The end of the flash?

A half-decent flash for a dSLR costs about $240 now (it used to cost about $400). That's a significant fraction of the cost of a low end dSLR.

On the other hand, the newest pro Nikon CMOS based camera has a maximal ISO of about 24,000. We can reasonably expect entry level dSLRs to have similar light sensitivity within 3 years -- if Nikon or Canon resist then SONY will force the issue.

I assume the 24K ISO on that pro Nikon is extremely noisy, but I'm guessing the 2K ISO isn't bad. With an ISO of 2K only specialists will need to use a flash.

I wonder when the prices will really start to fall? Probably when the used, but still quite good, flashes start to flood the market.

UPS crushes another Amazon.com package

Lately, UPS has been at mangling every other package they deliver, but this time they went too far:

Geez, it was my son's end-of-summer $20 Lego kit for Pete's sake. I'm seriously annoyed with UPS, but I seriously doubt it would help to complain to them. They know they have a problem, and either they can't fix it or they don't care. Either way, my complaining to UPS is a waste of time.

On the other hand, Amazon has clout. They can threaten to start using the USPS (which does a better job with my packages) - for example. UPS is making Amazon look bad, and if this goes on I'll start shopping locally. So I wrote to Amazon instead:

Once again UPS has crushed an Amazon.com package. This one contained a gift for my son, the side of the box is also crushed.

After he opens it tonight we'll see how bad the internal damage is and decide if we want to return in it. In the meantime, I'm very unhappy with UPS, and that means I'm unhappy with Amazon.

I'm pretty sure I got this one "free shipping", but "crushed" is a negative benefit. I'd be glad to send you copies of the pictures I'll be taking of the box and the enclosed item. At this point I'd like you to:

1. Send me a gift certificate for $10 as compensation.

2. Tell me you know that this is a real problem and let me know what Amazon is going to do about UPS. They're an increasingly dysfunctional business partner of yours and they're making you look bad.

Amazon wrote back, in a somewhat confused email that looked like a cut and paste job -- but here's the cleaned up version ...

I am sorry to hear that you have received the damaged item ...

I sincerely apologize for any disappointment you have experienced
with this order.

We are aware that our choice of delivery services reflects on our business as a whole, and we appreciate your feedback.

I have passed your message along to our shipping department, as I know they will want to read about your experience.

Rest assured your feedback has certainly not fallen on deaf ears, and has been shown to all appropriate personnel who would benefit from it. We do take suggestions from our customers very seriously and are grateful for your insights.

Based on the condition in which the item ... arrived, we are offering to refund 30%
of the purchase price of this item...

Lego kits are typically very loosely packed, and in this case the parts were fine. My son tends to ignore the state of the box, so he was perfectly happy with the gift. I did take the 30% credit though, I want Amazon to feel a bit of pain. Don't worry, they make a ton of money from our household.

Amazon needs to turn up the heat on UPS. The next time UPS delivers a crunched Amazon package, let Amazon know what you think.

An ocean of poisonous fish

You can sustain a population of a few hundred people by hunting, but it doesn't scale to a million people. That's why we had to have agriculture before we could infest the planet. Except, when it comes to fishing, we're still hunter gatherers. Not surprisingly, the fish are going away.

It's unlikely this will continue for more than fifty years of course. Either 8.9 billion people will die or we'll get our house in order. I was wondering, however, how evolution would respond in the impossible event that we stayed around, much as we are now, for a few thousand years. There'd be a large vacant ecological niche in the ocean -- what could possibly fill it?

Poisonous fish, of course. Something we couldn't eat. The ultimate defense against the ultimate predator. In time the ocean would be full of vast varieties of poisonous fish, all inedible.

It won't happen of course, but still, something to contemplate ...

Inline skating? Wear a helmet.

These days, most people wear helmets when bicycling. That's not true of inline skating, but in the thirteen years I've done both with comparable frequency I've had greater need of a helmet on skates than on my bike. (I used to do vastly more bicycling, the current balance is driven by my kids.)

Among experienced inline skaters in Minnesota, I think that about 80% wear a helmet. The frequency of helmet use among novices is much lower -- but they don't move too fast. The real problem is semi-skilled skaters, only about 20% of them wear helmets. They can move quickly.

I suspect Dr. Weinstock was in the 20% of strong skaters who don't wear helmets ...

Popular doctor dies from skating injury: A fall on rollerblades- NJ.com
Tuesday, August 28, 2007
BY ALEX ZDAN and MICHAEL RATCLIFFE

A well-respected opthalmologist died Friday after sustaining injuries in a rollerblading accident in Hopewell Township. Dr. Floyd Weinstock, 53, apparently fell while in- line skating Thursday afternoon, suffering a severe head injury, police said...

Life is a terminal condition. Inline skating, bicycling with cars, working on a farm, downhill skiing, walking in some cities at night -- all dangerous activities. Yes, but, even so, there's much to be said for evening the odds.

I don't like wearing my helmet when I skate. I understand why Dr. Weinstock didn't want to wear one, but a helmet does even the odds -- and it makes it less likely your wife will pursue you to the gates of Hell if you do die. Helmets don't make you invulnerable, but they can convert a fatal head injury into a severe concussion, and a severe concussion into a mild concussion.

The worst injury I've had skating was a mild concussion (no loss of consciousness) due to a trivial trip and fall at at walking speed; if you catch a skate so it becomes a pivot point you can get quite a bit of angular velocity six feet from the axis (ie. at the head). I was wearing a helmet of course, and it did what it could do. I like to replace them often now, to keep the foam fresh.

Even the odds. Wear a helmet. Remember Dr. Weinstock. Had I been caught out on a similar mistake, I like to think I could at least become a cautionary tale. I suspect he'd have felt the sam way.

Lessons in limitations: One of government, one of the web

[This wasn't one of my better posts. See the update for the denouement. I'd delete the post, but that isn't playing fair.]

The original:

I picked up a map at the Minnesota State Fair yesterday. It's the DNR's state trail system map. It looks great at first, until one realizes that the Lake Wobegon trail is missing, despite being connected to the Central Lakes Trail (which is included). True, the connection is new, but the real issue is that the Lake Wobegon trail is not a DNR trail, and this is a DNR map.

So the DNR has provided us piece of a map, but not a functional map. It will be valuable to people who write books about bicycle trails in Minnesota, but, really, the DNR shouldn't have bothered with a public distribution. One day Google (or someone) will put together a mapping framework that works, the DNR could own one layer, other organizations could own their layers, and we'd have something useful. For now, we have authors as system integrators who fit the puzzle pieces together.

That's a limitation of government, and, more broadly, of any emergent result (a trail network) arising from multiple contributors. Creating self-integrating emergent systems (wikipedia) is something we're only starting to learn about.

The other limitation, one that's wider than government, is that the web is just too hard for people to get right. In particular, links are too hard. (On a related topic, Apple has abandoned one of their core innovations - file indirection.) The paper map references a URL: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/state-trails. Yep, you guessed it: "404: Page not found." The DNR reorganized their site, broke the link, and didn't provide a redirect. The father of the web would not be surprised - he'd wanted indirection to be a part of the web infrastructure from the start.

Links are too hard. Maps that are puzzle pieces rather than solutions. Two limitations -- with some common roots.

Update: Ok, so this wasn't one of my better posts.

1. I think the map simply had a typo. The url should have been: http://www.dnr.state.mn.us/state_trails. I've notified the MN DNR of the typo.
2. It's true that the DNR only includes their trails on the map, but their web site has not only a great set of trail PDFs but also has a set of links to other long distance trails in MN. So, really, they're awfully close. They just needed to include those other trails on their overall map and they'd have had a real winner.
3. In addition to authors who put books together on MN trails, the DNR also distributes a magazine called Minnesota Trails. That organization is not limited to one agency, and their magazine includes all the state trails and their web site includes a cross-entity view of trails in MN.

So government isn't doing too badly here, and the link example I used was probably a typo rather than a careless break. Ookkkayy, moving right along ...

The feeding of dog and primate: NYT Magazine's peek into the maze

NYT Magazine 9/2/07: They Eat What We Are reads like an excerpt from a much longer book. It's a small window into a large and complex enterprise - the business of industrial dog food. Mr Kaufman is studiously neutral, and he makes an interesting observation on how diet is diverging. Highly educated middle class diets are becoming "organic" and "natural" -- for both humans and their canine comrades. The other 80% of America is moving to an increasingly processed and industrial diet for both humans and canines, with technologies migrating from one species to another.

Kaufman only touches briefly on the melamine story, though it's obviously in the background.

There's too much here to fit into a NYT Magazine article, but the unacknowledged book should be quite interesting ...

The NYT on Abraham Lincoln. In 1860.

Google has introduced searches of historical archives -- most appear to be from the NYT. Interestingly, they apppear to be OCRd -- not just scans. The average article, like this one, costs $5:

THE COMING ADMINISTRATION.; Views, Opinions, Senti... - Article Preview - The New York Times

THE COMING ADMINISTRATION.; Views, Opinions, Sentiments and Purposes of Abraham Lincoln.HIS POSITION ON SLAVERY.Is he Sectional and Ultra, or Conservative and National? WHAT THE REPUBLICANS MUST DO. HOW MR. LINCOLN REGARDS SOUTHERN MEN. THE REAL ISSUE ON THE SUBJECT OF SLAVERY. HOW REPUBLICANS REGARD THE DRED SCOTT DECISION. THE FUGITINE SLAVE LAW. ADMISSION OF SLAVE STATES. COLUMBIA. DOMESTIC SLAVE-TRADE. WHEN THE SLAVERY QUESTION BECAME OF PARAMOUNT IMPORTANCE. MR. LINCOLN ON THE EQUALITY OF NEGROES AND WHITES. FURTHER STATEMENTS CONCERNING NEGRO EQUALIY. MR. LINCOLN'S VIEWS ON THE SUBJECT OF NEGRO EQUALITY. MR. LINCOLN'S VIEWS ON SLAVERY AND SOUTHERN RIGHTS. PERSONAL.

Since it's OCRd from low quality sources there are a lot of typos and layout errors - as in this excerpt. The quality, of course, will continue to improve. I wonder if Google will introduce wiki-like collaborative editing -- probably not, given the challenge of preventing vandalism.

Headlines are a bit shorter than they used to be. This one is essentially a headline and an outline of the article to come -- probably based on the structure of a book (title and chapter headings).

BBC FAQ on the subprime crash - very readable

The BBC has put together a very readable FAQ about the "meltdown" in the sub-prime mortgage industry and the related bank losses (and wins, but nobody's talking about who's winning - yet). It's the best summary I've seen anywhere. For example ...

BBC NEWS | Business | Q&A: World stock market falls

.... Even if the central banks stem the financial panic, there seems to have been a general shift in market perceptions about risk. Generally, the riskier the investment, the higher the interest rate - but now the additional premium for risky investments (the 'spread') is set to widen sharply. When people with money to lend become worried about risks, they tend to put their money in safe investments. So there has been a rush to invest in government bonds, like US Treasury bonds, and safe currencies, like the dollar. In contrast, people are now demanding much higher interest rates to lend to smaller companies or to the governments of developing countries. Investors have also grown wary of lending to private equity funds who want to buy and sell companies. This may mean that this is much less takeover activity than in the past few years, which could also affect the stock market...

Apophis: mark your calendar for April 2029

If I live, I'll be almost 70 when Apophis flies by. I hope that our orbital calculations are as good as we think they are, I'm looking forward to the show. I recall reading about this in 2004, but I didn't remember that the passage will be so close ...

BBC NEWS | Science/Nature | UK plan to track asteroid threat

.... The 300m-wide (980ft) rock, known as Apophis, will fly past Earth in April 2029 at a distance that is closer than many communications satellites.

Astrium, based in Stevenage, Herts, wants a probe to track the asteroid so its orbit can be better understood.

The concept will compete for a $50,000 (£25,000) Planetary Society prize, but a full mission would cost millions.

The British design calls for a small, remote-sensing spacecraft, dubbed Apex (Apophis Explorer), which could rendezvous with Apophis in January 2014.

It would then spend the next three years tracking the rock, sending data back to Earth about the object's size, shape, spin, composition and temperature.

From this information, orbit modelling would enable a more accurate prediction of the risk of any future collision.

Astrium says that if its concept won the prize, it would donate the money to charity...

... A full mission would be expected to cost about $500m (£250m) dollars to develop, launch and operate.

Apophis caused some consternation in 2004 when initial observations suggested there was an outside chance it might hit Earth in 2029.

Further study by ground-based telescopes indicated there was virtually no possibility of this happening, and the expectation is that the object will whiz past the Earth at a close but comfortable distance of just under 36,000km (22,400 miles).

However, there is always some uncertainty associated with an asteroid's orbit.

One reason is the Yarkovsky effect. This describes what happens when an asteroid radiates energy absorbed from the Sun back into space.

Releasing heat in one direction nudges the object in the opposite direction. The resulting acceleration is tiny, but over the centuries acts like a weak rocket and could make the difference between a hit or a miss in some circumstances.

The close encounter with Earth in 2029 will also perturb Apophis' orbit gravitationally.

A mission like Apex to track and study the rock would help reduce uncertainties and give solid predictions about the rock's course long into the future...

... were such a rock to hit the planet, it could cause devastation on a country-wide scale, leading possibly to the deaths of many millions of people.

An Apophis-like object striking at about 20km/s (45,000mph) would gouge a crater 5km (three miles) wide. Even standing 30km (18 miles) away from the impact site, a thermal blast would ignite your clothes and the ground would shudder with an earthquake measuring more than six on the Richter Scale.

Given sufficient warning, though, a potential impactor could be deflected out of Earth's path, scientists believe.

Some have suggested such a rock might be nudged on to a safe trajectory by hitting it with a small mass. Others have proposed flying a spacecraft next to the object, to use gravity to tug the asteroid clear of the planet....

See also the New York Times, March 2007 for a related discussion focusing on general impact management.

Nixon in China: Gay rights and the GOP

Only Nixon, it was said, could go to China. If a Democrat tried, the right wing would have cut him down.

So maybe it's time for the GOP to formally declare an end to the culture war. A Salon article makes a convincing case - the GOP at least as Gay as the general population -- if not more so. Really, it's as laughable to hear GOP candidates talk about "family values" (meaning anti-family values) as it is to hear Bush talk about ... well ... anything.

Obesity, exercise and MN's running of the bull

The CDC released state-specific obesity and exercise recently, and every state played it differently. The most interesting statistic for me was that that the thinnest state today (Colorado) is fatter than the fattest state of 15 years ago. That's largely demographics -- the median age has probably risen 10 years in the past 15 years -- but it's still a bit amazing.

Our local papers claimed Minnesotans are #1 in exercise and near the median for obesity. We're generally a good mirror of America, so median obesity is to be expected. The weird part is our relatively enthusiasm for activity -- it's not like we have a long bicycling season! On the other hand we have a heck of a lot of bicycle/skate/run trails, both in the metro area and throughout the state (more on that in a future post).

Coincidentally Minnesotans again demonstrated the fruits of fitness:

... An angry bull escaped Friday morning from his owner at the Minnesota State Fair, barreling past fairgoers for more than a block before headbutting a fire hydrant and dying at the scene.

No one else was injured...

... Pooch said the bull ran for nearly a block while stunned fairgoers jumped out of the way. "There were a lot of people on the grounds at that time because when I got to the scene there were about 250 people standing around the bull," Pooch said.

Were people afraid?

"I would be," Pooch said. "You have a 1,600- to 1,700-pound animal running at you, you don't want to get in its way."

The bull apparently set his sight on a fairgoer, but the man jumped out of the way, Pooch said. Then the bull turned and saw the fire hydrant. "I guess he decided to take it out on the fire hydrant," Pooch said.

A vet on the scene immediately checked for a heart beat and found none, Pooch said.

"I don't think he felt any pain," Pooch said...

It's a mildly funny story (though not for Mr. Pooch or his bull) only because a lot of people moved very quickly. We saw the same thing when our bridge fell; a lot of people swam out of the Mississippi.

It would be useful to know why we're exceptional exercisers. We're average enough that there ought to be some valuable lessons there -- for the day (if ever) that we start taking obesity seriously.

My MN congressman calls for a federal gas tax increase

This is why Exxon has been running a fake fear campaign in Minnesota papers. My congressman, Betty McCollum, has declared in favor of a gas tax. I probably need not mention that McCollum has one of the safest safe seats in America ... (emphases mine)

TwinCities.com - U.S. Rep. McCollum calls for gas tax hikes to pay for rebuilding nation's infrastructure

Citing America's crumbling roads and bridges, U.S. Rep. Betty McCollum [jg: home area is Saint Paul, MN] today said she supports increasing both state and federal gas taxes to pay for a nationwide infrastructure rebuilding effort.

Before revisiting the site of the collapsed Interstate 35W bridge in Minneapolis, the St. Paul Democrat said, "over the past 20 years, we have not been reinvesting in infrastructure... the way we need to support the common good of our country. The bill's coming due."

Asked how she would pay that bill, McCollum replied, "I believe we need to look at the gas tax."

She didn't say how large a gas tax increase she would support, deferring to the House Transportation Committee and its chairman, Rep. Jim Oberstar, D-Minn., to determine the funding needs. Oberstar has proposed a temporary nickel-a-gallon gas tax increase to finance a bridge-rebuilding program...

If a carbon tax PAC existed, we'd be donating to a future McCollum senate run. (She doesn't need money for a House campaign, she basically runs unopposed). Minnesota's representatives get some cover on this gas tax stuff because we're a water-sucking corn fuel state; presumably the ethanol portion of gasoline would not be taxed, thereby creating price support for biofuels.

Infrastructure repair, of course, is only a cover story. The legitimate justification for a gasoline tax is that it's an essential first step towards greater carbon taxes.

Hmm, do you think I should start that carbon tax PAC?

The Ganges and the lost plutonium cores

Indian agents and the CIA managed to lose a set of plutonium rods in the snows of the Himalayas:

Damn Interesting » Spies on the Roof of the World

...A quick survey of the scene suggested that the stone ledge had been sheared from the mountainside by an avalanche, presumably embedding the generator and its seven cigar-shaped plutonium rods deep into the ice fields below...

.... No one could be certain what would become of the core in the glacier's clutches, but there was cause for great concern. There were two equally alarming prospects: the nuclear fuel might fall into the wrong hands, leading to any number of diabolical designs; or the slab of migrating ice might slowly grind the plutonium into a paste and deposit it into the Sanctuary melt waters, shuttling the four pounds of radioactive material into the vital Ganges River...

...To the best of Dr. Schaller's knowledge, the Central Intelligence Agency never managed to reacquire their missing nuclear appliance. But a water sample from the Sanctuary in 2005 showed troubling hints of plutonium-239, an isotope which does not occur naturally. Years, decades, or centuries from now, the corpse of the rogue generator may yet rise from its icy grave and exact a radioactive revenge upon humanity. However, the CIA can neither confirm nor deny the existence or non-existence of a disaster approximating the aforementioned depiction....

I wonder if anyone has finding the plutonium in their current job description.

Asperger's and the professions

Lisa Nowak, a fallen astronaut, probably has Asperger's syndrome. There are interesting implications for how psychiatry needs to evolve to manage high functioning adults with autism-spectrum disorders who begin to decompensate ...

Be the Best You can Be: An astronaut with Asperger's

...My personal sense is that individuals with Aperger's, and with high-IQ autism (the definition of both is famously inexact, they likely overlap) can do extremely well in some settings. They do, like all of us*, retain weaknesses they must continue to compensate for. I don't know how much of a role Lisa's Aperger's played in her tragedy, but I suspect the combination of obsessive-compulsive disorder, Asperger's and depression was just the 'right' wrong mix. As psychiatry continues its sluggish and difficult transformation into a scientific trade, there will be more of an emphasis on how persons with austism, Asperger's, attention-deficit disorder and obsessive-compulsive disorder can leverage their strengths and offset their disabilities, and how decompensation can be recognized and individually managed...

Exxon's full page ads against conservation in Minnesota papes

Yesterday's twin cities' newspapers had two full page ads urging Americans to stop our government's plot to suck the gasoline out of our cars. One of the ads was "signed" by "Americans working in the energy sector", I believe the other wasn't. Exxon's history makes them the most likely source of the ads, so I'll skip the nonsense and re-sign them "Exxon".

One of the ads claims that "price controls" and "other thingamajigs" (I'm paraphrasing) will induce gasoline shortages. That's cute -- a classic conflation of a partial truth and an outright lie designed to advance a lie. Price controls, of course, would induce gasoline shortages -- but nobody is talking about price controls. The proposal that terrorizes Exxon is a gasoline tax, possibly including a preferential tax on premium gasoline. The reason the ads are running in Minnesota is that our (a smarter version of Bush, alas) republican governor has made noises about a gas tax to pay our bridge repair.

I presume Exxon's terror comes from an expected near-term reduction in their profit margins if American's were to reduce the growth of their gasoline consumption. It may even be that Exxon's competitors are better positioned to take advantage of such a transition, so that Exxon's loss may be greater than the industry average.

This is the most hopeful sign in some time. First comes denial, then comes the fight, then will come the carbon tax, starting with significant gasoline taxes. The fight will be very nasty, I'm pretty sure I know who will be making Karl Rove rich. We can expect a full Rove smear all the time.

Lefties, greens, realist-rationalists need to stop with the feel-good stuff and start funding a carbon tax PAC. Taxation first of gasoline, and then of other carbon sources, is the only way to reduce CO2 emissions, reduce the power of petroleum producing states, and drive a migration to extreme conservation and non-petroleum energy sources.

Thanks Exxon. You'd have done better to stay in the shadows, by showing your hand you're advancing the rationalist agenda.