Completely not secret numbers

So I'm scanning medlogs, and I see the combinations for those locks I posted -- on Gordon's Notes! Darned dementia. I was supposed to post them to our semi-secret family blog where I keep little tidbits like that.

Sorry.

Rebates -- and why I won't buy from Brother

I bought myself a Brother MFC-7820N multi-function device about 10 weeks ago. It's got some bugs, but on the whole I'm very pleased with it.

Even so, I won't buy from Brother again.

Why?

It came with a $50 rebate. I don't make buying decisions based on rebates, but this was enough money it was worth submitting. After 8 weeks I wrote the rebate site asking what had happened. No response. Now it's been 10 weeks. I don't have time to pursue this further.

I'm human though. And humans, as we know, are programmed to punish cheaters. It's a large part of what has made us a successful intensely social species. Brother cheated. Logically, since the device is worth more to me than what I paid for it, I should still recommend buying it. In this case though, I'll go with my biological imperative.

I won't buy from Brother again. Cheaters.

How I finally found a home for my maps

File this one under life's small victories.

I collect maps of places I've been. Roadmaps, place maps, city maps. Maps are my kind of souvenir; sentimental, compact, and useful. Some of the maps, like of the area of Bangkok I lived in 25 years ago, are of lost places. Now I take pictures to create persistent memories, but for much of my life I used maps.

Great, except I never knew how to store the buggers. I've used boxes and hanging files. Miserable failures. One day, however, I saw a shoe rack and thought that might work. I ended up buying a ClosetMaid "StackAShelf" SO25 25 cube storage organizer. At Target. Cheap.

The maps are a perfect fit. I file them by country outside of NA, and by Province or State in NA. Cities go into the state/province pile in alphabetic order. If I fill this stack, assuming I can find someone selling this thing, I can stack another atop it.

I am so pleased with this.

PS. Why the photo of the face of the assembly directions? I hate filing paper, but I'll stick this photo in my reference pile. It's sufficient resolution I can read the document. Faster than scanning. Sometime I'm going to post on my visual database of our attic storage.

The purgatory of the no fly list

James Moore is on the no fly list, and he can't get off. Ted Kennedy was on the same list, but he got off it. James probably has to call Ted's office.

There's supposed to be a form to submit to get off the list. This is terminally stupid.

Update 1/9/06: Ok, I'm suspicious now. I posted a comment pointing out the form to submit to deal with false inclusion on the watch list. It's been several days and the comment has not appeared. Hhhmmm. Maybe James likes something about this situation?

The Fermi Paradox: From the Edge question of the year

Edge likes to ask celebrity scholars questions. Last year it was the biggest idea you couldn't prove, this year it's "the most dangerous idea". I read through last year's. Some were good, some were dull. Mostly I thought the contributors were playing it safe.

I haven't read through this year's answers, I figured I'd let others do the work. Then I read somewhere that an evolutionary psychologist had dared to address my favorite topic -- The Fermi Paradox. One of the reasons I'm agnostic rather than atheistic is this paradox. Here's what Geoffrey Miller (looks terrifyingly young, but mostly I'm ancient) wrote:

GEOFFREY MILLER
Evolutionary Psychologist, University of New Mexico; Author, The Mating Mind

Runaway consumerism explains the Fermi Paradox

The story goes like this: Sometime in the 1940s, Enrico Fermi was talking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial intelligence with some other physicists. They were impressed that our galaxy holds 100 billion stars, that life evolved quickly and progressively on earth, and that an intelligent, exponentially-reproducing species could colonize the galaxy in just a few million years. They reasoned that extra-terrestrial intelligence should be common by now. Fermi listened patiently, then asked simply, "So, where is everybody?". That is, if extra-terrestrial intelligence is common, why haven't we met any bright aliens yet? This conundrum became known as Fermi's Paradox.

The paradox has become more ever more baffling. Over 150 extrasolar planets have been identified in the last few years, suggesting that life-hospitable planets orbit most stars. Paleontology shows that organic life evolved very quickly after earth's surface cooled and became life-hospitable. Given simple life, evolution shows progressive trends towards larger bodies, brains, and social complexity. Evolutionary psychology reveals several credible paths from simpler social minds to human-level creative intelligence. Yet 40 years of intensive searching for extra-terrestrial intelligence have yielded nothing. No radio signals, no credible spacecraft sightings, no close encounters of any kind.

So, it looks as if there are two possibilities. Perhaps our science over-estimates the likelihood of extra-terrestrial intelligence evolving. Or, perhaps evolved technical intelligence has some deep tendency to be self-limiting, even self-exterminating. After Hiroshima, some suggested that any aliens bright enough to make colonizing space-ships would be bright enough to make thermonuclear bombs, and would use them on each other sooner or later. Perhaps extra-terrestrial intelligence always blows itself up. Fermi's Paradox became, for a while, a cautionary tale about Cold War geopolitics.

I suggest a different, even darker solution to Fermi's Paradox. Basically, I think the aliens don't blow themselves up; they just get addicted to computer games. They forget to send radio signals or colonize space because they're too busy with runaway consumerism and virtual-reality narcissism. They don't need Sentinels to enslave them in a Matrix; they do it to themselves, just as we are doing today.

The fundamental problem is that any evolved mind must pay attention to indirect cues of biological fitness, rather than tracking fitness itself. We don't seek reproductive success directly; we seek tasty foods that tended to promote survival and luscious mates who tended to produce bright, healthy babies. Modern results: fast food and pornography. Technology is fairly good at controlling external reality to promote our real biological fitness, but it's even better at delivering fake fitness — subjective cues of survival and reproduction, without the real-world effects. Fresh organic fruit juice costs so much more than nutrition-free soda. Having real friends is so much more effort than watching Friends on TV. Actually colonizing the galaxy would be so much harder than pretending to have done it when filming Star Wars or Serenity.

Fitness-faking technology tends to evolve much faster than our psychological resistance to it. The printing press is invented; people read more novels and have fewer kids; only a few curmudgeons lament this. The Xbox 360 is invented; people would rather play a high-resolution virtual ape in Peter Jackson's King Kong than be a perfect-resolution real human. Teens today must find their way through a carnival of addictively fitness-faking entertainment products: MP3, DVD, TiVo, XM radio, Verizon cellphones, Spice cable, EverQuest online, instant messaging, Ecstasy, BC Bud. The traditional staples of physical, mental, and social development (athletics, homework, dating) are neglected. The few young people with the self-control to pursue the meritocratic path often get distracted at the last minute — the MIT graduates apply to do computer game design for Electronics Arts, rather than rocket science for NASA.

Around 1900, most inventions concerned physical reality: cars, airplanes, zeppelins, electric lights, vacuum cleaners, air conditioners, bras, zippers. In 2005, most inventions concern virtual entertainment — the top 10 patent-recipients are usually IBM, Matsushita, Canon, Hewlett-Packard, Micron Technology, Samsung, Intel, Hitachi, Toshiba, and Sony — not Boeing, Toyota, or Wonderbra. We have already shifted from a reality economy to a virtual economy, from physics to psychology as the value-driver and resource-allocator. We are already disappearing up our own brainstems. Freud's pleasure principle triumphs over the reality principle. We narrow-cast human-interest stories to each other, rather than broad-casting messages of universal peace and progress to other star systems.

Maybe the bright aliens did the same. I suspect that a certain period of fitness-faking narcissism is inevitable after any intelligent life evolves. This is the Great Temptation for any technological species — to shape their subjective reality to provide the cues of survival and reproductive success without the substance. Most bright alien species probably go extinct gradually, allocating more time and resources to their pleasures, and less to their children.

Heritable variation in personality might allow some lineages to resist the Great Temptation and last longer. Those who persist will evolve more self-control, conscientiousness, and pragmatism. They will evolve a horror of virtual entertainment, psychoactive drugs, and contraception. They will stress the values of hard work, delayed gratification, child-rearing, and environmental stewardship. They will combine the family values of the Religious Right with the sustainability values of the Greenpeace Left.

My dangerous idea-within-an-idea is that this, too, is already happening. Christian and Muslim fundamentalists, and anti-consumerism activists, already understand exactly what the Great Temptation is, and how to avoid it. They insulate themselves from our Creative-Class dream-worlds and our EverQuest economics. They wait patiently for our fitness-faking narcissism to go extinct. Those practical-minded breeders will inherit the earth, as like-minded aliens may have inherited a few other planets. When they finally achieve Contact, it will not be a meeting of novel-readers and game-players. It will be a meeting of dead-serious super-parents who congratulate each other on surviving not just the Bomb, but the Xbox. They will toast each other not in a soft-porn Holodeck, but in a sacred nursery.

Well, it's both affirming and disappointing. Affirming in that it's similar to the explanation I and many before me have come up with: it's a general property of all sentient organisms that they either become extinct or change to something that's not interested in roaming the galaxy. Virtual environments is only the most comprehensible of "post-singular" states that could account for a disinterest in physical travel.

It's disappointing in that it's not particularly original. Also, his 'resistant strain' idea doesn't make sense. If such resistance could emerge, even in 1/50 cultures, we wouldn't have the Fermi Paradox. I did, however, mention in my essay on the falling cost of havoc that religious fundamentalists might be instinctively struggling against a genuine transcendental threat -- the singularity.

I've also had the idea of resistant cultural strains in a different context. I've long been puzzled by the demographic transition -- why it is wealthy nations have fewer children. It seems so contraditory to our evolutionary programming. Whatever the explanation, I assumed that we'd evolve cultural groups that were immune to the anti-child effect of wealth -- Mormons for example. They'd eventually become the dominant group.

Check your dog food - or kill your dog

I pay attention to the papers, but I had no idea these brands of dog food had been recalled. Have I been asleep?

The food smelled and tasted bad to dogs, though most dog owners bypassed this by mixing more attractive foods. This changes the way I think about a dog losing interest in a favored food.

Dogs still dying

Even though [19 brands of] Diamond, Country Value and Professional brand dog foods have been recalled for containing highly toxic aflatoxins, they have caused at least 100 dog deaths in recent weeks, say Cornell University veterinarians, who are growing increasingly alarmed. Some kennels and consumers around the nation and possibly in more than two dozen other countries remain unaware of the tainted food, and as a result, they continue to give dogs food containing a lethal toxin.

... Currently, about two-thirds of dogs that show symptoms after eating the tainted food die.

'Entire kennels have been wiped out, and because of the holiday these past few weeks, the dispersal of recall information was disrupted...

Diamond has a web site listing all the brands. Not all are labeled "Diamond":

Diamond Premium Adult Dog Food
Diamond Hi-Energy Dog Food (Sporting Dog)
Diamond Maintenance Dog Food
Diamond Professional for Adult Dogs
Diamond Performance Dog Food
Diamond Puppy Food
Diamond Low Fat Dog Food
Diamond Maintenance Cat Food
Diamond Professional Cat Food
Country Value Puppy
Country Value Adult Dog Food
Country Value High Energy Dog Food
Country Value Adult Cat Food
Professional Chicken & Rice Adult Dog Food
Professional Puppy Food
Professional Large-Breed Puppy Food
Professional Reduced Fat Cat Food
Professional Adult Cat Food

Unless I heard very persuasive evidence that this company did everything perfectly, I would never buy anything from them again.

This was hard to figure out, even when a group of dogs were sickened all at once. I wonder how often less severe aflatoxin poisoning is missed. Human food preparation is not all that well regulated, one can only imagine the state of the pet food indutry. Maybe we really do need to start making our own pet food ...

Super Soaker wax removal

A super soaker, in the right hands, can be used to flush wax from an ear. In the wrong hands, one can imagine perforated drums, amazing otitis externa, obscure brain abscesses, etc. On the other hand, physicians with wax problems may be prone to experiment. The author used low pressure ....

The meaning of the $5 AM/FM clock radio

I bought a clock radio for the kids today. It was $5.00. I'd normally not bother with anything that cheap, but in this case all we wanted was a working, viewable clock. Also, I wanted to see what I got for $5.00.

Target : TruTech AM/FM Clock Radio - TCR1276
Big red LCD readout
Top snooze button is easily accessible
UL listed
2-1/4Hx5Wx5-4/5L"; 1.05 lbs.

It seems to work. Optional battery backup. As well laid out as any I've bought. Simple to use. Sounds better than it should. Comes in a solid cardboard box with some bubblewrap and directions (battery not included).

What does it mean that Target can sell an own-brand clock radio for $5.00? I'd have thought shipping, packaging, shelf-space, etc would eat up most of that. Did that radio cost $1 to manufacture?

So we see why the Fed has stopped raising interest rates ...

Connect the dots: Harpers on China, The Economist on GE

It's not all that hard to connect these two dots. The Economist reports that GE is making a huge bet on the importance of "green technologies":

The greening of General Electric | A lean, clean electric machine | Economist.com

NEXT month General Electric's corporate bosses will drop a bombshell on the hard-charging managers of its global businesses. In future they will be judged not only by all the usual measures, such as return on capital, that investors typically care about: they will also be held accountable for helping to save the planet.

Every GE business unit will have to cut its emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), the main greenhouse gas (GHG) behind global warming, by a different target.

... GE's new goal is to cut its overall GHG emissions by 2012 to 1% below their level in 2004. That might not sound ambitious, but if no climate policies are enacted, the company's projected revenue growth would increase its GHG emissions by 40% above 2004 levels.

... Jeffrey Immelt, GE's boss, is leading the effort himself, campaigning for it both inside and outside the company, as well as backing it with large amounts of new investment.

... Mr Immelt is so convinced that clean technologies will be the future of GE that, invoking the colour of American money, he has made his new mantra: “green is green”.

... The company vows to double its revenues from 17 clean-technology businesses, ranging from renewable energy and hydrogen fuel cells, to water filtration and purification systems, to cleaner aircraft and locomotive engines.

... Mr Immelt and other senior GE officials now publicly proclaim that global warming is real, and also call for American government regulations to deal with it.

... Back in the 1980s and 1990s, many blue-chip firms, ranging from DuPont and Dow to big French and British water companies such as Suez, forged into environmental services. Many were confidently predicting long-term double-digit growth and some invested heavily in developing-country markets.

Alas, by the late 1990s many of these firms had scaled back their investments...

Meanwhile, Harpers has published a long survey of China (emphases mine). It's sympathetic, bullish, and tries to avoid cliche and extreme simplification. Towards the end of the article it gets down to brass tacks (btw, multiply all numbers by 1.8 to include India and the rest of the industrializing world)...

Harpers: Scenes from China's Industrial Revolution

... It used to be said that the point of travel was to see your own home more clearly. So let's look. When you're standing in Shanghai, at the city's urban-planning exhibition, admiring the basketball-court-sized model of the city's future plan, with every skyscraper and apartment complex carefully detailed, you just viscerally know that there are two countries that really count right now. You just viscerally know that this is the story that will define the future. China and the United States are now the world's biggest consumers of raw material, and of food, and of energy. Are they therefore morally equivalent?

... Sometime between 2025 and 2030, China will pass the United States as the largest carbon emitter in the world - already it produces sixteen percent of the world's CO2 compared with our 25 percent. That is, they are now joining us in the task of undermining the planet's physics and chemistry.

... We have nearly the same number of cars as we have people. In China the number of automobiles is growing fast. But if the Chinese sell six million cars this year, that will be eleven million less than the United States - in a population more than four times as large.

In fact, the size of China's population queers every discussion of numbers.... Zhao Ang, my translator, has as much right to the sky as I do, which is to say as much right to a car or a big house. And measuring by people, in 2025 or 2030, when China passes the United States as the world's largest carbon emitter, the average Chinese will still be producing only a quarter as much carbon as the average American. And of course it goes deeper than that - the reason the atmosphere is filled to the danger point with carbon is because we've already been filling it for two centuries, burning coal and oil to get rich while the Chinese have been staying poor. As Ma Jun - a daring environmentalist who's taken big risks to write his books - told me one day, "Nearly eighty percent of the carbon dioxide has come from 200 years of the industrial world. Let's be realistic. Those historic burdens have to be shouldered by those countries that have enjoyed the benefits." In any just scheme, it's not morally required of the Chinese to help solve global warming, any more than it's your kids' responsibility to work out the problems in your marriage.

... it seems intuitively obvious when you're in China that the goal of the twenty-first century must somehow be to simultaneously develop the economies of the poorest parts of the world and undevelop those of the rich - to transfer enough technology and wealth that we're able to meet somewhere in the middle, with us using less energy so that they can use more, and eating less meat so that they can eat more.

... try to imagine the political possibilities in America of taking Chinese aspirations seriously - of acknowledging that there isn't room for two of us to behave in this way, and that we don't own the rights to our lifestyle simply because we got there first...

There's a rich history of mis-predicting ecological trainwrecks. Malthus got it wrong (ok, except for Rwanda where he got it right) because several breakthroughs in food production moved his collapse into the indefinite future. Worldwatch got it wrong yearly for the past 30 years because they way too confident about timelines (and thus earned both fame and infamy). If we do avoid this trainwreck, however, it will most likely be through new technologies -- not some dramatic enlightenment of the American (or European) troglodyte. GE is making a bet on a 5-20 year timeline in which those technologies will become fundamental.

I think it's a safe bet. If it doesn't pay off, market cap will be the least of our concerns.

Warren Buffet on the US trade deficit

Buffett wrote Squanderville versus Thriftville (Warren Buffet over a year ago. It's a good read. I'd like to see DeLong comment on it.

The spirit wanes -- the Onion

The Onion reports on America's return to baseline:

Important Christmas Lessons Already Forgotten | The Onion - America's Finest News Source

... The positive, soul-enriching sentiments associated with the holiday season are shared by almost all Americans, regardless of religious beliefs or cultural backgrounds,' Samuelson said. 'But it is only through our regular mean-spirited shallowness the rest of the year that the spirit of Christmas can, by contrast, move us so deeply, deluding the populace into thinking their lives are actually beautiful. If everybody behaved so kindly to one another all year round, Christmas wouldn't seem special at all. And then, the magic of Christmas would be lost forever, swallowed up by a year-round sense of basic human decency that would rob the holidays of their warm glow, ruining Christmas for all the little children of the world.'

Excellent! One of their better pieces.

bin Laden is dead (I think)

Another message from Zawahiri ...

BBC NEWS | Middle East | Al-Qaeda leader airs new message

.. Zawahiri is likely to have made the tape before Mr Bush gave his comments. Al-Jazeera says the video carried the date of the Muslim lunar month which ended in December.

Zawahiri is regarded as Osama Bin Laden's right-hand man. The two have evaded capture since US-led forces brought down the Taleban regime in Afghanistan in 2001 following the 9/11 attacks on the US.

I've believed for about a year that bin Laden was dead. It happens. He has lots of enemies, he's not young, he was rumored for a time to have kidney and/or vascular disease, he's been traveling rough. It's hard to believe a megalomaniac like him could be quiet for so long.

Maybe we ought to stop talking about capturing bin Laden and start talking about getting Zawahiri. I've long thought he was he was the more important of the two.

It pays to be a parasite: The cat

I've half-jokingly praised the parasitic brilliance of the dog. Arguably, however, dogs are symbiotes. We gave them our garbage, they cleaned the premises. Physically weak humans could ally with physically strong dogs, given evolution more playgrounds to tweak the mind.

Domestic cats, on the other hand, are pure[1] parasites:

DNA Offers New Insight Concerning Cat Evolution - New York Times

With each migration, evolutionary forces morphed the pantherlike patriarch of all cats into a rainbow of species, from ocelots and lynxes to leopards, lions and the lineage that led to the most successful cat of all, even though it has mostly forsaken its predatory heritage: the cat that has induced people to pay for its board and lodging in return for frugal displays of affection.

How did evolution shape the cat, so it was so able to prey so effectively upon human weaknesses? One clue (also from this week's NYT Science) is that human's are programmed to respond to anything resembling a helpless infant. Cats appear to have evolved to take advantage of that weak point.

One can only speculate on the alliance that evolution might build between cats and toxoplasma. It would make sense that toxoplasma, a rapidly evolving parasite, could alter the behavior of both cats and humans to further its own agenda ...

I do love ecology.

[1] Ok, so they killed rats, mice and other "vermin". Sigh. Guess they were symbiotes once too ...

The alternative to an American police state: The transparent society

Yesterday I wrote of the case for an American police state. I imagined that Cheney, reading a post 9/11 secret report on the falling cost of havoc, could have logically resolved that he was obligated to create a de facto police state in America.

I wrote that I was sympathetic to the dilemma faced by my imaginary VP, but that there were better paths that Cheney's secrecy had foreclosed. Maybe my virtual Cheney felt he had no choice -- that Americans weren't ready to think about the problems the anthrax attack and 9/11 exposed.

At the same time I wrote, David Brin, author of The Transparent Society (suddenly sold out on Amazon!), explored one of the alternatives (emphases mine):

Contrary Brin: Preventing Tyranny...part one

Unlike nearly every other opponent of the Bush Administration, I am far less incensed over their efforts -- through vehicles like the PATRIOT Act and the NSA -- to empower our paid protector caste (e.g. the FBI etc) with better access to wiretaps and other powers of surveillance. Their increased ability to see is inevitable, and not intrinsically worrisome. Indeed, in this new century, we will simply have to get used to the fact that elites will see very, very well. Get used to it.

But this need not be the end of freedom. What I hammer relentlessly is the point about reciprocal accountability -- that average citizens must fight, like demons, to retain our ability to look back! To ensure that the protector caste can never get away with spying or meddling or doing anything else unsupervised and unscrutinized by a citizenry who are both knowing and fiercely determined to the bosses of this civilization. To stay free.

Rather than focusing on a few rogue wiretaps, it is the Bushite frenzy for secrecy, dismantling every tool of accountability and oversight, that we should find far more terrifying.

The utter insanity of our situation cannot be over-emphasized. Ask ANY of your conservative friends what their reaction would have been, had Bill Clinton done 1/10 of any of these things. Take ANY ONE category. From busting the budget to relentless secrecy, demolition of our military readiness, torture, domestic spying, ruination of all our alliances, support for monopolies, the taking of bribes in exchange for pork contracts, interpreting every law as optional under the “Commander in Chief” clause, and utter destruction of international goodwill...

The comparison to Clinton is a distraction, but Brin's key point is that we cannot prevent ubiquitious surveilance. It's too late now, the technology to do this came far too fast for the bulk of mankind to understand it.

I am very troubled by this reality, by I have conceded that the falling cost of havoc alone probably requires us to live in a fishbowl. The challenge is -- can we both watched and free? Can we choose a 'transparent society' rather than a police state?

We can't return to the transient age of anonymity (at least in the physical world) -- that short period of urban and roaming life when people could be alone. The easy alternative, the alternative chosen by inaction, is Cheney/Bush's police state. The hard alternative is the Transparent Society. Unless you can think of something better ...

The consequences of NSA intercepts

Wild rumors circulate that the NSA intercepts targeted CNN's Christiane Amanpour: Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: A Riddle Inside a Mystery Wrapped in an Enigma.... Whether the rumors are true are not, it is a credit to the Bush legacy that they are certainly believable. The interesting parts John Aravosis posting (via DeLong) is the exploration of what it would mean to wiretap a well connected journalist.

One would learn a great number of things that might be of interest to various governmental bodies, none of which are criminal or immoral. Of course if one were investigating a major breach of national security, such as the leaking of the NSA's intercepts program, journalists would be the key figures to target. After all, by one or two degrees of separation it is certain they are connected to al Qaeda. (I met Reza Pehlavi in college, Reza must have met the younger bin Laden, therefore I'm connected to bin Laden. Bush, of course, must be deeply connected to bin Laden.)

Welcome to Bush's America.

Will journalists begin using high grade encryption in their everyday activities? I'm surprised high grade encryption is still legal ...