Sunday, October 11, 2009

White water and the end of prediction

I've indulged my pundocratic penchant for prediction over the years.

I'm more or less reformed now however.

It's not that the future is hard to predict., As Cringely recently pointed out, we know how things go. The hard part is figuring out how we get there, and when we arrive. I think that was once worth a try.

That was then. Now our times are interesting. There's too much going down, too many interacting trendlines, too much non-laminar flow. Noise and chaos.

White water times. We're in 'em, and there's no visible exit -- as long as our civilization last.

How do we adapt to white water times? We have to be loose, alert, ready to paddle fast. Keep the gear lashed down, travel light, stay tied to a survival kit and keep your mates at hand.

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