Coming to terms with failure: Iraq and the US government

There's an old cliche, partly true, about how people react to learning that they will die much sooner than expected. Disbelief, Denial, Anger, Struggle, Resignation, Acceptance is one way to put it (I don't remember the supposed stages and they're pretty varied anyway). With acceptance comes planning on how to make the best of a bad thing.

I think the right wingnuts are in the anger stage, but it sounds like the rulers are moving towards Resignation ...

The New Yorker: The Talk of the Town

... The government is in a strange and prolonged state of paralysis. Many officials in the Administration now admit, privately, and after years of willful blindness, that the war, in which almost twenty-four hundred Americans have died, and whose cumulative cost will reach $320 billion this year, is going badly and shows no prospect of a quick turnaround. Asked why the President doesn’t take this or that step to try to salvage what will become his legacy—fire his Secretary of Defense, for example—they drop their heads, as if to say: We know, he should, but it’s not going to happen. At the same time, they can’t quite bring themselves to abandon hope for a miracle.

Why have the New Yorker, Salon, The Atlantic and even The (non-editorial page) Wall Street Journal risen, even as The New York Times and The Economist have fallen?

The latest right wing war meme: we need to be more like Stalin

Obsidian wings identifies a meme worth tracking. The right wingnuts have now abandoned any pretense of "noble mission", "enabling democracy" and such-like and have returned to the old chestnut -- we have been weak and too merciful, we must become brutality unchained.

The sub-meme is that "we gave them their chance" (at democracy, presumably) but they were "undeserving". We have been "merciful", but they do not deserve our "mercy". Now we shall show our full power ... ("bwaa-ha-ha-haaaa ...")

Really, there is something to be said for all those comic books I read in the 1970s. Dr. Doom was particularly fond of this line of reasoning. Where's Reed Richards when we need him?

Pten and autism: a mouse study strengthens the connection

A mouse study strengthens the connection between a subtype of "autism" and the Pten gene: Be the Best You can Be: Pten gene knockout and "autistic" mice.

The first Arabic Internet and the virtues of selective taxation: The Abassid Caliphs

In Our Times was in peak form with their show on the Abassid Caliphs. When the Vikings were asail, Baghdad was new, and Basra was buzzing the Abassids ruled Iraq's empire. They created the first "western" revolution in communication -- paper from China and a well maintained system of transporting and routing paper-based documents.

Wealth from the rich fertile lands of irrigated Iraq. Communication technologies that allowed government to scale, and education to be expanded. A system of taxation that turned Zoroastrians, Jews and Christians from annoying unbelievers to a steady stream of revenue; in essence non-Muslims paid for tolerance and thus incented tolerance. Economics, technology, surplus, education, tolerance, good governance -- that's how a Golden Age is made.

Or unmade.

This is good listening, particularly if one uses Audio Hijack Pro and RealAudio client to capture the audio stream for iPod replay on the morning commute. IOT does podcast their new shows, but to put the archives on an iPod one has to capture the stream and digitize it. I need to put a page together on how to do that, but for now the AHP manual does a decent job.

I was wrong: we are not pathetic

I wrote:

Gordon's Notes: A conspiracy for fantasy: Moussaoui

...Richard Reid, that sad retarded schizophrenic, was to have been the copilot with Moussaoui. It's the perfect note of mocking hilarity for the musical that will be written about the trial and execution.

Our national state is now passing pathetic.

Today a jury proved me wrong. We are not pathetic.

Seven days of deliberation, and they decided this evil, mentally ill and deluded man (is he lying if he believes his delusions?) did not meet the legal standard for execution. This jury deserves a medal for restoring some honor to America.

Update 5/4/06: Hmm. From what I read of the jury deliberations so far we may not be pathetic, but we are seriously confused. They believed that he was to fly with Richard Reid? My impression has been that no-one of significance in our security forces actually believes that the old al Qaeda would have been stupid enough to try something with Reid and Moussaoui. Now is a different story, al Qaeda seems to be scraping up anything they can find. Ahh, one should not trust initialreports! The BBC says the decision was not unamimous, and in particular ...

Three jurors felt his knowledge of the 9/11 plot was limited and three jurors said that if he was involved in the attacks, his role was a minor one.

Ahh, yes. That's more like it. Among the jury, there were three rationalists, and that was more than enough. Praise be.

Update 5/4/06: Or not. I give up.

Come on. Try to say this isn't great stuff ...

I really do need to watch television:

Stephen Colbert's Correspondents' Dinner routine. By Troy Patterson

... Colbert spoke of interviewing Jesse Jackson: 'You can ask him anything, but he's going to say what he wants, at the pace that he wants. It's like boxing a glacier. Enjoy that metaphor, by the way, because your grandchildren will have no idea what a glacier is.'

Ouch!

I laughed ...

I can't believe the press corp didn't think this was funny:

After Press Dinner, the Blogosphere Is Alive With the Sound of Colbert Chatter - New York Times

... many others were met with near silence. In one such instance, he criticized reporters for likening Mr. Bush's recent staff changes to 'rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.' 'This administration is not sinking,' Mr. Colbert said; 'this administration is soaring. If anything, they are rearranging the deck chairs on the Hindenburg.'

I never get to watch TV, but if I could I'd be Tivoing Colbert from now on.

Dogs enabled human civilization?

A NYT science writer suggests that dogs domesticated a notoriously viscious primate:

Nicholas Wade's book "Before the Dawn" - From Genghis Khan To Donor 401:

... Maybe the best news in the book is the finding that dogs were essential to the creation of modern civilization. If human beings were to cease being nomads, they had to be secure when they settled down. (After all, enemies would always know where to find them.) Dogs became trusty sentinels, which is why they, and not the wolves from which they descended, bark. It was a trait early man valued and probably selected for. The question remains, though: Did man domesticate the dog or did dogs figure out what man wanted and do the job themselves? Anyone who has ever owned a dog instinctively knows the answer.

Hmmph. I wrote previously:

Sometime I must write about my not- entirely-in-fun theory that dogs created civilization by allowing women and geeks to defend themselves against the alpha male.

My theory, heretofore passed on verbally only to my spouse and long suffering friends, was that civilization required geeks and women to ally against the muscle-bound alpha males. Problem is, how do you go up against someone that can rip you apart? One technique is to ally with a sharp toothed friend. Why do you think single women walk with furry partners?

Slate on sewers: poo and more

Slate is featuring a a series on human waste, inevitably titled 'The Wasteland'. No, it's not about politics, it's about sewers and toilets. It's fascinating. I hope London will start offering tours ...

Tentative progress against glioma

I know of two friends of mine, both exemplary individuals with young families, who've died young from glioma. It can be a difficult death, with incremental disability as the surgeons fight a delaying action against the ever-growing tumor. A nasty illness.

So any good news attracts my personal attention, even something as preliminary as this announcement. It may not turn into anything that's clinically relevant; these small trials are infamous for showing dramatic results that turn out to be illusory. It's noteworthy though for the text I've bolded below:

BBC NEWS | Health | Hope for new brain tumour vaccine

US researchers say their vaccine increased survival times for the 23 glioblastoma multiforme patients they tested it on by at least 18 months.

Only four patients went on to die from the cancer, the study to be presented at a meeting of experts in the US said.

... works by targeting a protein thought to drive the tumour's spread...

It uses an artificial form of the protein, which is found on the outside of 30-50% of tumours, to alert the immune system to its presence and attack it.

The brain is tricked into thinking the protein, known as EGFRvIII, is foreign, and fighter cells in the immune system are sent in.

Amy Heimberger, assistant professor of neurosurgery at the MD Anderson Cancer Center in Texas, said the vaccine was an easy-to-use "off-the-shelf" treatment that could potentially help half of all patients with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM).

She said results from the trial showed the vaccine significantly delays the progression of tumours until the cancer finds a new way to grow.

... when tumours did grow again they did not display the EGFRvIII protein

When I was a medical student in 1982 there was great excitement about using immunotherapy to fight cancer. Alas, it almost all failed, though I think there was limited success with some type of melanoma. The fact that the gliomas broke free in this study only after by suprressing this key protein is what makes this result interesting and more plausible than most. There's hope that a combination of modalities might result in real progress -- maybe years of good quality survival and possibly the occasional cure ...

So how did the ultrarich manage to conceal their role in repealing the estate tax?

It's not surprising that the ultrarich should wish to repeal the estate tax. It's impressive how well they were able to conceal their role.

Maybe the Heirs Aren't Apparent - New York Times

THE watchdog group Public Citizen (citizen.org) and the advocacy group United for a Fair Economy (faireconomy.org) issued a report this week saying that 18 superwealthy families are largely responsible for financing the lobbying campaign aimed at repealing the estate tax; the Senate is scheduled to take up repeal next month.

The families, worth $185.5 billion, have financed and coordinated the campaign and have, until now, managed to hide their participation behind the trade associations and business groups they have formed to represent their interests, Public Citizen reported. The families include those behind some of the nation's biggest and best-known companies, like Wal-Mart, E.& J. Gallo Winery, Nordstrom and Koch Industries.

I wonder how many GOP races they funded in the last election? They don't have to bribe anyone directly, they just have to make sure their friends get into the House, Senate and White House.

The interesting question is how they managed to conceal their role so effectively. What else is this group up to that we don't know about? Are there any journalists left outside Salon and the Wall Street Journal? (Hello, NYT, anyone home?) The place to start is to think what else this group would care about, then look for odd infusions of cash, then trace the cash back. For them a $10 million "gift" is chump change. That's enough to buy a bunch of US Senators.

The hidden inflation of low quality

We have two DVD/VCR combo devices at home. One has a broken VCR, the other a broken DVD. They each cost about $120 and lasted about 18 months.

We once bought a VCR for about $250 that lasted five years. We had a CD player that lasted 12 years, in today's dollars it probably cost $550 or so.

So prices have fallen by at least half, but lifespans have fallen by about 3/4. The cost of ownership has risen significantly.

I wonder if that shows up in our inflation statistics, or do they just measure the cost of purchase?

Update 6/30/2013: Economists do write about this. I found this reference in notes from Baylor.edu in the context of price controls.

D.      Countries that exercise price controls experience:
1.      Open, reported inflation - Occurs because not all prices are controlled or because planners increase prices.
2.      Hidden inflation - Monetary price increases, but not measured.
a.      Hidden transactions - black market or "under the table"
b.      Hidden quality deterioration, false quality improvement, or forced substitution of high-quality for low-quality products
3.      Repressed inflation - Occurs when price controls are effective, and inflationary pressure causes shortages or queues.

I thought of this again when Emily tried to buy our children a 'slip and slide' water toy. It cost $5, it leaked, and Target won't accept returns (obviously, if they accepted returns they could not sell these toys).

Searching Amazon, all of these devices had 2-3 star ratings due to leaks; there was nothing available at any price that was reliable. In Akerlof's words "Only lemons are on offer". On the other hand, we could buy 4 of the $5 toys and probably one would work. If our time cost nothing, and waste disposal were free, that would be the equivalent of a $20 toy (right price).

We don't have price controls, but we do have severe worldwide deflationary pressures -- probably related to global wealth concentration. They may be having the same effect as price controls, at least when it comes to quality.

See also:

• Gordon's Notes: Emergence, unanticipated consequences, and hidden inflation 5/2007
• Gordon's Notes: What if ours were a crisis of currency and quality? 3/2009. Pencil sharpener test.
• Gordon's Notes: Apple's battery charger, occult inflation, and the future of American industry 2010 rant. I think, overall, things are a bit better.
• Gordon's Notes: Why quality collapsed in the bubble years: Akerlof and the last good toaster 3/2012. How it can be that only lemons are available.

An unwanted gift from Windows Update

I have my XP update configured to auto-download, but not to auto-install. I have to authorize the updates. I do this mostly so I can choose when to reboot, I've always authorized them.

Until today. That's when the update included this gem:

Windows Genuine Advantage
Size: 0.8 MB

The Windows Genuine Advantage Notification tool notifies you if your copy of Windows is not genuine. If your system is found to be a non-genuine, the tool will help you obtain a licensed copy of Windows.

Hmph. That's a nice gift. I hear WGA either does Office checking now or will soon.

Ethically I make an exception for Microsoft when it comes to stealing software. An illegal monopoly, paying the Bushies in return for a wrist slap, using the monopoly to perpetuate things like Microsoft Word -- heck, steal away you rogues you.

Practically, however, I'm not personally going to take the risk of running unlicensed Microsoft products. I use as little of their stuff as possible, but my licenses are clean. All the same, I'm going to wait and see when Microsoft will require WGA to get security updates. I figure that date is about two months away. I'll install then.

I'm so looking forward to replacing my XP box with an OS X environment that will virtualize Windows. I'll use my old Office and my old XP until their bits rot away ...

We really need to encourage Ann Coulter

Ann Coulter uses sexual innunendo to taunt adolescent males to attack protesters. I love it. She's so stupid, and so wrong, that she's walking performance art. With just a bit of a push she might go right over the edge.

It's the duty of every rationalist and humanist to encourage Ann to go just a bit further ... I don't think she'll hurt herself (or I wouldn't be advising this), but she's going to start doing some serious harm to her causes ...

Hookers, spies and the GOP

If the GOP hadn't sold their soul for power I'd almost feel sorry for the party. Duke Cunningham, a GOP stalwart convicted of accepting bribes, is a fallen hero -- but now his fall is looking ever more impressive...

Obsidian Wings: Girls!! Girls!! Girls!!

...according to people with knowledge of the investigation, Mr. Wade told investigators that Mr. Cunningham periodically phoned him to request a prostitute, and that Mr. Wade then helped to arrange for one. A limousine driver then picked up the prostitute as well as Mr. Cunningham...

...I've learned from a well-connected source that those under intense scrutiny by the FBI are current and former lawmakers on Defense and Intelligence comittees—including one person who now holds a powerful intelligence post. I've also been able to learn the name of the limousine service that was used to ferry the guests and other attendees to the parties: Shirlington Limousine and Transportation of Arlington, Virginia. Wilkes, I've learned, even hired Shirlington as his personal limousine service.

It gets even more interesting: the man who has been identified as the CEO of Shirlington has a 62-page rap sheet (I recently obtained a copy) that runs from at least 1979 through 1989 and lists charges of petit larceny, robbery, receiving stolen goods, assault, and more. Curiously—or perhaps not so curiously given the company's connections—Shirlington Limousine is also a Department of Homeland Security contractor; according to the Washington Post, last fall it won a $21.2 million contract for shuttle services and transportation support...

As to the festivities themselves, I hear that party nights began early with poker games and degenerated into what the source described as a "frat party" scene—real bacchanals. Apparently photographs were taken, and investigators are anxiously procuring copies.

The rumor is that this "senior official" has been suspected in Washington circles of leading a bit of a double life. If you want to know the name you'll have to visit the site. My morals allow me to point, but not to repeat.

If there are photos, this will be both terrible and irresistible.