Sunday, February 22, 2004

Ralph Nader -- funding by Rove?

BBC NEWS | Americas | Nader announces presidential bid
Our correspondent says with so much antagonism, even among his own former supporters, Ralph Nader's first problem will be getting enough signatures even to get himself onto the ballot in many states.

The most charitable explanation is that Nader truly believes that American democracy has collapsed. There are many people worried about the health of American democracy, but maybe Nader thinks we're gone over the edge into a covert police state.

A less charitable explanation is that he's an insane megalomaniac who'll take down the world to feed his ego.

Either way, he has guaranteed funding. A tiny portion of the Rove/Bush bankroll will ensure Nader gets the 1-3% of the vote needed to tip the election to Bush. The only mystery is whether Rove need be all that covert about how he funds Nader. After all, if Ralph believes the system is hopelessly corrupt, he might as well take Rove's money.

Saturday, February 21, 2004

Neo-Feudalism: Return of the Trades

Essay: A Prettier Jobs Picture?
[The Bureau of Labor Statistics] ... is much less adept at counting employees in small businesses, simply because there are too many small enterprises to representatively sample them. The bureau's occupational survey, which might suggest which jobs are growing, doesn't count self-employed people or partners in unincorporated businesses at all. And many of today's growing industries, the ones adding jobs even amid the recession, are comprised largely of small companies and self-employed individuals. That is particularly true for aesthetic crafts, from graphic designers and cosmetic dentists to gardeners. These specialists' skills are in ever greater demand, yet they tend to work for themselves or in partnerships.

Ahh, yes. The aesthetic crafts. Minstrels and gardeners, servants and carpenters. I had quite an interesting discussion the other day with a master carpenter who makes a fine living doing cabinets ... on yachts.

No more inheritance tax. Increasing concentration of wealth by inheritance, network effects ("winner take all"), regressive taxation and tax avoidance. It all adds up to an increasingly wealthy and powerful elite and an army of gardeners, entertainers, tradesman and craftsman to serve them. Don't send your children to college, let them be minstrels.

The last time we did this there were barons and kings upon the land, and the wealthy lived in walled cities surrounded by the heaving masses ...

Tne Malaysian Connection: the diffusion of nuclear weapons (washingtonpost.com)

Insider Tells Of Nuclear Deals, Cash (washingtonpost.com)
Tahir, however, had turned his attention to Malaysia, marrying the daughter of a former Malaysian diplomat in a society wedding in 1998 and gaining permanent residency there.

He also saw business opportunities. Though he had planned in 2001 to manufacture centrifuge components in Turkey with a Turkish associate, police said, Tahir changed his mind and suggested that the parts be produced by a politically connected Malaysian company, Scomi Precision Engineering.

An astounding story is unraveling, beyond the best of Ian Fleming. A wonderful and terrible example the power of markets.

Tahir was a key player in the China-Pakistan-Libya-Malaysia-Iran (more to come) nuclear weapons trade. The Malaysia connection is highly interesting. Malaysia is a high tech manufacturing nation ruled by Mahathir (semi-retired), an autocratic tyrant with a record of successful rule and a hatred of the "West". It is a police state. Did Mahathir know that a Malaysian engineering firm was doing high tech manufacturing for Libya's bomb?

The other thread in this story is the astounding capabilities of the IAEA and Mohammed el Baradei. Maybe he could assume command of the CIA?

Friday, February 20, 2004

Science and the media: brain rot from electric motors?

ScienceDaily News Release: Exposure To Low-level Magnetic Fields Causes DNA Damage In Rat Brain Cells, Researchers Find
Since Lai first reported findings of magnetic field-induced DNA damage in 1995, several laboratories in Europe and India have reported similar effects.

The other day I commented on how responsibly one journalists had handled the peculiar association between heavy antibiotic use and breast cancer. Now we have the other side of the coin.

The journalist mentions the results of an earlier study were validated by "several laboratories in Europe and India". A corollary of this statement is that NO lab in North America has been able to duplicate the earlier results.

That's a heck of a red flag.

And not pointing that out is cruddy journalism.

Thursday, February 19, 2004

The fall of Howard Dean

NYT, Jon Margolis - Howard’s End
In Vermont, Dr. Dean was never a very good politician. He was quite a good governor. He was a prudent steward of the state's finances. He expanded social services while reducing taxes. During the debate over civil unions in 2000, he not only kept his word but he also kept his cool.

On the campaign trail, though, Dr. Dean was a dud. Here was a man with neither a thirst for the political jugular nor a sense of timing.

Clinton was a very able President, a tremendous politician, and a flawed human being. Roosevelt and Kennedy were rather similar. Washington was a weak campaigner, but never had to campaign. Lincoln had it all. Churchill, despite his tremendous oratorical skills, was (I think!) weak on the campaign trail.

I don't agree with Mr Margolis that Howard Dean was a poor politician. I think to be a an effective governor, which he was, one has to be skilled in many aspects of politics. He was, however, a very weak entertainer. He was not strong in debate. He couldn't manage an attack. He lacked the skills that lawyers learn. He was not a campaigner.

It is a cliche that the very best person to be president would never run, and were they to be forced to run they would never have the campaign skills. There's some truth to that. We're stuck with entertainers.

Wednesday, February 18, 2004

Economist.com | The fight against spam - buying a managed reputation

Economist.com | The fight against spam
THE short history of society's fight against spam—usually defined as unwanted commercial e-mail—may be about to pass into a significant third phase. In the first phase, it was geeks who led the resistance, using techie weapons such as e-mail filters with fancy Bayesian mathematics. In the second phase, politicians joined in, eager to get their names on to new legislation—in America, for instance, 36 states and Congress have passed laws of some sort against spam. Now, in the third phase, the economists are taking over.

This is my managed reputation of sending service proposal, except that one "buys" the reputation. A nice variation!

A star dies long ago and far away ...

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | Huge black hole tears apart star
The X-ray outburst is one of the most extreme ever detected and was caused by gas from the destroyed star being heated to millions of degrees.

The black hole is at the centre of a galaxy known as RX J1242-11 and is estimated to have a mass about 100 million times that of the sun. RX J1242-11 is an estimated 700 million light years away from Earth...

'The centre of the galaxy flared up in a brilliant burst of X-rays thousands of times brighter than all of the billions of stars of this galaxy taken together.'

Not that far away really. I wonder what happened to all the peoples alive in that galaxy 700 milllion years ago ...

[update: A later NASA release said that radiation levels at the galactic periphery, aka the habitable band of most galaxies, would not be hazardous to life.]

Newsday.com - Study: Pox Vaccine Loses Punch

Newsday.com - Study: Pox Vaccine Loses Punch
A study published today suggests that the effectiveness of the chicken pox vaccine decreases significantly in the first year after it's given but also notes that most vaccinated children who subsequently came down with the disease had mild illnesses.

A team led by Dr. Marietta Vazquez of the Yale University School of Medicine found that the vaccine was 97 percent effective in preventing chicken pox in the first year after the shot was given, but 84 percent effective two to eight years after it was administered.

This was always the argument against vaccinating children for chicken pox. As is true with several viral diseases, chicken pox is far more dangerous in adults then children. If by vaccinating we've defered infection into adulthood we'll have injured more people than we've helped.

Monday, February 16, 2004

War and the survivors - NYT Magazine

The Permanent Scars of Iraq
It may be impossible, however, to fully counteract the shock of going from a 24-hour state of generalized fear-apprehension-paranoia, sustained for a year through wartime, to evenings at home on the La-Z-Boy, asked to fulfill the requirements of love and tenderness needed to sustain a family. In a well-publicized string of incidents in 2002, three Special Forces soldiers returned to Fort Bragg, N.C., from Afghanistan and killed their wives in a span of six weeks. All three soldiers committed suicide.

The long magazine article describes the psychic and viscious physical wounds of the Iraq and Afghan wars -- from the American perspective. Many who would have died in previous conflicts live with post-traumatic brain syndromes, obvious disabilities, and psychic trauma.

Breast Cancer and Antibiotic use: responsible reporting!

Study Suggests Breast Cancer Is Linked to Use of Antibiotics
Frequent use of antibiotics has been linked to a greater risk of breast cancer, say researchers who studied thousands of American women and found that those who took the drugs most often had twice the risk of the disease.

The study uncovered a relationship between greater use of antibiotics and a heightened risk of breast cancer, but researchers sought to temper their findings by cautioning that they had only highlighted an association, not a causal link.

Astoundingly this was reported responsibly! The journalist made clear this was an association, and that most researchers don't think the antibiotics are causing breast cancer. Instead the interest is what's special about these women that they use so many antibiotics and/or that they are so susceptible to infection requiring antibiotic therapy.

Since I first read this news report I actually did read the JAMA article:JAMA -- Abstracts: Velicer et al. 291 (7): 827. They found a very strong statistical association between increasing use of oral antibiotics and increased risk of breast cancer -- about doubling risk -- even after "ruling out" other associated factors.

This is roughly similar to the efffect of other things known to increase breast cancer risk, such as frequent periods (infertility, etc). However there are lots of issues and oddities with this study:

1. These association studies don't have a great track record. Over the past 20 years I've guess more than 50% don't pan out. It usually turns out that the there was a missed cofactor that was the real agent.

2. WHY were these women using SO many antibiotics? Did they all have something wrong with their immune system? Did they have some "bad habits" -- like smoking or alcohol use that predisposed them to infection?

3. Because of where they got their data, the researchers have no information on either smoking or alcohol use. Both of these will increase antibiotic use, and both are risk factors for breast cancer. Smoking is getting more attention lately.

4. ALL the antibiotics had very similar effects, despite being very different medicines with very different actions. This suggests that the real cause was not the antibiotics, but something related to these women's need for them.

5. Do we see a relationship in animal models between antibiotic use and breast cancer?

My gut suspicion is that this is spurious, and and that smoking and/or alcohol use are the real actors that are producing an association between breast cancer and antibiotic use.

Frank Rich: My Hero, Janet Jackson (NYT)

Frank Rich: My Hero, Janet Jackson
Two weeks after the bustier bust, almost no one has come to the defense of Janet Jackson. I do so with a full heart. By baring a single breast in a slam-dunk publicity stunt of two seconds' duration, this singer also exposed just how many boobs we have in this country. We owe her thanks for a genuine public service.

Frank Rich is rockin and rollin in this terrific column. He rips everyone but JJ, and does so with gusto, glee and a bit of outrage.

Saffire's recent column on media consolidation is a good companion to this one.

Go Janet!

Sunday, February 15, 2004

The chemistry and biology of love -- how complex are we? (The Economist)

Economist.com | The science of love
If this doesn't keep you awake at night, you're on better drugs than I. Although most Economist articles require a subscription to access, I think this is one of the public articles. I've excerpted portions below. When you read the full article, think about (Science fiction readers, of course, have seen all these discussed in some depth. We didn't really believe, however, that this knowledge would have near-term applicability.):

- why and how children love parents and how one could treat reactive attachment disorder
- the suggested effect of SSRIs (Prozac, etc) on children and adults
- the nature of mass movements, from Hitler to Stalin to Putin to Mao to Moon to ... Did those people not love their master?
- how to make someone, or many people, completely and utterly loyal to a person or a cause - forever
- or, how to make a sociopath
- what it would mean to be susceptible to one sort of behavior (lust or love or caring but not another), and what the social implications are? Are nuns born as well as made?
- the relationship of smoking (nicotine) use and sex may be more than hollywood fancy ...
- someone is going to put oxytocin and/or vasopressin in perfume, and in nasal inhalers
- what do vasopression and oxytocin do in bees and other colony insects?
- would you like to scan your partners DNA and know their capacity for fidelity? I'm sure a biological fluid would contain an adequate sample ...
- how this is part of a trend that suggests much of what we have thought of as complex (love) may have very simple mechanisms (though complex interactions), and what that implies about our nature and how hard it would to create something like us
... understanding the neurochemical pathways that regulate social attachments may help to deal with defects in people's ability to form relationships. All relationships, whether they are those of parents with their children, spouses with their partners, or workers with their colleagues, rely on an ability to create and maintain social ties...

The scientific tale of love begins innocently enough, with voles. The prairie vole is a sociable creature, one of the only 3% of mammal species that appear to form monogamous relationships. Mating between prairie voles is a tremendous 24-hour effort. After this, they bond for life. They prefer to spend time with each other, groom each other for hours on end and nest together. They avoid meeting other potential mates. The male becomes an aggressive guard of the female. And when their pups are born, they become affectionate and attentive parents. However, another vole, a close relative called the montane vole, has no interest in partnership beyond one-night-stand sex. What is intriguing is that these vast differences in behaviour are the result of a mere handful of genes. The two vole species are more than 99% alike, genetically.

... When prairie voles have sex, two hormones called oxytocin and vasopressin are released. [jf: oxytocin is also used in uterine contraction vasopressin constricts vessels -- the meaning of a biological message (hormone,etc) is utterly context dependent, and the human body contains many isolated contexts.] If the release of these hormones is blocked, prairie-voles' sex becomes a fleeting affair, like that normally enjoyed by their rakish montane cousins. Conversely, if prairie voles are given an injection of the hormones, but prevented from having sex, they will still form a preference for their chosen partner...

... when this magic juice was given to the montane vole: it made no difference. It turns out that the faithful prairie vole has receptors for oxytocin and vasopressin in brain regions associated with reward and reinforcement, whereas the montane vole does not. The question is, do humans (another species in the 3% of allegedly monogamous mammals) have brains similar to prairie voles?

[excerpted section -- unsurprisingly the actions of oxytocin and vasopressin are mediated, like all addictive behaviors, but the dopamine reward system. Nicotine and cocaine are the two drugs of abuse that have the most direct action on this system.]

... Dr Young and his colleagues suggest this idea in an article published last month in the Journal of Comparative Neurology. They argue that prairie voles become addicted to each other through a process of sexual imprinting mediated by odour. Furthermore, they suggest that the reward mechanism involved in this addiction has probably evolved in a similar way in other monogamous animals, humans included, to regulate pair-bonding in them as well.

Sex stimulates the release of vasopressin and oxytocin in people, as well as voles, though the role of these hormones in the human brain is not yet well understood. But while it is unlikely that people have a mental, smell-based map of their partners in the way that voles do, there are strong hints that the hormone pair have something to reveal about the nature of human love: among those of Man's fellow primates that have been studied, monogamous marmosets have higher levels of vasopressin bound in the reward centres of their brains than do non-monogamous rhesus macaques.

Other approaches are also shedding light on the question. In 2000, Andreas Bartels and Semir Zeki of University College, London, located the areas of the brain activated by romantic love. They took students who said they were madly in love, put them into a brain scanner, and looked at their patterns of brain activity.

... a relatively small area of the human brain is active in love, compared with that involved in, say, ordinary friendship. ... The second surprise was that the brain areas active in love are different from the areas activated in other emotional states, such as fear and anger. Parts of the brain that are love-bitten include the one responsible for gut feelings, and the ones which generate the euphoria induced by drugs such as cocaine. So the brains of people deeply in love do not look like those of people experiencing strong emotions, but instead like those of people snorting coke.

... Last year, Steven Phelps, who works at Emory with Dr Young, found great diversity in the distribution of vasopressin receptors between individual prairie voles. He suggests that this variation contributes to individual differences in social behaviour -- in other words, some voles will be more faithful than others. Meanwhile, Dr Young says that he and his colleagues have found a lot of variation in the vasopressin-receptor gene in humans. "We may be able to do things like look at their gene sequence, look at their promoter sequence, to genotype people and correlate that with their fidelity, he muses."

It has already proved possible to tinker with this genetic inheritance, with startling results. Scientists can increase the expression of the relevant receptors in prairie voles, and thus strengthen the animals' ability to attach to partners. And in 1999, Dr Young led a team that took the prairie-vole receptor gene and inserted it into an ordinary (and therefore promiscuous) mouse. The transgenic mouse thus created was much more sociable to its mate.

Scanning the brains of people in love is also helping to refine science's grasp of love's various forms. Helen Fisher, a researcher at Rutgers University, and the author of a new book on love*, suggests it comes in three flavours: lust, romantic love and long-term attachment. There is some overlap but, in essence, these are separate phenomena, with their own emotional and motivational systems, and accompanying chemicals. These systems have evolved to enable, respectively, mating, pair-bonding and parenting.

Lust, of course, involves a craving for sex. Jim Pfaus, a psychologist at Concordia University, in Montreal, says the aftermath of lustful sex is similar to the state induced by taking opiates. A heady mix of chemical changes occurs, including increases in the levels of serotonin, oxytocin, vasopressin and endogenous opioids (the body's natural equivalent of heroin) ///

Then there is attraction, or the state of being in love (what is sometimes known as romantic or obsessive love). This is a refinement of mere lust that allows people to home in on a particular mate. This state is characterised by feelings of exhilaration, and intrusive, obsessive thoughts about the object of one's affection. ... Dr Fisher's work, however, suggests that the actual behavioural patterns of those in love -- such as attempting to evoke reciprocal responses in one's loved one -- resemble obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD). [jf -- SSRIs are used to tread OCD and, the article suggests, could treat infatuation or unwanted love... The author also notes a side-effect ...]

... Drugs such as Prozac work by keeping serotonin hanging around in the brain for longer than normal, so they might stave off romantic feelings. (This also means that people taking anti-depressants may be jeopardising their ability to fall in love.) ...

There's quite a bit more, it's a long article. The scientists and authors don't feel it will be nearly so easy to manipulate these behaviors in humans as it is in voles. I'm not so sanguine, but they're the experts. We'll find out soon enough ...

Friday, February 13, 2004

Kerry and the babes

BBC NEWS | Americas | Kerry wins support from ex-rival
On Friday Senator Kerry dismissed a claim by an internet gossip site that he had had an affair with a female intern.

'Well there is nothing to report, so there is nothing to talk about,' he told MSNBC television. 'There's nothing there. There's no story.'

The gossip site is Drudge Report, and the rumor is that the "intern" was whisked off to Africa. This has to be gotten out now; the worry about Kerry has always been that he would have the Clinton problem (the rest of us don't have the temptations they have).

It doesn't matter what's right or wrong, private or public. What matters is beating Bush. An intern problem should rule Kerry out, so let's get at it now.

If Kerry is out, then is it Edwards? What's his history?

Or, with everything in flux and delegates floundering, time for another to enter the race? Someone who's been fully investigated and harassed and exposed?

No, Hilary can't win.

But Al won once. And Dean could still be a VP candidate ...

Bush: The Character Issues and the Campaign to Come

Krugman: The Real Man
There is, as far as I can tell, no positive evidence that Mr. Bush is a man of exceptional uprightness. When has he even accepted responsibility for something that went wrong? On the other hand, there is plenty of evidence that he is willing to cut corners when it's to his personal advantage. His business career was full of questionable deals, and whatever the full truth about his National Guard service, it was certainly not glorious.

I love Krugman's comment about the missing photo of Bush swimming the Yangtze River (Mao's old standard). Twenty-seven Bush photos in the Federal budget .... that's a cult of personality, reminescent of Reagan.

I don't think Bush is evil, but he's as dishonest as any President and a better liar than most. He also has been venerated (literally) by the evangelical right; they believe he has been anointed and appointed by God. To challenge Bush's integrity is to challenge either their understanding of God or to challenge God Himself.

It will be a very nasty campaign.

Thursday, February 12, 2004

Mob scams 200 million in small charges, shades of Netfill

Officials Say Mob Stole $200 Million Using Phone Bills
Officials Say Mob Stole $200 Million Using Phone Bills
By WILLIAM K. RASHBAUM, NYT
Published: February 11, 2004

Forget gambling, loan-sharking and labor racketeering. New York organized crime figures bilked millions of unsuspecting consumers out of more than $200 million over five years by piggybacking bogus charges on their telephone bills, federal authorities said yesterday.

The scheme, involving a network of companies stretching from Midtown Manhattan to Overland Park, Kan., marked what federal authorities believe was the first time organized crime figures have been charged with using the billing fraud known as 'cramming' to fill mob coffers.

The nationwide scheme was sophisticated, officials said, but the idea was simple: Callers responding to advertisements for free samples of services like psychic phone lines, telephone dating services and adult chat lines were unknowingly charged up to $40 a month on their phone bills for services they never requested and never used...

Small regular charges fraudulently placed in a hard-to-detect fashion across large numbers of victims. Shades of the NetFill scam of the late 90s, with which I had more than a passing acquaintance.

These scams work because the complexity and transaction volume of modern life exceeds the capacity of we mortals. They also work because the intermediaries typically don't suffer (in this case the phone companies, in related scams it's banks and credit card companies), so they're not strongly incented to implement costly security measures.

They'll only increase ...