The three meanings of peak light sweet oil and praise for rational speculation

I'm sticking with my March declaration that I'd make my call on "peak sweet" August 1st.

It's still too soon for a non-insider to judge. We can only distinguish psychological speculation (a bubble) from concrete speculation (expectation of demand/supply constraint) by how long it lasts.

Still, Peak Oil of one sort or another is an increasingly popular meme. So I thought it might be worth pointing out that, even if we speak only of "sweet crude", that there are three sorts of Peak:

1. Absolute: someday, even with magical technologies, we will have extracted more than 50% of the "sweet crude" on earth. This is kind of irrelevant, since before then we might be using vacuum energy (joke) rather than oil. Or we might be huddling in caves, and not need much oil. Or we might be extinct. So this is uninteresting.
2. Market: Demand exceeds supply until prices rise to increase supply and reduce demand.
3. Market predictive: Rational expectation that #2 will occur within a meaningful timeline (5-10 years).

Speculation about the timing of #2 is the foundation for "market predictive peak sweet". This kind of speculation is the brains of the market; eliminating it would be like using a frontal lobotomy to simplify a difficult decision.

Eliminating the "psychological speculation" (bubble) would be like getting a alcoholic on the wagon. That would be a good thing, but hard to do.

My August call will be about whether we're in the "Market predictive" variety of Peak Sweet Oil.

PS. It always bears repeating that Peak Sweet is a disaster for global climate, since in the absence of a wicked carbon tax we'll burn coal like there's no tomorrow. Which there might not be, at least for our civilization.

CH's guide to the ultimate office chair.

Coding Horror: Investing in a Quality Programming Chair is a classically over-analyzed CH post.

I am in the market for a 1st rate office chair, so I'll be following this advice.

The acceleration of corporate senescence: Microsoft and Google

A few days ago I noted Cringely's summary of Microsoft's fallen state. Today I posted on how NYT makes Balmer's day - Google's mortal nature.

Neither Google nor Microsoft are as decrepit as GE, much less GM. Microsoft will print money for decades, and Google is still delivering tools I love to use. 

And yet ...

Twenty years ago Microsoft was a fierce competitor. Ten years ago they were the Naked Plains Ape of their world, exterminating every possible competitor. Now they're doddering.

Ten years ago Google was an explosive phenomena. Now they show a combination of the vices of private and publicly held companies of a far greater age.

Are these corporations aging far faster than their predecessors? Does hyper-growth equate to accelerated senescence for publicly traded companies?

Carr's annoying Atlantic article on Google's mind perversion

The Atlantic delays online publication of articles by a month or so. 

It's a hoary tradition in print magazines, but it really breaks the blogging model. 

So I was going to wait until Nicholas Carr's article was online before commenting on it, but his latest post forced my hand: Nicholas Carr's Blog: More food for thought. 

Basically Carr says that Google and the Net have rotted our minds, turning us into bovine grazers of grassy irrelevances rather than the taut hunters of elusive game we used to be. Dozens of worthies have written to agree that they can no longer handle anything longer than a screen's worth of text. Doris Lessing would be pleased. 

Bah. This "new stuff rots the mind" meme has been sure-fire best seller since the discovery of fire, but it's boring and superficial.

Sure, search and retrieval will change the way we think over the next hundred years or until the Singularity (whichever comes first), but I don't buy the "rots the mind" meme.

My equally well researched opinion is that I am as able as ever to read a novel I like, or even a non-fiction book I like, but I have no patience for flab. 

I always found it hard to work through the "pad-the-word-count" faux-suspense fat of a NYT Magazine article, but now it's flat out impossible. I want the author to "get to the point", and then move on to new stuff. If they have tons to teach me then write for pages, if not, then say it in 3 paragraphs. 

That's not the same as becoming a bovine grazer. It's more like becoming a faster, stronger carnivore who wants tastier prey and more of it.

What my blogs are for: memory management and the Google-Gordon geek-mind fusion

[Firefox 3 and Blogger are wreaking havoc on my posts, so I'm now using Safari 3 and Blogger-In-Draft. The original version of this post was messed up.]

I used to think I wrote my blogs as a way to exercise my mind, get my feedback fix, and plant covert memes in the emergent Googlian metamind. Last year I wrote:

...my ... blogs are written for these audiences in this order:

1. Myself. It’s how I learn and think.
2. The GoogleMind: building inferential links for search and reflection.
3. Tech blog: Future readers who find my posts useful to solve a problem they have that I've solved for myself. [I try reasonably hard not to contaminate this blog with too much of my personal speculation or political opinions.]
4. Gordon's Notes: My grandchildren, so I can say I didn't remain silent -- and my tiny audience of regular readers, not least my wife... [Full of opinion, and this is about meme injection]

I still think that's true, but I realize that the #1 item on the list is evolving, and merging with #2.

This is a theme I want to explore more, but it's bigger than one post.

It's an extension of my ancient interests in Personal Information Management (ahh, fond memories of the "PIM-L" email list I ran), my 1997 "Snippets" project, and Xanadu stuff, now built on my increasing experience with full text search of personal corporate multi-gigabyte text archives.

I'm calling this "memory management" for now, and I've added a new tag to my Blogger "label" collection to track this. Memory management includes:

• My private personal (John ****) memory management: tagging, hierarchical organization, cyclic graph links and full text search of my personal and family datasests.
• My public personal (John Gordon) memory management: full-text indexed, tagged, and linked posts (more on the missing backlinks below)
• My private corporate memory management: memory of mine that's legally owned by my employer, and by law stays with them.
• My semi-public corporate memory management: limited to my writing and posting that's visible only within the corporation.

The technology of memory management becomes increasingly important because of two currently irrestible trends:

1. My experience grows far beyond the ability of my aging brain to contain it all
2. My declining cognitive faculties make my productivity more dependent on past knowledge and experience. (I'm older than 25. If you're older than 25 your primary processing faculties are also declinining.)

There's more to come here and in my tech blog about the technical progress on this agend and how this relates to the blogs, but I'll end here with excerpts from a recent Gordon's Tech post. I really want Blogger to resuscitate there moribund "backlinks" feature by making backlinks robust for whitelisted URLs:

Gordon's Tech: My new number one Blogger request: fix backlinks with whitelisted URLs

I've created a new category called "memory management" that will expand this idea, both here and in Gordon's Notes....

... "Memory management" involves personal memory management and corporate memory management, private memory management and public memory management, and an early ... version of gordon-google mind-fusion (one decaying, one growing)....

....Which brings me to my new #1 Blogger request. Fix the backlinks...

... the original purpose of backlinks collapsed due to fraud, webspam attacks, and search engine optimization.

Google has given up on them for all but very high end blogs, and one of their defenses has been to block backlinks within blog domains (to reduce search engine optimization and link farm fraud)....

... but backlinks are an aspect of what we used to call "backward chaining" in inferencing systems. In people-speak they allow one to explore semantic connections (insert obligatory semantic network, xanadu, memex, etc reference) to antecedent or precedent posts.

This capability is a strategic component of my personal memory management obsession.

So I want Blogger to create a new sort of backlink -- to posts that are within domains that I specify. I would create a set of whitelisted urls for my blogger account, and links from those urls to a specific posts would always become backlinks. I could remove them if I wished of course.

To avoid linkfarm abuse Google would exclude this type of backlink from their value estimation algorithms...

... As of first posting a search on "URL backlink whitelist" returns no meaningful hits. I wonder when that will change...

NYT makes Balmer's day - Google's mortal nature

Readers of Fake Steve Jobs read murmurings of Google's mortal nature, mostly about flaws of the founders and the usual effects of vast wealth on young fonders.

Today the NYT brings a smile to Balmer's (Microsoft CEO) day ...

Talking Business - On Day Care, Google Makes a Rare Fumble - NYTimes.com

... From November to April, Google’s once high-flying stock dropped 44 percent, to $412 from $744. (It has since gained some of that back, closing on Thursday at $537.)...

...Ms. Wojcicki is a figure of significant stature at Google; hers was the garage that Mr. Brin and Google’s other founder, Larry Page, rented while starting up Google. Today she is the company’s vice president for product measurement, though as I discovered in talking to unhappy Google parents this week, not many Googlers seem to know what her exact duties entail. Everybody, however, knows that she’s Mr.Brin’s sister-in-law...

Oops.

Cringely on fraud and the net - vs. Charles Stross and the Golden Age of Fraud

Cringely refinanced online last year, but unlike most mortgage scam victims he actually read the materials ..

I, Cringely . The Pulpit . Independence Day | PBS

...From where did that number come? It certainly never came from me. Since my signature would be at the bottom of this application I wanted to make sure everything was correct, so I called the mortgage broker. For the first time we spoke. She was a very nice lady, too, and explained that number was the variable required for all the ratios to be correct so I could qualify for the loan.

"But it isn't true," I said.

"Do you want the loan or not?" she asked.

Not.

I wasn't so principled as cowardly, but maybe that doesn't matter: I did what I knew was the right thing for me, which was to walk away from the loan. But evidently a lot of other people took the other course and today are having trouble paying for their houses, which is a big part of the reason why we are in this current economic mess...

Cringely tries to connect net-based disintermediation with the general problem of deceptive products, but he manages to mention "fraud" only in passing and he never connects the phenomena with the fall of brands, reputation management, fake dog food and pithed Americans, the libertarian transformation of American culture, and the exploitation of the weak.

He does get points for mentioning eBay and PayPal, which I'm betting are hiding a very ugly can of worms, and for being old enough to remember when the net was supposed to enable transparency and informed consumers. Hoo boy, did that not work!

So, only a C+ effort today, but at least he's thinking the right thoughts.

In a related vein, Charles Stross has a project brewing on the Golden Age of Fraud, including a $242 million Nigerian 401 scam. I hope Cringely gives us a review when the Stross book is out.

On the Internet everyone knows you're a dog

In the very early days of the web, anonymity was the default. You had to do things to reveal your identity. This led to a famous 1993 New Yorker Cartoon, captioned: "On the Internet, Nobody Knows You're a Dog".

That lasted about as long as the first cookie.

Now, everyone knows you're a dog. They know your breed, your taste in poodles, your favorite food, where you buried your bones, and the fact that you have a shameful chewing habit.

There are no secrets on the net. Analog information was a solid, it moved with difficulty. Digital information is a gas, it expands to fill any opening. I pontificated about this to my informatics classmates in the early 90s, but it soon became apparent the cause was lost.

Nobody seemed to care. Now we understand Humans are programmed to ignore privacy considerations. Our natural state is to forget that people observe and remember what we do. We can imagine that we developed this trait as a way to stay sane in very crowded ancestral living conditions, but we don't know why it is.

Maybe Gen Y will understand this, but Gen X and the Boomers mostly don't.

So people are shocked to read about stories like Google must surrender YouTube viewer records. Including those XXX videos you've been enjoying, the movies you've been illegally consuming, and those videos that Cheney really hates. Sure this sort of thing happens every few months, but net users are programmed to forget.

Try to remember. There is no easy privacy on the net. Only the most technically competent can get some measure of privacy, and it will come with a constantly annoying cost. If someone with power cares enough, it will be penetrated.

On the other hand, there is a peculiar sort of forgetfulness. I used to write my blogs using my birth name. This led to some odd interactions with corporate executives who'd googled on my name. I changed the title of the blog, moved to URL to a custom domain, and now, if you Google on my "true name" you'll have to look very hard to find a reference to the blogs.

There's hope for those Facebook teens after all.

Try to remember the bit about no privacy though. It's gone, and it ain't coming back.

Rove and the Swifties are back -- and the media is still their toy

Krugman marks the event. Rove and the Swifties are back, with or without Rove the man. They serve John McCain, aka Bush III -- aided mightily by a dying, desperate, media engine:

Op-Ed Columnist - Rove’s Third Term - Op-Ed - NYTimes.com

... It was predictable that the McCain campaign would go wild over the Clark remarks. Mr. McCain’s run for the White House has always been based on persona rather than policy: he doesn’t have ideas that voters agree with, but he does have an inspiring life story — which, contrary to the myth of the modest maverick, he talks about all the time. The suggestion that this life story isn’t relevant to his quest for office was bound to provoke a violent reaction.

But the McCain campaign went beyond condemning General Clark’s remarks; it went out of its way to distort them. “This backhanded slap against John as not being a worthy warrior because he just got shot down is one of the more surprising insults in my military history,” said retired Col. Bud Day, who participated in a conference call organized by the campaign. In fact, General Clark had said no such thing.

The irony, not lost on Democrats, is that Col. Day himself has done what he falsely accused Wesley Clark of doing: he appeared in the 2004 Swift boat ads that impugned John Kerry’s wartime service...

I once wrote that McCain was the least bad of the 2008 GOP slate. That might still be true, but it's like saying that a rabid fox isn't quite as bad as a rabid wolf.

McCain is bad news, because of the party he represents, because he's repudiated almost everything honorable he's ever said (signing on for the torture policies) and because he'll be another Rovian pawn.

I don't love Barack Obama. Anyone capable of winning in modern American politics has to be an egomaniacal loon with sociopathic tendencies. That's who Americans want. Doesn't matter. Obama is light years better than McCain.

The real problem, of course, is that the media is still playing along with Rove and the Swifties. They're playing along because they're drowning and grasping for straws, and the public hasn't rejected these ploys.

It's the 4th of July today. A good time to remember that we are still in a democracy, and that the American people need to stop falling for media ploys, so the desperate media will raise their own game.

Cringely on Bill Gates’ retirement

Cringely’s summary of Gates’ legacy is the best I’ve seen, his June 2006 column is also worth re-reading. I think he should have mentioned Gates decision to shoot OS/2, he does mention Gates correct assassination of the ambitious pre-Internet MSN. Gates was good at shooting a bad horse, but that talent faltered with Vista. He couldn't shoot it.

I think Gates enormous worldwide productivity loss by creating a destructive monopoly that stifled innovation and destroyed better alternatives. It’s not a great legacy. On the other hand, there’s Microsoft Excel. Of course Steve Jobs, given the same power, would have been much worse.
Cringely ends with a very personal statement …

So have a happy retirement, Bill. I hope you save the world and win that Nobel Peace Prize. And while you're at it, please throw a little money into SIDS research, eh?

Cringely lost a son to SIDS.

How to construct an emergency custom back support car seat for under $20

Imagine that you have been lying flat in the back of a van for almost 3 days.

True, your back is healing. On the other hand even a small head-on collision will fracture your neck, it's very uncomfortable, the ceiling is exceedingly dull, and the dog is smelly:

Clearly, inspiration is needed.

Experimentation shows that any time spent in a conventional car seat is a painful trip to acute muscle spasm. On the other hand, maintenance of exaggerated lumbar lordosis (curvature of lower back) and neck extension is well tolerated.

How can one transform a conventional bucket car seat into something that will support an upright posture for 1,500 miles of driving over about 8 hours a day for two days?

Well, it has been done. In fact, while sitting in my custom rig I healed more quickly than when lying flat on the rather uncomfortable van floor.

The total cost for the rig would be about $25. Since I already had the freezer insert and the neoprene wrap it cost me about $8 for the Walmart mini-boogie board [3]. (See photo below, it's about 24" tall.)

1. I adjusted the seat so that it was as close to a right angle as possible, with the base as flat as possible.


2. I placed the foam boogie board along the seat back to create a non-yielding seat back.


3. I removed the seat's neck protector as I found I needed more neck extension than the seat headrest allowed [2]


4. I inserted the 1" thick red hard plastic frozen picnic cooler [1] into the neoprene wrap and fitted it so the plastic spacer was either in the middle of my lumbar curve or just below the curve. This created a fixed exaggerated super-cooled [1] lumbar curve.


5. Every 2-3 hours we stopped the car. I walked until I'd loosened up, then attached my inline skates (I figured out how to do this while keeping my lordosis extended) and skated for 10-15 minutes with Kateva to keep the back as limber as possible.

And so I drove for two days. I was very careful to enter and exit laterally, so at no time did I reverse my lumbar lordosis.

When we finally arrived home, I exited without pain. I even fell a step at the neighbors and my back survived.

Next week I have my first appointment for back care in over 27 years of 1-2 times/year severe disabling acute back pain. It's time for me to get a serious lifelong exercise program in place so I don't have to do this one again.

I will be using my custom back support for a few days however, and when we do our next car trip I'll put the boogie board somewhere. The kids can use it in the pool anyway ...

[1] This is medically illegal. It will cause you to develop frostbite, skin and muscle necrosis, toxic shock and you will die. You should use a non-frozen item of similar size and shape.

[2] This will cause you to fracture your neck in a car accident. You will be paralyzed and on a ventilator, then you will die a slow death that will bankrupt your family.

[3] I wandered the aisles waiting for inspiration to strike, looking for something that would provide firm but lightweight back support. High impact styrofoam in a fabric cover was perfect. I just happened to set eyes on the mini-boogie board ...
PS. There's a bit of irony here. I first wrecked my back 27 years ago boogie-boarding with a full-sized board in Southern California. Maybe that's why I really chose this fix.

Update 7/7/08: I received a post skeptical of my enthusiasm for cold therapy vs. hot packs. I followed up with my new team at Physicians Neck and Back Clinics (profiled in the New Yorker in April 2002, they represent the "new wave" approach of aggressive exercise based rehab). They never use heat or hot packs. They use only cold therapy, though for them strength and flexibility are 90% of the solution. I suspect hot packs can be very helpful for some, but they're really out of fashion. I've only ever bothered with cryotherapy.

Update 3/4/09: I'm going to write a bit more on this topic in July of 2009, when I'm a year post event. I've done well for long enough though that I'm a cautious fan of the extreme core strengthening approach of Physicians Neck and Back Clinics. It might be overkill, but I wouldn't be surprised if it turns out to be about the right balance.

Update 8/1/10: I did the f/u post in Nov 2009, but forgot to backlink it here.

The mysterious bicycle path of Rochelle Illinois

Google chose our route from New Hampshire to Minneapolis.

I like to think it chose the route to minimize construction delays, but to get past Chicago we used Google traffic maps time snapshots to spot the route that had the least stop zones as of 3 pm yesterday. The Chicago route more or less worked -- Google inexplicably missed a big construction project on route 88 west to Rochelle. Even so, it was our fastest Chicago transit ever.

As usual we stopped in Rochelle, Illinois, a railway crossroad town that survives because it's a highway crossroad town now. (In a related vein I've a post-pending on ultra-wealthy Chicagoland and the devastated Erie Canal strip, probably with an Obama comment). My back recovery program (post pending on my patent-pending seat optimization rig that got me off the floor) meant that this time Kateva and I had to inline skate Rochelle (ok, so she has never mastered skating)...

Rochelle, Illinois - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Rochelle is known as the "Hub City" because of its location at the intersection of several major transportation routes. The first transcontinental highway in the United States, the Lincoln Highway, passed through Rochelle, as did US-51, one the first highways to go the full north-south length of the United States. Both these roads have diminished in importance (and are now state highways 38 and 251, respectively), but Rochelle continues to be crossed by major highways, especially Interstates 88 and 39...

Rochelle is not a wealthy town, but it's proud of its park district, and a mysterious bicycle path. I skated and drove around the town and couldn't spot the bike path, but a satellite shot tells the tale:

 

View Larger Map

Yeah, that's the path. About 300 yards or so. It does look nice though. Funny thing -- there are signs throughout town referring to the path, but when you finally find it, there are no more signs. I guess someone had mixed feelings about advertising it.

Update 8/14/08: See comments. Technically, the path is 4.1 miles long! It continues on from this park path onto what I think are city streets. I couldn't find any signs during my reconnaissance, so I missed the extension. I remember some of them as pretty busy streets -- so if the path is really not segregated from traffic it's not for youngsters. More than 300 yards anyway!

My iPhone purchase strategy looks like a really bad bet ...

About a year ago my wife needed a smartphone to replace the excellent Samsung Palm i500. I figured we'd switch to AT&T so I'd be ready for iPhone 2.0, and get her a BlackBerry Pearl. In the meantime I'd get rid of my hated Motorola RAZR and live with a generic cheap Nokia.

I should have just bought iPhone 1.0, because I'm going to get hit with the unsubsidized price AND the increased monthly data rate:

AT&T's official iPhone 3G pricing/plans: $199 to $499 ... Although AT&T continues to be vague on exactly what it means to be 'eligible' (a spokesperson said that, among other factors, it depends on where a customer is in his or her contract), the company does tell us that if you're not eligible, you can still buy the iPhone 3G for $399 and $499 for the 8GB and 16GB models respectively. Unfortunately, these bumped-up prices still require a two-year service agreement, so this is pretty much the worst end of the stick if you're a prospective iPhone customer...

I'll try to sort this out with the AT&T outlet near my office, but we already know AT&T uses price complexity as a weapon.

I'm in line for a $500+ total charge from AT&T compared to a customer switching today from Spring.

More when I get the full story. I knew I was dealing with Satan when I signed.

Update: This is such a raw deal I might be better off ordering iPhone 1.0 prior to July 11, then maybe transferring it in future.

Update 7/1/08: From Tidbits:

The current 2G iPhone plans will continue to be available for people who want to start up new service plans with someone's old phone. That means that instead of the $30 per month for unlimited 3G data required for the iPhone 3G, plus a minimum of $5 per month for 200 incoming and outgoing text messages, a 2G iPhone buyer or gift recipient can pay $20 per month for unlimited EDGE and 200 text messages. The original GoPhone prepaid option is also available, which costs $20 per month for unlimited EDGE data, but does not include text messages...

...Also today, AT&T clarified who qualifies for a subsidized iPhone, and how much a contract-fee iPhone will cost. If you are in the middle of a contract period with any handset but an iPhone, you don't qualify; that's also true if your account isn't in good standing. Users who meet that bill pay $400 (8 GB) or $500 (16 GB). No-contract iPhone 3Gs won't be available at launch, but when that option comes around, it will cost $600 (8 GB) and $700 (16 GB). (At least one site has pointed out that buying an iPhone 3G, keeping the plan for over 30 days, and then canceling service and paying the early-termination fee is much cheaper. AT&T may offer a wrinkle there to prevent this.)...

So, what about existing AT&T customers who buy a used iPhone 1.0? Do we get the old plan too? Probably not, but I wonder about buying under the old contract with a used iPhone, then buying a new iPhone with their special iPhone upgrade contract deal then selling the used iPhone again. Nahhh..

Missing iPhone cut, copy, paste lost in patent wars?

The Palm is dead. The Blackberry deserves to die.

So I'm ready for the iPhone, even if it's missing critical features.

Except...

How the #$!$# can I live without cut, copy and paste? The Palm has that. Every machine I've used in decades had it. It's absurd that there's still no CCP in iPhone 2.

So why?

I don't believe it's that hard to do. Good enough is a lot better than nothing.

So why?

One clue is a patent application from months ago:

Apple Depicts Advanced Multitouch Gesturing Control Panel in Mac OS X - Mac Forums

...editing operations such as Copy, Cut, Paste, Undo, Select All, Tab, and Cancel using gestures based on your Thumb and Two Fingers...

Could CCP be tied up in a patent battle somewhere? Is that why Apple won't show it?

Anyone have another theory? I'm all eyes.

It's scary insane not to have this functionality yet ...

Silence a dripping hotel faucet with a towel

I was surprised I didn't find this one in a quick search: dripping towel silence - Google Search.

Dripping hotel tap keeping you awake?

Tie a towel to the faucet. The water tracks down the towel silently. In the morning, mention on checkout why there's a towel on the faucet.