Paradigm: banned by Nature

Marvelous. Nature (the journal) gets many taste points:

Rapped on the Head by Creationists | Cosmic Variance:

... Did you know that Nature has an editorial policy forbidding the use of the words “scenario” and “paradigm”? Neither did I, but it’s true ...

Did Colonel Petrov save our world?

It's an old story (2003), and I've heard variations on it before, but the story of Colonel Petrov is worth a read. The allegation is that a Soviet computer error triggered a false alert pm 9/26/83, but rather than notify superiors (who might have launched the Soviet arsenal -- or decided the alert was an error), Colonel Petrov decided on his own initiative that the alarm was false. It was.

If you want to look for supernatural intervention, forget about intelligent design. Look to our having survived the 1980s. It seems unlikely, even in retrospect ...

Could ultrasound predispose vulnerable fetuses to neuronal migration disorders?

Be the Best You can Be: Ultrasound, neuronal migration, and autism

The day the software died - my worm and the end of the second golden age of the PC

Within a day of downloading two sharware webcam products [1] for testing with my new LifeCam I found my XP box running hot and minimally responsive. Bad feeling time.

Since Norton Antivirus, which does a full disk scan of my system every night, hadn't alarmed I tried the very latest version Microsoft's free utility for worm detection. It found nothing on the standard scan, but a deep scan and clean reported "partial removal" of W32/Mytob-W or some novel variant thereof. A follow-up NAV scan found nothing, but I will repeat with updated viral definitions and then migrate to Microsoft's new security product. This is my 3rd infection in about 17 years; one was with Win98, one with Mac OS 9 (yes!), and then this.

I will now, with less vanity than it appears, declare the end of the 2nd era of personal computing -- The Day the Music (Software) Died. It's dead. Put a fork in it.

The first Golden Age, from 1982 to 1998 was a time of amazingly creative software built on minimal resources. The first Golden Age died with the Microsoft monopoly.

The second Golden Age began with Gopher in the early 1990s and probably ended around 1999. The networked power of the second era, combined with the monoculture of the Microsoft monopoly, carried the seeds of its own destruction. When uber-geeks like me [3] are afflicted by worms and massive quantities of spam, the end is in the rear view mirror.

What will the third era look like? I think there are two paths, and we'll take both of them. One is the 'trusted computing' path of locked down software and a complex chain of control, combined with a move to software leasing and web services. Microsoft will lead this path.

The second is the trusted community path together with strong reputation management and coupled with open source and public file formats.

These paths are the Authoritarian state and the Citizen state. Sparta and Athens [3]. We've walked these roads before.

In the meantime what new measures will I take?

1. I'll abandon Norton and switch to Microsoft's security package. I think that if one is going to run XP there's really no alternative to Microsoft for antivirus and security protection. They have the incentive, the resources, and the expertise to provide the best possible service. [4]
   
   
2. I'll accelerate the migration of my last remaining XP machine to an OS X replacement [5].
   
   
3. I'll install a hardware router/firewall with traffic analysis, automated shutdown and alerting to support early detection and termination of problems.
   
   
4. I'll no longer download software from the websites of owner/authors. Instead I'll download from versiontracker and other community sites where risk is broadly shared and feedback identifies problems.
   

Other measures to be added here ...

[1] No, I'm not doing icky stuff, it's for the most boring and dull work you can imagine. It's a good thing I tested this at home however. I downloaded the products, one of which I'd registerd for an earlier failed project, from the author's sites. I thought that and Norton Antivirus was a reasonable combination, but I was probably wrong. I didn't bother to prove the sites were the source however, so I won't name them. The evidence is circumstantial.

It's even a bit hard to say that this really is a new event. I've gotten worms and spam from "myself" for years, but when I've investigated I found spammers were forging my address. So I wouldn't necessarily spot a worm infection ...

[2] Sure there are more XP security measures one could take. Internal and external firewall and traffic analysis, better antiviral solutions, etc. My XP machine already strains under the weight of its current security infrastructure.

[3] Ok, it's a cliche and a gross simplification. Athens was hardly pure.

[4] I know Microsoft has been performing lately like a corporation on Crack. I didn't say they'd do well.

[5] OS X is more secure than XP because it allows users to work successfully in non-admin accounts. It's also more secure because the OS X community is far more interactive and reputation based than the XP community, the difference between a village and a city. Lastly, and most obviously, OS X machines are very expensive to acquire and have limited use in business; kids and crooks will target XP first. Of these distinctions only the first is likely to persist, and if Apple doesn't publish its own security solution soon OS X will be in deep trouble.

Obesity, nutrition facts and corrupted government

Act One: Obese senator decries the sorry state of American's children.

Act Two: Nutrition Facts on Tortilla Chips package

Serving Size: 11 chips
Servings per container: 2 3/4
Calories per serving: 150

Background:

1. It's likely that fewer than 1/10 Americans can multiply 2.75 * 150 to figure out how many calories this bag contains (about 415).
   
2. This bag is likely most often consumed by one person at one sitting -- with cheese dip.
   
3. In the US "Nutrition Facts" are a federal mandate.

Ergo one may deduce:

1. The federal government is exceedingly corrupt, as well as incidentally hypocritical.
   

I probably don't need to explain how this inferential chain to my eccentric readership, but for the record the trick of displaying calories per serving on a label, and then declaring that a single user package has a non-integer serving size > 1, is an obviously evil attempt to hide how caloric content. That's fine, the market demands evil. It's the obvious political corruption that's more noteworthy.

Why corruption? The proof of corruption is that the fix for this fraud is simply to require that the "Nutrition Facts" also display the Calories per container. This fix has never been made. It's the absence of the obvious fix that proves the corruption.

We are getting the government we deserve, and evidently we've been really, really, bad.

Old skate parts, Google, and the walk to school

When I was a boy we had to fight the wolves and the blizzards on our 19 mile walk to school. That was before global warming, before the Twin Cities became the Riviera of the midwest.

Also when I was a boy we couldn't just Google on "Salomon TR parts" and find a source for a missing bolt from an inline skate that was last manufactured in 1998.

Sigh. I thought I'd get a new pair of skates out of that lost bolt. (BTW, the next time I buy skates, I'll also buy a set of parts. Skates are nowhere near as standard as they used to be.)

PS. Skates.com offered Google Checkout. The first time I used Checkout with Firefox there was a minor glitch, but this try was delightful. Checkout keeps my email address confidential, giving the vendor a disposable address that routes to my gmail account. Checkout also keeps all my receipts and I can view the order status on that page as well. Very much as expected -- a direct assault on Amazon.com.

Guiding executives with mutual deception - Dilbert scores

Dilbert scores. My friend Andrew had to teach me this years ago, though it's self-evident to most people:

Dilbert (Scott Adams) 8/5/06

In order to make an informed decision, you would need to know as much as I know.

That's impossible, so instead, by mutual, implied agreement, I will feed you some lies that point you to the right decision...

This should be employee orientation item one for every engineer, scientist, geek and autistic person joining a commercial enterprise. All of this tribe share a dangerous compulsion to tell the most complete truth they know, but in truth only a fellow expert wants the entire story. It's really not that interesting.

A smart boss may want a plausible story they can use, or they may want the 'freshman physics' version -- a story that's "useful" albeit grossly incomplete, or both. Sometimes the 'market story' and the 'freshman physics' story are the same, sometimes different. In all cases the "deception" is by implied understanding.

There's more to this, but my elder son is impatient right now ...

Exxon pays for fake Gore spoof

The Wall Street Journal, home to both whackjob editorial pages and the nation's best journalists, exposes the author of a fake
Al Gore Spoof. It's DCI Group, a Washington lobbying firm used by Exxon.

Idiots. I so hope John Stewart picks this one up.

I nominate Molly Ivins to the Order of the Shrill

ShrillBlog needs to welcome Molly Ivins into the tentactular realm of the Shrill.

True, she is a classic old school journalist, someone who used to make an effort to be balanced, to make her critiques witty, to keep a sense of humor and balance. She used to be an optimist. In those days she didn't qualify.

She does now. It is time to welcome Molly.

Apocalypse August: I miss so much by not watching TV

I don't watch TV. No time. So I have no clue what's happening out there, except when someone blogs about John Stewart paraphrasing TV. (He's brilliant. Thank you John Stewart. Too bad I only see him in pixellated video streams.) Now I'm up to date.

Huh? America's plastic faced TV anchors are talking about armageddon?

This nation is crackers. The Stewart clip, however, is a masterpiece. Please watch it if you haven't.

Is there no middle ground in America?

Reading Krugman directly costs $50 a year. Happily, some bloggers are routing around the NYT paywall -- at least until the lawyers arrive.

Here Liberal Journal reposts a Krugman column. His thesis -- the middle ground is gone.

The Liberal Journal: Krugman

... those who cling to the belief that politics can be conducted in terms of people rather than parties — a group that also includes would-be centrist Democrats like Joe Lieberman and many members of the punditocracy — are kidding themselves.

The fact is that in 1994, the year when radical Republicans took control both of Congress and of their own party, things fell apart, and the center did not hold. Now we’re living in an age of one-letter politics, in which a politician’s partisan affiliation is almost always far more important than his or her personal beliefs. And those who refuse to recognize this reality end up being useful idiots for those, like President Bush, who have been consistently ruthless in their partisanship.

Krugman gives several examples of GOP allies that now support policies that are clearly against their core interests, presumably because they believe the GOP will support their agenda better in the future -- or that the alternative is worse.

I think Krugman is correct that the overall direction of the GOP is such that no GOP candidate should ever be supported -- no matter how excellent they may be personally. This is sad, but Lincoln Chaffee will do enormous harm, regardless of his personal interests, if he keeps Bill Frist in power.

I don' t know of the middle-ground is truly gone from all aspects of US politics. There might be a place for a Clinton-style centrist president for example. Or maybe not.

It's been noted (Krugman?) that historically US politics was very partisan, and that bipartisanship may have been an artifact of post-WW II income compression. The split of US incomes into the flat middle and the ascendant extreme may have thus ended bipartisanship.

Accelerando, Stross, Google, Amazon, Copyright and DRM: a deleted review and a scary collision ...

Ok, I need less coffee. It looks like I retitled my seemingly missing review at some point. Google's Blogger search displayed the old title, but retitling breaks Blogger links. So the Google search returned nothing and I falsely assumed my review had been silently deleted due to an automated comparison between the review on Amazon and the review in Blogger.

So then I tried to correct my error and found Blogger had crashed.

So false alarm. Google's recent misidentification of my blogs as splogs has definitely aggravated any incipient paranoid features.

I wrote a review of Charles Stross book Accelerando and posted it to Blogger [1]. I then put the same review on Amazon where it could be more widely read. Today I went looking for the review. It has vanished from Blogger. It will be interesting to see if this post vanishes too. …

Social networks and the expected implications of exponential growth

Orkut is huge - in Brazil. Nowhere else I think. Myspace is humungous, growing from nothing to everywhere in no time at all.

That's exponential growth. One day there's one lily pad on the pond, a few weeks later the pond is half full, a day later it's full. The last doubling is the big one.

It's fascinating. Why does one network take off and another founder? What makes a movie a hit, or a toy "hot"? Why do some diseases simmer in the Heart of Darkness and others make it to Hollywood? Why does one primate inherit the earth (for now) and all the others die?

There's a fascinating mixture of determinism and contingency. Sure the primate had some handy features, but evolution could have taken a very different course. Orkut in Brazil and MySpace in the US had a combination of both value and serendipity that let them grow. (Survival, of course, is another matter.)

Is LinkedIn doing the same thing? LinkedIn is a snotty "exclusive" (hah!) network that seeks to amplify and extend social networks among "executive" (double-hah) types. Believe me, any club that has me as a member is neither exclusive nor executive. What catches my attention, however, is the rapid growth.

A friend (Jacob) sent me an invitation a few months ago, and since I respect his judgment I decided to play with it. I invited my wife. Then my alma mater invited all alumni and students to join up. Yesterday I received two separate invitations to join at an address unconnected to my existing account.

Clearly LinkedIn is now past the inflection point of the exponential curve. A few more doublings and my dog will be getting invitations (hmmm. No reason I couldn't give Kateva an email address and a resume ...).

It will be interesting to see where it goes next and how the stream is monetized. At the moment it is a handy way to keep in touch. They do limit invitations but if you're a friend/family and you want one just email me ...

Life on the net is making the exponential a familiar phenomena to many people ...

Update 8/4/06: I just got my first invitation to connect from a corporate recruiter. Ok, so now I see one way they'll monetize this -- the recruiters will sign up for a lot of expensive value added services. I made the connection -- the recruiters I know are smart and careful types who don't waste time. Of course if they abuse the connection I'll remove it. It will indeed be interesting to see how this evolves. The 21st century is all about identity, reputation and reputation management. (Credit to Charles Stross from writing about this quite well in Accelerando.)

Kansas returns to Reason

The infamous Kansas State Board of Education is once again in the hands of Rationalists. The election was fought in large part over whether natural selection was a well accepted scientific principle. I am pleasantly surprised to discover that the citizens of Kansas agreed that natural selection is fundamental to modern biology and deserves a place of prominence in science ducation. On the other hand Creationism/ID does not belong on the science curriculum.

I would, however, allow mention of 'design' as one of the solutions to the infamous Fermi Paradox. Of course the FP is not usually taught in high school.

The GOP votes to ban the Internet (from Libraries)

The GOP run House of Representatives has made it illegal to use most of Internet in a library ...

Good Morning Silicon Valley: All in favor of hysteria, panic and misinformation, say "aye"

Given the recent outcry over MySpace, I suppose I shouldn't be surprised that the U.S. House passed the Deleting Online Predators Act (DOPA) with an overwhelming majority. But I can certainly be disappointed. With a 410-15 vote (410-15!!!) Thursday, politicians approved the bill, which will block access to social networks and Internet chat rooms in most federally funded schools and libraries....

...Here's how DOPA defines social networking sites:

(i) is offered by a commercial entity;
(ii) permits registered users to create an on-line profile that includes detailed personal information;
(iii) permits registered users to create an on-line journal and share such a journal with other users;
(iv) elicits highly-personalized information from users; and
(v) enables communication among users.

Great work, Congress, you've just barred anyone who depends upon their local libraries for access to the Web from viewing eBay, Yahoo, MSN, AOL and Amazon.

I think they've also banned the upper-crust corporate-focused LinkedIn social network. Would a Democrat dominated House do something this stupid?

I admit I can't prove they wouldn't, and a lot of Democrats voted for this. On the other hand, I suspect they voted for it in self-defense (imagine the ads -- my commie opponent supports pedophilia!). I would, however, like to know the 15 representatives possessed of both safe seats and a positive IQ.

I'll bet a Democrat controlled House would not have done this. Think of that next time you get to vote ...