Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Palm/HP is still dead
It's good news for those who bought Palm stock in the past few weeks, but it's no reason to consider buying a PalmOS device. Whatever Palm was yesterday, it's now being digested by a very average large publicly traded company. Palm is now HP.
An average PTC like HP can compete effectively against other clumsy but powerful PTCs like IBM, Dell, RIM, and Microsoft. HP is capable of turning out devices that are every bit as good as Windows Mobile phones of 2008.
Except it's not 2008, and the competition is not RIM or Microsoft or Dell. The competition is Google and Apple.
Google and Apple are also publicly traded companies. They are not typical however. They are very deviant. Google has an underestimated two tier ownership structure that gives great power to its founders. Apple has Steve Jobs, who in addition to being an insane genius with mind-control powers is also Apple's founder and has cult like authority over the company and its shareholders. Both Google and Apple behave like privately held companies with public money.
Palm is still dead. I don't know why HP did this deal. Maybe it was all IP, but they paid a lot for IP. I think they hope to stay in the only game in town. It won't work; there's no room for them at the table.
This is about Google and Apple. Microsoft will take 3rd place. RIM will fall by the wayside within three years. HP won't last a year. They can't compete.
Apple next: MobileMe becomes the iPad host peripheral
The Obama difference - Israel and Bicycles
Cohen - Beating the Mideast’s Black Hole - NYTimes.com
.... That meeting concluded with Mitchell saying: “You asked if I think Netanyahu is serious. They ask the same question. You are an expert on Palestinian and Israeli politics. They are the same. But no one in the world knows American politics better than me, and this I will say. There has never been in the White House a president that is so committed on this issue, including Clinton who is a personal friend, and there will never be, at least not in the lifetime of anyone in this room." ...Act Two: Obama: Transportation and transparency
In the Obama administration, there's an official blog from the Department of Transportation with with a post about bike and pedestrian infrastructure highlighting a March 15 policy statement on bicycle and pedestrian accommodation:
... The establishment of well-connected walking and bicycling networks is an important component for livable communities, and their design should be a part of Federal-aid project developments. ... transportation agencies should plan, fund, and implement improvements to their walking and bicycling networks, including linkages to transit...
... transportation agencies should give the same priority to walking and bicycling as is given to other transportation modes. Walking and bicycling should not be an afterthought in roadway design
... children should have safe and convenient options for walking or bicycling to school and parks..
... DOT encourages bicycle and pedestrian accommodation on bridge projects including facilities on limited-access bridges with connections to streets or paths...
..Current maintenance provisions require pedestrian facilities built with Federal funds to be maintained in the same manner as other roadway assets. State Agencies have generally established levels of service on various routes especially as related to snow and ice events...
... The Secretary shall not approve any project or take any regulatory action under this title that will result in the severance of an existing major route or have significant adverse impact on the safety for nonmotorized transportation traffic and light motorcycles, unless such project or regulatory action provides for a reasonable alternate route or such a route exists." 23 U.S.C. 109(m)....There is a difference between Obama and the GOP alternative. A vast, huge, multifaceted, every day in every way difference.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is a willing servant of Rupert Murdoch, owner operator of the Wall Street Journal and Fox news.
History is fractal - IOT the Zulu nation
That, however, was too much subtlety for 15 minutes of Shaka, for there was a lot of ground to cover in one 48 minute program. Even in this quick overview it's clear the history of the consequent fallings and risings of the Boer, Zulu, and British is immensely complex, full of chance and personality and mostly unknown.
So it is with history. Endless stories, of which we know only a tiny number. There must be many more, perhaps more grand and sad than any we know, lost in deep time.
Lost, but, in a sense, not unknown. History is fractal. The stories we know in detail are similar to those we know in outline are similar to those we know in myth, and are very likely similar to those we don't know at all. If we are wise enough to realize that history is fractal, we can study closely the history we know and learn universal truths. If we are foolish enough to believe our stories are unique, we walk the path of willful ignorance.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Gordon's Laws for software and service use
From that and similar experiences, here are Gordon's Rules of Engagement for software and services.
- Is there obnoxious DRM? (Some DRM is understandable, but it shouldn't be obnoxious.)
- If distributed on CD, can the product be used without the CD running?
- Look at the installer. Drag and Drop is fine, but if it needs an installer it better be Apple's installer.
- Inspect the uninstaller. The best apps don't need one - just delete the app. After that look for something built into the app. Then look for something that downloads with the app. If there's no installer stop immediately.
- If it's software, is there an full feature trial period? Limited feature trials are worthless. I need at least a month, or, better, 10 days of use (which may take me months).
- Who makes the product? What's their support site like? Can you find downloadable fixes?
- Is it obvious how to delete your account and all data and services?
- Do they want your Google credentials? If so, run and bar the door.
- Do they support Oauth? Do they allow you to have multiple Oauth credentials associated with your account? Extra points for each.
- Do they require a security question? If so, they're stupid. (Yes, even Google is a bit stupid these days - but they don't REQUIRE it.)
- If your storing something precious online (ex: backup data), what's the password reset policy? "Industry standard" practices means losing control of your email will cost you ALL your backup data. (for example)
- Can you get your data out in a useable way? If not, run, run, run.
- If there are annual renewals, is there an option to request approval prior to renewal?
- Is there a high quality manual and/or help resource? It doesn't matter whether you're going to read it or not. Products with good manuals are almost always good products. It's a very reliable quality measure.
- Is there a blog? Are the developers proud of their work?
See also:
Macroscopic quantum mechanics
How Noise Can Help Quantum Entanglement: Scientific American
... In the modern view that has gained traction in the past decade, you don’t see quantum effects in everyday life not because you are big, per se, but because those effects are camouflaged by their own sheer complexity. They are there if you know how to look, and physicists have been realizing that they show up in the macroscopic world more than they thought...
... This work suggests that, contrary to conventional wisdom, entanglement can persist in large, warm systems—including living organisms. “This opens the door to the possibility that entanglement could play a role in, or be a resource for, biological systems,” says Mohan Sarovar of the University of California, Berkeley, who recently found that entanglement may aid photosynthesis ... In the magnetism-sensitive molecule that birds may use as compasses, Vedral, Elisabeth Rieper, also at Singapore, and their colleagues discovered that electrons manage to remain entangled 10 to 100 times longer than the standard formulas predict...
[1] See also: Mind expanding books: a list and my comments there on Egan's Incandescence.
My Google Reader Shared items (feed)
Do knowledge workers burn more cerebral calories?
Alas, probably not ...
Appraising the brain's energy budget (PNAS 2002)
... In the average adult human, the brain represents about 2% of the body weight. Remarkably, despite its relatively small size, the brain accounts for about 20% of the oxygen and, hence, calories consumed by the body (1). This high rate of metabolism is remarkably constant despite widely varying mental and motoric activity...
Later articles suggest that while brains use a lot of calories, and are thus a very expensive evolutionary development, they don't use the calories for thinking. Brain calories are primarily consumed in "intrinsic activites" unrelated to environmental stimulus -- presumably maintenance functions of some sort.
So we knowledge workers don't get any caloric credit for thinking, and since we usually think while sitting (very bad) we're really pro blubber.
[1] We also know human brains are smaller and probably more efficient than they used to be. Of course, so are computers.
Friday, April 23, 2010
St. Paul (MSP) AT&T iPhone voice service now intolerably bad
Something has changed over the past year with our iPhone voice services around our home (Macalester-Groveland, St Paul, Minnesota) and, to a lesser extent, along my commute (St. Paul to Roseville).
Voice services have gone from mediocre to intolerably bad. The “bars” are meaningless; even with 3-4 “bars” connection failures and call drops are ubiquitous. We can’t reliable make or receive calls from our home, which is rather a problem since we don’t have long distance landline service.
Curiously data services (3G) are doing well. We’ve tried turning off 3G services at home (EDGE only) to see if voice connections improves, but that doesn’t help enough. I suspect local AT&T carrying capacity is the problem, not wireless signal.
We rely on our iPhones for a lot of things, but we need voice services.
I understand that iPhone-class technology, and the absurdity of flat-rate data service pricing, has put a great deal of strain on AT&T’s networks. I understand that our community is resistant to installing new cell towers. That understanding does not translate into sympathy. Our family is paying, I’m chastened to confess, thousands of dollars for services AT&T is not delivering.
There are things AT&T could do. They could end their insane flat-rate pricing, and institute pay-per-use bundles with similar value but user-aligned incentives. They could provide us with a free AT&T 3G MicroCell (aka femtocell) along with discounts for use. They could give us substantial discounts on their mobile services pending a fix.
They’re not doing any of these things. Instead of providing free MicroCells and discounted services, for example, AT&T charges for their femtocell solution.
I miss the days when it was possible to initiate class action lawsuits for failure to deliver contracted services.
If some other company gets iPhones in June our family will switch. We have only one under-contract iPhone and we can sell it and pay the AT&T penalty.
If no other company gets iPhones, I will find out how good Droid really is.
Update: A computer generated (location customized) AT&T response has some relevant details:
… We see that the coverage around your home is considered to be our best coverage and it includes 3G service. We also see that there is a planned tower about 2 miles from your home at Osceola and Lexington Parkway S. This tower is slated to be operational mid August 2010…
…Please contact Customer Care at 611 from a cell phone or at 1-800-331-0500 from landline phone if the problem persists. Have your wireless device available to allow for proper troubleshooting if problems persist…
So even though our coverage is failing on multiple phones, AT&T considers it to be pretty good. There’s something wrong there.
The 3 miles tower is too far away to help us directly, but it’s close enough to reduce the burden on our proximal towers. On the other hand by August we’ll have the 2010 iPhone and the 3G iPad – so any additional local AT&T capacity will be swamped.
If you do try to phone the 800 number, check the gethuman recommendations:
Press "1" at the system asking for your phone number, and then press "0" at next prompt.
Things are unlikely to improve.
The new history is deep history
When we think about science, most of us think of dramatic breakthroughs. We think Darwin and Wallace, Einstein and Bohr, Copernicus and Curie and we imagine everything changed overnight.
Most science, however, develops in bits and pieces, twisting and turning, waxing and waning, until, after thirty years, things are new. Even the dramatic shifts, like natural selection, took decades to get from radical to mainstream.
If you’re at all curious about things, you notice this in a single lifespan. Consider deep history; the story of humans from 150K to 3K years ago. In the past 30 years discoveries from genomics, climate research, linguistics, plant research, translation, anthropology and archaeology, combined with the revision of old biases, have dramatically changed our understanding of deep history. In each case, of course, computation has been a fundamental driver. That’s how it works – new instruments make new science.
It’s been growing slowly from all directions, but the sum is a very different world from what some of us learned in the 1970s. The human brain is evolving and changing far more dramatically than we imagined, and that evolution has not slowed with modernity. Our concepts of human speciation are being transformed; there were many “species” of human coexisting into deep history – and, like dogs and wolves, they probably crossed often.
Pre-agricultural humans were far more populous and widespread than we once imagined; the large populations of pre-invasion (early agricultural and hunter-gatherer) North America probably reflect worldwide pre-agricultural patterns.
Even after the development of agriculture and writing we see thousand year intervals of relative stasis in China, Egypt and Mesopotamia. How could this be when our fundamental technologies change in decades. Are the minds of modern Egyptians radically different from the minds of only 6,000 years ago? Why? Why do we see this graph at this time in human history?
What did humans do in Georgian caves for 30,000 years? Thirty thousand years of waving and sewing and nothing changes?! They could not have had the same brains we have. They seem more … Neandertal.
Fascinating times, and there’s much more here than I can address in one post. That’s why I’m adding a new tag (label) for this blog -- “deep history” in anticipation of much more to come.
For now see also:
- Dienekes' Anthropology Blog- Paleolithic flax fibres from Georgia (Kvavadze et al. 2009)
- Multiregional evolution lives! - john hawks weblog
- Why Humanity Loves, and Needs, Cities - Economix Blog - NYTimes.
- In Our Time, Babylon
- In Our Time, Akhenaten (He reminds me of Kim Jong-il)
- In Our Time, The Library at Nineveh
Thursday, April 22, 2010
How bubbles destroy software - the story of Broderbund
It turns out there's now a Mac-only "Mavis Beacon" product sold by "Software MacKiev" (Ukranian Mac contract software development) and another product (XP/Mac) sold by "Encore Software". The Encore Mac product is buggy and unsupported, the MacKiev version sounds a bit more promising.
... Softkey ...purchased The Learning Company for $606 million in cash and then adopted its name...Brøderbund was purchased by The Learning Company in 1998 for about US$420 million in stock...
In a move to rationalize costs, The Learning Company promptly terminated 500 employees at Brøderbund the same year,[16] representing 42% of the company's workforce.
Then in 1999 the combined company was bought by Mattel for $3.6 billion ... Jill Barad, the [Mattel] CEO, ended up being forced out in a climate of investor outrage.
This kind of churn is death to software. Software needs continuity to survive. The cycle of acquisition and 'rationalization" creates zombie software that staggers on, brainless, for years ... then dies.Mattel then gave away The Learning Company in September 2000 to Gores Technology Group, a private acquisitions firm, for a share of whatever Gores could obtain by selling the company. In 2001, Gores sold The Learning Company's entertainment holdings to Ubisoft, and most of the other holdings, including the Brøderbund name, to Irish company Riverdeep.[19] Currently, all of Brøderbund's games, such as the Myst series, are published by Ubisoft...
The tech bubble made a few people rich, and it destroyed a lot of good products. Not to mention costing Mattel's shareholders quite a few pennies.
After the tech bubble burst came 9/11, then the great asset bubble and, not least, the Bush administration. One, two, three, four. No wonder America is reeling.
[1] At one time Mavis Beacon was sold under the Broderbund name, but by that time Broderbund might have been owned by Riverdeep. I include this story as an example of all the things the tech bubble killed.
Mavis Beacon Teaches Typing was created more than twenty years ago, and was first published in 1987. Software MacKiev’s involvement goes back to 1998 when our company developed version 9 for the Macintosh — both the US and UK editions. Then, a decade later, we had the opportunity to get involved with Mavis Beacon again — this time as the developer and publisher of a new generation of Mavis Beacon software for Mac OS X. We are so pleased and proud to be bringing the kind of quality you’ve come to expect from the creative labs of Software MacKiev to this new edition.
... Software MacKiev develops and publishes only the Mavis Beacon Teaches Typing 2008 and 2009 Deluxe, International, and School Editions for Mac OS X. The previous versions of Mavis Beacon were made for really old Macs with OS 9 by a company called Broderbund. A company called Encore has since taken over the broderbund.com Web site and continue to distribute the outdated software, which — as you point out — doesn’t work as it should...
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Exercise, weight loss and dementia
Weighing the Evidence on Exercise - NYTimes.com:
... When researchers affiliated with the Pennington center had volunteers reduce their energy balance for a study last year by either cutting their calorie intakes by 25 percent or increasing their daily exercise by 12.5 percent and cutting their calories by 12.5 percent, everyone involved lost weight. They all lost about the same amount of weight too — about a pound a week. But in the exercising group, the dose of exercise required was nearly an hour a day of moderate-intensity activity, what the federal government currently recommends for weight loss but “a lot more than what many people would be able or willing to do,” Ravussin says."An hour a day would be wonderful -- if my kids were grown.
The NYT article has the complex details. The effect of exercise on weight varies by age and gender, and between individuals as well. In general, however, it's not a good way to lose weight. Diet is more efficient.
On the other hand exercise seems to be essential to keeping weight stable after a weight loss diet. How and why? Nobody knows for sure.
Sitting turns out to be really, really, bad. We've had hints of that over the past years, but now it's getting pinned down. We don't know why, but sitting promotes obesity.
Incidentally, it's all harder for women. But you knew that.
- Sleep is more important for brain health than we've imagined.
- Exercise is more important for brain health than I thought 4-7 years ago. (I like to exercise, so it wasn't a prejudice against activity. It's just weird science.)
- Exercise helps both sleep and brain health - so it's a double good. It doesn't lead to weight loss, but it's essential to maintain a stable weight.
- We all need to diet all the time, so we need cultural and industry changes to make that very hard activity easier.
- Obesity is almost inevitable in a food rich world, especially when we eliminate smoking and increase sitting (at computers). We need a miracle drug, we need cultural changes, we need mobile devices, we need gas to hit $10 a gallon.
- Sitting is oddly bad for us. We should all be standing and walking.
- Try not to get a concussion (but almost all enjoyable exercise increases head injury risk :-). Don't let your kids play football (which will eventually go the way of boxing).
- BBC NEWS | Health | Creatine 'boosts brain power' 2003: Right. This went nowhere. A good reminder of how worthless most press releases are. We're still hearing about the huge onslaught of cognitive enhancer abuse, but it's mostly media imagination.
- Obesity increases dementia risk: Winner of stupid medical article of the month 2005: Early reports on the obesity/dementia causal relationship. I'm very skeptical then. I still am on the obesity side of things.
- Exercise and Alzheimer's: How to fix the demented media 2006: I really didn't believe this particular correlation, but since then it's shown up in more persuasive animal studies.
- Alzheimer's: there's not much you can do about it 2006: Head injury avoidance remains important -- but also lifestyle constraining. We all die one way or another!
- Exercise and cognition - I'm still skeptical 2007: I'm starting to wonder if I was wrong to dismiss a causal relationship between exercise and brain health
- Skinnies burn fast, plumpies less demented 2007: In this study the elder skinnies became demented faster than the pleasingly plump.
- Delaying the inevitable onset of Alzheimer's: exercise is the new best hope 2008: When I admin that it does look like exercise is oddly good for brain health.
- Wasting money: Ginkgo biloba joins the pile 2008 - Anyone remember when Gingko biloba was going to help dementia? Fail.
- Dementia is normal - and what that means: 2009 - We're beginning to realize dementia really is inevitable -- though there's still hope to push it back. (Death and homeliness are also inevitable)
- Avandia (rosiglitazone) for Rat Alzheimer's Prophylaxis?! 2006 - It didn't do too well in human trials. It also promotes obesity, which is kind of interesting.
- Dietary supplements stop dementia in beagles? AAAS proceedings 2004 - Nothing came of this!
Monday, April 19, 2010
Hysteresis
Hysteresis - Definition and More from the Free Merriam-Webster Dictionarya retardation of an effect when the forces acting upon a body are changed (as if from viscosity or internal friction); especially : a lagging in the values of resulting magnetization in a magnetic material (as iron) due to a changing magnetizing force
Sunday, April 18, 2010
Electronic health record use and physician multitasking performance
Llamas and my stegosaurus: Living with a limited brainI've been disappointed that there have been few studies of how physician cognition adjusts to using automation tools (electronic health records, etc) during patient care. These tools all seem to have a substantially higher cognitive burden than phone use, but the impact of phone conversations on driving performance has been studied to death. Do physicians become more irritation and distracted when they try to simultaneously talk with patients, think about the answers, and use current clinical software?
Some interesting research has come out recently about the processing capacity of brains. For example, that the medial prefrontal cortex can only handle two tasks at once, or that working memory can only handle about 7 items at a time (but what's an item?), or that when people are actively trying to remember something complicated, their impulse control is reduced. In fact, there has been a lot of research showing that exerting the will to make a difficult decision uses a fuel resource (sugar from the blood) that many of these other tasks also need.
What happens when these resources are used up? When we have been thinking too hard, or have been under heavy stress, or haven't had enough to eat or sleep, or are trying to remember too many things, or are trying to drive, or need a fix,we fall back on a simpler part of the brain. We lose the ability to think rationally, to choose future benefit over immediate reward; the ability to choose at all is reduced. We become irritable, forgetful, angry, quick to argue....