Who killed Instant Messaging?

I know the smell of a dying solution, and IM's got it bad. It's not dead yet, but it's got seven tentacles in the grave.

I came late to IM, so I've only now realized why the party is so quiet. I started with Beejive on my iPhone as an SMS alternative. It worked fairly well, though I ran into server disconnect and message delay problems. Then I started using it with Google Talk at work. There I ran into issues with messages going to one client or the other but not always both.

It wasn't until I started looking at multi-account desktop XP clients, however, that I realized how bad things were. That's where I found cr*pware bearing unwanted toolbars, neglected and buggy open source solutions, walled gardens from AOL and Microsoft, and web apps that want my google credentials (good luck with that).

Yee-uch. I know that smell!

So if IM is dead or dying, who held the knife?

I'm guessing it was a combination of Twitter, SMS/texting bundles, the mobile migration, the unflinching stupidity of Yahoo/AOL/Microsoft/Skype (basically everyone but Google), the non-multitasking iPhone and, above all, the complete absence of any plausible revenue stream [1].

IM, I barely knew ya.

[1] So why are there pretty-good IM clients on the iPhone? Hint.

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My Google Reader Shared items (feed)

Archaic communications in 2010 - Gmail example

Dear Visitor from 2020:

I know you feel things haven't progressed very far, but you really need to take a look at how we did communications in 2010.

Believe it or not, in 2010 Google's Gmail could open 3 windows that looked like this ...

One was for something called email. Another was for something called "Chat" or "Instant Messaging". A third was for something called "SMS" or "Texting".

They all looked rather the same and did rather similar things, but they all worked somewhat differently with different phones and different computers. The SMS was the most restrictive, it was limited to less than 200 ascii characters! Despite being so limited, it cost much more than the others. It worked, however, with the archaic phones that persisted in the US until 2012.

Pretty bad eh? It gets worse. I'd tell you about Twitter, but you wouldn't understand it at all.

Aren't you glad you're not living in the dark ages any more?

john

Baseball parent communication: is it getting easier?

Naively, one would think it's getting easier to communicate with the parents of a 10 yo baseball player. After all, we have so many more ways to communicate than we did in the dark ages. Let's count them ...

1910 (2)

• Letter
• Handout (person present)

1950 - all of the above plus (4)

• Home phone (both parents)
• Work phone (father)

1990 - all of the above plus (11)

• Home phone (father) + answering machine
• Home phone (mother) + answering machine
• Work phone (mother) + answering machine
• Home email (father)
• Home email (mother)
• Work email (father)
• Work email (mother)

2009 - all of the above plus (now using m/f to represent mother/father) (20+)

• Mobile phone (m/f) + answering machine
• Web page
• Blog with feed
• Twitter
• Facebook page
• Google group or similar
• Google Voice
• SMS
• MMS
• Instant Messaging (multiple variants)
• Other email (m/f)
• and many more ...

So in about 100 years we've gone from 2 communication options to at least 20. So communicating about practice times, rain-outs, schedules, playoff and so on must be at least 10 times easier ...

Yeah, right.

Writing as a kid baseball coach, I'm guessing 1950 was probably the heyday of parental communication. Back then phone trees more or less worked and families were forced to more or less live in the same space. This year it was damned near impossible -- perhaps due to the profusion of communication channels, the increasingly failure of email (spam, message loss, account turnover) the disruption of employment changes (phone changes, lost mobile phone, etc), the failure of the feed reader, and the virus infestations that have disabled many XP-based home computers.

We tried to use a blog (so web access + feed) supplemented with email and, when pressed, a phone call (inevitably to a voice mail that seemed to be rarely checked). It didn't really work, but I"m not sure what would.

When it comes to communication, we're in full throttle tech churn. There's no common, standard communication channel that reaches a diverse group of people. We had one parent on Twitter, a few that checked their email somewhat reliably, perhaps 1-2 who would visit the web page, and several that were fairly unreachable.

I'm betting that we've reached an apotheosis of communication of communication dysfunction. Communication is important, and, sooner or later, people are going to figure out that we need fewer, better, options.

Alas, I suspect we won't get back to the highpoint of the 1950s for decades to come ...

Cutting your communication costs

Our monthly communications bill, including landline, mobile and net, is a good percentage of our food or mortgage bills.

Pretty impressive, unfortunately. I'm constantly looking for ways to drop the cost. The main things we've done and not done are:

• We don't do SMS. That saves us about $35 a month, even after we pay the fees for the messages we do get.
• I signed up for an AT&T Canadian calling plan to reduce the costs of the frequent mobile phone calls I make to aged parents. That saved some money, but then ...
• I started using Google GrandCentral (now Google Voice) to call Canada. That has saved about $1,000 a year (!)
• We do Netflix rather than cable TV. That saves us about $25/month and is a much better experience (save that Netflix has too many broken DVDs for children).
• Rather than pay $10/month to add a phone to the family plan, we signed up for a T-Mobile pay-go plan. Estimated savings of $80 a year, so it may not have been worth the hassle.
• We do pay for a higher quality/performance ISDN service, but that's been worth it in terms of reliability.
• When iPhone 3.0 comes out with Push support for instant messaging, we'll use that and see if our phone minutes drop enough to justify switching to AT&T's smallest iPhone family plan.
• We dropped long distance services from our landline -- it's local only. We haven't dropped our landline yet and, with 3 kids without mobile phones, we probably won't. However when Google Voice comes out for everyone each child and my wife will get GV numbers.
• We get a 15% discount on our AT&T mobile services through John's employer
• Rather than pay for fax line we use maxemail, a pay-as-you go fax send and receive service. They're bare bones primitive, but excellent service, low cost, and much more reliable than even high end office fax machines. We scan documents to the server from our ancient brother printer and then upload. (It's a safe market niche btw, Google is never going to get into something as messy as fax receipt and fax seems eternal.)

All in all we've hacked off about $2,000 a year. Today's NYT suggests some other options, though many don't apply to us. Some of the best tips come when you're dissatisfied enough about your current pricing to consider switching services (or willing to bluff). I'm going to take a look at the cable alternatives to my current ISP and decide if I want to threaten a switch. 

Basics - How to Cut the Beastly Cost of Digital Services - NYTimes.com

... Cable, satellite and telephone companies can only be overjoyed that millions of their customers take no action to lower their bills, and instead routinely pay much too much for overpriced plans they purchased a decade ago.

Faced with increased competition, they will gladly tell you about better package prices if you ask, but they won’t be calling you up to tell you how you can save money.

Pull out your bills and then call all your providers. Tell them you’re paying too much and you want to lower your bill. They can only say no.

IF THEY SAY NO, THREATEN TO SWITCH ...

... The regular customer service representative won’t be as empowered as someone in the cancellation department to cut you a better deal.

“We will work with our customers to find a package that suits them,” said Bill Kula, a Verizon spokesman.

At their discretion, Verizon sales reps can cut the price of DSL service, offer free months of Internet access, increase the discount on voice service or give a $50 American Express gift card to customers returning to Verizon’s television service.

AT&T gives its employees similar powers to make deals. Reps are known to offer enhanced services for a basic price, and to lower the cost of one service to its bundled price even if you’re not buying the bundle. “If it’s a matter of keeping the customer, we’ll do the best we can,” said Fletcher Cook, an AT&T spokesman.

... AT&T, for example, offers local and unlimited long distance for $40.

That price drops to $35 if you also get wireless (but you must tell the company to combine your bills). A $99 package includes unlimited landline service, a DSL connection and wireless service for $10 less than those services would cost if priced separately. The company will also pay new customers $100 to sign up.

ASK FOR CORPORATE DISCOUNTS Many corporations have discounts with the major wireless phone carriers. Bring your corporate business card to a wireless carrier’s store or check your company’s intranet site for particulars. Depending on the company, you can typically knock $10 off the monthly cost for a smartphone’s voice and data plans.

iPhone 3.0 - how many of my wishes were granted?

Here's how my personal wish list of last week played out. The Good stuff is in purple, Bad news in Red...

Gordon's Notes: Dreaming of iPhone 3.0 - my wishes

1. External keyboard support like the folding keyboards that were once sold with Palm. Maybe, since 3rd parties can now use the connector.
   
2. A standard way for 3rd party applications to synchronize with the desktop (maybe through the heretofore off-limits dock connector). No, this was not included (my first impression was wrong).
3. Something that lets me do instant messaging without paying SMS fees. Yes.
4. A Calendar API so 3rd party apps can get at Calendar data and manipulate it. No, this was not included.
   
5. Filemaker for the iPhone (not Apple so doesn't count)
6. Fix the weird scrolling and text limit problems with long contact and calendar notes (unknown)
7. Make the Calendar app more real. Better control of alerts, ability to do invitations, etc. (unknown)
8. Tethering. Widely expected, but not included. Of course there is the open connector. Either AT&T's network isn't ready or Apple and AT&T couldn't agree on revenue sharing and price. (Update: in the Q&A Apple confirmed the phone is ready, it's now all about the operators.)
   
9. Support multi-account synchronization: Additional calendar types sounds like it does at least part of what I want.
10. Cut, Copy, Paste: I assumed that was a done deal so I didn't bother to list it. They did this one very well.

Against this list there are former "Demands" that I've now given up on ...

1. Tasks and Notes: They did Note Sync after all, no tasks though. I don't care since Google is going to do Tasks.
2. Search: I gave up on this one, but Apple did it anyway. Yay!

Since there's an API for iPod.app I assume Clock.app will finally be able set music alarms. I'm perfectly happy with using Spotlight to find apps.

Overall, very good news for me. Sometime this summer (September?) I'm going to get somewhere between 50% and 80% of what I hoped for. I liked Apple's hardware announcements last month so that's twice in a row Apple has done good things for me.

Update: Tidbits claimed that VOIP is among the API services. Huh?! That can't be right.

Update 2: Ars Techica says the same thing. iPhone 3.0 will offer VOIP? Am I confused? Between Google Voice and iPhone VOIP why do I need all those AT&T minutes and long distance services?

Update 3/18/09: More like 50% of what I'd asked for. Unfortunately two of my key requests, Calendar access and a standard sync infrastructure were not included. I've revised my original post. So for me it's only a good announcement, not a great announcement.

Why is iPhone 3.0 push notification carrier specific?

The big value proposition for iPhone 3.0 push notification is dumping SMS fees and using instant messaging.

That's an internet app though. So why does iPhone 3.0 push notification require adjustment by carrier?

Macworld | iPhone Software 3.0: Live Update

... IT's a unified generic push notification service for all developers. They've also optimized it for mobile networks. Since they're in over 80 countries, with over 25 carriers, there are a bunch of different configurations. Apple does the hard work keeping the connection open. "And now it's really scalable and ready to go...

So do the carriers get to protect SMS revenue after all?

Dreaming of iPhone 3.0 - my wishes

We're all dreaming of iPhone 3.0. It's a good break from reading about the collapse of western civilizations.

After reading the PC(!) Magazine list I want to play the wishing game too. Here's an update to my prior iPhone "demands" (Most of them are not on the PC Mag list):

1. External keyboard support like the folding keyboards that were once sold with Palm.
2. A standard way for 3rd party applications to synchronize with the desktop (maybe through the heretofore off-limits USB cable).
3. Something that lets me do instant messaging without paying SMS fees. (Background notification, multitasking, whatever)
4. A Calendar API so 3rd party apps can get at Calendar data and manipulate it
5. Filemaker for the iPhone (ok, so that's not an Apple thing, but I miss it)
6. Fix the weird scrolling and text limit problems with long contact and calendar notes
7. Make the Calendar app more real. Better control of alerts, ability to do invitations, etc.
8. Tethering. This will probably happen.
9. Support multi-account synchronization: Currently you can sync with MobileMe and Exchange Server. I want to be able to sync to Google with Exchange Server and to my corporate Exchange Server but keep the two separate.
10. Steal some PIM/Calendaring/multiple sync features from the (still unreal) Palm Pre
    

Against this list there are former "Demands" that I've now given up on, because they were either misguided or because I don't think Apple can do 'em:

1. Forget about Tasks and Notes. I wanted them when I thought Apple could do MobileMe but they can't. Now I'm prepared to wait for Google to do 'em and for Appigo to manage the client side. The key is access to the Calendar.
   
2. Search: I'd like to be able to search for strings across apps, but I think this one's too hard. Most apps have finally added in-app Search and that's working for me.
   

I'm surprised by how many workarounds have developed around the iPhone's fairly severe PIM/PDA limitations. Google's Exchange service has been a miracle.

Update 9/13/09: I've been thinking about the possibility of iPhone instant messaging combined with Google Voice and a possible (if Apple allows it!) Google Voice app for the iPhone. Line those things up against AT&T's diabolical mobile phone contracting schemes and we might save some real money -- which might not make Apple happy.

Price fixing investigations of SMS texting: also ask about instant messaging

In reign of the Dark Lord antitrust enforcement languished. The Marketarian religion did not admit to imperfections requiring government attention.

In the recovery new light is being cast where dark things have grown ...

Digital Domain - What Carriers Aren’t Eager to Tell You About Texting

... Senator Herb Kohl, Democrat of Wisconsin and the chairman of the Senate antitrust subcommittee, wanted to look behind the curtain. He was curious about the doubling of prices for text messages charged by the major American carriers from 2005 to 2008, during a time when the industry consolidated from six major companies to four...

A lot of things changed when the Democrats took the senate. (Thank you, thank you, Senator Tim Johnson). This was one of them.

I hope Senator Kohl will look beyond the price fixing of SMS messages into the more interesting questions of conspiracy to block instant messaging alternatives.

In particular, I think it will be interesting to ask Apple's management to discuss what happened to the Push notification that was supposed to come to the iPhone in August of 2008. That service would have enabled effective iPhone instant messaging, which would have devastated the iPhone SMS revenue that goes to both AT&T and Apple. Once slated for the OS 2.2 Push notification vanished without explanation.

Anyone have an in to Senator Kohl? I would really love to hear the answers to those questions ...

What can I do with Twitter, and is it CB Radio redux?

I'm still trying to figure out the upside of Twitter for me. It looks potentially useful as a way to get availability/status information and to synchronize a loosely-coupled distributed entity, but mostly it seems like a oddly constrained form of entertainment.

Being a proto-gomer, that reminded me of something ...

ConnectMe Networks: Twitter vs CB Radio: What Makes These Mobile Services So Popular

... CB radio was a lot like Twitter: in the late 70s and early 80s, millions of people bought these radios initially because it allowed them to communicate with each other to locate cheap gas and to notify others of speed traps. But it fell victim to its own popularity: because of the millions of users jamming onto the grid, channels became incredibly noisy and communication became next to impossible. Once people started to use their radios less frequently, it opened the door for a competing technology: the mobile phone...

CB radio lasted about 4-5 years as a popular movement and AOL chat rooms were good for 10 years, so I give Twitter 3-8 years as a recreational/social medium. Good for some, uninteresting for me.

The useful part of Twitter has to do with the people synchronization problem, the ongoing limits of calendar integration, and the business quirks driving the SMS/IM wars. These things look like they may take years to sort out, during which time Twitter can morph as needed.

CB Radio didn't have that morphing potential -- it ended as it started. So Twitter isn't CB radio, or at least the people synchronization broadcast/asynchronous receipt part of it isn't.

So when might it be useful for me? That's hard to figure, given that so far SMS/IM is only useful between my wife and I, and even then we're limited by Apple's craven refusal to provide Google Talk/Chat or any other app with instant messaging push services.

I think when our children have cell phones and are more independent, or when both my wife and I have phones with working push notification (iPhones if Apple ever caves), or if my work were to change dramatically, I'll have a real use for Twitter.

Not just yet though.