By their enemies ye shall know them: Great news for health insurance reform

I really want to write about peak oil (for example), tech churn and those alleged Burmese nukes, but I can’t escape the magnetic pull of health care reform.

I’ve had my own doubts about ObamaCare, but the GOP has laid them to rest. Anything that the right wing loons of the (all white) TeaBagger and Birther cults hate this much must be good …

Robert Reich's Blog: Astroturf Along American Highways, and the Republican Plan

On our drive across America, my son and I have spotted spiffy white vans emblazoned with phrases like "ObamaCare will raise your taxes" and "ObamaCare will put bureaucrats in charge of your health." Just outside Omaha we drove close enough to take a peek at the driver, who looked as dutifully professional as the spanking new van he was driving.

This isn't grass roots. It's Astroturf. The vans carry the logo "Americans for Prosperity," one of the Washington front groups orchestrating the fight against universal health…

… FreedomWorks, another group now Astroturfing its way around America, is chaired by former House Republican Leader Dick Armey. Texas Republican Pete Sessions, who chairs the National Republican Campaign Committee, says the days of civil town halls are "now over.” …

… The Republicans' goal isn't ideological. It's power. Republicans smell 1994 all over again. That's when they defeated Clinton's healthcare plan -- and in doing so convinced large numbers of Americans that Clinton and the Democrats couldn't be trusted…

There’s nothing like enlisting the mindless mob to remind everyone how great Obama is …

Managed Care Matters: This is getting ugly - and that's good

… There have been many reports of town hall meetings disrupted by what appears to be carefully organized groups, using an approach scripted by a Washington lobbying firm headed by none other than former Texas Republican Rep. Dick Armey.

Armey's clients include insurers and medical device companies, firms that are terrified of the potential that health reform may actually harm their business models. The disrupt and obstruct model was actually tested here in Connecticut in a town hall meeting held by Fairfield County's Jim Himes (D). Read the memo at the link to see just how disgusting these people are…

The more rabid the GOP gets, the better for the good guys (emphases mine) …

TPM: Best moments so far

I wrote earlier this week that in the unfolding drama of the health care townhall teabaggery, conservatives have developed their series of shout-downs and freak-outs into something resembling a right-wing performance art…

… As our team has reported on at some length already, there appears to be a reasonably well-orchestrated national effort to mobilize teabaggers to go and shutdown these townhall events with raucous demonstrations...

The truth is that there's actually quite a lot of authenticity packed into these events, often a bit more, sometimes quite a bit more than the partisans helping put this stuff together end up being comfortable with …

… even though we're only a few days into the run, I thought it made sense to review some of the greatest moments so far.

High on the list has to be the group of Tea Baggers who hanged an effigy of Rep. Frank Kratovil (D-MD) from a noose in front of his district office a few weeks ago. Then there was the case yesterday where a few folks at a tea bag protest outside a townhall meeting in Hartford called on Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) to commit suicide as a way to cure his recently diagnosed prostate cancer. And even though it lacked any clear appeal to the murder of public officials or even a good suicide joke, I'm still pretty fond of this case on Tuesday where the head of the local Tea Party group up in Rome, New York just started yelling 'liar' over and over at a clearly befuddled and caught off guard Steny Hoyer.

It's hard not to get the sense that the longer this goes on the more cases you're going to have where some of these good folks let slip what they really think of Barack Obama…

The DNC has caught on to what a wonderful job the mob is doing for Obama …

Yes, now that the GOP is on the case I feel a lot better. The only way to improve things would be to enlist Bill Clinton to lash the whackos to new heights of self-mutilation.

Oh, my worries and doubts? Nothing I haven’t written about before, except the very first one ..

• Medicare costs have to be managed with or without “health insurance reform” (good reframing there). It’s still politically lethal to touch Medicare. So it will have to be left for a time when Americans are a bit more reality based (if ever!). Key insight: We’re not going to make the Medicare problem worse by doing health insurance reform, and there’s no political support for fixing Medicare.
• We need a minimum of “good-enough care” for all, including persons who are not employed by large corporate buyers and for people with pre-existing conditions. Delivering this cost-effectively will require radical experimentation, including composition, training and deployment of the healthcare workforce. Government can support that by altering blocking regulations, but this task is politically impossible – only private entities can do that kind of radical reengineering. So in an ideal world the GOP would have something to contribute – a market perspective. Unfortunately that GOP died with Nixon so we have to do what we can with what we have.
• Even the best Tiramisu gets nauseating after the first pint or so. Most things in life have nice utility curve – you can almost always have too much of a good thing. There are exceptions. It’s hard to imagine a trans-Atlantic flight that would go too quickly. Another exception is health care. If you miraculously free up $300 billion in “waste” (doesn’t exist, but that’s besides the point) I’d easily spend it all on better healthcare welcomed by all. Heck, I could spend a trillion. It’s hard to get real about health care provision until you realize that the utility curve doesn’t stop climbing (though it does bend). Spend more, you can do more.

Doubts and worries I may have, but the GOP’s tactics have, as usual, clarified the fog. The rabid foaming loons confirm that we’re doing the right thing.

I’m ready to start sending cash to support “Health Insurance Reform”. Where do I fork out?

Update: Dang. Even the more reliable wingnuts are beginning to catch on.

Two income families and the curious economics of unemployment

Most of us consider involuntary unemployment to be entirely a bad thing. From a macroeconomic point of view, however, things are less clear ...

METRICS - For the Unemployed, the Day Stacks Up Differently - NYTimes.com

... If all we were doing is substituting production at home for production in the marketplace,' said Daniel S. Hamermesh, an economics professor at the University of Texas at Austin, 'then maybe unemployment wouldn't be so bad.'...

In 21st century America two income families have a very significant advantage. The risk of going entirely without health care and without income is half that of a single income family. Risk reduction isn't the same as economic value however. It might be more efficient for one family member to work for money and another to manage home and health (more sleep, more exercise -> longer life, less disability, greater lifelong income).

From the perspective of the overall economy, being unemployed is not the same as being unproductive -- and it's the productivity over time that matters for some measurements.

The (historic) Battle of Google Voice - Enter the FCC

Bush laid waste to rational government, leaving a largely broken and corrupted mess.

Bureaucracies are hard to kill however. Bush could introduce incompetent or destructive leadership, but eight years wasn't long enough to kill all of the professional core.

I'd forgotten that when I wrote of the impeccable logic of AT&T/Apple’s Google Voice/Latitude App Store rejections...

... AT&T is pushing the antitrust envelope in a fierce and rational fight to stay alive. Apple has more ways to make money, but they’re in the game with AT&T and they too face disruptive threats...

... AT&T and Apple are behaving rationally in the face of a disruptive market entry. The best answer, after all, to the Innovator’s Dilemma is to identify potential disruptive forces and use economic warfare to destroy them – or, in the case of an opponent the size of Google, slow their advance...

... It's ... easy to see, given these precedents, the path AT&T and Apple will (must) take to eliminate competitive threats and maximize their future revenue streams ... It’s no good trying to argue Google/Apple away from their positions – they are entirely logical...

In the Bush era, I'd have been right. In that time the GOP's marketarian mixture of corruption and evangelical libertarianism meant there was no consumer representation in business battles.

I'd forgotten that we're not in the Bush era any more. We're in a fragile interlude where Reason has a voice in the executive branch. A higher power has joined the Battle of Google Voice.

The Obama FCC is no longer a mockery, it has an agenda (emphases mine) ...

Why The FCC Wants To Smash Open The iPhone
Erick Schonfeld, TechCrunch.com (Washington Post Online)

Right about now, Apple probably wishes it had never rejected Google Voice and related apps from the iPhone. Or maybe it was AT&T who rejected the apps. Nobody really knows. But the FCC launched an investigation last night to find out, sending letters to all three companies (Apple, AT&T, and Google) asking them to explain exactly what happened.

On its face, it might seem odd to some people that the FCC is investigating the rejection of a single iPhone app. After all, iPhone apps are rejected every day. But the Google Voice rejection caused an unusual amount of uproar, and there is nothing like a high-profile case to make an example out of in pursuit of pushing a bigger policy agenda. The FCC investigation is not just about the arbitrary rejection of a single app. It is the FCC's way of putting a stake in the ground for making the wireless networks controlled by cell phone carriers as open as the Internet.

Today there are two different sets of rules for applications and devices on the Internet. On the wired Internet, we can connect any type of PC or other computing device and use any applications we want on those devices. On the wireless Internet controlled by cellular carriers like AT&T, we can only use the phones they allow on their networks and can only use the applications they approve. This was fine when the wireless networks were used mostly just for voice calls. But now that they are increasingly becoming our mobile connections to the Internet and mobile phones are becoming full-fledged mobile computers, an argument has been growing that the same rules of open access that rule the wired Internet should apply to the wireless Internet.

While Apple and AT&T cannot be too happy about the FCC investigation, Google must secretly be pleased as punch. It was only two years ago, prior to the 700MHz wireless spectrum auctions, that it was pleading with the FCC to adopt principles guaranteeing open access for applications, devices, services, and other networks. Now two years later, in a different context and under a different administration, the FCC is pushing for the same principles.

In its letters requesting more information from all three companies, the FCC cites "pending FCC proceedings regarding wireless open access (RM-11361) and handset exclusivity (RM-11497). That first proceeding on open access dates back to 2007 when Skype requested that cell phone carriers open up their networks to all applications (see Skype's petition here)…

… AT&T responded to this post with the following statements:

AT&T does not manage or approve applications for the App Store. We have received the letter and will, of course, respond to it. Customers can use any compatible GSM phone on our network, not just the ones we’ve approved and sell. And they also can use apps we don’t approve. We don’t approve iPhone applications.

So there you have it. You can use any mobile app you like on AT&T unless it is an iPhone app (that's been rejected by Apple). Does Apple ever reject apps at the request of AT&T though? Maybe they'll give the FCC a straight answer…

As CNN.com/Fortune’s Brainstorm Tech put it "Sometimes you’ve just got to love the government”.

Mobile communication companies lease a public good – frequency. In the Obama era there’s an active government role in aligning the public good with consumer interests through maximizing direct competition.

I recommend reading the 2007 Arrington article Schonfeld cited, particularly this section …

AT&T’s response to Google’s letter was breathtaking in its audacity:

… Not satisfied with a compromise proposal from Chairman Martin that meets most of its conditions, Google has now delivered an all or nothing ultimatum to the U.S. Government, insisting that every single one of their conditions “must” be met or they will not participate in the spectrum auction. Google is demanding the Government stack the deck in its favor, limit competing bids, and effectively force wireless carriers to alter their business models to Google’s liking. We would repeat that Google should put up or shut up— they can bid and enter the wireless market with any business model they prefer, then let consumers decide which model they like best…

Google lost that spectrum auction, but I dimly recall they did manage to get some rules on spectrum use added to the language of the auction.

I know some of my tiny readership felt I’d gone over the top when I wrote of the “Battle of Google Voice”. I even wondered myself if I’d been too dramatic. In retrospect, however, I called this one correctly.

This is big. I think, like me, Apple and AT&T forgot that the Bush era was over, and they foolishly gave the FCC the club they were looking for. They’ll now be turning to their Senatorial pawns, but Microsoft and Google will moving their Senators too.

Who’s to blame for the action and the blunder? At first Apple was leaking rumors that AT&T was to blame, but now AT&T is firmly and publicly blaming Apple. I though both had collaborated, but now I’m thinking Apple may have played the leading role. The timing of Steve Jobs return is obviously curious.

This really is a historic moment. We’ll either get an open competition that will deliver value to consumers in the near term, or we’ll be stuck in a ground war in cyberspace for the next decade.

Update 8/3/09: Al Gore is on Apple's board. I wonder what questions he's asking Steve Jobs now.

Central Park, Sioux Falls and Guns in America

A telling comment. Mr. Thune does not impress.

Gail Collins - Have Gun, Will Travel - NYTimes.com

... John Thune of South Dakota, said that if people from his state were able to go to New York and visit tourist attractions while carrying their concealed weapons, “Central Park would be a much safer place.”

This suggests how much Americans have to learn about each other. Central Park is way safer than South Dakota. There were no murders and three serious assaults in Central Park in 2008, compared with five murders and 341 assaults in Sioux Falls alone...

Of course Sioux Falls is a city and Central Park is, well, a very popular park. Still, it is certainly not the den of crime Thune imagines, nor will it be improved by people carrying hand guns.

The GOP is desperate for a fight over hand guns. They'll try anything to provoke it, including mandating the distribution of hand guns to preschoolers.

They won't get a fight. Rationalists remember Al Gore. Gun limitations in America will have to come from the right, not the left. If Gore hadn't signed on to the Million Mom gun control initiative he'd have concluded a very respected two terms as President of the United States.

It's better to live with guns in the workplace than to get another GWB (or, worse, President Palin).

We Rationalists will slow the GOP's march to universal hand gun distribution, but America is still on the razor edge of sanity (vis. Birthers). The GOP won't get the fight they so desperately want. All Hail the National Rifle Association!

Heck, I bought a ticket from a (hard core Democrat) buddy for the raffle of some monstrous semi-automatic shotgun. If I win the raffle I suppose I'll technically be the owner for the two minutes it takes me to give it to him.

The 100 Iranian dissidents - a telling photograph

This NYT article on a mass trial of 100 Iranian dissidents is headline by a photograph of the men sitting at trial. We see them in profile.

They have, to me, formidable faces.

I can't say why they they should have those faces, or why they appear that way to me. It's a curious thing. It left me with the impression, in a photograph, that this struggle is not yet over.

This does not mean the regime will lose. One sees similar faces in images from the mass trials of the Soviet empire. I don't know nearly enough about Iran to guess how this might go.

The iPhone Google Voice debacle - straight from bloggers to the FCC

So now the FCC is looking into the Google Voice (and Latitude?) iPhone story. AT&T is telling everyone that it was all Apple's doing. This can't be going as planned.

There are a lot of interesting aspects to this story, but one of them is the near complete absence of commentary by media figures like Pogue and Mossberg. Even as geek bloggers like me were appalled at the implications of Apple/AT&T's actions the mainstream media yawned.

Yeah, I mean you David Pogue. I'm not impressed that you spend the last few days writing about answering machine delays.

In the absence of newspaper coverage, the story went directly from "new media" to FCC action. I don't know if blogger outrage played any role -- more likely it was Google lobbyists and lawyers. What I do know is that old media played no role at all, though they'll probably have to write something in the morning.

Noteworthy.

Update: I really should know better than to write a sentence starting with "what I do know". The FCC email reportedly cited a NYT article I missed. My fail.

Maher on the Birthers - and finding the levers on the loons

Maher is right that we can't keep laughing at the Birthers. They're almost mainstream now in the American south, and they claim the allegiance of a very substantial fraction of the broken shards of what was once a respectable political party...

'Birthers' must be stopped - Los Angeles Times

... once these stories get out there, they're hard to stamp out because our media do such a lousy job of speaking truth to stupid. Vietnam, Iraq and the Spanish-American War were all sold on lies that were unchallenged or even abetted by the media. Clinton got impeached and Kerry got destroyed in large part because the media didn't have the guts to say, 'This is nonsense.'

Lou Dobbs has been saying recently that people are asking a lot of questions about the birth certificate. Yes, the same people who want to know where the sun goes at night.

And Lou, you're their new king.

That's why it's so important that we the few, the proud, the reality-based attack this stuff before it has a chance to fester and spread. This isn't a case of Democrats versus Republicans. It's sentient beings versus the lizard people...

So what do we do about it? By definition the Birthers are beyond reason. What do you do when a significant fraction of your nation is crazy?

Maybe we need to start working on the advertisers who are paying the bills of people like Lou Dobbs. A boycott of any advertisers shown during a Dobbs appearance perhaps?

We are in such deep trouble as a nation. I still don't understand how the heck we merited Obama.

Don't count Obama out ...

His numbers are down. Climate change is in worse shape than health care reform, and health care public support is dwindling. Unemployment is rising. The (racist) Birthers are feeling energized. Then Obama sticks his foot in his mouth on race.

He's got to be in big trouble, right?

The Associated Press: Analysis: Obama's rare race foray a positive step

...'The cynic in me wants to shoot holes in it, the critic in me wants to pick it apart,' said conservative radio host Mike Gallagher. 'But I'm sorry, you have two sides, polar opposites in a racially tinged confrontation like this, sitting down with the president of the United States over a beer at the White House?

'This is a great step forward in showing how you can take a confrontation, a conflict, and make a positive out of it.'...

Maybe not so much.

Don't underestimate this guy. He's got the luck of the O'Bamas, and he knows how to make more.

Chill.

Note to Fed: Huh? Back off! Back off! Aiieeeeee …

Timeline Oct 2008 to July 2009 …

 Oct 10, 2008: Gordon's Notes: Dow 9,000 - forget retirement, what about  kid’s college?

… Krugman points out that we're kind of in free fall ...Dow 9,000 …

March 3, 2009: Against the crash - why I'm optimistic

So color me optimistic … Dow 9000 by November 2009.

July 31, 2009: House rushes to rescue ‘cash for clunker’s program (launched @ 7 days ago)

… the … Car Allowance Rebate System …  provides credits of as much as $4,500 for the purchase of a new car when turning in an older vehicle to be scrapped. Lawmakers had expected the program to generate about 250,000 vehicle sales and to have enough money to last until about Nov. 1…

… the National Automobile Dealers Association, which represents about 19,700 new car and truck dealers, came to the Michigan delegation with concerns about the $1 billion being used up, with 40,000 transactions completed and about 200,000 in the pipeline...

July 31, 2009: The U.S. economy: Feeling much better

… The Commerce Department's initial stab at figuring out the gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2009, came out at a 1 percent decline, which is lower than economists were predicting…

July 31, 2009: Dow 9178 (+23)

Last March I was feeling contrarian, and bet on 9,000 by November. I didn’t bet on 9,000 by July. If we continued along the course of the past month we’ll be in range of 11,000 by November.

That might help Obama get health care reform through, but, economically, it would be a very bad thing.

In the face of true financial catastrophe the US and China did a mega-mega stimulus package. No, not the trillion dollars in the official US stimulus package, but the Fed’s big moves and the sustaining effect of persistent governmental expenditures and China’s immense internal package.

That averted catastrophe, but it means, of course, that we can tip fast. We may be at the tipping point now. A spending program that was supposed to last over four months sold out in one week. (it would be crazy to renew it of course.)

The Cash for Clunker story confirms there’s a ton of money in the United States, and the American urge to spend isn’t gone. If that money pours out of people’s piggy banks we’re going to blow this bubble up real fast.

Eeeeyikes.

Latitude and Voice: The impeccable logic of AT&T/Apple’s App Store rejections

AT&T/Apple blocked all Google Voice Apps from the iPhone. I’m an extreme case, but if they were fully able to block Google Voice use from the iPhone they’d cost me up to $70-$90/month (frequent long distance mobile phone calls to Canada plus potential SMS savings).

AT&T/Apple also blocked Google Latitude’s location finder from the iPhone. It’s been less remarked that AT&T sells a competing location find app …

Gordon's Notes: iPhone trouble: Apple rejects Google Latitude, possibly Google Voice

… AT&T's Location Finder costs $15/month for a family of five…

That’s a lot of money for a service Google provides for free.

AT&T is pushing the antitrust envelope in a fierce and rational fight to stay alive. Apple has more ways to make money, but they’re in the game with AT&T and they too face disruptive threats.

AT&T and Apple’s behavior is rational and is very likely in the interests of their shareholders, though Apple’s abuse of the affected developers is over the edge. I’m much more offended by that than I am by the blocking of the Google Voice and Latitude apps; Apple should have found a way to keep these developer’s whole.

AT&T and Apple are behaving rationally in the face of a disruptive market entry. The best answer, after all, to the Innovator’s Dilemma is to identify potential disruptive forces and use economic warfare to destroy them – or, in the case of an opponent the size of Google, slow their advance.

Their interests, of course, are not always mine. In this case, our interests conflict strongly. It's very easy to see, given these precedents, the path AT&T and Apple will (must) take to eliminate competitive threats and maximize their future revenue streams.

So the question for me, and people like me, is how best to adapt. It’s no good trying to argue Google/Apple away from their positions – they are entirely logical. My strategy is to draw closer to Google, the disruptive force currently most aligned with my interests.

What’s your strategy?

Update: see also – Lessons from Apple’s rejection of Google Voice and Latitude. The App Store, from a consumer perspective, has a fatal flaw.

The evolutionary wonder of the high flying goose

The bar-headed goose commutes across the Himalayas, flying at up to 30,000 feet. This seems kind of crazy, but I suppose the roads are uncrowded.

They had to do quite a bit of evolving to manage this. They have the sort of complex interconnected adaptations that old-style creationists used as evidence for active design. Thing is, they didn't have to do it all at once ...

How Geese Get Enough Oxygen Flying Over Himalayas By HENRY FOUNTAIN

The bar-headed goose's muscle cells have evolved to make more efficient use of low oxygen levels at high altitudes....

...He said the changes in the muscle cells probably evolved over a long period of time, perhaps as the Himalayas, one of the Earth’s youngest mountain chains, grew and the birds would have had to fly higher and higher.

Emily compares it to the old story of the boy lifting the growing calf. He did it every day, growing stronger and stronger, until, at long last, his spine snapped.

Apple adds outrage to injury – forced refunds on the removed Google Voice apps

Apple’s handling of the Google Voice iPhone debacle has moved from very disturbing to outrageous (emphases mine) …

Yeah, there's an app for that. But for how long, and at what cost?

As if having to worry whether or not your apps could start disappearing isn't enough, there is another layer of complexity to deal with if a paid app is removed: the users.

… Sure, if a live app is removed, users will likely be upset no matter what happens... but if they've paid for it, and they can't get future upgrades or bug fixes, some of them are going to be wanting their money back. As some developers have already discovered, refunds can get expensive if there are enough of them, because Apple retains its 30% commission, while the developer has to reimburse the full cost of the application to cover the refund -- meaning each refund on an app that is priced $9.99 ends up costing the developer the full $9.99, rather than the $7 in revenue that they actually made from the purchase.

By now, you're probably wondering how the refunds fit in with the Google Voice situation. Simple: Apple is now issuing refunds to users of the VoiceCentral application. That's right, Apple suddenly decided that the application should be removed -- after it had already been approved months ago -- and is now giving out refunds for it when users request them, leaving the developer to foot the bills for both refunds and staffing end-user support to answer questions about what happened to the app. Meanwhile, Apple gets to keep their cut of the profits…

This is Apple’s move, not AT&T’s. My Apple hardware and software purchases are now on hold. If you’re a user of products Apple has unjustly pulled there’s a better approach …

… I called up apple corporate offices and told them that I want my money back as “compensation” — NOT as a refund. I was very specific that I did not want a refund on the app; that I wanted APPLE to cover my cost. They ended up crediting my account for 5-free song downloads…

I spoke to Robert Burger @ Apple Corporate care. You can reach him at 512-674-2500 x 40267. Give him a call and let him know how you feel about what happened…

Apple should eat the entire cost of any refunds on these apps.

I’ll be looking for my Windows 7 netbook this fall.

Complain to Apple about the Google Voice fiasco

The author of VoiceCentral (pulled from app store along with all other Google Voice related products) points out that there's a form for iPhone Feedback. Give it a try.

Keep it polite, but it's fair to mention that this debacle is causing you to reconsider your commitment to the iPhone and other Apple products and that you appreciated the value and innovation of the Google Voice offering more than most iPhone products.

Buy.com is on my blacklist

Buy.com was already in trouble for spam, but I’d forgotten about that when I ordered some 2.5mm to 3.5mm adapters. These were supposed to allow me to use my Shure QuietSpot 2.5mm Headset with my iPhone; they replaced some cheap adapters that worked well but had become frayed.

I used the Google Checkout option on my order for the “Metallic 3.5mm Male to 2.5mm Female Audio Adapter for iPhoneiPod  -  Marketplace Item -- Shipped by: Wireless Emporium”.

I knew I was taking a chance when I ordered 3 of these suckers from a no-brand distributor that probably operates under five names. The cost with shipping was $24, and, based on past experience with similar adapters, I gave them only a 50% chance of working.

I lost that bet (they don’t work), but that’s not what got Buy.com on my blacklist. Turns out the package only included two adapters, though I’d paid for three. I used Google Checkout’s email feedback to message Buy.com about the order.

They never replied.

I hardly ever use Buy.com – there’s no advantage really over Amazon. In this case I couldn’t find a solution on Amazon, so I took a chance. They only get one.

During early electrification, did home lighting worsen?

I’m exploring the tech churn meme…

Gordon's Notes: Tech churn and the fall of the Feed Reader – a new meme tag

… In my timeline feed readers went from new and useful to life support in about five years. … Feed Readers are being replaced by … nothing. They haven’t been superseded, they’ve been lost in tech churn white water … Tech churn has a substantial productivity cost … Old technologies are ailing, but new technologies are unready and/or short lived … I suspect tech churn is taking a real toll on our economic and personal productivity…

Of course we’re not the first people to go through some dramatic technology changes. A hundred years ago the changes were intense – and, unlike today, very physical. Electrification, steam engines, combustion engines, lighter than air flight … A hell of a lot, very quickly.

So did my deceased great grandparents experience tech churn? Did their home lighting become less reliable as they pulled out gas lamps and put in early electrical bulbs? What about those who installed DC solutions then had to switch to AC systems? Was transportation transiently less efficient when horses and cars fought over the same roads?

Anyone aware of any historic precedents or articles on this topic?

Incidentally, I thought I’d coined a new term. Not necessarily! For example:

• Technology Churn (c2.com)
• NPR: The woes of technology churn
• IT World – coping with technology churn

I haven’t yet found articles or posts drawing the same implications I’m writing of, but I’m sure they exist. This meme may catch on.