republican electorates and b) running against almost the entire GOP establishment. And that leaves you with McCain.

The truth is that the Republican party tonight is in complete disarray. The best financed candidate just fell on his face. Their big winner of the evening is opposed by almost the entire establishment of his party. The frontrunner of recent months is lost down in Florida shakily repeating '9/11' under his breath like a hobo who needs a stiff drink.

McCain's just the only guy left. And that ain't nothing. Because one of them does have to win. And I'd rather see the Dems face Romney than McCain.
My favorite GOP candidate was also Romney. Primarily because I was pretty sure he'd lose, especially after his dismal 'any religion is ok as long as it's Judeo-Mormon-Christian' speech. Also, if he perchance won the election (Americans can do anything), he's probably the least bad of the bad after McCain.

Huckabee is going to play Reagan for all it's worth. I believe Josh Marshall when he says that won't work for him.

So it's McCain. There's much to admire about him, so I'm disappointed that he'll likely be the GOP candidate.

On the Dem side I hope Edwards still has some staying power. I worry that Obama hasn't had nearly enough nasty attacks. The GOP are going to go after him like a ton of bricks. I also worry about his ego. Presidents are never humble, but he could use another ten years of living.

The wild cards are Nader and Bloomberg ...
Open Left: Still No Specifics From AWWMNUUBM

... It would be nice, for once, if the constant drumbeat from Aging Wealthy White Men for National Unity Under Billionaire Media Moguls (AWWMNUUBM for short) decrying polarization, the lack of bi-partisanship and gridlock in Washington would actually provide specifics on what legislation their hated polarization, partisanship and gridlock is blocking. Of course, they won't actually do that, because blaming national problems on vague, undefined concepts like 'polarization' and 'gridlock' is much easier than actually analyzing the contemporary political scene in America...
If it's Obama or Edwards I don't think Nader will do anything. I'm hoping he's truly finished, but the man is a curse that keeps on giving.

Bloomberg would probably stay out if it's McCain vs. Obama. If it were Huckabee vs. Edwards I'm sure he'd run, but in that case he'd kill the GOP and give Edwards a large victory ...

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