Cricket’s $149 Android and the future $4000 Dell desktop

We are way past the tipping point if the no contract $149 Android phone is real [1]. The replacement for the $150 ChromeOS Netbook has come before the netbook, and Google’s $80 ultra-portable (with FM radio a cell phone too!) is a year ahead of schedule – though Microsoft’s lawsuits will slow things down.

After the lawsuits settle down the contract free low end iPhone will go for $250 in 2012 and Android will hit a billion users by 2013 (including China’s forked Android phone). By then RIM, Windows Mobile and so on will be history. Nokia and Motorola will make Android phones. Microsoft will be an IP parasite, a shadow of its former self.

So what about Dell?

Here’s where it gets funny. I’m used to thinking Dell will go away. After all, even today’s phones can have external monitors and keyboards. Who needs a Dell after 2012?

Well, verticals will. Software development. Servers.

Thing is, vertical gear doesn’t sell for $800 a pop. Remember what Sun workstations cost when Sun was profitable? Desktop prices are going to start going up, and up. By 2013 I expect Dell will sell far fewer machines – but they’ll be much more expensive. One day we will see the $4000 desktop, even as much of Africa carries a supercompter in their pocket.

[1] But what will it cost after the patent suits?

Why you should vote for the Tea Party’s coven in the century of the fruitbat

Christine O’Donnell. Linda McMahon. Sharron Angle.

Names to conjure with! The Tea Party’s fruitbat coven strikes fear into the hearts of rationalists. Together with Minnesota’s Michelle Bachman and President Sarah Palin they …

Oh, excuse me. I’ve got to shut the window. Susan’s grave spinning can be kind of distracting.

Ok, where was I? Got it. Looks grim. Doomed we are. True, Minnesota survived Ventura [1], and this group can’t be as bad as Cheney/Bush, but America is in a grim place. Shouldn’t rationalists be buying gardens in the countryside?

Well, yes, we probably should. But I will make a case for why rationalists should vote fruitbat, even though I lack the convictional courage to do it myself.

Let’s consider just five of the wee challenges that face America in the next thirty years, and think about how Vulcans (my people – Team Obama) would do compared to fruitbats.

First, there’s the relative decline of America as a world power and the growth of American poverty. Obviously the fruitbats will speed this along. But relative decline is going to happen anyway. There’s nothing magical about America. Our post-WW II preeminence was largely a matter of circumstance. Since then we’ve done some things right, and, especially in the Cheney/Bush era, many, many things wrong. We Vulcans managed to avert, for now, Great Depression II, but we couldn’t finish the game. Advantage Vulcan, but only by degree.

Secondly, global climate change. Two words – Nixon. China. We tried, we failed. The fruitbats can’t do worse, and only they can talk to the denialists. Advantage fruitbat.

Thirdly, the end of participatory democracy – China and America converge. Enlightenment thinkers couldn’t anticipate the positive feeback loops that make American law and regulation ever more favorable to large corporate entities (and billionaires, though they are less predictable). We Vulcans have failed on this front. Advantage fruitbat.

Fourth – the reason-resistant bomb. Iran is only the best current example. Mutual Assured Destruction worked [2] because the enemies feared death. Russia, China and the EU are all secular states, and American leadership religion is mostly skin deep (until Bush II [4]). If true believers have control of nuclear delivery systems, and if they believe their deity will either protect them or give them paradise, then we’re in a new world of hurt. It’s hard to see how Vulcans can help here. Maybe fruitbats can talk to them. Maybe religious logicians [3] will stop worrying about a fruitbat led declining America. Advantage fruitbat, albeit a small one.

Lastly, there’s the Big One. AI, better described as AS (artificial sentience). Skynet – the smarter than you think [3] machines. We don’t survive this one. Vulcan leadership, by sustaining American science, will move this day forward. Fruitbats, by accelerating the decline of America, may slow it down by five to ten years. That might move the end time out of my lifespan, though, alas, probably not out of my children’s lifespan. Advantage fruitbat.

If we add it all up, Vulcans only clearly win on one of the five big challenges. Yes, the fruitbats do accelerate the decline of America – but that might also slow AS work.

I can’t force myself to vote fruitbat. I’m not that rational; I’ll continue to campaign for Vulcan rule. In the near term it is clearly the better choice. If the fruitbats win, however, there is some (slightly) longer term consolation.

- footnotes

[1] Yes, Minnesota is whackier than California. We don’t get the credit we deserve.

[2] To my amazement. The long post-fusion survival of civilization is a strong argument for divine (or other) intervention.

[3] I’m impressed and disturbed that the NYT put this series together, even though it’s annoying that the last article managed to miss the historic Cyc and active Wolfram Alpha AI projects.

[3] They’re not whackos. Given his stated beliefs and values Ahmadinejad is more rational (for a certain definition of rational), and thus more scary but less annoying, than the fruitbats.

[4] Carter was very religious, but in a peculiarly rational way. He’s a true anomaly.

Krugman takes on Rupert Murdoch

Took longer than I’d hoped, but at last Krugman has Rupert Murdoch in the crosshairs.

This won’t be his last Murdoch editorial. We all need to stop saying “Fox” when we mean Murdoch (emphases mine) …

Paul Krugman - Fear and Favor - NYTimes.com

… As Politicorecently pointed out, every major contender for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination who isn’t currently holding office and isn’t named Mitt Romney is now a paid contributor to Fox News. Now, media moguls have often promoted the careers and campaigns of politicians they believe will serve their interests. But directly cutting checks to political favorites takes it to a whole new level of blatancy.

Arguably, this shouldn’t be surprising. Modern American conservatism is, in large part, a movement shaped by billionaires and their bank accounts, and assured paychecks for the ideologically loyal are an important part of the system. Scientists willing to deny the existence of man-made climate change, economists willing to declare that tax cuts for the rich are essential to growth, strategic thinkers willing to provide rationales for wars of choice, lawyers willing to provide defenses of torture, all can count on support from a network of organizations that may seem independent on the surface but are largely financed by a handful of ultrawealthy families.

And these organizations have long provided havens for conservative political figures not currently in office. Thus when Senator Rick Santorum was defeated in 2006, he got a new job as head of the America’s Enemies program at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, a think tank that has received funding from the usual sources: the Koch brothers, the Coors family, and so on.

Now Mr. Santorum is one of those paid Fox contributors contemplating a presidential run. What’s the difference?

Well, for one thing, Fox News seems to have decided that it no longer needs to maintain even the pretense of being nonpartisan.

Nobody who was paying attention has ever doubted that Fox is, in reality, a part of the Republican political machine; but the network — with its Orwellian slogan, “fair and balanced” — has always denied the obvious. Officially, it still does. But by hiring those G.O.P. candidates, while at the same time making million-dollar contributions to the Republican Governors Association and the rabidly anti-Obama United States Chamber of Commerce, Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation, which owns Fox, is signaling that it no longer feels the need to make any effort to keep up appearances.

Something else has changed, too: increasingly, Fox News has gone from merely supporting Republican candidates to anointing them. Christine O’Donnell, the upset winner of the G.O.P. Senate primary in Delaware, is often described as the Tea Party candidate, but given the publicity the network gave her, she could equally well be described as the Fox News candidate. Anyway, there’s not much difference: the Tea Party movement owes much of its rise to enthusiastic Fox coverage.

As the Republican political analyst David Frum put it, “Republicans originally thought that Fox worked for us, and now we are discovering we work for Fox” — literally, in the case of all those non-Mitt-Romney presidential hopefuls. It was days later, by the way, that Mr. Frum was fired by the American Enterprise Institute. Conservatives criticize Fox at their peril.

So the Ministry of Propaganda has, in effect, seized control of the Politburo. What are the implications?

Perhaps the most important thing to realize is that when billionaires put their might behind “grass roots” right-wing action, it’s not just about ideology: it’s also about business. What the Koch brothers have bought with their huge political outlays is, above all, freedom to pollute. What Mr. Murdoch is acquiring with his expanded political role is the kind of influence that lets his media empire make its own rules…

We need to name Murdoch, we need to name the billionaires who wish to rule America. They are succeeding.

We need to remember what Berlusconi did to Italy.

We need to subscribe to the NYT.

Verizon scam: Emergent fraud earns a fine

This is an old and universal cell phone scam, but somehow Verizon got caught ...

Verizon Wireless to Pay Refunds for Data Charges - NYTimes.com

... Verizon Wireless will pay up to $90 million to 15 million cellphone customers who were wrongly charged, one of the largest-ever refunds by a telecommunications company...

I wonder if David Pogue's Nov 2009 NYT column played  a role in the settlement. Maybe AT&T will refund me the $5/month I pay to block my son from inadvertent data access.

I'm sure Verizon will still money on the deal, especially after they write off the cost of the refund. (There's no wrongdoing, it's all an accident, so they can write it off).  I'm reasonably sure they never explicitly planned this fraud, it was simply a happy accident.

See also:

• Emergence: how entropy and incentives create scams
• Mobile phone fraud - The accidental data charge and other scams (Pogue, 11/2009). This post has a nice collection of similar scams if any DA is interested.
• Gordon's Notes: Emergent fraud: Anthem and automatic payment denials
• Gordon's Notes: 21st century deception and the evolution of the emergent mind

Transparent society: automated monitoring of employees

I own Minority Report. I need to watch it before it's entirely passe.

For example, Social Intelligence is marketing employee behavior data mining to corporations. Forget spotting terrorists with Total Information Awareness (oh, you've already forgotten?), it's much more profitable to spot employees with a substance problem. Plus, it doesn't freak out the Tea Party if corporations do it.

If corporations don't buy, SI argues, they'll be sued the next time an employee goes postal. They should have known, lawyers will argue (and they will).

SI is also opening a subsidiary that will use bots to generate optimal online identities; burying the signal in noise. This service will be sold to employees. (I'm pretty sure Stross covered this in Accelerando, but there's lots of prior art here.)

I was joking about the employee service. SI might as well do it though. If they don't, someone else will.

There are several business opportunities here. I'm particularly looking forward to the related hire-a-hacker fund. Ten thousand people will anonymously donate a dollar for an SI related initiative.

(via Schneier).

PS. The Schneier comment thread includes some examples of name collisions and identity errors. I have one of those. My true name is somewhat unusual, and one time I flew in to give a talk only to be met by two police officers. They were looking for me as a material witness in an arson investigation. I was dressed for the presentation, so their expressions were funny to watch. Evidently I didn't look like the guy they expected ...

Google's ad platform is a gaping hole in iOS parental controls

I know Apple's OS X parental controls are broken. I thought things were better with iOS. Then I discovered a wide range of apps, from PublicRadio to WolframAlpha, provided WebKit based embedded browsers that bypass parental Safari lockouts.

Today our residential parental controls tester discovered that Google's AdMob ads give him full access to YouTube from Pandora.app.

iOS parental controls are just as broken as OS X parental controls. Since YouTube and Safari are essentially NC17 ("explict") apps, every AdMob or iPhone.app that provides access is arguably NC17 too.

What a mess.

Culturally, I'm surprised how little interest this gets. The iPad platform in particular is going to be big in all schools. Have parents given up, are they in denial, or do they just not know?

See also:

• OS X Parental Controls: Never more broken than with Apple's MobileMe
• iPhone for kids: The Achilles Heel

The key to happiness

This is disturbingly close to what I think ...

I would say "editing" rather than "self-delusion", but, really, that's quibbling.

Why do corporations (firms) exist?

Economists used to wonder, from a theoretical perspective, why "firms" including companies, and especially large corporations, exist (aka theory of the firm). In 1937 Coase thought that while corporations didn't allocate labor and capitol as well as the market, this was offset by lower transaction costs.

Of course transactions costs in the net era are far less than in Coase's time, so this doesn't explain why corporations remain so entrenched.

This still seems like a valid question. Does knowledge work, in particular, scale all that well? Movies seem to be put together by loose coalitions of small to medium sized companies, why aren't more things done like that?

I suspect most people familiar with large corporations would agree that often the company seems much less than the sum of its parts. In particular, the absence of internal markets can make intra-company collaboration less efficient than market based collaboration. Corporations, on the inside, operate like the command economies of the Soviet Empire (or, for that matter, like today's China -- which is doing well for the moment).

I'm trying to put together a list of things that large corporations can do uniquely well. I wasn't at all impressed with the conventional "theory of the firm" list. Here's mine ...

1. Act without the restraints of antitrust law. A large corporation can do many things that would require collusion to be done by smaller entities.
2. Change laws, particularly accounting standards and tax laws, to favor large corporations and lower their cost of capitol. This creates a positive feedback loop where tax laws and accounting rules favor large corporations, which in turn influence laws and rules that favor large corporations and so on.
3. Corporations can buy senators and lesser politicians, again without collusion.
4. Corporations can engage in financial warfare, cutting off suppliers to smaller competitors, blocking access to capitol, and so on.
5. Corporations can capture regulators.
6. Corporations may be able to create and institute processes that allow them to do knowledge work with "average" knowledge workers instead of temperamental and expensive "stars". (I don't think this actually works, but a lot of effort is spent on this.)
7. Corporations can buy A and above ratings from (corrupt) rating agencies.
8. Once a corporation exists, it has an unusual ability to sustain itself even when its mission ends (like the inquisition)

Taking these items as a whole, it's apparent that once corporations are established, they are large and powerful enough to change their ecosystem to suit them. Rather like some primates.

I'll update my list as I get more ideas. Any suggestions?

See also:

My stuff

• The Corporation - what next? (8/2010)
• How big should financial firms be? (3/2009)
• Troubled capitalism: The corporate entity (Iain Banks, 8/2010)
• Self sustaining entities: corporations and the Spanish Inquisition (6/28/2006)
• The corporation as psychopath (Economist book review, 2004 - I've updated the post with a copy of the since lost review)
• Beyond the first cause: Deepwater Horizon and the publicly traded company (6/20/21010)
• Understanding the elections - what's really changed (11/4/2010)
• The morality of markets - and a response to hunger (9/28/2010)

Other people's

• The Nature of the Firm - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
• Anti-Dismal: Williamson and the theory of firm (10/16/2009)
• Llamas and my stegosaurus: Artificial Persons (1/22/2010)
• The Corporation Film and The Corporation: The Pathological Pursuit of Profit and Power Joel Bakan (2004)

Update 2/25/11: In a Krugman article I learn that Williamson won the Nobel in 2009 for work in the 70s on the theory of the firm. So Williamson extended Coase ...

Williamson argues that the firm is best regarded as a "governance structure," a means of organizing a set of contractual relations among individual agents. The firm, then, consists of an entrepreneur-owner, the tangible assets he owns, and a set of employment relationships ...

Personally I wasn't that impressed with the descriptions I read of Williamson's work, but Krugman likes it (emphases mine)...

Oliver Williamson shared the 2009 Nobel mainly because of his work on a question that may seem obvious, but is much less so once you think about it: why are there so many big companies? Why not just rely on markets to coordinate activity among individuals or small firms? Why, in effect, do we have a lot of fairly large command-and-control economies embedded in our market system?

Williamson answered this in terms of the difficulties of writing complete contracts; when the tasks that need to be done are complex, so that you can’t fully specify what people should do in advance, there can be a lot of slippage and strategic behavior if you rely on market incentives; in such cases it can be better to do these things in-house, so that you can simply tell people to do something a particular way or to change their behavior.

... there are times when it’s better to rely on central planning than to leave things up to the market...

Krugman's "Central planning" comment sent the usual suspects frothing mad. They've obviously never lived in a large corporation. I have. Krugman is spot on.

 

Will this work with your printer?

When I exhausted the (fake) almost empty cartridge that came with my $70 printer I stuck masking tape over the sensor openings to turn off the toner light and ordered a $44 Brother TN360 Toner Cartridge.

Yes, the replacement (real) cartridge is more than half the cost of the printer. Shades of ink jet hell, but only faint shades.

That's not the interesting bit.

The interesting bit is that Amazon told me it would work with the printer I bought my mother and the printer I have now, but not another two bought from Amazon about five years ago.

Convenient, yes. Unnerving? No, I've gotten used to this.

Guatemalan STD in 1946, American torture in 2006

The American physicians who tested the use of penicillin to prevent syphilis in the Guatemalan schizophrenics they infected knew they were doing evil in the 1940s. They feared exposure of their experiments.

Cutler went on to run the Tuskagee experiments. I suppose he had a successful career. The medical school that graduated him should create a monument to this alumnus.

We're no better now. Cheney and Bush authorized war crimes. Physicians, medics and especially psychologists participated in some of those crimes. A substantial percentage of Americans, generally close to a majority, support the use of governmentally sanctioned torture. The GOP effectively runs on a pro-torture platform.

It may be another 60 years before the American people come to terms with our crimes.

Sometimes I regret the absence of hell. Cheney and Cutler could spend some quality time together, but then I suppose a large percentage of Americans would need to join them.

Warp drives and extracting energy from information

I'm behind the curve on metamaterials (emphasis mine) ...

Technology Review: Blogs: arXiv blog: How to Build a Warp Drive Using Metamaterials

...Metamaterials are substances in which their ability to support electric and magnetic fields can be changed. Fiddle with these properties in just the right way and you can steer electromagnetic waves in all kinds of strange and exotic ways.

The highest profile use of this idea is to build invisibility cloaks but there's another more fascinating application. It turns out there is a formal mathematical analogy between the way metamaterials bend light and the way gravity does it. Inside metamaterials, electromagnetic space becomes distorted in exactly the same way as spacetime in general relatively.

That means physicists can use metamaterials to simulate the universe itself and all the weird phenomenon of general relativity. We've looked at various attempts to recreate black holes, the Big Bang and even multiverses...

I liked the May 2010 multiverse link ...

Today, Igor Smolyaninov at the University of Maryland in College Park... says it is possible to create metamaterials that are analogous to various kinds of spaces dreamt up by cosmologists to explain aspects of the Universe.

In these theories, space can have different numbers of dimensions that become compactified early in the Universe's history, leaving the three dimensions of space and one of time (3+1) that we see today. In symmetries of these spaces depend on the dimensions and the way they are compactified and this in turn determines the laws of physics in these regions.

It turns out, says Smolyaninov, that it is possible to create metamaterials with electromagnetic spaces in which some dimensions are compactified. He says it is even possible to create substances in which the spaces vary from region to region, so a space with 2 ordinary and 2 compactified dimensions, could be adjacent to a space with just 2 ordinary dimensions and also connected to a 2d space with 1 compactified dimension and so on.

The wormholes that make transitions between these regions would be especially interesting. It ought to be possible to observe the birth of photons in these regions and there is even a sense in which the transition could represent the birth of a new universe."A similar topological transition may have given birth to our own Universe," says Smolyaninov.

He goes on to show that these materials can be used to create a multiverse in which different universes have different properties. In fact it ought to be possible create universes in which different laws of physics arise.

That opens up a new area for optical devices. Smolyaninov gives the example of electromagnetic universes in which photons behave as if they are massive, massless or charged depending on the topology of space and the laws of physics this gives rise to...

In more recent related news Hawking radiation has also been detected in a non-metamaterial optical experiment that created a physical system with the mathematical properties of black hole.

Talk about the unreasonable effectiveness of mathematics. The universe is feeling awfully recursive; maybe Wolfram was on to something. If you're going to run a simulated universe, it's good to make it highly recursive.

Meanwhile another group of physicists have implemented Maxwell's demon, and have allegedly demonstrated the extraction of energy from information. Soon they'll extract so much information they'll create  a black hole (sorry, I'm feeling a bit giddy).

Oh, I almost forgot. You can't make an FTL warp drive, but maybe you can make a 1/3 c warp drive. I wonder if the warped space time would make gravitational wakes ...

Update 10/4/10: More on information physics. How long before someone announces that they've discovered how to reboot the universe?

A habitable planet around Gliese 581

Twenty light years away an ancient largeish planet is tidally locked to a red giant.

The star system is about 9 billion years old.  Time enough.

The last time I ran a Drake Equation estimate I ended up with between 10 and 170 civilizations currently active in our galaxy. This data point pushes the posterior-probability to the higher end of that range.

We don't run into them though. So they must all be pretty darned shortlived ....

iPad Mathematica and Rainbow's End

Rainbow's End (2006) was a bit of a disappointment compared to Fast Times at Fairmont High, but Vinge still did a good job of anticipating this 2010 Mathematica post on learning in the computer era.

Hey, these days 4 years is pretty good for science fiction prognostication.

Synchronidentaly Wolfram is singing the praises of the iPad as the best platform for his "new kind of science" tome ($10). You can't (yet) run a true Mathematica client on an iPad, but you can run the $1.99 Wolfram Alpha iPad app -- which is closer than you might think.

Did I mention the iPad app is $2? Excuse me while I hide in the corner and wimper a bit.

See also.

Newfoundland hammered by hurricane

Not only was a born in Canada, I spent a formative two months as a medical student in St. Anthony Newfoundland.

So if there'd been any US coverage, I'd have noticed Newfoundland was hammered by Hurricane Igor a week ago ...

Hurricane Igor (2010) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

... Significant wind and flooding damage was reported across much of the island of Newfoundland as Igor passed just to the east. Many communities had to declare a state of emergency and some parts of the community of Clarenville were evacuated due to flooding. 238 mm (9.37 inches) of rain fell on the Burin Peninsula at St. Lawrence, making Hurricane Igor at least the third wettest tropical cyclone to be recorded in Canada; roads and bridges were completely washed away as well.[30] The Bonavista Peninsula and Avalon Peninsula were also hard hit, with severe flooding in many communities in those areas as well. Power outages were also reported in many communities in eastern Newfoundland as a result of the strong winds.[31] Preliminary assessments place losses in Newfoundland well over $100 million.[32] One person is dead from Random Island after reportedly being swept out to sea...

There are only 480,000 people in Newfoundland, and it is as poor as it is beautiful. Poor by Canadian standards, that is.  100 million is a lot of damage there.

The lead article in The Telegram today is a convenience store robbery. So either they're recovering well, or St John's leading newspaper is only a facade. I suspect both are true. Newfies are a tough crowd though, a hurricane might not really register.

Trust and credential management: MyOpenID

I've been preoccupied lately with credential (un/password) management. I think the geek community has gotten confused by identity management isseus. We need to start with credential management, then associate identities (avatars, facets, personae, etc) with credentials.

I like my four un/pw proposa1 + one major password. So I wondered if anyone was going to do it.

That made me think again about MyOpenID, and what I wrote about Simplenote. I love Simplenote, but there are security risks to trusting them with a large volume of private information.

How much greater then, is the risk of trusting one's most precious credentials to MyOpenID.  What business model do they have? Why don't they already provide the approach I'm advocating? Should I be concerned that the MyOpenID blog link goes to a blog that never mentions the service?

To their credit MyOpenID provides an easy to find and use account deletion process. I have deleted my account. It just doesn't make sense to make a company that might vanish at any time a major holder of my digital identity.

See also:

• Gordon's Tech: security
• Gordon's Notes: security
• Gordon's Notes: Google's two factor authentication and why you need four OpenID accounts
• Gordon's Tech: My Google (gmail) account is hacked - by ductus.com
• Help