White water and the end of prediction

I've indulged my pundocratic penchant for prediction over the years.

I'm more or less reformed now however.

It's not that the future is hard to predict., As Cringely recently pointed out, we know how things go. The hard part is figuring out how we get there, and when we arrive. I think that was once worth a try.

That was then. Now our times are interesting. There's too much going down, too many interacting trendlines, too much non-laminar flow. Noise and chaos.

White water times. We're in 'em, and there's no visible exit -- as long as our civilization last.

How do we adapt to white water times? We have to be loose, alert, ready to paddle fast. Keep the gear lashed down, travel light, stay tied to a survival kit and keep your mates at hand.

Growing jobs - my old stimulus proposal

Another day, another editorial on the jobs story.

Maybe it's time to think about my old National Small Business Generation Service proposal? Especially now that health reform is looking real.

It's even old-style market-friendly GOP compatible.

Google good, AT&T and old FCC evil

It's fashionable today to disparage Google, to compare them to the Evil Empires of IBM and Microsoft, to mock the founders for faux idealism.

That's brainless fashion. My personal experience is that Google has been mostly on my side. That's why I serve the rambling House of Google rather than the shaky silver towers of Apple or the wretched slums of Microsoft.

My beef with Google is not with their alleged evil, it's been with their attention deficit disorder, the fundamental flaws of the Cloud, erratic customer abuse and the past two weeks of lousy service.

Imperfect as Google is, it's also right about the Data Freedom Front and right about saving lost books.

They're also in the right when it comes to fighting the phone fraud of "free" conferencing sites. Not that I blame AT&T for calling Google out, but the old (corrupt Bush era?) FCC was wrong about the interconnect scams (emphases and link to the Whitt post are mine) ...

FCC Is Probing Google Voice Service - WSJ.com

.... Richard Whitt, Google's Washington telecom and media counsel, said in a blog post Friday that Google restricts calls to certain local phone numbers because "they charge exorbitant termination rates" and "partner with adult sex chat lines and 'free' conference calling centers to drive high volumes of traffic."

AT&T Inc. has said Google is violating rules designed to ensure that phone companies connect all calls. Earlier this week, a group of lawmakers asked the FCC for an investigation into the matter, saying the practice could hurt rural customers...

...The FCC rebuked AT&T and other carriers several years ago for blocking calls with high-access charges, saying common-carrier telephone companies can't pick and choose which numbers they will patch through and which they will block.

Congress asked the FCC to look into this because they fear "for rural customers".

Bullpoop. They fear the loss of campaign donations and future jobs from parasitic RBOCs now living off interconnect scam leavings.

It's tough for the FCC to stand up to corrupt lawmakers, but this is the Obama era. I'm cautiously optimistic. If Google was accepting donations I'd send 'em money, but for now I'll just write a note of support to my representative. (While I'm at it, I'll ask her to look into the cramming scams and the unblockable receiver-pays SMS scam. Bush/Cheney left the Obama-era FCC with a lot a of poop to shovel.)

The file could not be found: The Decline of OS X

I browse to a file in OS X and try to open it. The app respond "the file could not be found".

I can copy it in the Finder though.

It's all of a piece with the long decline of OS X. As I wrote in 2007

Gordon's Tech: The dumbing down of OS X (and Vista): indirection is too hard

.... MacOS Classic was built by the gods. They tossed it off to mere mortals and then retired to Olympus. OS X isn't all bad, but it's clearly the work of mortals, not gods...

Since then OS X Snow Leopard has regressed to the metadata standards of DOS 2.1. Anyone else notice that shortcuts to files stored on OS X servers no longer work? They used to mount the share and open the file, now you have to mount the server yourself.

Snow Leopard is supposed to be a cleaner, better version of OS X -- but it's had a typically rocky start. Apple's core OS is still in decline.

In retrospect, OS X went to the dark side after Tevanian left.

It's depressing - I don't see any light at the end of this tunnel.

Update 10/10/09: I ask on Apple Discussions for a stress test of OS X networking. Did 10.6 fix anything?

Update 10/10/09b: There's a report that this DOES work in 10.6. I'd given up hope. Now I don't need to think about Windows 7.

The Nobel for defeating the modern GOP

Barack Obama wins the Nobel prize for defeating John McCain, pulling the GOP off the neck of the world, unwinding the Bush/Cheney Torture regime, and restoring hope to humanity.

If there was any doubt about how much the allies of Reason and Civilization fear and despise the modern American GOP, let that be set aside.

Maybe we could give Bush/Cheney the Voldemort Prize.

How to present - the super-short summary

Loyd Eskildson, reviewing a book on Jobsian presentation tips, gives us a very succinct summary ....

Amazon.com: The Presentation Secrets of Steve Jobs: How to Be Insanely Great in Front of Any Audience (9780071636087): Carmine Gallo: Books

1)What is the one big idea you want to leave with your audience? It should be short, memorable, and in subject-verb-object sequence.

2)Identify why you're excited about this company/product/feature, etc.

3)Write out the three messages you want the audience to receive, and develop metaphors and analogies in support.

4)Include a demonstration if your product topic lends itself to such. (Eg. pull the product out of your pocket if it is 'pocket-sized.'

5)Invite partners and customers to participate.

6)Include video clips if helpful, but limit to three minutes or less.

7)Answer the "Why should I care?" that's in the audience's mind. Have a passion for creating a better future.

8)Having an enemy (eg. IBM, Microsoft) helps visualize 'the problem' you're solving.

9)Simplify your presentation (and products).

10)Make numbers meaningful - eg. "Stores 1,000 songs," not "5 GB memory."

11)Don't use 'bullet-point' style visuals; instead, use short phrases that accompany your talk, or pictures.

12)Practice, practice, practice - and ask for feedback.

Thanks Loyd! I can learn a lot from this summary.

Does last year's seasonal flu vaccine make us more susceptible to this year's H1N1?

I've heard quite a bit of noise about this unpublished Canadian study, but an independent blog has the best summary I've read. Emphases mine ...

Is the seasonal flu vaccine associated with H1N1 pandemic influenza? | KevinMD.com

... The Canadian data appear to suggest that people who had been vaccinated against last year’s seasonal flu were about twice as likely as others to catch the pandemic strain when it appeared this spring.

But the CDC said U.S. data do not show a similar risk...

... “We continue to urge people to receive both the seasonal flu vaccine and the 2009 H1N1 vaccine,” Quimby said.

Likewise, an official of the World Health Organization said that investigators in countries other than Canada had not found a similar risk increase when they looked at their own data...

Note they're talking about last year's seasonal flu vaccine, not the vaccine my family received 2-3 weeks ago. I'd have found this more persuasive if they were talking about this year's seasonal flu vaccine.

I'm betting the BC researchers got this one wrong. Keith, I'll bet $10 for donation to a good cause :-).

Nov 20/2009: Later research suggests last year's seasonal flu vaccine protects against this year's H1N1. Looks like my skepticism was justified.

After healthcare reform the cleanup begins

As I'd predicted back in the dark days. Team Obama will pull this off ...

Is health on the way? - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com

.... So the odds now are that the thing hangs together, and reform is indeed enacted this year. It will be a highly flawed product; we’ll probably spend much of the next decade trying to fix it.

But it does look as if it’s going to happen. And that will be a huge victory for progressives...

I disagree with Krugman on one thing. I think we'll be doing very well if we can fix the reform product in only 10 years. Nonetheless, this will be a huge step forward.

Gmail - 5 years, 6 months

I looked up the oldest email I'd sent from Gmail. It was to Andrew on April 25, 2004...

I have a gmail ("beta") account. Don't try to tell me your inner nerd is not jealous.

more later, I just got it ....

It looks like conventional webmail, but far, far snappier (lots of JavaScript). Thus far I've tested on IE. Safari is not supposed to be supported but I'll try anyway.

I've sent 11,722 messages since then.

Google owns me, even though I praise the Data Freedom Front.

That's ok. In the modern world no geek can be Ronin.

I'd joke about getting my Google ID printed on my forehead, but we need a lot more years post 1940.

Verizon to support Google Voice on Android phones

It's good to learn that Google and Verizon are partnering to deliver better Android devices.

That's not surprising though. The surprising bit is the support for Google Voice ...

Verizon, Google Team For Android Devices -- Smartphones -- InformationWeek

... Verizon said its Android devices will come with the Android Market preloaded, and the wireless operator will support Google Voice. Verizon will be preloading some of its apps onto the devices, as well as tailoring the OS to provide a distinctive user experience..."

Doesn't Verizon make money on phone calls and SMS? Why are they going to support GV? I'd like to learn more. On the face of it, a nice kick at AT&T/Apple.

The "preloading" and "tailoring" sound ominous though.

Update: The first go-round I missed the key part of the announcement. The alliance goes beyond Android phones. It's also going to include collaboration on "netbooks". Netbooks, as in Google Chromestellation. Wow.

I'd forgotten what real competition was like. The Apple-Google wars are about to become the Apple/AT&T - Google/Verizon wars - and Microsoft is on the sidelines.

2010 looks to be another interesting year, but this time with some good news for consumers.

The end of the ink jet printer – and the twilight of printing

My old Canon Pixma IP 4000 is sitting in the office lunch room with a “free – take me” note on it. I’m surprised to realize it’s about five years old, which is ancient by ink jet standards.

The printer works as well as it ever did, which means it suffers from the curse of Canon’s OS X printer drivers. Problem is, I almost never used it. I don’t print many photos, and it was a fussy photo printer at the best of times.

So I was paying for unused ink, even though Canon’s system is much less parasitic than the HP equivalent. More than that, I need the space this printer took up.

I have a hunch it will still be in the lunch room tonight, which means it goes to the recycler.

It feels like the era of the ink jet printer is over. I don’t know sales figures, but my bet is they resemble the sales figures for computer mice.

We still use my four year old Brother MFC-7820N (why can Brother more or less do OS X drivers when nobody else can?). There’s still a lot of paper in our life, and I think we’ll be printing gray scale for quite a while yet.

Still, how much more printing will we ever need? Like photo scanners, printers feel like they’ve reached the end of the road. As we get more display surfaces, from iPhone to iTab to giant LCD, there’s less interest and need for relatively dull looking printed color.

Sure, there’s room for improvement in printer/MFC size, noise, and power consumption. MFC class devices need better networking and standalone (no computer) document scanning abilities – basically incorporating more features from high end office devices. Device drivers, operational cost, and hardware reliability can always be improved.

Still, things will be quiet in this world going forward.

Beyond the end of the ink jet, this feels to me like the twilight of the printer.

Vastitas Borealis water ice - did I slip into another universe?

In this space time continuum we see a blurry satellite image and story about Mars Water-Ice Found at Vastitas Borealis.

In the space-time continuum where I wrote this July 2005 blog post there's a dramatic razor sharp image of water ice at Vastitis Borealis ...

So, umm, what happened here? How can I access my other-timeline post from your universe?

It's terribly confusing.

Marek Edelman, Commander in Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, Dies at 90

From his obit ...

Marek Edelman, Commander in Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, Dies at 90 - Obituary (Obit) - NYTimes.com

Marek Edelman, a cardiologist who was the last surviving commander of the 1943 Warsaw ghetto uprising against the Germans, died Friday in Warsaw. He was 90...

... Dr. Edelman was one of a handful of young leaders who in April 1943 led a force of 220 poorly armed young Jewish men and women in a desperate and hopeless struggle against the Germans.

He was 20 when the Germans overran Poland in 1939, and in the months that followed he watched as they turned his Warsaw neighborhood into a ghetto, cutting it off from the rest of the city with brick walls, barbed wire and armed sentries. By early 1942, as many as 500,000 Jews had been herded into the area...

... Then, starting on July 22, 1942, the ghetto population began to shrink ominously. Each day, armed Germans and the Ukrainians serving with them prodded and wedged 5,000 to 6,000 Jews into long trains, which departed from the Umschlagplatz, a square at the southern end of the ghetto. At times they lured people onto the trains with loaves of brown bread...

... On Sept. 8, when according to German records 310,322 Jews had been put on the trains and sent to the death camps and 5,961 more had been murdered inside the ghetto, the liquidation was suspended. There were some 60,000 Jews still in the ghetto. The leaders of the Jewish Combat Organization were certain that the Germans would try to finish the liquidation, and for the next six months the organization planned for armed resistance.

At 4 o’clock on the morning of April 19, 1943, as German soldiers and their Ukrainian, Latvian and Polish henchmen marched through the ghetto to round up people, they came, for the first time, under sustained fire. By midafternoon they were forced to withdraw without having taken a single person.

The fighting continued for three weeks. On one side were 220 ghetto fighters, hungry and relatively untrained youths deployed in 22 units. Each unit had a pistol, five grenades and five homemade bottle bombs. They also had two mines and one submachine gun.

Ranged against them, on a daily average, were 36 German officers and 2,054 others with an arsenal that included 82 machine guns, 135 submachine guns and 1,358 rifles along with armored vehicles, artillery and air power used to set the ghetto ablaze.

Dr. Edelman buried his fallen comrades and used his knowledge of the neighborhood, where he had grown up, to find escape routes for units that were pinned down. Many years later he would say that no one ever established how many Germans they had killed: “Some say 200, some say 30. Does it make a difference?”

“After three weeks,” he recalled, “most of us were dead.”

At the end he found a way out of an encircled position, leading 50 others with him.

Eventually, he took part in the Warsaw uprising of 1944, when for 63 days Poles fought valorously but unsuccessfully to liberate their capital from the Germans.

Once the war ended, he threw himself into his medical studies and became a doctor in Lodz. For 30 years he kept his memories and thoughts about what happened to himself, concentrating on his medical work and becoming one of Poland’s leading heart specialists and the author of a much-used textbook on the treatment of heart attacks.

Even after Poland’s anti-Semitic campaign of 1968, when he was demoted at the hospital and most of the remaining Jews in Poland, including his wife and two children, emigrated, Dr. Edelman stayed. He was unwilling, and perhaps unable, to tear himself away from the place where East European Jewry had once thrived and then perished as he watched...

... Marek Edelman was born on Sept. 19, 1919, the only son of a family that spoke Yiddish at home and Polish at work. His father died when he was very young; his mother, who worked as a secretary at a hospital, died when he was 14. While going to high school he was looked after by his mother’s friends from the hospital...

... Dr. Edelman’s wife, Alina Margolis-Edelman, a pediatrician, died last year in Paris. She had worked as a nurse in the Warsaw ghetto. He is survived by their two children, Aleksander, a biophysicist, and Ania, a chemist, both of Paris, as well as two grandchildren.

The Polish title of the book Mrs. Krall wrote about Dr. Edelman could be translated as “To Finish Before God,” with the implicit idea being one of racing with God. But when the English translation was published by Henry Holt and Company, it was called “Shielding the Flame,” a reference to a passage in which Dr. Edelman explained his philosophy both in the ghetto and later as a doctor.

“God is trying to blow out the candle, and I’m quickly trying to shield the flame, taking advantage of his brief inattention,” he said. “To keep the flame flickering, even if only for a little while longer than he would wish.”

HIs God is not particularly benign.

Every 3 days you have a new heart

Carl Zimmer has the most interesting biology essay I've read in quite a while. Emphases mine ...

Secrets of the Cell - Self-Destructive Behavior in Cells May Hold Key to a Longer Life - Carl Zimmer - NYTimes.com

...lysosomes are versatile garbage disposals. In addition to taking in shrouded material, they can also pull in individual proteins through special portals on their surface. Lysosomes can even extend a mouthlike projection from their membrane and chew off pieces of a cell.

The shredded debris that streams out of the lysosomes is not useless waste. A cell uses the material to build new molecules, gradually recreating itself from old parts. “Every three days, you basically have a new heart,” said Dr. Ana Maria Cuervo, a molecular biologist at Albert Einstein College of Medicine...

...The protection humans get from lysosomes is essential not just during famines. It is also vital just after birth. When babies emerge from their mothers, they need huge amounts of energy so that they can start to run their bodies on their own. But this demand comes at precisely the moment that babies stop getting food through their umbilical cord. Japanese scientists have found that lysosomes in mice kick into high gear as soon as they are born. After a day or two, as they start to nurse, the rate of autophagy drops back to normal.

When the scientists engineered mice so they could not use their lysosomes at birth, the newborn mice almost immediately died of starvation...

... It has long been known, for example, that animals that are put on a strict low-calorie diet can live much longer than animals that eat all they can. Recent research has shown that caloric restriction raises autophagy in animals and keeps it high. The animals seem to be responding to their low-calorie diet by feeding on their own cells, as they do during famines. In the process, their cells may also be clearing away more defective molecules, so that the animals age more slowly...

... Andrea Ballabio, the scientific director of Telethon Institute of Genetics and Medicine in Naples, Italy, and his colleagues have found another way to raise autophagy. By studying the activity of genes that build lysosomes, they discovered that at least 68 of the genes are switched on by a single master protein, known as TFEB.

When Dr. Ballabio and his colleagues engineered cells to make extra TFEB, the cells made more lysosomes. And each of those lysosomes became more efficient. The scientists injected the cells with huntingtin, a protein that clumps to cause the fatal brain disorder Huntington’s disease. The cells did a much better job of destroying the huntingtin than normal cells...

As best I can remember, this is all new since I did med school in the early 80s. Anything that can clear huntingtin is exciting all by itself, no matter how preliminary the research.

Terrific stuff.

The game changing Apple has done

Yesterday I wrote about the software Apple can't do.

So what can they do?

Every so often, they change the game...

1. 1984 - the Mac. Commercial version of GUI, plug and play network, very advanced ideas on files and application metadata (arguably better than what OS X has now), tight hardware/software integration, usability and design focus (again, better then than now).
2. 2001 (not long after 9/11) - the iPod/iTunes/DRM. The trifecta of a portable music player, the iTunes music management and retail distribution system, and, eventually, an approach to DRM that balanced consumer/producer desires.
3. 2007 - the iPhone. Yes, only two years ago. OS X in the pocket, and it's a phone too. The App Store/DRM model creates a massive software industry overnight.

Now we're waiting to hear about the "iTab". There's a lot of comment on what this might be like, but surprisingly little mention of the likelihood that the iTab will bring Apple's Digital Rights Management to printed material (books, magazines, newspapers).

When the technology story of the '00s is written, it may turn out to be all about DRM (or, as we once called it back when we used CopyIIPC to try out new software, "copy protection").