Saturday, November 15, 2008

Future Shock and the Southern white male: Oil, GM, Nascar, Pallor, and Obama

I've been thinking about these numbers ...
Southern Whites for McCain

... Alabama 88%
Mississippi 88%
Louisiana 84%
Georgia 76%
...
Arkansas 68%
North Carolina 64%
...
California 46%
Connecticut 46%
Minnesota 46%
New York 46%
...
Massachusetts 42%
Vermont 31%
In most states there's about an 8% male/female party gap, so the numbers suggest that 92% of the white men at the heart of the slave-holding confederacy voted for McCain.

Those white men have had a rough few years.

Five years ago Nascar culture was ascendant. Now Nascar is fading. Five years ago oil was cheaper than water, now we're in Peak Oil land. Four years ago Bush had finished off John Kerry, now Bush is a fading memory.

Two years ago GM's Hummer was selling well, now both GM and its Hummer are dying.

A year ago these men, largely poor and the victims of America's worst schools, held their ethnic identity tight. Now pallor is passe.

A few months ago they were the coddled core of the GOP. In the new electoral map they're irrelevant ...

Well, at least they still have Rush Limbaugh.

Some look on the fallen mighty with undisguised scorn ...
Frank Schaeffer: Sarah Palin Will Never Be President -- Trust Me

... The small smear of red on the otherwise blue electoral map looks more like a minor bloodstain on a dirty Band-Aid than anything resembling a national political party. Who voted for McCain/Palin in bigger numbers than they even voted for Bush/Cheney? Only one shrinking group: uneducated white folks in the deep south and a few folks in Appalachia. Take away the white no-college-backwoods-and/or-southern McCain/Palin vote and the Republicans would have been approaching single digit electoral college oblivion...

... The Republican Party--and I speak as a former lifelong Republican who, up through the 2000 primary campaign supported John McCain and even worked for him by arguing his case on various conservative and religious radio stations--is now the toy of the Rush Limbaugh windbags...
Scorn is never a good idea. It's a particularly bad idea to kick sand on a population with limited education, limited opportunities, deep culture shock, and disproportionate enrollment in the US military. I've been listening to stories of past cultural upheaval; they're enlightening.

Maybe we can't do affirmative action for the southern white male, but we need to keep 'em in mind. They've got a lot to work through, and it would be good to keep 'em out of trouble.

Update 11/20/08: further analysis, via DeLong.


Sunday, November 09, 2008

Escape from the Cloud - lessons from my surgeon days

"Surgeon days" you say?

When was John a surgeon?

Well, technically McGill gave me an MD,CM degree, and I think the CM was Latin for master of surgery. More to the point, I assisted with surgeries in the good old days of open abdomens and hands-on anatomy, before scopes made things so dull.

Some surgeries, frankly, are pretty easy. Anyone with a modicum of attention, diligence, and practice could do 'em.

As long as nothing goes wrong.

When the feces fly (inside joke there), that's when those brutal hours in the surgery residency matter.

I thought of that as I contemplated the ruins of my recent iPhone and Cloud experiences. Most of the time I don't miss all those Outlook features.

Except when something goes wrong, and I'm up the creek and paddle-free.

It's the old story. When everyone praises the Cloud, it's time to bail. A lot of Cloud companies are struggling, and when they go ...

So goes your data.

Even if they don't fail, there are too many gotchas. God Help You if you start synchronizing non-trivial data across the Cloud.

I'm ok with Google Calendar, GMail, Picasa and many Google properties. Outside of Google, however, I'm putting a moratorium on storing any data I care about in the Cloud.

It ain't ready for the likes of me.

Ok, so that's only two people. Still, the Canary in the Coal Mine has just keeled over.

Be warned.

Hope on the way - Obama team to undo Bush regulatory attacks

Under the radar regulatory and rule changes were a critical part of the GOP attack on functioning government.

Obama's team intends to repair 8 years of destruction in short order ...
Obama Ready To Quickly Reverse Bush Actions - Follow Me Here…

...A team of four dozen advisers, working for months in virtual solitude, set out to identify regulatory and policy changes Obama could implement soon after his inauguration...

Friday, November 07, 2008

Republican Siamese Fighting Fish

In an aquarium Siamese Fighting Fish (Bettas) will fight to the death.

The GOP is now stuck in the aquarium of defeat. They're even attacking the propaganda wing of the GOP ...
Palin in spotlight as Republicans turn on each other | World news | The Guardian

... Rush Limbaugh, behemoth of rightwing radio, took to the airwaves to declare war on two enemies: Barack Obama and the Republican party. Bloggers at FreeRepublic.com, an internet hub for conservatives, announced a boycott of Fox News and John McCain's aides fell over one another to leak embarrassing details about the campaign to the press...

... "Ladies and gentlemen, it is worse than I thought," Limbaugh told listeners. "What the Republican party, led by disgruntled and failed McCain staffers, is trying to do to Sarah Palin, is unconscionable ... We're going to be taking on two things here [over] the next four years: Obama, and our own party establishment."..

...The main ammunition in the war was a lengthening list of allegations against Palin: that she thought Africa was a country; that she failed to inform the campaign about a scheduled call with Nicolas Sarkozy which turned out to be a prank; that she refused to undergo coaching prior to her disastrous interviews with CBS anchor Katie Couric; that she couldn't name the three countries in the North America Free Trade Agreement; and that the party had spent up to $70,000 (£45,000) on "wardrobe items" for Palin and "luxury goods" for her husband, in addition to the $150,000 already reported. (Some of the claims were revealed by Fox, hence the boycott.)

The New York Times reported that when Palin met McCain in Phoenix on Tuesday night, she held the text of a speech she planned to deliver, in defiance of campaign convention, and had to be overruled....

... RedState.com, announced Operation Leper, designed to blacklist campaign staffers believed to be responsible...

... There was speculation that the culprits may be former aides to Mitt Romney, positioning their hero for a future presidential run...

... Steve Schmidt, a senior McCain adviser, speaking to reporters on the candidate's plane, was making little effort to hide his disdain for Palin. Asked if her presence on the ticket had been a disadvantage, he twice refused to answer.

Randy Scheunemann, McCain's foreign policy chief, this week denied reports that he had been fired in the final stage of the campaign for siding with Palin and leaking "poison" on McCain to the pro-Palin columnist William Kristol...

... Palin dismissed the criticisms, attributing them to "a small, bitter type of person". Instead, she has emphasised perhaps the only thing that still unites her and her supporters with McCain loyalists: hostility towards the media.

She had "a little bit of disappointment in my heart about the world of journalism today" ...

Palin offered to help reporters confront their problems. "I want to ... help restore some credibility there," she said.

On the one hand it's nice to see such an exquisitely cruel and nasty group of human beings pound on each other's egos. On the other hand we need a respectable, sentient opposition. The GOP is threatening to turn into a party for crazed loons. In which case Minnesota's shark jumping loon will be quite at home.

Incidentally, I don't believe Palin really considered Africa to be a country. She's no intellectual, but she's not cognitively impaired either.

Note the resurgence of the current GOP meme -- it's all the fault of the biased liberal media. It appears the "liberal media" now includes Fox! They really weren't ready to be called on their swill.

Obama’s Economic Advisory Board – includes Robert Reich!

Paul Krugman and Brad DeLong aren’t on the board (and why not?), but another blog author I follow is … Robert Reich!

Thanks Professor Reich!

This is the kind of list that should reassure a lot of people that America made the right choice when we voted for President Obama. Emphases mine, note the names and connections..

Obama’s Transition Economic Advisory Board - List - NYTimes.com

DAVID E. BONIOR Academic; former Democratic Congressman from Michigan; John Edwards’s campaign manager.

WARREN E. BUFFETT Billionaire investor and chairman of Berkshire Hathaway; expected to take part by telephone.

ROEL C. CAMPOS Washington lawyer; former member of the Securities and Exchange Commission; former broadcasting executive.

WILLIAM M. DALEY Senior executive at JP Morgan Chase; former Commerce Secretary; chairman of Al Gore’s presidential campaign.

WILLIAM H. DONALDSON Former chairman of the S.E.C.; long career in investment banking, higher education and government.

ROGER W. FERGUSON Jr. Chief executive of TIAA-CREF, the private financial services company; former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve.

JENNIFER M. GRANHOLM Governor of Michigan.

ANNE M. MULCAHY Chairwoman and chief executive of Xerox.

RICHARD D. PARSONS Chairman of Time Warner; former banker.

PENNY S. PRITZKER Senior executive, Hyatt; national finance chairwoman for the Obama campaign.

ROBERT B. REICH Author, academic, former Labor Secretary.

ROBERT E. RUBIN Chairman of Citigroup; former Treasury Secretary.

ERIC E. SCHMIDT Chairman and chief executive, Google.

LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS Economist, academic; former Treasury Secretary.

LAURA D’ANDREA TYSON Academic; former chairwoman of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors and the National Economic Council.

ANTONIO R. VILLARAIGOSA Mayor of Los Angeles.

PAUL A. VOLCKER Former chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Pretty damned good.

The true voting divide - Fundamentalists vs. the Secular and non-Christian

Obama seems to be a fairly devout Christian. Even so, the real divide in American voting today not race, wealth or education, it's religion:
Stephen Bates: In the US elections, the religious right remained largely true to their conservative roots | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

... Initial analysis by the respected Pew Forum polling organisation seems to show that about 73% of born-again evangelicals voted for McCain/Palin – down from about 79% four years ago – while non-church goers voted in similar proportions for Obama. Among Catholics – who after all are the largest single denomination in the US and make up 27% of the entire electorate – the margin was much narrower: 52% of white Catholics who are regular Mass-attenders voted for McCain, 47% for Obama, while non-practising Catholics went 61% to 37% for Obama...
The journalist is somewhat confused in the article. When you read the Pew numbers the reality breaks down like this:
  • White fundamentalist* -> McCain
  • Non-fundamentalist Christian (mainstream Protestant, Catholic) -> fairly even
  • Secular, unobservant, Jewish, non-Christian -> Obama
McCain was a pretty secular candidate by GOP standards, Palin is an extreme fundamentalist (Dominionist). So they really tried to nail the base but stretch McCain out to the secular. Didn't work. It's hard to span both camps in one ticket ...

* They call it "evangelical/born-again" and, oddly, limit it to whites.

Thursday, November 06, 2008

Don't look at patents

This Slashdot discussion is quite good ...Slashdot | Microsoft's Internal Advice About Patents.

Most agree that if you're inventing things or creating software, you shouldn't ever research patents looking for pre-existing art.

You're better to wait until you get an infringement letter.

Read the article and comments to understand the legal reasoning.

Obama and the white vote

Both The Economist and FiveThirtyEight report that Obama received only 43% of the (non-hispanic) white vote:
Great expectations | The Economist 
... Mr Obama lost the white vote, it is true, by 43-55%; but he won almost exactly same share of it as the last three (white) Democratic candidates; Bill Clinton, Al Gore and John Kerry....
On October 24th Obama was polling at 44% of the white vote, so the fear-and-smear of the Ayers-filled [1] two weeks before the vote didn't make a lot of difference (though 1% was huge in 2000).

From FiveThirtyEight we get more details on pale skin voting. Here are the Kerry and Obama numbers
Kerry: M (37%), F (44%), net (41%)
Obama: M (41%), F (45%), net (43%)
So The Economist isn't quite right. Obama did about the same as Kerry with white women, but much better than Kerry with white men. More women than men vote, so the big male boost only added 1%.

The last Democrat to win a majority of white voters was Lyndon Johnson -- before he became a champion of civil rights. So Obama did remarkably well by Democratic standards.

So whites prefer the GOP, but it's hard to tell whether this is tribalism or income related. Below $50K Obama support is very high, but you have to go over $200K to again get an Obama majority. Middle class Americans favor the GOP by 1-2%, which is enough to win an election. It's ironic, of course, that Obama's gets a support bump in the group that will be most affected by his tax increases.

john

[1] So now that it's all over, is he going to be able to sue anyone for libel?

Meme watch: It's all the fault of the damned liberal media

I knew there was a reason Orson Scott Card stopped being readable ten years ago. His brain was invaded with the zombie leaches that have now caused him to sign onto the resurrection of "the liberal media has destroyed America meme" ...
Tim Oren's Due Diligence: The Newspaper Crash of 2009... And How You Can Help

One of the reasons that churn is up for the newspapers is the political bias. I'm with Orson Scott Card on this. The industry has abdicated its social function to support a well-informed electorate, and become a propaganda arm of the left. In so doing, they have sullied their brands and lost the trust of their readers. The economic consequences of this default of their value proposition are now becoming apparent. The Internet and an economic crisis together would be bad enough, but the industry has only itself to blame for the egregious behavior on display for the last few years, and at its worst right now.
So, you see, it wasn't the torture, the lying, the smears, the betrayals, the incompetence, the alienation, the corruption, the stupidity, the War on Science and Reason, the greed, the policy, the bankrupt "southern strategy", the Palin Dominionism or any other reality of the modern GOP that led to Obama's victory.

It as all the treacherous liberal press.

If the media weren't treacherous, why would they have stopped the 'he said/she said' reporting that was an essential underpinning of Rovian politics? Why did journalists suddenly start mentioning the contradiction between what 'he said' and what, undeniably and irrefutably, was actually true?

Why would groups like FactCheck.org post 10 McCain/Palin whoppers for every one Obama/Biden fib?

Because they hate freedom. Because they're not real Americans. Because they're pawns of Soros, Buffet and the Trilateral Commission.

We're going to hear a lot of this garbage.

To the keyboard team, the Battle for Truth, for Enlightenment 2.0, didn't end when the Good Guys won the election.

I need a new tag for this. Meme Watch will do.

Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Salvaging world’s food and medication supply chains and resurrecting the FDA - thank you team Obama

Yesterday was an end to the 14 monster years, the 8 years of dread, the years of environmental decimation, to Rumsfeld and torture and Cheney and …

Damn, it’s a long list.

Good thing Obama has a huge amount of talent to call on ... Gore. Biden. Kerry. Buffet. The Clinton. Obama doesn't come alone, he comes with a superb team and a deep bench.

Somewhere on their to do list is the integrity of the world’s medication and food chain. Fake Heparin, poisonous infant food, poisonous animal feed, counterfeit surgical supplies, toxic toys, -- we've seen 'em all.

Meanwhile the GOP Bush cronies continued to destroy the FDA, the agency that was supposed to protect us from all this.

Fraud in the food and med supply chain has been only one of a non-stop list of disasters falling on pithed America. Ninety percent of Americans still have no idea what's going on; this was one of the many issues that didn't merit campaign attention.

That's over now. No, it's not that Americans have fully woken up. It's that we've dumped the incompetents, and we've engaged the O team.

This TIME story is a reminder of why we need the O team, and why the GOP needs to reform itself. Emphases mine ...

China's Melamine Woes Likely to Get orse – TIME

By Austin Ramzy / Beijing Tuesday, Nov. 04, 2008

First, a tainted product emerges, killing some and sickening many more. Its origin is traced to China, where a combination of greed and negligence allow the danger to slip into the food chain...

...As early as January, infants in China raised on Sanlu brand baby formula began developing kidney problems, and parents raised complaints that were ignored by company and local government officials. When the news finally broke in September, tests found four infants had died and more than 60,000 were sickened from formula tainted with melamine.. Expanded inspections found traces of melamine in milk powder from 22 of the country's 109 producers. The substance also showed up in whole milk and dairy products ranging from White Rabbit candies to chocolate used in sex toys in the U.K.

In late October, the scope of the scandal broadened when Hong Kong authorities announced that eggs imported from the mainland also contained melamine, the result of tainted feed given to chickens. Beijing ordered widespread testing of animal feed, and discovered 3,600 tons of contaminated product. The country's agriculture minister, Sun Zhengcai, called the tainted eggs an isolated problem. And the state press trumpeted news that sauces tainted with toxic chemicals were imported from three Japanese factories.

Change some of the details above and you could have the Chinese Product Safety Scandal of 2007. That round was touched off when the death of more than 100 Panamanians was traced back to cough medicine tainted with dietheylene glycol from China. Then hundreds of pets in North America were killed by eating food made from Chinese raw ingredients, also tainted with melamine. As last year's scandal spread, problems were found with Chinese-produced toys, tires, seafood and toothpaste... ...The Chinese embassy in Washington declared that it was "unacceptable for some to launch groundless smear attacks on China" over food and drug safety problems...

There's even more frightening details in a recent NYT Magazine expose on drug manufacturing in China....
The Safety Gap - Can the F.D.A. Ever Hope to Police Chinese Meds? - NYTimes.com
By GARDINER HARRIS

... China now produces about two-thirds of all aspirin and is poised to become the world’s sole global supplier in the not-too-distant future. But are the Chinese factories safe? Who knows? The U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the European Medicines Agency and other competent government regulators rarely, if ever, inspect them...

In China, where thousands of drug manufacturers sell products in the local markets, profit margins are razor thin, and counterfeiting and contamination are common. In 2002, the Pharmaceutical Association, a Chinese trade group, estimated that as much as 8 percent of over-the-counter drugs sold in China are counterfeit.

... China has in recent years exported poisonous toothpaste, deadly dog food, toys made with lead paint and tainted fish. In one infamous example this spring, Chinese manufacturers substituted a cheap fake for the dried pig intestines used to make the drug heparin, which is given to dialysis and surgery patients to prevent blood clotting. As deaths among those taking the drug mounted, the F.D.A. discovered the taint and banned the contaminated drug. In the end, 81 people may have died from allergic reactions, and tens of thousands around the world were exposed to danger. F.D.A. officials admitted that the agency should never have approved the Chinese-made heparin for sale in the United States; the agency, it turned out, had never inspected the Chinese plant making it.

Concerns about Chinese drugs have become so intense that just three weeks ago, the Health and Human Services secretary, Michael O. Leavitt, announced that the F.D.A. would open an office in Beijing by the end of the year and offices in Shanghai and Guangzhou next year. The agency still plans to send inspectors to China from the U.S., but the offices will provide “an infrastructure that will make those people more effective,” Leavitt said at the time of the announcement.

China’s leap to one of the biggest suppliers of pharmaceutical ingredients in the world happened over the last decade, as the Chinese government subsidized the construction of manufacturing plants that have undercut prices everywhere. Generic drug makers in the United States, where price competition is fierce, were the first to seek cheaper drug ingredients in China. Last year, generic drug applications to the F.D.A. listed 1,154 plants providing active pharmaceutical ingredients: 43 percent of them were in China, and another 39 percent were in India. Only 13 percent were in the United States. Branded drug makers, with their fatter profit margins, resisted buying ingredients from China for years, but with their businesses now suffering, even major pharmaceutical companies like AstraZeneca, Bayer, Baxter and Pfizer have announced deals to outsource manufacturing to China.

I have been writing about the drug industry for more than a decade, but I have rarely written about a subject that both branded and generic drug makers wanted to discuss less...

The F.D.A. regulates more than $1 trillion worth of consumer goods, which amounts to about 25 cents of every consumer dollar spent in this country. This includes $466 billion in food sales, $275 billion in drugs, $60 billion in cosmetics and $18 billion in vitamin supplements. The agency is responsible for monitoring a third of all imported goods, from eggplant to eyeliner, microwave ovens to monoclonal antibodies, slaughterhouses to cellphones. But with fewer than 500 import inspectors and computer systems so old that repairmen must be called out of retirement to fix them, the agency is increasingly beset by a sense of futility.

Even the F.D.A.’s staunchest defenders now acknowledge that something is terribly wrong. Among them is Peter Barton Hutt, who served as the agency’s general counsel during the Nixon administration and is widely considered the dean of the F.D.A. bar in Washington. I’ve interviewed Hutt dozens of times over the years, and he has always defended the F.D.A. No more. “This is a fundamentally broken agency,” Hutt told me earlier this year, “and it needs to be repaired.”...

... To ensure the safety of imported drugs, the F.D.A. relies almost entirely on its own inspections of foreign plants. This was not much of a problem 30 years ago, when most medical products consumed in the United States were made here and F.D.A. inspectors could drive around to plants in their district. Most of those plants have since moved abroad, and now decades can pass between inspections. Testifying before Congress in April, Dr. Janet Woodcock, director of the F.D.A.’s drug center, spoke with rare frankness about the ability of the agency to do its job abroad. “The F.D.A. of the last century is not configured to regulate this century’s globalized pharmaceutical industry,” she testified.

Other current and former F.D.A. officials I talked to echoed Woodcock’s warning. Tim Wells, who was a field investigator and then a compliance officer for 24 years at the F.D.A., now does private audits of drug plants and sees the holes in the agency’s safety net. “A company I recently visited abroad hasn’t been inspected for 10 years,” he told me.

Besides being more frequent, domestic inspections are unannounced and more intense. And when inspectors find dangerous conditions at domestic plants, they generally return promptly to ensure that those conditions get fixed. Not so in foreign plants. In a report released Oct. 22, government auditors reported that between 2002 and 2007, F.D.A. inspectors found dangerous conditions in 15 foreign plants. Only one of those plants was reinspected within two years, the auditors found. In every other case, the agency took foreign managers at their word that promised changes were made.

The record is particularly bad in China. Over the past six years, the F.D.A. has managed to inspect annually an average of just 15 of the 714 Chinese drug plants that export to the United States. At its present pace, the F.D.A. would need more than 50 years to visit all of these Chinese plants. By contrast, the F.D.A. inspects domestic drug plants every 2.7 years...

... When inspectors do go to China, their reports sometimes read like a bureaucratic rendering of Mark Twain’s “Innocents Abroad.” During a 2001 trip, for example, two F.D.A. inspectors visited a plant that was exporting acetaminophen to the United States. The plant had never been inspected. “The F.D.A. inspection team was met at the hotel in Wenzhou by representatives from Wenzhou No. 3 Pharmaceutical Factory and . . . transported by public ferry and then company vehicle to the manufacturing facility on Dong Tou Island off the coast of Wenzhou,” their report states. “There is no street address or plot number, and the address of the facility is given only by the county and province.”

Once the team arrived in what seemed like the middle of nowhere, the inspectors learned the drug was being manufactured at another plant — one that once had a similar name but had recently changed it. “In fact,” the report continues, “inspection found that there were initially three separate and independent firms operating under the names Wenzhou No. 1 Pharmaceutical Factory, Wenzhou No. 2 Pharmaceutical Factory and Wenzhou No. 3 Pharmaceutical Factory. The location of Wenzhou No. 1 Pharmaceutical Factory was also determined by the F.D.A. inspection team during the visit to Wenzhou, and it was learned that the firm is operating under a new Chinese name; however, the English translation of that name was not available.” So the two inspectors flew back to the United States — at taxpayers’ expense — never having inspected a thing.

The F.D.A.’s apparent inability to keep names straight is no trivial matter. One reason the agency failed to inspect the Changzhou plant that produced deadly heparin, for instance, was that someone mixed up the facility’s name and concluded that the plant had already been inspected. Chinese plant names, a vestige of its once strictly controlled economy, are often very similar, and translations can vary. For instance, there are 57 separate drug master files — the basic F.D.A. record of a plant’s name, location and approved product — with “Shanghai” in the name. Some are obvious repeats, like the ones for “Shanghai No. 6 Pharmaceutical Factory” and “Shanghai Number 6 Pharmaceutical Factory.” But others could be separate plants. Or maybe not. It’s just too hard to tell.

Compounding the problem is the F.D.A.’s antiquated technology. Its computer systems are so awful that officials have no way of knowing which names, or which plants, are real. To determine which factories need to be inspected, agency investigators must consult two incompatible databases, one of which lists 3,000 foreign drug plants exporting to the United States and the other 6,800. Which number is right? Nobody really knows. Officials have told House investigators that their best guess for the number of foreign drug plants exporting to the United States is 2,967, while the Government Accountability Office recently guessed 3,249. Neither can the agency tell in many cases when the plants were last inspected (or, more important, which have never been inspected), where they are located or what products they make.

The combined ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach receive about 45 percent of all ship-borne trade that comes to the United States, or some 5.2 million containers a year. When I visited one day in May, giant cranes were unloading and loading more than 30 ships, each bearing about 2,500 containers. Some 40 to 50 of those containers — a tiny fraction of the total — were trucked to a gigantic warehouse about a half-mile from the ports. There the F.D.A. and Customs and Border Protection cracked open shipping containers that they considered suspicious and then emptied the containers into a large examination area in front of the bays, arranging the boxes and crates as if they were pathologists lining up organs from an autopsy.

Just about every crate I saw contained some kind of food product. One crate came from Indonesia, and its manifest said it contained products with chicken inside. Indonesia plus chicken suggests avian flu to F.D.A. officials. So they decided to take a look. The crate turned out to contain chicken seasoning, but no actual chicken. Still, the cans were sent off for testing. Deeper into the guts of the container were glass jars of sambal terasi, a hot sauce. They would probably be sent back because the F.D.A. requires makers of low-acid foods in jars or cans to register with the agency.

The labels on high-end olives from Italy were lacking the required nutritional information, so back to Italy they went. Jars of jam made of figs and tangerines indicated they were produced close to Ukraine, so an F.D.A. inspector said that he wanted to sample the product for radioactive fallout from the 1986 Chernobyl disaster...

... This year, 18.2 million shipments of food, devices, cosmetics and drugs are expected to enter more than 300 U.S. ports; the F.D.A. had 454 investigators in 2007 — one and a half per port — to scrutinize them. ...

... the U.S. Justice Department announced that it had opened a criminal investigation of Ranbaxy, the largest Indian drug maker, with $390 million in annual sales in the United States. In a motion filed in federal court in Maryland, the Justice Department accused Ranbaxy of “a pattern of systemic fraudulent conduct,” including filing fabricated drug data to the F.D.A. and using drug ingredients from unapproved and uninspected plants. AIDS drugs purchased by the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief were among the medicines implicated, the Justice Department charged. ..

... Officer James Ng of Customs and Border Protection started the tour by putting a package from China through an X-ray machine. The pictures showed row upon row of vials. “When it looks like this, it’s usually anabolic steroids inside,” Ng said. He opened the box, put on a pair of half-glasses and took out one of the vials, which was filled with a white crystalline powder. “It says it’s testosterone,” Ng said and then handed the vial to von Eschenbach.

“It’s an incredible example,” von Eschenbach said, his eyes bright. “It’s a steroid from China, but the label is written in Spanish.”

Customs seizes any steroids and narcotics they find, but they give other drugs to F.D.A. inspectors, who laboriously fill out handwritten forms and send letters to intended recipients. If the recipient swears that the drugs are for his or her own personal use, the F.D.A. often releases the detained package. It takes an hour or two to process each package, “an obstacle that makes their job functionally impossible,” according to a 2003 Congressional investigation. Thousands of packages can pile up waiting for F.D.A. review, and the agency often releases packages without any investigation for lack of staff.

Even when there are inspectors on the job, they cannot be sure every ingredient in a medicine is safe. The F.D.A. confines nearly all of its regulations and much of its inspection oversight to the active part of most pills, which generally constitutes between 1 percent and 10 percent of a pill’s volume. Much of a pill is fillers, binders, coatings, colorants and lubricants that are almost entirely unregulated.

The syrup in which cough and fever medicines are delivered has figured in at least eight mass poisonings around the world in the past two decades, with three of the four most recent cases originating in China. Hundreds died in Panama in 2006, at least 88 children in Haiti died in 1995 and 1996 and some 30 infants died in India in 1998 — all from toxic syrup. In 1937, 107 people in the United States died because of similar toxic syrup. In fact, it was this incident that led to the creation of the modern F.D.A. But plants making fillers and other nondrug ingredients of pills and syrups are rarely, if ever, inspected by the F.D.A. or any other regulatory agency...

... Unlike reforming Social Security or health insurance generally, fixing the F.D.A. won’t mean allocating enormous sums or necessitate reconceiving the system. It just requires some money and will. There are already legislative changes in the works. Bills now circulating on Capitol Hill would require food, medical- device and drug makers to pay annual registration fees to the F.D.A. Those fees would be used to allow as many inspections of foreign firms as domestic ones.

There also seems to be agreement that our regulatory agencies can’t rely on China to police its own factories.

More inspectors will certainly help, but even regular inspections of Chinese plants cannot ensure safety. Inspectors can be hoodwinked; tests can be fooled. “No matter how many F.D.A. inspections they do,” says Senator Sherrod Brown, Democrat of Ohio, “our safety is still at risk if the pressure continues to cut costs.” Brown has introduced a bill to require labels disclosing the source country of key drug ingredients. Some lawmakers have gone as far as to suggest a ban on all drugs made with Chinese ingredients, but China has become such a crucial supplier that a ban would lead to the collapse of the U.S. health care system. And our dependence is only growing: when PricewaterhouseCoopers cited the best place for pharmaceutical outsourcing in the world in an October report to drug companies, its pick was China...
If you're not scared, you're not paying attention.

Bush and the GOP descendants of the Gingrich invasion destroyed the FDA.

Destroyed it, because, of course, the libertarian market deity is supposed to solve these problems.

It's been a damned long 14 years.

Now we have Team O. Their mission is to ...
1. Find someone with deep pockets and resources along the supply chain who can be assigned legal responsibility. Let them be reimbursed appropriately.
2. We need a to be able to enter the NDC code for any drug in an FDA web site and get a full report on where the ingredients come from. Few consumers will ever do this, but the lawyers will love it and it will introduce supply chain transparency.
3. We need China to be strong, happy, and prosperous. We also need safe medications. If that means our inspectors live in Chinese plants (and get rich for their hardships), then we put tariffs on the production of those plants to pay for the inspectors.
There are good people at the FDA. A sane leader will find much support.

Why some who feared Obama’s election are calm today

When I watched McCain’s concession speech, I wondered briefly who he finally voted for. I know he spent much of his honor and reputation in his attempt to win, but in the end he seemed unusually accepting of defeat.

It’s almost as though he was, at the very end, relieved that his own fear-and-slime strategy mostly failed, and proud that America had started a new chapter in our history.

If so, he’s not alone. Other true-red Republicans are also finding that their fears are fading …

Congratulations Democrats! - Campaign Stops Blog - NYTimes.com

Douglas MacKinnon was a press secretary to former Senator Bob Dole. (Full biography.)

Congratulations to President-elect Barack Obama. As a conservative who has been fearful of an Obama victory for the last several months, I’m more than a little surprised at how calm I am with the dreaded result and how stress-free it is to offer genuine felicitations for the historic win.

Part of my tranquil demeanor comes because of the historic significance of the outcome. Our nation just elected an African-American as our next president of the United States. No matter party or ideology, that color-blind advancement in our electoral process has to make all of us proud.

Another reason for my serenity comes by way of my background. I grew up in abject poverty and was homeless a number of times as a child. By the time I was 17 years old, I had moved 34 times with each move coming because of a forced and often ugly eviction…

… Because of that somewhat unique experience, for the last 20 years or so, I’ve been pleading with my party in print and on the air to reach out to the black and minority communities. If ever there was an unassailable wake-up call, Barack Obama just delivered it. If the G.O.P. hopes to survive, it has to go after and fight for the minority vote.

While the president-elect and others in his party may disagree with me, my young experiences also taught me there are few people more “conservative,” religious, heroic, or law-abiding than a single black mother. An inspirational mindset that would not only do my party a world of good, but has always seemed to me to be a natural fit.

While it may anger some of my fellow conservatives, I want President-elect Barack Obama to succeed. More than that, for the good of our nation and for those I care about, I need him to succeed. No matter the politician or party, rhetoric is easy but results are hard and often fleeting. Rhetoric will not trump terrorism. The nation now needs him to deliver.

As one who has worked on presidential campaigns and then in the White House, I know governing is a far cry from the partisanship of a campaign. Will Mr. Obama jerk the nation to the left to appease the fringe of his party as many on my side predict? I don’t think so. Everyday reality and what seems like a genuine desire to reach across the aisle, may temper any such move. And if he morphs into everything the right fears, then so what. The year 2012 will give the G.O.P. another chance to convince the nation that it is the viable alternative.

For the moment, let’s all step back, take a deep breath and realize that we just elected an African-American man president of the United States. Wow. That is a testament to the greatness of our nation.

Proposition 18 may have won in California because the non-euros new voters who came for McCain are also socially conservative. They could vote be voters for a more welcoming GOP. It’s not a party I’d care for, but this is America. There has to be a place for the “primevals” and the fundamentalists. One way for the GOP to “reform” would be to dump the racism but embrace the homophobia and thus become a contender for the minority vote (but not the gay and gay family vote!).

I suppose that’s progress of a sort.

Tuesday, November 04, 2008

I'll take it anyway

For better or for worse ...
Nation Finally Shitty Enough To Make Social Progress | The Onion
... Today Americans have grudgingly taken a giant leap forward,' Williams continued. 'And all it took was severe economic downturn, a bloody and unjust war in Iraq, terrorist attacks on lower Manhattan, nearly 2,000 deaths in New Orleans, and more than three centuries of frequently violent racial turmoil.'
Said Williams, 'The American people should be commended for their long-overdue courage.'"...
I'll take it.

Google News, NYT Nov 4, 2008, Doonesebury


and

and I thought Gary Trudeau did very well ...

Watching Obama

Tonight.

Impossible.

It's more likely I'm hallucinating. In a coma somewhere. Trapped in a virtual reality ...

Cannot be real.

Update: Post-Obama speech. Damn, I'm happy. This is one astounding President. I never knew he was so good. I didn't have to know, since the alternative was so bad.

Fabulous picture

november-4-2008.jpg