My iPhone purchase strategy looks like a really bad bet ...

About a year ago my wife needed a smartphone to replace the excellent Samsung Palm i500. I figured we'd switch to AT&T so I'd be ready for iPhone 2.0, and get her a BlackBerry Pearl. In the meantime I'd get rid of my hated Motorola RAZR and live with a generic cheap Nokia.

I should have just bought iPhone 1.0, because I'm going to get hit with the unsubsidized price AND the increased monthly data rate:

AT&T's official iPhone 3G pricing/plans: $199 to $499 ... Although AT&T continues to be vague on exactly what it means to be 'eligible' (a spokesperson said that, among other factors, it depends on where a customer is in his or her contract), the company does tell us that if you're not eligible, you can still buy the iPhone 3G for $399 and $499 for the 8GB and 16GB models respectively. Unfortunately, these bumped-up prices still require a two-year service agreement, so this is pretty much the worst end of the stick if you're a prospective iPhone customer...

I'll try to sort this out with the AT&T outlet near my office, but we already know AT&T uses price complexity as a weapon.

I'm in line for a $500+ total charge from AT&T compared to a customer switching today from Spring.

More when I get the full story. I knew I was dealing with Satan when I signed.

Update: This is such a raw deal I might be better off ordering iPhone 1.0 prior to July 11, then maybe transferring it in future.

Update 7/1/08: From Tidbits:

The current 2G iPhone plans will continue to be available for people who want to start up new service plans with someone's old phone. That means that instead of the $30 per month for unlimited 3G data required for the iPhone 3G, plus a minimum of $5 per month for 200 incoming and outgoing text messages, a 2G iPhone buyer or gift recipient can pay $20 per month for unlimited EDGE and 200 text messages. The original GoPhone prepaid option is also available, which costs $20 per month for unlimited EDGE data, but does not include text messages...

...Also today, AT&T clarified who qualifies for a subsidized iPhone, and how much a contract-fee iPhone will cost. If you are in the middle of a contract period with any handset but an iPhone, you don't qualify; that's also true if your account isn't in good standing. Users who meet that bill pay $400 (8 GB) or $500 (16 GB). No-contract iPhone 3Gs won't be available at launch, but when that option comes around, it will cost $600 (8 GB) and $700 (16 GB). (At least one site has pointed out that buying an iPhone 3G, keeping the plan for over 30 days, and then canceling service and paying the early-termination fee is much cheaper. AT&T may offer a wrinkle there to prevent this.)...

So, what about existing AT&T customers who buy a used iPhone 1.0? Do we get the old plan too? Probably not, but I wonder about buying under the old contract with a used iPhone, then buying a new iPhone with their special iPhone upgrade contract deal then selling the used iPhone again. Nahhh..