Peak Oil now? Does Krugman really think so?

In March of this year I wondered if the rise in oil prices were rational speculation or speculative bubble. I decided that six months would be reasonable time to watch for bubble signs ...

Gordon's Notes: Oil price speculation: is it rational investment or a bubble?

... here's my proposal for deciding if Peak Oil is on the way.

If the price of oil craters ($65) in the next 6 months then we're living in an energy bubble today and Peak Oil is more than 10-15 years away.

If the price of oil is above $105 a barrel in August of 2008 then Peak Oil is on the sooner rather than later, and the world I grew up in is shuffling away -- sooner than I'd expected....

I've been thinking that the first onset of true "peak oil" would be due around 2013 to 2018. Since markets think about 5-10 years ahead, peak oil before 2018 would lead to rational speculation. On the other hand, irrational speculation can happen at any time.

What do I mean by rational speculation? I mean not investing in refining capability, since demand constraints might limit return on investment. I mean leaving oil in the ground, since its value will appreciate faster than other forms of investment. I mean looking for new oil, but not drilling new wells. Why drill now, when oil may appreciate in value by 10-14% a year? Oil in the ground, by this reasoning, is worth far more than money in the bank.

Heck, anyone with oil in the ground can just take out low interest loans against the oil, and make money on leveraged investing. No need to drill the messy stuff.

So I figured if Peak Oil is really 5-10 years away we'd see price signals now -- due to rational speculation. If prices stayed up from March to August 2008, that would be a sign that we were seeing rational speculation, thus $300/gallon oil would be on the 5-10 year horizon, and I should make sure my next car gets 50 miles to the gallon.

Incidentally, I assume this is obvious, but I'll mention it anyway. If Peak Oil is really 5-10 years away, then rational speculation and today's price rises are extremely positive developments. We will be far better off with a gradual and prolonged rise, accompanied by relatively gradual behavioral and lifestyle changes, than with a sudden crash.

Rational speculation is the IQ of the market place. Now if rational speculation would only price the externalities of coal appropriately ...

So that's where I stood in March of 2008. I didn't speculate that we might be already seeing a true demand/supply constraint -- the first Peak of the Peak Oil Range.

Paul Krugman, however, seems to be saying exactly that today:

The Oil Nonbubble - Paul Krugman - New York Times

...all through the period of the alleged bubble, inventories have remained at more or less normal levels. This tells us that the rise in oil prices isn’t the result of runaway speculation; it’s the result of fundamental factors, mainly the growing difficulty of finding oil and the rapid growth of emerging economies like China. The rise in oil prices these past few years had to happen to keep demand growth from exceeding supply growth....

...I wouldn’t be shocked if oil prices dip in the near future — although I also take seriously Goldman’s recent warning that the price could go to $200. But let’s drop all the talk about an oil bubble...

I think Krugman has gone too far -- he seems not to consider the possibility that holders of oil and refining capacity might be rationally constraining supply in appropriate anticipation of prolonged 10-20% annual returns on oil reserves.

Even so, it's unsettling to consider that we might be already seeing true demand/supply peaks -- even if they are likely to be wax and wane as we head for Oil-Everest.

I'll stick with my original plan for now. I'll make my own Peak Oil call in August. I will, however, add a third possibility to my original two - rational speculation, speculative bubble, and Peak Oil Now.

Update 5/13/2008: Paul K features a Sydney Herald graphic suggesting other adaptations to consider. I recall hearing (NPR) of one real estate speculator who felt the final straw in his collapse came from rising gas prices reducing interest in a his distant suburban development. Seven years ago I thought terrorism would drive home owners to the suburbs, but that hasn't happened (yet). I guess there's hope for the (now depressed) value of our ideally located St Paul home.

Fake Steve Jobs: Why Dell will not bounce back

FSJ has some of the best IT industry commentary around -- hidden within the amusing facade of a caricature of Apple's Steve Jobs.

Today he's written an unusually detailed analysis of why Dell is not going to recover. He was pretty close to my opinion of Dell's misfortune, but I thought he missed a few nuances. Here's a revised version of the comment I wrote:

The Secret Diary of Steve Jobs: Why Dell will not bounce back

Very well done -- especially since you have to stay in character!

Dell was a parasite on IBM and Compaq's technical innovation. They focused on process innovation.

Nothing wrong with that! It's an excellent strategy -- as long as you understand what you're doing. They didn't. The Dell parasite killed its hosts.

It's bad form for a parasite to kill its hosts. Most biological parasites are much "smarter" than that.

Dell would parasitize Apple if it could, but Apple's hardware value is very closely tied to Apple's OS. Apple does software/hardware unification, and they ain't sharing the hardware. (Apple, incidentally, parasitizes hardware innovation funded by Microsoft's XP/Vista platform. That's what the Intel transition was all about. Happily, Apple knows how to be a responsible parasite. They won't kill the host.)

Dell's other mistake, in addition to failing to understand the duties of a good parasite, was that they flushed their innovators. They ought to have come up with a way to keep fifty or so very smart people happy tinkering in labs, so that when they needed to transition to invention and design innovation they had a core group of loyal innovators to build on.

Instead Dell adopted an aggressive downsizing strategy that maximized returns to process managers, and ignored innovators. Good in the short term, but risky. They could have afforded an insurance policy.

Two big mistakes. I'm not so convinced they can't recover, but it is an uphill battle now.

Microsoft's Guardian Angel

Microsoft's Guardian Angel is yet more proof that our patent laws are completely and utterly insane. As if we needed more proof.

On the other hand, for all of us who have cognitive disabilities now, and the much, much larger numbers who will have them in thirty years, GA is a promising sign - Be the Best You can Be: Microsoft's Guardian Angel patent - a sign of next generation support.

Of course like all technologies it has obvious malign uses as well. That's not a new problem.

What if we could see the diversity of minds?

Humans, to the eye, are not so diverse.

The vast majority have, or once had, four limbs, two eyes, one head. Most rely heavily on vision. Some are faster, some slimmer, some taller -- but not so much. They all have similar genetic aging rates, from old at 50 to old at 80.

But what if you could see minds instead of forms?

Would the average street look something like this?

(MIT geo-biology, burgess shale)

Ok, so pre-Cambrian diversity was pretty extreme. But human brains are actively evolving now. To quote Hawks (via Marginal Revolution):

We are more different genetically from people living 5,000 years ago than they were different from Neanderthals...

Active brain evolution means lots of variation. Most of the variations are mostly marginally harmful, some quite disabling, some both advantageous and problematic. They all mean that brains are less alike than the bodies we see.

The variation doesn't end there. Brains, among other things, run minds. Minds, among other things, run memes.

Brain, mind and meme give three platforms for variation and selection to play on. It's a recipe for combinatorial variation.

So it's plausible, that if we were able to see minds the way we see bodies, we'd find a very entertaining sidewalk. Some pedestrians would be twenty feet all and thin as posts, others ten feet wide with an extra limb and a tail. Some covered in fur, others green and yellow with antennae.

Perhaps, as some of my favorite writers have speculated, one day we'll remake our bodies to fit our minds, and the streets will make today's San Francisco seem quietly uniform.

That's a long way away, and perhaps unlikely. In the meantime, however, we can start imaging minds instead of seeing bodies. With a dash of enlightenment 2.0, we may see the aliens among us, and sense a deeper truth beneath what vision alone can show.

See also: neurodiversity 2004.

Krugman jumps the shark for Hillary?

Paul Krugman has been campaigning for Hillary Clinton. That's ok, there are far worse candidates for the presidency -- McCain for example.

So, I had no problem with his grumpy advice to a seemingly victorious Obama ... until I came to the shark jumping paragraph:

Thinking About November - New York Times:

... One thing the Democrats definitely need to do is give delegates from Florida and Michigan — representatives of citizens who voted in good faith, and whose support the party may well need this November — seats at the convention....

Krugman is the only Democrat I read who advocates the Florida and Michigan delegates be seated. Today's NTY lead editorial put a full seating off-limits, and the Times endorsed Clinton (though they're clearly reconsidering).

Krugman has drunk the Kool-Aid, jumped the shark, and sold his credibility for a pittance. We need an urgent emergency intervention. DeLong must fly east immediately.

Morford on wealth and income - the $2 billion dollar home

Morford of the Chronicle, a master of colorful rhetoric, swings at a very fat pitch ...

You and your puny salary / You think a $100K salary is a lot? $500K? Please. The truly wealthy scoff at your paltry breadcrumbs

... the new home being built in Mumbai right now for Mukesh Ambani, the fifth wealthiest man in the world....

... is the world's first billion-dollar personal residence. Actually, $2 billion. Imagine the fanciest, most ridiculously overpampered, seriously egomaniacal hotel you can possibly think of, and dip it in solid gold. Then sprinkle it with diamonds and Bugatti Veyrons and the fine, tender pelts of a million baby seals. That's the parking garage...

...It all makes delightful contrast to the recent, awkwardly titillating article in this very newspaper that revealed the annual salaries of various Bay Area workers, from the head of the University of California school system ($591K) to the San Francisco police chief ($250K) to all those surprisingly well-paid firefighters (well over $200K), on down to the guy who runs the city's pothole-filling crew (over $100K and absolutely worth every penny because oh my God, potholes), and on back up to one of the pitchers for the Giants, Barry Zito, who rakes in a cool $14 million per season because, well, he's a pro athlete. They're supposed to be caricatures of real humans...

It's a wonderful read, but there's more than entertainment, awe and envy here. We're at a curious point in the history of wealth -- even an infinite amount of money does not buy an enormously better life than an upper-middle class American has.

Power, yeah, sure, money buys power. I'd like some of that power, which I would of course use only for Good.

Other than power though ...

I don't want a yacht. I don't want a plane. I would like to drop twenty years, but money can't buy that. Yet.

Interesting times.

BBC's In Our Time - still available - for now!

[See a significant update below my post. The shows are still available, for now, on the primary IOT site.]

Increasingly, episodes of the BBC's wonderful series, In Our Time, are unavailable after the initial broadcast. Another candle against the Dark has popped off.

Instead of a (sigh) Real Audio link to the episode, the archives show:

BBC - BBC Radio 4 Programmes - In Our Time, The Dissolution of the Monasteries

Sorry, this episode is not available online.

One episode was recently unavailable by podcast as well, due to "copyright reasons". Otherwise the podcast distribution is continuing.

There's been no mention of this policy change in Melvyn Bragg's newsletters, and I can't find any discussion on the BBC website. A Guardian article from last December on the "iPlayer" implementation is the only clue I found to these changes. It may be that the BBC is allowing streaming distribution for UK net traffic, and disallowing it outside the UK. The Guardian article implies that streaming, like podcast distribution, may now be limited to 1 week after initial broadcast.

It seems that what the BBC giveth, the BBC taketh. I think they're making the same sad mistake as the American Academy of Family Practice. The meager revenues they may gain are vastly outweighed by the loss of goodwill, karma, and progress to a better world.

I hope the BBC changes course, at the very least they really ought to have given us more of an explanation. Perhaps they'll start offering episodes through iTunes and like for $1 a pop, DRMd of course. Alas, more likely they'll show up for Microsoft's Zune's alone. Either way, I won't be able to play them back from my car stereo's thumb drive.

I've never had much interest in P2P file sharing, but the pull of the Dark Side grows ever stronger. Damn you, DRM.

Update 4/9/08

Leigh Aspin, the Radio 4 website editor, kindly left a comment ...

I’m the editor of the Radio 4 website and I’m pleased to say that there has been no change of policy – we continue to archive every episode of In Our Time on the Radio 4 website.

The page you’re linking to is on the BBC Programmes BETA site, which doesn’t yet carry programmes beyond 7 days after transmission. In the meantime, please access past In Our Time programmes from http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/history/inourtime/inourtime_current.shtml

A rights issue meant that we couldn’t offer one episode via the podcast feed, as you point out. But we don’t envisage this being a regular occurrence.

Regards, Leigh

I am very happy to hear this news. I am a dedicated IOT fan of course, so the missing shows in the context of the BBC's iPlayer strategy had put me in a bleak mood. I'm particularly pleased to hear that the restricted podcast even is unlikely to be repeated.

Leigh doesn't actually tell us that this 7 day policy will go away once the beta site is live. For now the shows are streaming from the original site, but my recollection is there's much debate within the BBC about monetizing their intellectual property -- especially when it's distributed outside of the UK. The discussion is focusing on video properties, but it's easy for audio works to be caught up in the fight.

From a business perspective it seems perfectly reasonable for non-taxpayers to have limited access to BBC work. Reliable bandwidth and servers are not cheap, and IOT may have more foreign than UK listeners now. From a foreign policy perspective, of course, it would be a rotten move.

I'm hoping that lovers of civilization and Britain's foreign ministry will conspire to keep IOT available to a world audience indefinitely.

The strange ways corporations die: Sprint's Instinct campaign

Sprint is going to spend $100 million to promote their iPhone killer - the Samsung "Instinct".

Details at the link. Briefly, Sprint is doomed.

Makes me wonder if there's a common pattern to the death throes of a publicly traded corporation. Let's assume that most of the thinkers and ethical leaders bail out before the proverbial plane starts its final dive. What you have left then are a bunch of sharp operators, who've fought by tooth and claw to the pilot's seats with the parachutes

These survivors need to do something to do while they pack parachutes and loot the plane. A $100 million ad campaign is just the right distraction.

Somebody ought do a business school case study ...

World in transition: the unicode milestone

Google has graphed the growth of UTF-8 unicode on the web. This year Unicode use passed the extended ASCII used to cover the English language and some European languages. It's growing on a classic exponential curve, all the alternatives are in steep descent.

There are good reasons to use Unicode even with English, but that's not driving this transition. Unicode's growth reflects the use of Hindi, Chinese and other non-european languages on the net.

This graph is another milestone in the post-euro world.

Guantanamo

The survivors who made it out are writing their books.

A Prison of Shame, and It’s Ours - Nicholas Kristoff - New York Times

...When I started writing about Guantánamo several years ago, I thought the inmates might be lying and the Pentagon telling the truth. No doubt some inmates lie, and some surely are terrorists. But over time — and it’s painful to write this — I’ve found the inmates to be more credible than American officials...

One day people named Bush will consider changing their name.

McCain's hole in Sweden

I like Gail Collins.

Indiana Holiday - New York Times

This all started with John McCain, who proposed suspending the 18.4-cent-per-gallon federal gas tax from Memorial Day to Labor Day in order to give regular hard-working Americans “a little relief.” In terms of rational policy-making, this is a little bit like announcing that you want to reduce tensions in the Middle East by drilling an enormous hole in Sweden...

I'm increasingly thinking of McCain as a duller and more craven version of George Bush.

Update: McCain was born in 1936. He's almost 72 years old now. Between his "gas holiday", his "healthcare plan" (walk 30 minutes a day), his "pay for tax cuts by cutting waste", his Sunni/Shiite/Al Qaeda confusions and his forgetting his opposition to torture he's shown that he needs a full neuropsych evaluation as soon as possible.

Reagan was 69 when first elected, and was showing early signs of his dementia by the time he was 73 (the official Alzheimer's diagnosis was announced when he was 83).

We don't need another president with early dementia. McCain should be evaluated now.

Why did Apple open the iPhone to developers?

Did Apple always intend for the iPhone to be a development platform, or were they forced to change their mind?

A well regarded Piper Jaffray analyst thinks Apple was forced to change its mind ...

AppleInsider | Piper Jaffray addresses 15 more 'unanswered Apple questions' [Page 2]

What was the driver for the App Store on the iPhone for 3rd party applications?
The thriving iPhone hacking community adequately showed that there was significant demand for features the iPhone is capable of, but Apple is not offering. Games, instant messaging, and industry-specific applications are several examples of features that the iPhone does not currently offer in a native application setting. We believe Apple recognized that its user base was dissatisfied with the simplified Web 2.0 apps available on the iPhone's web browser; as a result, the company announced the availability of 3rd party applications in March along with the iPhone operating system 2.0, which is on track to arrive in late June.

I'd have phrased this differently. I'd have said that Apple realized that its initial closed plans were going to severely limit market growth, and expose the iPhone to a losing race with a future Google Android. Maybe Apple figured that even among its hard core base, there were people who weren't going to buy an eternally incomplete solution.

Heck, maybe Jobs read my August 2007 demands and, mistakenly assumed I represented a meaningful demographic.

The good news is that they made the SDK move, even if the application environment is oddly reminiscent of the PalmOS, and even though there's still no word of a synchronization API (an odd omission that few seem to have noticed).

Thanks to everyone who didn't buy the iPhone 1.0, especially those of my fellow geeks who complained bitterly and hacked away at iPhone 1.0.

I fully expect to buy iPhone 2.0 (after the official SDK release) -- even if I Apple withholds a synchronization solution. I wouldn't ever buy an iPhone had there not been an SDK, but I now believe that Apple's geek customers will eventually, with great effort and much gnashing of teeth, force a reluctant Apple to publish a synchronization API for the iPhone.

Why Joel Spolsky hates Microsoft Mesh -- and what this says about the peculiar course of software outsourcing

Spolasky thinks the Microsoft Live Mesh idea is dumb, that Microsoft is again trying to solve an insanely hard problem nobody cares about - synchronization. Ray Ozzie rewriting Notes/Agenda/Groove yet again and again. Spolsky makes a great analogy between Mesh and the nigh-incomprehensible Hailstorm.

Personally, I care a lot about synchronization and I believe it's a deeply hard problem. In addition to my personal PIM sync obsessions, synchronization technologies have a huge potential impact on healthcare interoperability. So I think Spolsky has a some good (albeit cruel) points about Architecture astronauts, but he's possibly undervaluing the synchronization problem.

On the other hand, his comments about Google and Microsoft's brain drain is really interesting ...

Architecture astronauts take over - Joel on Software

... Why I really care is that Microsoft is vacuuming up way too many programmers. Between Microsoft, with their shady recruiters making unethical exploding offers to unsuspecting college students, and Google (you're on my radar) paying untenable salaries to kids with more ultimate frisbee experience than Python, whose main job will be to play foosball in the googleplex and walk around trying to get someone...anyone...to come see the demo code they've just written with their "20% time," doing some kind of, let me guess, cloud-based synchronization... between Microsoft and Google the starting salary for a smart CS grad is inching dangerously close to six figures and these smart kids, the cream of our universities, are working on hopeless and useless architecture astronomy because these companies are like cancers, driven to grow at all cost, even though they can't think of a single useful thing to build for us, but they need another 3000-4000 comp sci grads next week. And dammit foosball doesn't play itself.

Whoa. Only a few years ago American software engineers were a doomed breed; all software design and invention would be outsourced. Now we read that starting salaries for novice, albeit very smart, CS grads are putting a crimp in Spolsky's business plans.

This fits with what I see in my corner of the industry. There's a new appreciation for the value of really smart people, and personnel costs are about to take an unexpected turn in the midst of a recession.

Outsourcing is taking a strange and unpredicted course.

Update 5/20/08: Microsoft Mesh sounds a lot like Microsoft FeedSync. Turns out FeedSync is an element of Mesh, which makes Mesh seem like a Microsoft marketing concept rather than a product concept. That's never happened before ... (joke)

Detecting weapons grade uranium: give up

Twice in the past 7 years, ABC news has smuggled depleted uranium, with a radioactivity signature comparable to highly enriched uranium (HEU), into the US. Despite packaging and address data designed to ensure maximal screening, the mild radioactivity was not detected.

HEU, like depleted uranium, is just not all that radioactive.

ABC received technical support from two scientists, one of whom was transiently assigned to a Homeland Security watch list as punishment for embarrassing the Bush administration. Last month the two published an article on the detection of smuggled HEU ...

Detecting Nuclear Smuggling: Scientific American

• Existing radiation portal monitors, as well as new advanced spectroscopic portal machines, cannot reliably detect weapons-grade uranium hidden inside shipping containers. They also set off far too many false alarms.
• So-called active detectors might perform better, but they are several years off and are very expensive.
• The U.S. should spend more resources rounding up nuclear smugglers, securing highly enriched uranium that is now scattered overseas, and blending down this material to low-enriched uranium, which cannot be fashioned into a bomb.

In addition to the above synopsis, the author's point out that it's fairly trivial with modern HEU to create a nuclear weapon. (The online version of the article includes a plaintive editor's note claiming all the information in the article is available from public sources.)

The NYT wrote about the detector program last March. The detectors are great at producing false alarms, it turns out that we live in fairly radioactive world*. Problem is, the best research tells us they're really lousy at finding minimally shielded weapons grade uranium.

It's reasonable to invest in better detectors, but the current generation are security theater with a high cost in false alarms. We should be focusing our efforts on restricting leakage of HEU from Russia and other sources. We won't get that kind of intelligent response from Bush or McCain, so all we can hope is that someone else wins the presidency.

On the other hand, I remain puzzled that five years after many experts agreed it was inevitable, we haven't seen nuclear terrorism in the US. It's not the detectors, and most reports indicate we're not doing enough to slow the HEU trade, so what's up?
--
* Good thing that current medical research suggests we're more radiation resistant than we thought we were. Our DNA repair systems do relatively well with radiation.

Sometimes a 2nd chance works - convicts in the army

People with a criminal record have a hard time finding work, but recently recruiting problems have created military opportunities.

The good news is a study of ex-felons finds many of them can succeed as soldiers ...

The Few, the Proud, the Bad - Intel Dump -

...The study looks at the performance of soldiers who entered the Army with waivers for prior criminal convictions, no high school diploma or other reasons. In a nutshell, these soldiers get into slightly more trouble, but assuming they make it through basic training and avoid major trouble, they're more likely to be better soldiers...

This is the proverbial silver lining in a pretty dark cloud.