Tuesday, November 04, 2008

I'll take it anyway

For better or for worse ...
Nation Finally Shitty Enough To Make Social Progress | The Onion
... Today Americans have grudgingly taken a giant leap forward,' Williams continued. 'And all it took was severe economic downturn, a bloody and unjust war in Iraq, terrorist attacks on lower Manhattan, nearly 2,000 deaths in New Orleans, and more than three centuries of frequently violent racial turmoil.'
Said Williams, 'The American people should be commended for their long-overdue courage.'"...
I'll take it.

Google News, NYT Nov 4, 2008, Doonesebury


and

and I thought Gary Trudeau did very well ...

Watching Obama

Tonight.

Impossible.

It's more likely I'm hallucinating. In a coma somewhere. Trapped in a virtual reality ...

Cannot be real.

Update: Post-Obama speech. Damn, I'm happy. This is one astounding President. I never knew he was so good. I didn't have to know, since the alternative was so bad.

Fabulous picture

november-4-2008.jpg

And now ...

Thank you America.

What lies ahead?

The reform of the GOP. In his very gracious concession speech McCain assigned Palin to engage in the reform of the GOP. I wouldn't choose the same champion, but the key is the "reform" word.

The discovery that Obama is very much like Bill Clinton, but with far more self-discipline. This will come as a relief to intelligent republicans, and no surprise to any democrat who's been paying attention.

Thank you America

I wasn't just indulging in superstition.

I didn't believe this was possible: Barack Obama: 44th President of the USA.

Virginia. Florida. Iowa. Ohio.

Landslide.

Impossible.

Obama. Even I have to be careful not to slip and say "Osama".

Barack Hussein Obama.

Inconceivable.

Thanks men and women.

NPR's iconic picture - election 2008

Next to NPR's 10pm status report from Chicago ...
I can't find a photographer credit.

Used without permission of course.

I am sure McCain will win

I needed to say that.

At least one more time.

Must ... hold on ... to despair...

Must not ... succumb to ... hope ...

Manassas

It wasn't that long ago.
Tired Obama addresses huge Virginia crowd at final campaign rally | World news | guardian.co.uk

... After securing the Democratic nomination in the summer, he chose to begin his presidential election campaign in Bristol, Virginia. At the time, it seemed a quirky choice, with the state apparently solid Republican.

But he is in with more than a chance of taking Virginia today and so made it his last campaign stop with the rally in Manassas, a quiet town now but the scene of one of the bloodiest battles of the civil war.

To take Virginia would be rich in symbolism. Obama acknowledged as much last night when he referred to Richmond, Virginia, as "the capital of the Old Confederacy". He said he found it extraordinary that 100,000 people in the state had come out to see him on a Monday night.

John McCain attracted only 8,000 when he held a rally on the other side of Manassas a fortnight ago. The Republican stood on his tiptoes to wave at the expected crowd at the back, only to find there wasn't any...
I'd forgotten he chose to begin in Virginia. Win or lose, Barack Obama is a wonder.

Monday, November 03, 2008

A concise summary of modern American politics

An impressively concise summary of the past fifty years of American politics, including how the party of Lincoln inherited the Democrats legacy of racism, ends with a summary of the cultural stakes ...
Sasha Abramsky (Guardian.co.uk): The election could end the south's race-based politics

...In the last few days, Pennsylvania - one of only two Democratic states from the 2004 election thought to be within McCain's reach - has been flooded by television ads once again seeking to correlate Obama to the inflammatory preacher Jeremiah Wright. Palin supporters have been filmed holding toy monkeys with Obama signs on them at her rallies. And a miasma of racist rhetoric hangs over much of the campaigning by local Republican party operatives in many southern states...

We'll shortly know whether these tactics worked. If they did, it will be a cultural catastrophe...

... If democracy is simply a competition of ideas varnished by a sense of personal charm evinced by its lead figures, Obama's the next president. But democracy is more than that. Unfortunately, tribalism has a powerful hold on the process. A significant number of people - despite an unprecedented year-long national conversation about race and culture and American identity - still have a gut-check problem with voting for a black man.

If McCain wins, tribalism wins. The southern gamble, that race will always remain central to the nation's political decision-making process, that race will always trump economic common sense, pays off. And the American dream takes a rabbit punch to the kidneys that will take decades to recover from.

If Obama wins, however, taking some southern states and bringing enough new voters to the polls that several Senate seats in the region also go blue, then at long last the possibility of a truly post-racial political system comes one enormous step closer to fruition.

The stakes couldn't possibly be any higher.
But they are higher ...

Goldwater for Obama? Try this endorsement on any conservatives you know.

Know any rational conservatives?

Maybe they're considering writing in a rational republican like Olympia Snowe?

Try this endorsement on them. It's written by a man who was once publisher of the National Review, and who is still an intellectual conservative ...
A Conservative for Obama | D Magazine - Wick Allison

... Barack Obama is not my ideal candidate for president. (In fact, I made the maximum donation to John McCain during the primaries, when there was still hope he might come to his senses.) But I now see that Obama is almost the ideal candidate for this moment in American history. I disagree with him on many issues. But those don’t matter as much as what Obama offers, which is a deeply conservative view of the world. Nobody can read Obama’s books (which, it is worth noting, he wrote himself) or listen to him speak without realizing that this is a thoughtful, pragmatic, and prudent man. It gives me comfort just to think that after eight years of George W. Bush we will have a president who has actually read the Federalist Papers.

Most important, Obama will be a realist. I doubt he will taunt Russia, as McCain has, at the very moment when our national interest requires it as an ally. The crucial distinction in my mind is that, unlike John McCain, I am convinced he will not impulsively take us into another war unless American national interests are directly threatened.

“Every great cause,” Eric Hoffer wrote, “begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.” As a cause, conservatism may be dead. But as a stance, as a way of making judgments in a complex and difficult world, I believe it is very much alive in the instincts and predispositions of a liberal named Barack Obama...
The comments include this amazing gem ..
Your article endorsing Obama found its way to my computer, Wick... and I wanted you to know you have a VERY strong "thumbs up" from three folks you might least expect: my two sisters and me. We are the daughters of Bill Miller who ran for Vice President with Barry Goldwater back in '64. We have all morphed quite independently into feeling, as you do, that the Republican Party in general and George Bush in particular do not represent in any fashion what our dad stood for more than 40 years ago. In fact, we are all HUGE Obama Mamas! I live with my family in Salisbury, NC... my older sister Libby Miller Fitzgerald is in Lynchburg, VA... and our youngest sister Stephanie Miller is in LA where she has a nationally syndicated radio talk show and is seen regularly on Larry King and other TV shows. Thank you for your wise words. I hope there are enough others like you to put Obama over the top. Or we're headed overseas to live!

Mary Miller James
A Goldwater endorsement for Obama? And I thought George Will's endorsement was mind blowing.

Update: See also. It's all part of the Republican enlightenment kit. These are the people who will be able, if McCain loses, to fight for a respectable, reformed, GOP.

The bright side of President Palin

I know that Palin/McCain will win tomorrow and that all of our contributions and my cheery blog posts will have been for naught.

As a perennial optimist I thus prefer to look at the bright side of a McCain victory and the inevitable Dominion of President Palin.

Yes, I'm just a glass half-full kind of guy.

You see, if Obama wins then people like me will feel compelled to try to save the human world. We'll be obliged to think about fraud and our medication supply chain, fraud and our food supply, integrating China into a peaceful world, managing Russia's convulsions, mitigating global climate catastrophe and ecological collapse, tackling global poverty, surviving the end of oil, helping cognitively impaired persons be the best they can be, reducing the growing disability burden of technocentric society, surviving the falling cost of havoc, preserving freedom, responding to the challenge of the Weak and so on and on and on.

We're made that way. We can't help it.

But if McCain/Palin win, well, then we can relax.

We'll know that we'd done everything we could have done. We can lay down our shields honorably. We'll know we tried hard to avert the Dark, even though, really, we knew that the odds were miserable even with great leadership.

Clearly, with President Palin at the helm there will be no point in worrying about humanity's future.

So if McCain/Palin win we can spend more time with our families. Maybe we'll buy some land within my 92nd Airborne buddy's defensive perimeter in Michigan's remote Upper Peninsula. We can take up poetry, painting and heavy drinking, and enjoy the waning days of America and, most likely, all of civilization.

It's something to look forward to. Time off as it were. I'm tempted to vote for McCain myself, but that would be cheating. I can't escape my geas until the final Doom has come. Then it's party time.

So to speak.

AOL users are VERY republican

Fascinating. AOL customers are very republican ...
In Landslide, John McCain Is The President Of AOL

... AOL.com's homepage political poll results are in, and the site's calling a landslide for Republican John McCain. Not only does he carry swing states Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, in the poll, but McCain also scores upset wins in California and Massachusetts...
Fascinating. Someone who still uses AOL today is probably information averse, fairly poor, and really hates change.

Prediction markets are irrational - the McCain penny stock example

Whatever the outcome tomorrow, we've extracted some useful knowledge from the process.

Prediction markets are no more rational than the stock market ...
McCain Is Now A Penny Stock

... John McCain's odds on Intrade drop to 9 cents on the dollar, a new low. (If you put a gun to our head and forced us to bet, we'd actually buy the contract at that level. We think Obama will win, but we certainly wouldn't give someone 10-to-1 odds on that.)...
I think the election is too close to call, but that might reflect my superstitious nature. There's no way, however, that Obama has a 90% certainty of winning.

So we shouldn't expect too much of prediction markets in the future.

Update 11/3/08: Ahh, but for a contrary perspective on those probabilities ...

GOP slime - it must be noted

We'll soon forget the details, so it's useful to have a reminder.

GOP and Democratic slime are not equivalent. The GOP plays in another league, a much nastier league.

If Obama wins, which I still consider unlikely, then the GOP will complain bitterly about "journalistic bias". They'll want to cow what's left of the press and network TV.

It will be good to remember these examples then.