Vinge and Kurzweil on the Singularity

Update: It's Vinge and Doctorow, now Vinge and Kurzweil.

David Brin pointed to KurzweilAI note marketing Vinge and Kurzweil talking to NPR about the 'rapture of the nerds' (aka, the "singularity".

Kurzweil is a brilliant eccentric who seems a bit off-base to me, but I'm quite fond of Vinge's writings [1]. It will be interesting to here what the two of them say when stuck together. I'll have to use Audio Hijack Pro to make this a bookmarkable AAC file for my iPod(s).

If I do get to listen to the show, I'll add some comments here.

[1] Vinge is usually considered the 'father of the Singularity' and he's written the best fiction on the topic, but Greg Bear's original 'Blood Music' short story (not the later novel) was probably the first writer to connect a (squishy) Singularity to the Great Silence.

The crash of Comair 5191: fatigue and economic pressures

Salon's resident pilot-journalist, Patrick Smith, has written the best review of the recent Comair 5191 crash I've seen. This comment is particularly interesting, emphases mine.

What could have happened on Comair 5191 | Salon.com:

... If, on some level, regional flying is 'less safe' than mainline flying -- an academic distinction if ever there was one -- crew fatigue might be something to look at. Having been employed as a captain and first officer at regional carriers for the better part of seven years, I'll attest to the brutality of scheduling: short layovers with no access to food followed by multi-leg days of high-workload flying. Media reports claim the crew of 5191 may have had as little as eight hours break between duty periods, with an early morning check-in just prior to the incident. Tiredness is no excuse for what apparently happened, but I wouldn't be shocked if, months from now when the National Traffic Safety Board completes its dossier, fatigue is listed as a contributing cause."

The airline industry is being squeezed. If schedule-driven fatigue turns out to be a big factor the lesson we'll know the squeeze has gone too far ...

In Our Time: 18th Century Politeness and Reproductive Fitness

Lord Bragg and his guests are in fine form in this episode of the BBC’s In Our Time:

BBC - Radio 4 In Our Time - Politeness

... At the start of the eighteenth century in Britain a new idea stalked the land. Soon it was complete with a philosophy, a literature and even a society devoted to its thrall. The idea was Politeness. It may seem to represent the very opposite now, but at that time, when Queen Anne was on the throne and The Spectator was in the coffee houses, politeness was part of a social revolution.

How did the idea of politeness challenge the accepted norms of behaviour? How did a notion of how to behave affect the great wealth of eighteenth century culture? ...

Ms. Vickery did particularly well in both speaking of the era and demonstrating the conversational gymnastics championed by 18th century politeness. The show is also interesting for what it demonstrates about the biases of English intellectuals. There’s much discussion of literature, memes (they don’t use that word) and history (English civil war), but almost none of demographics (the population was exploding, I don’t know about gender ratios but it was a young nation), economics (growth of market economies), technology (in the absence of radio, people read aloud socially …) and evolutionary psychology (nee sociobiology).

I suspect demographics was and economics were big contributors to this curious and social craze, which we now regard with wistful amusement. I am struck, however, but the reproductive fitness (evolutionary psychology) aspect of 18th century politeness. Excellence at the coffee shop required extraordinary cognitive skills, including both ‘social’ and ‘asocial’ intelligence — and some fine motor performance as well. It’s hard to imagine a better way to test reproductive fitness in that era …

What is Senator Ted Stevens hiding?

A rare bipartisan motherhood and apple pie bill is killed in the senate. The murderer?

TPMmuckraker August 30, 2006 01:59 PM

... A spokesman for Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK) just confirmed his boss was the man behind the secret hold on the Coburn/Obama spending database bill, which has captivated a segment of the political blogging community in recent days. ...

The suspicion, of course, is that Ted Stevens has many things to hide. Shame on Alaska for putting this man in office and keeping him there.

Lifespan is random

I'm very surprised. The data from human and animal studies seems very strong. Lifespan is pretty random and not clearly related to genetics. The article also implies it's not clearly related to behavior either ...

Live Long? Die Young? Answer Isn't Just in Genes - New York Times:

...A woman whose sister lived to be 100 has a 4 percent chance of living that long, Dr. Christensen says. That is better than the 1 percent chance for women in general, but still not very great because the absolute numbers, 1 out of 100 or 4 out of 100, are still so small. For men, the odds are much lower. A man whose sister lived to be 100 has just a 0.4 percent chance of living that long. In comparison, men in general have a 0.1 percent chance of reaching 100.

Those data fit well with animal studies, says Caleb Finch, a researcher on aging at the University of Southern California. Genetically identical animals — from worms to flies to mice — living in the same environments die at different times...

...Matt McGue, a psychology professor at the University of Minnesota who studies twins, contrasts life spans with personality, which, he says, is about 50 percent heritable, or attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, which is 70 to 80 percent heritable, or body weight, which is 70 percent heritable.

“I’ve been in this business for a long while, and life span is probably one of the most weakly heritable traits I’ve ever studied,” Dr. McGue said.

Random. That's weird. Nothing like I'd expected.

Incidentally, ADHD is incredibly hereditable and men don't live that long.

Update 9/1/06: This article continues to puzzle me. Although the researchers note that animal studies show limited hereditability of lifespan, that's not true of dogs. Different breeds have very different lifespans -- from the 4-6 years of Great Danes to the 18+ years of one Australian mid-sized breed. Could it be that we're deceived by the relative genetic homogeneity of humans, who, after all, went through that 10,000 person evolutionary bottleneck less than 200K years ago? They do mention some families do show an exception to this rule ...

One practical implication of the data is that it suggests persons with long lived families should not stint on life insurance policies ... And that life insurers can make a bundle by charging more to persons with short lived families. These folks will pay more for life insurance, thinking that it's more likely to be needed, but in fact their lifespans are not all that predictable.

Update 9/8/06: Still chewing this one over. I think the aging rate/cancer tradeoff plays a role ...

Warren Jeffs, Orrin Hatch, Pedophilia and Fundamentalism: An 50 year old evil is confronted

Today the BBC reported the arrest of Warren Jeffs, a Mormon fundamentalist and alleged pedophile. That led me to dredge up some old memories.

First, an August 2003 posting on Jon Krakauer's excellent book on American religious Fundamentalism (Mormon Fundamentalism in particular, my post also links to a very good Atlantic article on how religions developer from cultic roots)

Secondly, I'll finish a draft blog post from a 2006 LA Times article, probably inspired by Krakauer's book, on the sexual abuse of children by these American Fundamentalists. Note the mention of Jeffs (emphases mine):

Blind Eye to Culture of Abuse - Los Angeles Times

COLORADO CITY, Ariz. — For half a century, while polygamous members of this remote enclave engaged in widespread sexual abuse and child exploitation, government authorities on all levels did little to intervene or protect generations of victims.

Here in the sparsely populated canyon lands straddling Arizona and Utah, members of the Fundamentalist Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, or FLDS — an offshoot of Mormonism — live by their own rules.

The religious sect of about 10,000 portrays itself as an industrious commune of the faithful, choosing to live apart from a hostile world. But their simple lifestyle and self-imposed isolation have concealed troubling secrets that are only beginning to emerge.

Court records, undisclosed investigative reports and interviews by The Times over the last year show that church authorities flout state and federal laws and systematically deny rights and freedoms, especially to women and children.

"The fact that this has been going on all these years, and the fact that justice has not been there to protect women and children … from amazing civil rights violations — it is an embarrassment," said Utah Atty. Gen. Mark Shurtleff.

"I don't want to indict the states of Utah and Arizona, but mea culpa — we are responsible."

Among sect members, girls as young as 13 are forced into marriage, sexual abuse is rampant, rape is covered up and child molesters are shielded by religious authorities and law enforcement.

Boys are thrown out of town, abandoned like unwanted pets by the side of the road and forcibly ostracized from their families to reduce competition among the men for multiple wives.

Children routinely leave school at age 11 or 12 to work at hazardous construction jobs. Boys can be seen piloting dump trucks, backhoes, forklifts and other heavy equipment.

Girls work at home, trying to keep order in enormous families with multiple mothers and dozens of children who often eat in shifts around picnic tables.

Wives are threatened with mental institutions if they fail to "keep sweet," or obedient, for their husbands.

Warren Jeffs, a wiry third-generation church member, is the sect leader — a post that carries the title "prophet" and gives him virtually absolute control over the most intimate conduct.

Jeffs orders marriages, splits up families, evicts residents and exiles whomever he wants with no regard for legal processes. He even tells couples when they can and can't have sex.

But Jeffs is now a fugitive, listed on the FBI's 10 Most Wanted list and accused by state and federal authorities of rape, sexual conduct with a minor, conspiracy and unlawful flight to avoid prosecution. Former members say he continues to exert influence nonetheless...

... Despite years of such stories and allegations, public agencies on both sides of the state line have failed to act or been slow to intervene.

The sect's questionable ways were no secret in Utah or Arizona. Law enforcement, social agencies and politicians long knew that polygamy was practiced and that underage girls were married off to middle-aged and older men.

Employees and eyewitnesses say many underage marriages were performed in Room 15 of the Caliente Hot Springs Motel in Caliente, Nev., a few miles from the Utah border. The motel was once owned by FLDS leader Merril Jessop.

"We've heard about it, and were never able to substantiate it," said Lincoln County, Nev., Sheriff Dahl Bradfield. "But we didn't look very hard."

Officials also knew local laws in Colorado City and adjacent Hildale, Utah, were enforced by polygamous police officers and administered by a polygamous judge — and that police routinely referred alleged sex crimes to church leaders.

In 1953, acting on similar reports, Arizona Gov. J. Howard Pyle launched a massive raid, with about 120 police officers, on the FLDS. It backfired badly, however, and was regarded as a political disaster for Pyle, who lost his bid for reelection.

The political debacle, coupled with a fear of violating the sect's religious freedom, ushered in 50 years of official passivity and government inaction, even in the face of continuing reports of illegal conduct in the FLDS enclave.

The abusive conduct went on for so long, said Buster Johnson, a Mohave County, Ariz., supervisor, "because those with the power to do something about it turned a blind eye. I don't know how they sleep at night."

Recent disclosures have prompted a belated round of state and federal action, including stepped-up efforts by the FBI to arrest Jeffs.

The attorneys general in Arizona and Utah have launched separate legal actions, and a Mohave County criminal investigator operating out of a trailer in Colorado City has provided evidence resulting in a series of grand jury indictments against eight FLDS members...

... Charged with protecting and serving their community, Colorado City police have long had a reputation for protecting and serving church interests instead.

The force, which covers Hildale as well, is reportedly handpicked by FLDS leaders. Call 911 here, say state investigators, and it is the same as calling the FLDS.

Former police employees and state investigators say officers either ignore molestation allegations or send them to the church rather than to outside prosecutors...

... Sen. Orrin G. Hatch (R-Utah) once visited the FLDS church in Hildale and played the organ. He later defended the group when asked about its alleged abuses.

"All I can say is I know people in Hildale who are polygamists who are very fine people. You come and show me the evidence of children being abused there, and I'll get involved," he told local reporters. "Bring the evidence to me."

... In his successful 1991 bid for Arizona governor, Fife Symington wrote an open letter to the residents of Colorado City concerning their "family-oriented lifestyles," vowing never to do anything to "upset or question" their religion.

"Our policy was one of noninterference," he said recently. "The advice I got when running was this was an issue I wanted to stay away from."

The Mormon Church, which banned polygamy in 1890 and excommunicates those who practice it, has been quiet in the face of reported abuses, giving little support to groups trying to help victims of the FLDS.

... On the dusty edge of Colorado City sits a triple-wide trailer grandly named the Arizona-Mohave County Justice Center. The metal building is Arizona's first official presence in this town.

Inside, the handful of state employees includes social workers, a victim's advocate and a gap-toothed ex-cop named Gary Engels.

Engels, an investigator for the Mohave County attorney's office, may be the most effective lawman in the state. He has done in a year what the combined forces of Utah and Arizona did not do during the previous 50 years.

Through quiet detective work, he pieced together enough information for eight indictments of FLDS men who allegedly married underage women.

"He's produced impressive results even given the fact that he has an almost impossible assignment," Arizona Atty. Gen. Terry Goddard said.

Nonetheless, Engels said he saw only slow progress. Child abuse continues, he said, as do underage marriages and exiles of boys — though not so openly since he and the triple-wide came to town.

"I'm just getting started," Engels said.

Thirdly, see my recent comments on the cursed gender.

Men. Fundamentalism. Pedophilia and child abuse. The slow awakening of outrage and response.

Krakauer should get a Pulitzer. Engels may deserve some kind of medal of honor. Senator Orrin Hatch deserves a prize spot in Hell, next door to Jeffs.

Only Christians may govern

KKKatherine Harris, the GOP stalwart who delivered the nation to Bush:

Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: Republican Standard-Bearer Katherine Harris Says: It Is Sinful to Elect Jews and Muslims

...If you are not electing Christians, tried and true, under public scrutiny and pressure, if you're not electing Christians then in essence you are going to legislate sin.

Also, clearly, very sinful to elect atheists, agnostics, Hindus and other satanic heathens.

PS. It is surprisingly hard to get internet access when traveling in the American northeast.

What ails NH? Live by the rules, then die.

In New Hampshire, state law mandates that water slides must be used sitting up.

Seriously.

In New Hampshire, many of the towns we visit have signs saying: "No dogs, no bicycles, no skates".

I have lots of family here, so I'll restrain myself a tad, but, really, this is ridiculous. Commie "nanny" states like Vermont don't have all these repressive rules, but a Libertarian-wannabe like NH does? Talk about falling short of aspirations.

Demographically, NH isn't too atypical. A bit short on children, but average for over 65. I can't blame it ALL on aging boomers. I'd love to hear some theories...

I've said in the past that as a quick gauge of how liveable a place is, one should look at how it treats dogs, bicyclists, and skaters. By that measure NH ranks pretty low, so it's a shame it's so beautiful.

The cursed gender

Pedophiles, like terrorists, convicts, journalists, politicians, and physicians use online resources to amplify their "intelligence" (emphasis mine):

On the Web, Pedophiles Extend Their Reach - New York Times:

... In April, with summer fast approaching, both groups of online friends chatted about jobs at children’s camps. Did anyone, one man asked, know of girls’ camps willing to hire adult males as counselors? Meanwhile, elsewhere in cyberspace, the second group celebrated the news that one of their own had been offered a job leading a boys’ cabin at a sleep-away camp...

...Today, pedophiles go online to seek tips for getting near children — at camps, through foster care, at community gatherings and at countless other events. They swap stories about day-to-day encounters with minors...

I think in most primates adult males are kept away from children. I believe in most human societies that has also been often true.

I bet we will increasingly move to keeping all adult males away from children, with possible exceptions for fathers (I have 3 young children).

It is hard to imagine a long future for my gender, at least not without some substantial genetic re-engineering.

Global Warming: We're scr***d.

The 9/06 Scientific American special issue was about global warming. I haven't finished it, but the take-away so far is that it's feasible to keep CO2 in the human-evolutionary-history range (less than 500 ppm).

I haven't finished it, but the take-away so far is that it's feasible to keep CO2 in the human-evolutionary-history range -- but with near-term technology it would require an unprecedented amount of international cooperation and human vision. It is most unfortunate that while we may be running out of oil, but we have a century of coal to burn.

Greg Mankiw tells us why that cooperation won't happen. The first 50 years or so simply are expected to be not so bad for China or the US -- though I suspect they don't know the moisture distribution effects. Certainly in the Twin Cities, where we're on the leading edge of mainland US climate transition, most people like the almost snowless winters. (I hate them of course, what do you do with the kids!? Besides, I like to ski and skate.)

We will need a blooming technological miracle. Even if the US doesn't do to badly for the first 25 years, I think things change above 500 ppm.

Maybe our quantum-computer heirs will find the planet tolerable ...

Update 9/7/06: Oh, wait, it's worse.

Dell's debacle gets interesting

Dell made its vast fortune by copying other companies, and was famously reluctant to employ R&D people. I think of that when I read about their battery charging design. If this is correct then Dell's problems are only beginning; their legal liability may dwarf the cost of the battery recall.

Good Morning Silicon Valley: Dell Built-To-Order now includes "fire blanket" option:

...Most Japanese makers don't allow high voltage to flow from their AC adapters to the computer battery, out of safety concerns.' Computer maker Lenovo had a similar message: 'Our management software makes sure no such overheating occurs, and we are confident that the computers are safe,' he said. Interesting, eh? Makes you wonder what's going on over in Dell's design department, doesn't it...

OTOH, "management software" is not something I'd trust for device safety ... I do wonder what Apple does ...

Sky bombers: think bench

The dolts and "thin bench" interpretation of the latest busted terrorist (al Qaeda?) plot look more likely (The Register).

The FBI's system malfunction: It's a dead canary

The WaPo has a longish article on the failure of the FBI's major IT product: The FBI's Upgrade That Wasn't. Oddly enough, I have an informed opinion for once -- I do this type of work.

It is not all that alarming that a new custom solution has hundreds of bug reports. I don't know what universe Mr. Azmi comes from, but it's not custom software development. I assure you that Microsoft Word has hundreds of significant bugs and some hideous design flaws -- but of course it's crap. Even Excel, however. has bugs - and it's been in production for about 15 years.

It is alarming that they intended to do a big-bang deployment of what was beta software. Big-bang deployment has advantages, but mostly with relatively proven solutions. (That said, some large health care systems are doing big-bang deployments of Epic's fairly new acute care software and I haven't heard of big flame-outs yet.)

I'm not as alarmed abut the idea to "write from scratch" rather than modify a commercial system. What would they modify? I presume they were using commercial database systems (Oracle probably) and middleware, etc. "Scratch" doesn't mean what it once meant. I fear they might have tried Java on the client -- but they weren't the only company to follow Sun's path to disaster. That flaw can be remedied.

The biggest problem seems to have been that the FBI is said to be a devastated agency, with most of their senior management gone and a very limited IT staff. It sounds, though the article is skimpy here, that the FBI didn't support the analysis process; didn't have the resources or the leadership needed, and the vendor didn't bail from the project. That would create an IT disaster.

So this story is interesting, but primarily as a "dead canary" warning of poisonous gases in the mine. The FBI is either in intensive care or it's now dead. That's a much bigger problem than a failed IT project ...

The end of the family motel - and the family road trip ...

We're on another road trip. This night we end up at the Battle Creek Best Western "executive" hotel.

No luggage carts. Whirlpool out of order. Old, frayed carpets. Prisonlike decor. Weeds in the back parking lot. It's not quite the Bates Motel, but it's heading that way. It's not alone. The night before was an ex-AmericInn where kids weren't allowed in the refrigerated pool before 8am. (Shades of the old south.)

It's been a trend the past few years. Each road trip it's harder to find kid-friendly motels. Reminds me of the disappearing pay phone, now so rare I plan to photograph the next one I see.

What happened? There are lots of kid friendly places -- in resorts, water parks, etc. So it's not a universal disinterest. we're just out of step with the temper of our time. Smaller families can travel by air reasonably cheaply, and few share our anachronistic appreciation of byways and forgotten places (Indiana Dunes: Highly recommended. Don't miss the drive along the Beverly Shores beach -- it's top secret.) There are fewer children anyway, and as our society comes apart there are fewer middle class families who'd choose a road trip over a seaside restort.

We are dinosaurs, Left Behind by the modern world. Soon our habitat will be gone ...

Why Flipper reminds you of Lassie

The Loom : The Origin of the Ridiculous

Whales are beautifully ridiculous...

...Fossil discoveries have documented how coyote-like mammals moved into the water about 45 million years ago and became more and more adapted to the marine life....

So Lassie and Flipper might have had a reasonably proximal common ancestor ...

Evolution is astonishing. I wonder how closely their genes resemble one another now ...

Update: My error, Zimmer goes on to say cows and hippos are the closest terrestrial relatives. Coyote like presumably meant by form and behavior, not genetics. On the other hand a dog by another gene ... (or something like that)..