Kurzweil - not so good at prediction after all

Kurzweil, to his credit, has kept his 1999 predictions for 2009 online.

He doesn't do very well, though I give him credit for trying. Most of the things he mentions seem credible, but the hardware items are more 2018 and the software items 2028 or later.

Last September Scott Aaronson critiqued Kurzweil's prediction of a 2045 Singularity. Aaronson voted for 2300. I worried then about 2100.

After seeing how far we are from Kurzweil's 1999 predictions 2045 looks extremely unlikely and I'm feeling better about 2100 (meaning it will be later than 2100).

So not in my lifetime, or, and this is rather a problem for him, not in Kurzweil's lifetime either.