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Saturday, November 21, 2009
Twilight of the mail
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Friday, November 20, 2009
Health IT Standards - what I would do
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How much is the gBook in the Window?
Q: Do you know what this Chrome OS netbooks will cost?Huh?
SP: You will hear that from our partners. They will be in the price range that people are used to for netbooks today. But it’s hard to predict a year from now. Also remember, they will be bigger.
What ChromeOS Means For Netbooks And Why Microsoft Needs To Be Scared
... ChromeOS may not be powerful, it may not play Far Cry and it may not run Microsoft Office but it’s a game changer. The underpowered laptops that limped along under Vista, XP, or 7 will fly under a new ChromeOS regime and thin-and-light laptops will fall below the vaunted $199 mark as the so-called “Microsoft Tax” – basically the small cost manufacturers pay for OEM licenses – disappears."..The XP tax, by the way, is less than $25.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
A smart mind is a dangerous thing to waste
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Paul Graham on the price of the App Store
Apple's MistakeStart with allowing Google's products.
... I suppose Apple has a third misconception: that all the complaints about App Store approvals are not a serious problem. They must hear developers complaining. But partners and suppliers are always complaining. It would be a bad sign if they weren't; it would mean you were being too easy on them. Meanwhile the iPhone is selling better than ever. So why do they need to fix anything?
They get away with maltreating developers, in the short term, because they make such great hardware. I just bought a new 27" iMac a couple days ago. It's fabulous. The screen's too shiny, and the disk is surprisingly loud, but it's so beautiful that you can't make yourself care.
So I bought it, but I bought it, for the first time, with misgivings. I felt the way I'd feel buying something made in a country with a bad human rights record. That was new. In the past when I bought things from Apple it was an unalloyed pleasure. Oh boy! They make such great stuff. This time it felt like a Faustian bargain. They make such great stuff, but they're such assholes. Do I really want to support this company?
Health insurance: we're defeated by a complexity attack
- The graphical portion of the simulation is probably wrong.
- Disregarding the graphical part, and parsing out rollover of the "HRA" part, and factoring in various combination of pre-tax and post-tax contributions and Flex guesses the plans are more similar than the appear -- but the numbers may be wrong
- The numbers in one resource are quite different from the simulation/web site numbers. They don't add up. On the other hand, one of the simulation numbers is probably wrong.
- Gordon's Notes: Employment benefit complexity: we are sheep
- Gordon's Notes: The hidden insurance problem: they can play the game better than we can
AT&T “A List” – the gift that’s not
AT&T markets a new “A List” feature…
Enjoy unlimited calls to and from the phone numbers in your A-List. Your A-List can include valid domestic phone numbers for any domestic service provider - wireless or landline.
I’ve added my corporate conference call number to my AT&T “A List”. The list already includes my home landline and, especially, the Google Voice number that connects me to Canada for free.
Once this is effective my corporate conference calls shouldn’t use any of my minutes (even toll-free calls use minutes).
Since Google Voice and Google Talk combined with the A List mean my whole family uses less than 300 minutes a month, we no longer need our family plan of 1,400. I’ve be fine with only 550 minutes.
Wow! I could drop my bill from $80 to $40. What a great feature …
Ahh. But you know there’s a hook, don’t you?
The A list feature is only available for plans with 1,400 minutes and up.
AT&T isn’t stupid. Crooked, sure. Stupid, no.
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
The cat brain simulator. Game over?
... IBM said it has already simulated a cat-sized cerebral cortex — the area of the brain that's key to memory, attention, and consciousness — using a massive Blue Gene supercomputer at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California.
This feline-scale cortical simulation, which was made with the help of researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, included 1 billion neurons and 10 trillion individual learning synapses. The simulation ran 100 to 1,000 times slower than real-time, said Dharmendra Modha, manager of IBM's Cognitive Computing unit at its Almaden Research Center, in a blog post.and from a completely different direction ...
- Gordon's Notes 2004: Rat brain flies plane -- organic neural network
- Gordon's Notes: Aaronson critiques Kurzweil and the 2045 Singularity
- SETI, the Fermi Paradox and The Singularity: Why our search for extraterrestial intelligence has failed
- Gordon's Notes: Signs of the singularity: science fiction gives up
- Gordon's Notes: Imagining the Singularity in 1965…
- Gordon's Notes: The Economist predicts an early Singularity through neuroengineering
- Gordon's Notes: Singularity watch: Google maps is now smarter than me
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Tuesday, November 17, 2009
The paradox of 21st century prosperity
Robert Reich's Blog: Obama, China, and Wishful Thinking About American Jobs... The dirty little secret on both sides of the Pacific is that both America and China are capable of producing far more than their own consumers are capable of buying. In the U.S., the root of the problem is a growing share of total income going to the richest Americans, leaving the middle class with relatively less purchasing power unless they go deep into debt. Inequality is also widening in China, but the problem there is a declining share of the fruits of economic growth going to average Chinese and an increasing share going to capital investment...
- Gordon's Notes 2008 (another Reich article): Tipping points and GD 2.0: speculations and lessons
- Gordon's Notes 2005: David Brin on hierarchical societies
- Gordon's Notes 2005: Neo-feudalism
- Gordon's Notes 2004: Jared Bernstein & Brad DeLong on "Outsourcing": a dialog with interesting commentary
- NY Times 2009: Rich turn to concierge services to find value (and avoid fraud)
Monday, November 16, 2009
The world is going to get bigger
I don’t fly that much these days – maybe 10 flights a year. Yesterday I took one of my longer flights – from Minneapolis to San Francisco. On that flight I again thought about how the world is getting a bit bigger, and that it may get a lot bigger fairly soon.
That’s new. For most of my life the world got smaller. Air fare, especially as a percentage of average income, kept falling. Families spread out. My generation moved to take new jobs.
Air fares aren’t falling any more, and most people’s incomes aren’t rising much. When I consider increased costs of health insurance, my disposable income will be down this year – and I’ve been relatively fortunate.
On the other hand, air fare to Montreal (for example0 has more than doubled in the past nine months. The carriers reduced capacity, bought the competition, and now fly fewer but fuller planes at 2-3 times past fares.
Industry consolidation will continue to boost prices, but so will cap-and-trade carbon tax equivalents. There’s something much bigger coming though…
Energy security body calls for 'urgent' review of impact of oil shortages - Business – guardian
… Swedish academics unveiled their latest assessments of the numbers and came to even more gloomy assumptions. The study from Uppsala University entitled The Peak of the Oil Age estimated that by 2030 the world would be able to rely on only 75m barrels of oil a day, compared with the 105m forecast by the IEA.
Until relatively recently the agency was assuming the output figure would be as high as 120m and it still believes a peak of production could be reached in 2020, while Uppsala believes it might have already been reached…
I made my own “demand/supply peak light sweet” call in 2008 – in which I made wild ass claim that it would be apparent by 2015 that the demand/supply ratio for light sweet crude would cause prices to rise and crash and rise and crash their way to the $200/barrel mark (rise and crash because of secondary recessions, $200 because at that point serious conservation starts to align supply and demand).
Between some kind of carbon-tax-equivalent and “peak oil” of any form, air travel will at least double in cost over the next five years – even as profits continue to be squeezed.
That means a much bigger world to cross for the dispersed families of my generation. Maybe the next generation should stay closer to home base.
High speed rail, by the way, is looking pretty interesting.
Update 11/16/09: A follow-up article by The Guardian’s Monbiot: The one thing depleting faster than oil is the credibility of those measuring it - George Monbiot
Update 11/17/09: It occurs to me that a good measure of how real this stuff is would be to watch how very wealthy and smart people invest. I recall thatWarren Buffett recently bought some railways, and of course I'm not the only eccentric sort to make this connection ...
Saturday, November 14, 2009
There are only two fixes for the Apple iPhone App Store
Manton Reece: The only 2 fixes for the iPhone platform
... There are a lot of well-intentioned suggestions for improving the App Store, but the result will always be the same until we acknowledge the root problem. The only fix is for Apple to remove itself as gatekeeper, or let us route around them...Apple is channeling the wrong side of 1984. Apple has become the enemy.
--
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Thursday, November 12, 2009
Mobile phone fraud - The accidental data charge and other scams
Verizon: How Much Do You Charge Now? - Pogue’s Posts Blog - NYTimes.com:For the record, here's a list of the mobile phone scams I know of ...
...Starting next week, Verizon will double the early-termination fee for smartphones...
...The phone is designed in such a way that you can almost never avoid getting $1.99 charge on the bill. Around the OK button on a typical flip phone are the up, down, left, right arrows. If you open the flip and accidentally press the up arrow key, you see that the phone starts to connect to the web. So you hit END right away. Well, too late. You will be charged $1.99 for that 0.02 kilobytes of data...
...Every month, the 87 million customers will accidentally hit that key a few times a month! That’s over $300 million per month in data revenue off a simple mistake!..
...Now, you can ask to have this feature blocked. But even then, if you one of those buttons by accident, your phone transmits data; you get a message that you cannot use the service because it’s blocked–BUT you just used 0.06 kilobytes of data to get that message, so you are now charged $1.99 again!...
“They have started training us reps that too many data blocks are being put on accounts now; they’re actually making us take classes called Alternatives to Data Blocks. They do not want all the blocks, because 40% of Verizon’s revenue now comes from data use. I just know there are millions of people out there that don’t even notice this $1.99 on the bill.”"
- Early termination fees that exceed plausible costs
- The time eating pointless answering machine messages
- The "accidental" high priced data fees
- The surprise fees and taxes with just about any transaction
- The covert contract renewal with service changes
- Recipient pays SMS transaction fees
- The unusable cash card rebate fraud (AT&T settled with NY state on this one)
- Uninterpretable cell phone bills.
- Passive revenue from OAN Services and other cramming scams.
- Unblockable SMS marketing.
- Long distance interconnect fees.
- Emergence: how entropy and incentives create scams
- Regional airlines, emergent fraud and enlightenment 2.0
- 21st century deception and the evolution of the emergent mind
- Grumpy old boomers: pencil sharpeners, garbage cans, toasters, DVD/VCR combos and emergent fraud
- Head still exploding: The AT&T mobile phone rebate card scam
- John's head explodes: AT&T rebate paid with an AT&T debit card
- AT&T “A List” – the gift that’s not
- A deal with the Devil: We move from Sprint to AT&T and towards an iPhone
- The Empire Strikes Back: complexity, mobile phone plans, and Apple defeated
- Amazon and the evil of cellphone companies
- Phone company posted rates are completely meaningless
- AT&T is a partner to phone scams that target the vulnerable elderly
- AT&T sends more SMS Spam, locusts infest exec underwear
- Annals of idiocy - AT&T spams customers about a TV show
- Why Economists Love to Study Cellphone Pricing - Bits Blog - NYTimes.com
- Looking for a Method in Cellphone Price Madness - NYTimes.com
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I add the despised comment captcha
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
About that health care bill …
… I'm really disappointed with the Republicans. They are supposed to be the budget hawks, but instead they've spent their time railing against abortion funding, illegal immigrants, and death panels, along with scientific research and taxes on device manufacturers. Instead of attempting to govern responsibly, they've abandoned all morality in their quest to re-energize the lunatic fringe of their once-dominant party…
… While there's plenty of blame to pile at the door of the Republicans, it is the Democrats who are to blame for coming up with a huge entitlement program set up to do nothing but grow…
Well, yes.
The GOP decided that their one and only mission was to make Barack Obama look bad. That meant this bill would attract no more than 1-2 GOP rebels. That in turn meant no constituency could be offended, which meant no serious efforts to control costs.
If we had a less dysrational electorate, then we’d have a better GOP. But we’re stuck with the GOP we’ve got.
So any bill that can pass will give everyone everything they want.
It’s not even lying. Anyone capable of perceiving reality knows there will be a reckoning. This is about building the arena for the real battle to come.
Not pretty, but that’s modern America. It’s the best we can do, and it’s much better than nothing. In stage II, assuming we get this sausage made, we’ll be talking price.
Reason – it’s more than IQ
Temperament is what you’re born with. Character is what life does with temperament.
Things aren’t so clear with intelligence. It’s very likely that one’s maximal “IQ performance” is largely determined by genes and intrauterine environment, but even so we know that IQ measurements increase with test training. More than that, there are lots of smart people who seem unable to reason rationally.
Reason is more than IQ …
Rational and Irrational Thought- The Thinking That IQ Tests Miss- Scientific American
- Traditional IQ tests miss some of the most important aspects of real-world intelligence. It is possible to test high in IQ yet to suffer from the logical-thought defect known as dysrationalia.
- One cause of dysrationalia is that people tend to be cognitive misers, meaning that they take the easy way out when trying to solve problems, often leading to solutions that are illogical and wrong.
- Another cause of dysrationalia is the mindware gap, which occurs when people lack the specific knowledge, rules and strategies needed to think rationally.
- Tests do exist that can measure dysrationalia, and they should be given more often to pick up the deficiencies that IQ tests miss.
I’m excited by this analysis. I’d have more to say but the full article isn’t available online yet and I can’t find much extended commentary.
I can note that analyses of errors in reasoning are very old – at least as old as Greek analyses of rhetoric. In the 1970s and 1980s several excellent books on medical reasoning and diagnosis characterized common errors of cognition, and in the early 1990s my CogSci grad coursework plumbed the depths. We’ve developed an extensive language for talking about errors in reasoning.
Even so, this recent article’s explicit study of the persistently dysrational (a better term than “arational” or “dysreasonal”) feels like a useful way to reframe the discussion. From Bush to Rumsfeld to Climate change deniers we’ve seen some fairly smart to brilliant people stuck in dysrational modes. If we can understand what produces dysrationalia, and how to intervene in early life, we may take a big step towards enlightenment 2.0 and rational discourse though not universal agreement.
See also: Be the Best You can Be- IQ and reasoning - not quite the same thing